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Inflation in Venezuela: The Case for No Single CauseRodriguez, Florangel 12 1900 (has links)
The study was designed to examine the causal relationship between the Venezuelan inflation and the monetarist variables--money supply--and the structuralist variables-- exchange rate and balance of payments. The data (1964-1982) was gathered from the International Financial Statistic Yearbook, 1983 and the Statistical Yearbook, 1974, 1982. Chapter I is an introduction to the research problem. Chapter II does a review of the related literature. Chapter III deals with the methods and procedures for treating the data. Chapter IV presents an statistical analysis of the data. And, Chapter V contains a summary of the study and its findings, conclusions and recommendations. The study only found a significant relationship between inflation and the monetarist variables money supply and GNP, though supporting the monetarist theory. A similar investigation is suggested, but selecting a longer time period, other.variables, and more refined methodologies and analysis.
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Die wêreldekonomie se bydrae tot onstabiliteit in die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie via inflasie09 February 2015 (has links)
M.Com. (Economics) / The purpose of this dissertation was to investigate the contribution of the world economy to instability in the South African economy via inflation. Double digit inflation in the South African economy remains the most important and' sole major problem influencing stabilization policy in the country. This study concentrated on the instability of the economic growth path in South Africa since the recession period of 1976. From a multiplier-accelerator model the conclusion is reached that two of the main endogenous variables in the economy, namely private consumption and total investment have adapted to behaviour patterns since 1977, in such a way that an economic growth path which deviates monotonically from the equilibrium paths has been guaranteed. The. reason for this is found in the values of two main coefficients namely the propensity to consume and the propensity to invest. The openness of the South African economy is an exogenous threat to stability in the South African economy if a high inflation rate persists.
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The impact of market volatility on economic performance17 August 2012 (has links)
M.Comm. / The aim of this study is to discuss, analyse and forecast market volatility. Financial liberalisation and technological innovation have taken place during the past twenty-five years, producing a highly integrated and competitive world financial system in which trillions of dollars are traded every day (Murray, van Norden & Vigfusson, 1996:1). These developments have been positive, but there are concerns about the problems that such unregulated capital flows might pose for the efficient pricing of financial assets and the stability of domestic and international financial markets. Speculation has increased and greater competition, information technology and new securities lead to excessive price volatility. Stocks, bonds and foreign exchange are more sensitive to sudden shocks and trade at prices that appear inconsistent with market fundamentals. It is important to point out the causes of market volatility in order to determine if any precautions can be taken to prevent the enormous impact of market volatility on economic performance. The study could be useful for investors and dealers. It might enable them to forecast volatility and use it as a risk management instrument.
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An empirical study on the determinants of the Phillips curve for South Africa17 August 2012 (has links)
M.Comm. / The aim of this dissertation is to undertake an empirical study of the determinants of the Phillips curve for South Africa (SA). The work will be concentrated on the relationship between inflation (or wage inflation) and unemployment in SA from 1980 to 1998 with a particular focus on the behaviour of the Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). Given the importance of the NAIRU in formulating monetary policy, it will be therfore be appropriate to analysed this parameter. The NAIRU tends to perform differently in the face of price and wage inflation and therefore it has been found wise to divide the model into two categories. Price/unemployment model. Wage/unemployment model. The first model will be referred to as the Price-Phillips curve where as the second will usually be referred to as the Wage-Phillips curve. Models of Price-Phillips curve and Wage-Phillips curve are valuable tools for policy makers for a number of different purposes. In its original form the wage (or price) — unemployment relationship presents politicians with a list of different trade — offs to choose between inflation and unemployment. The trade-off seems to suggest that policy makers could choose a specific inflation-unemployment combination by controlling aggregate demand. This clearly points out that the trade-off postulated in the Phillips curve can be an usefull tool for monetary policy.
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Food price inflation and the poorNgidi, Bandile January 2016 (has links)
Thesis (M.Com. (Development Theory and Policy))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic and Business Sciences, 2015. / Food price inflation has been an important subject of debate internationally since 2008. This sharp increase in food prices experienced during 2008 lead to intense research into the causes, dynamics and responses to this particular instance of food price inflation. The international literature attributed food price inflation to such factors as climate change, increases in energy costs and speculative activity in financial markets for agricultural commodities. This research report undertakes a review of the measurement of food price inflation in South Africa, broadly assessing how it is to be linked to the poor in South Africa. The research report focuses on the work of institutions concerned with the measurement of food price inflation in South Africa. Different methodologies of identifying foods as food staples are looked at. Food prices and trends are analysed using CPI data from January 2008 until October 2008, using selected consumer price index series from Statistics South Africa. The research report finds that the institutions studied show evidence of that higher food price inflation is correlated with demographic markers of poverty, although the traditional measure, the CPI, does not suggests that this is very extensive. This, it is argued, is due to the calculation methodologies used in the published CPI, and the data period. The research report then ends with an overview of the political economy of food in South Africa, thereby makes recommendations as to why the measurement of food price inflation is important for the poor.
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Comparative study of purchasing power parities for the food component using the consumer price index data in the South African provincesKgantsi, Eugene Modisa 22 April 2013 (has links)
A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, 2012. / The purpose of this study is to investigate if the International Comparison Program (ICP) methodology could be used to examine the different buying power (worth) of the currency on the same products or goods amongst South African provinces. The method will be tested on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) food data collected from January 2006 to December 2006 from the main cities in the provinces. The food basket is obtained via the Income and Expenditure Survey (IES), which is generally updated every 5 years.
South Africa (SA) has disparities and differentials in economic indicators such as the CPI, Gross Domestic Product and employment, amongst the provinces which are caused by among other things geographic set-up, urbanisation, inflation rates, and expenditure patterns. We use the monthly data to do an inter-provincial comparison of food prices by deriving annual purchasing power parities (PPPs) for each of the provinces, using the Country Product Dummy (CPD) method recommended as best practice by the World Bank.
The CPI data is validated using the SEMPER software developed by the African Development Bank (AfDB). The validated data is examined for variability over the months and between the provinces using Analysis of Variance. Significant price differences are found for various products over the months and between provinces. The validated data was used to compute PPPs at the group and basic heading level. PPPs were investigated for differences in the provinces on grouped level of food products using Analysis of Variance. The reliability of PPPs between provinces is investigated both at grouped and basic heading level of products using the Cronbach-alpha statistic.
The results show that there are no significant variations in PPPs across provinces. This could be due to the similar business opportunities or developments in the provinces or due to the aggregation of prices from the individual product (basic heading) to the main product group level. This implies that the cost of the food basket is the same across provinces.
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Inflation dynamics in South AfricaLeshoro, Temitope Lydia January 2016 (has links)
Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
in the
FACULTY OF COMMERCE LAW AND MANAGEMENT
SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS SCIENCES
at the
UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND / The design and implementation of the monetary policy in South Africa has been based on the idea of a trade-off between inflation and output growth. However, there is no consensus among empirical investigations on the existence of Phillips curve in the present times. While the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has instrument independence, it does not have goal independence, which implies that there is coordination between the monetary policy and other macroeconomic policies. Thus, if the SARB objectives are in line with the other policy objectives, there should be a relationship between monetary variables and real variables. This therefore shows that in the long-run, monetary policy cannot single-handedly bring about both sustained economic growth and employment creation (SARB, 2014).
Thus this study explored inflation dynamics in South Africa by using the Hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve (HNKPC) and the augmented Gordon’s models. The study firstly estimated the Hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve model with a view to determine whether Phillips curve exists and ascertain whether the backward-looking or forward-looking components drive inflation dynamics in South Africa using OLS and GMM estimation techniques. The results show that the Phillips curve does not exist in South Africa using various measures of demand-side variable. These findings are robust across estimation methodologies as well as different measurements of inflation expectations and data frequency. While the findings indicated that economic agents in South Africa are both rational and adaptive in predicting inflation, the results clearly showed the dominance of forward looking component over the backward looking element in driving inflation.
Secondly, given the focus of the South African monetary authority in maintaining stable inflation rates and the fact that monetary policy need to go hand-in-hand with other policies in order to ensure stable inflation and economic growth (Gruen, Pagan and Thompson, 1999), this study considered the expanded Gordon’s model with a particular focus on how fiscal policy determines the inflation process in South Africa. The purpose of the Gordon’s chapter is to verify the existence or non-existence of Phillips curve in an expanded model, within the context of an augmented “triangle” model while including the monetarist and fiscal side variables, thereby
checking whether the PC relationship of recent studies is robust to model specification. Thus, the augmented Gordon’s model was estimated using a holistic approach of including the fiscalist, monetarist and the structuralist schools of thought, using the Vector autoregressive (VAR), vector error correction model (VECM) and innovation accounting techniques.
The results confirm the non-existence of PC whereby output growth maintained a negative relationship with inflation rate, signifying no trade-off despite the expanded specification, while the results from output-gap model are inconclusive. Further results showed that the demand-side, fiscal factors and some of the structural variables contribute more to the inflation dynamics in South Africa. Thus the changes in inflation rate are as a result of changes in output growth, government deficit, electricity price and exchange rate. The results confirmed that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) applies to the South African economy, whereby not only monetary policies should be considered in controlling inflation, but also fiscal policies.
On the other hand, the importance of the determinants of inflation rate is not sufficient in observing the inflation dynamics in South Africa; therefore, this study concluded by investigating the level at which inflation becomes detrimental to output growth. In the context of the low levels of economic growth and high levels of unemployment in South Africa, the study analysed the output growth implications of the inflation targeting monetary policy of the South African Reserve Bank that targets an inflation band between three and six percent.
Using the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) and the Sample Splitting Threshold Regression (SSTR) techniques, this study investigated the nonlinear inflation-growth nexus in South Africa with the purpose of identifying the inflation rate band that optimize output growth. The results showed that South Africa is able to accommodate a higher level of inflation beyond the current inflation target band by increasing the band to between seven and nine percent in order to enhance output growth. Our findings support the argument of studies that indicate that moderately higher inflation rate will not be harmful to the economy. / MT2017
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An analysis of the problem of price level changes and financial statementsUnknown Date (has links)
"The purpose of this paper is to analyze the problem created by a rising price level as it affects accounting and to appraise in the light of the broad social responsibility of accounting certain proposals for giving effect to price-level changes in accounting statements"--Introduction. / Typescript. / "August, 1958." / "Submitted to the Graduate Council of Florida State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science." / Advisor: John E. Champion, Professor Directing Paper. / Includes bibliographical references.
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Fisher hypothesis, international stock return differentials and inflation differentials.January 2000 (has links)
Wu Haijun. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 45-48). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.ii / Acknowledgement --- p.iv / Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1. --- The Fisher Hypothesis --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2. --- International Fisher Equation --- p.11 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- Theoretical Basis on The Link Between Stock Return Differential and Inflation Rate Differential --- p.15 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Data Description --- p.19 / Chapter Chapter 5. --- Results --- p.23 / Chapter 5.1. --- Does The Generalized Fisher Hypothesis Hold In The Long Horizons --- p.24 / Chapter 5.2. --- Does International Fisher Equation Hold --- p.29 / Chapter 5.3. --- Can International Elements Account For The Failure of Fisher Hypothesis --- p.36 / Chapter Chapter 6. --- Conclusion --- p.43 / Bibliography --- p.45 / Appendix A --- p.49 / Chapter A.1. --- The link between interest rate differential and inflation rate differential --- p.49 / Chapter A.2. --- Instrumental Variable Estimation --- p.53 / Appendix B --- p.59 / Chapter B.1. --- Hong Kong CPI(A) Source --- p.59 / Chapter B.2. --- Taiwan CPI Source --- p.61 / LIST OF TABLES / Table 4.1: Data Description --- p.21 / Table 4.2: Means and Standard Deviations of Inflation and Stock Returns --- p.22 / Table 5.1: Short-term (One Year) Test on Fisher Hypothesis on Stock Returns --- p.26 / Table 5.2: Long-term (Five Years) Test on Fisher Hypothesis on Stock Returns --- p.27 / Table 5.3: Long-term (Ten Years) Test on Fisher Hypothesis on Stock Returns --- p.30 / Table 5.4: Short-term (One Year) Test For International Fisher Equation on Stock Returns --- p.33 / Table 5.5: Long-term (Five Years) Test For International Fisher Equation on Stock Returns --- p.34 / Table 5.6: Long-term (Ten Years) Test For International Fisher Equation on Stock Returns --- p.35 / Table 5.7: Testing Effects of International Elements on The Fisher Hypothesis --- p.39 / Table 5.8: Regression Results For The Coefficients of Domestic Inflation With and Without International Elements --- p.40
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Inflation-induced distortions of the real economy : an econometric and simulation study of housing and mortgage innovation.Kearl, J. R. (James R.) January 1975 (has links)
Thesis. 1975. Ph.D.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics. / Vita. / Bibliography: leaves 337-347. / Ph.D.
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