There are two key observations in international macroeconomics which pertain to output and real exchange rate dynamics. First, fluctuations in national output around its long-run growth path are very persistent. Second, fluctuations in real exchange rates are very persistent. The sticky price framework offers an explanation for both phenomena. The first and second essay of this thesis take an empirical approach to test the predictions of this framework. In the first essay I test the prediction of the sticky price model for output dynamics using annual IFS data on 51 countries over the period 1950 -1996. The model predicts that price stickiness should be less important in high inflation countries and therefore output fluctuations less persistent. I find that, this inverse relationship is statistically insignificant in the international data. A similar result holds for OECD countries. In the empirical implementation I explicitly control for the within-country time variation in inflation by first characterizing the inflationary environment using the long-run movements in inflation (trend inflation), and secondly, by excluding episodes of hyperinflation. The analysis shows that when the within-country time variation in inflation is ignored, there is support for the prediction. For instance, the inverse relationship between persistence in deviations of output from its long-run growth path and average inflation is statistically significant in the full sample. However, the exclusion of a few episodes of hyperinflation renders this relationship statistically insignificant. In the second essay I investigate the prediction of the sticky price model for real exchange rate dynamics using annual IFS data on 49 countries over the period 1972-1996. The model predicts that deviations of real exchange rates from purchasing power parity should be less persistent, in high inflation countries. The empirical analysis reveals that the support for such an inverse relationship is extremely fragile. In particular, eliminating episodes of hyperinflation renders this relationship statistically insignificant. The lack of evidence in favour of the two predictions of the sticky price model is problematic since this model is extensively used as a microfoundation for understanding output and real exchange rate fluctuations. In the third essay I take a structural approach to qualitatively explore the role of slow diffusion of new products in propagating the effect of technology shocks on output. I present a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which the creation of new products requires real resources. These products are beneficial for the economy but only upon complete diffusion. However, this diffusion is not instantaneous. I find that relative to a model in which there is instantaneous diffusion of new products, the qualitative output dynamics are similar to what is observed in the U.S. data. This warrants further quantitative investigation. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

M.Comm. / Under the previous accommodation system the monetary policy of the South African Reserve Bank failed to operate by means of open market transactions, and interest rate movements was solely the discretion of the South African Reserve Bank and was driven by means of the traditional Bank rate. The need for a more efficient and transparent accommodation system that is based on open market transactions and determined by demand and supply of liquidity was evident, and therefore the introduction of the repurchase agreement system in March 1998 was unavoidable. The ultimate objective of monetary policy is to achieve price stability, i.e. to ensure that the Reserve Bank has a goal of maintaining inflation at a level that would be more or less in line with the average rate of inflation in the economies of South Africa's major trading partners and international competitors. It is important that the Reserve Bank enhances transparency for the effective operation of an inflation-targeting framework. Transparency introduces predictability and helps to ensure that market expectations are consistent with the objective of price stability. The level of interest rates in a country can influence price stability directly. A transparent monetary policy will mean that changes in short-term interest rates should not surprise the market. Markets should anticipate decisions taken by the Reserve Bank and therefore transparency should promote the predictability of monetary policy. Since its implementation, the current accommodation system (repurchase agreement) has raised some concerns regarding transparency. The government's new monetary policy framework of inflation targeting also has some limitations that can influence the achieving of such targets. The one influences the other, and if interest rates and inflation is not managed transparently, it will have a severe impact on the overall efficiency of monetary policy in South Africa.

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A Doctoral Thesis Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy, The Graduate School of Business Administration, University of the Witwatersrand February 2016 / The liberalization of foreign exchange markets occasioned by the widespread acceptance of floating exchange rate systems brought about prevalent acceptance of foreign currency (usually U.S. dollars) in many developing and transition economies. Facing both domestic and foreign imbalances, a number of developing economies have embraced foreign currencies as a store of value (asset substitution), and in some instances as a medium of exchange for domestic transactions (currency substitution). This thesis examines dollarization/currency substitution, its impact on macroeconomic fundamentals, and the challenges it poses for effective formulation and transmission of monetary policy in Ghana. The entire thesis is organised into five empirical essays, each touching on a specific subject within the broad theme of dollarization and economic instability. The first essay explores the macroeconomic determinants of financial dollarization. The evidence establishes that exchange rate depreciation and financial development drive dollarization. Additionally depreciation of the domestic currency increases demand for foreign currencies, while a more developed financial sector tends to curtail dollarization. The second essay models a long-run money demand function for Ghana within the portfolio balance framework. The results indicate that, although foreign interest rates and expected exchange rates (either separately or jointly) are relevant elements in the money demand function, there evidence is more in support of capital mobility and not currency substitution. The third essay provides evidence on how financial dollarization affects the volatility of nominal and real Ghana cedi/U.S. dollar exchange rates. The study showed that the effect of financial dollarization on nominal exchange rate volatility in Ghana is positive, thus, as demand for U.S. dollars becomes more extensive, the cedi/dollar exchange rate becomes more volatile and unstable. The fourth essay investigates the role of dollarization in the dynamics of inflation and inflation uncertainty. Contrary to common logic, the results indicate that dollarization has not played a significant role in the dynamics of inflation volatility. The study posits that, although there is no significant impact of dollarization on inflation volatility, inflation targeting affects the inflation-inflation uncertainty relationship in Ghana. The last essay considers the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in Ghana and examines whether the degree of dollarization hinders or facilitates that process by accounting for the role of the inflation targeting. The results show that credit and exchange rate channels dominate the transmission mechanism, with the former assuming a more significant role in the inflation targeting period. Moreover, the contribution of dollarization has diminished in the post-inflation targeting era, suggesting that monetary authorities have paid more attention to the effects of dollarization in the current monetary regime. A number of policy prescriptions arising from the thesis are presented to guide domestic authorities in smoothing the path of the instability in the economy. / MB2016

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fullment of the requirements for the Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Degree, June 2017 / This thesis contains three main chapters. The rst chapter employs wageprice spirals to generate ination forecasts for Australia, Canada, France, South Korea, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States. We use three competing specications of the wage-price spirals, and test which specication provides the best forecasts of price ination. For each specication we provide one quarter, four quarter and eight quarter ahead dynamic forecasts of price ination. The rst two wage-price spirals in the rst chapter are from the Keynesian tradition from te standpoint of expectations formation. The chapter also considers the New Keynesian wage-price spiral. We use the Root Means Square Error and the Clark and West statistic to compare the performance of ination forecasts from the three competing wage-price spirals that we consider in the rst chapter of the thesis. We nd that the New Keynesian wage and price specication su⁄ers from the wrong sign problem, and its forecasts of price ination generally outperform those from the old Keynesian wage price spiral for the eight quarter ahead time horizon. The usefulness of this nding to the conduct of monetary policy is limited due to the wrong sign problem of the forcing variable in the New Keynesian wageprice spiral. We also nd that the Flaschel type specication of price and wage ination produce four and eight quarter head ination forecasts that are better than those from the Fair type specication. We further nd that the Fair type specication price and wage equation produce the best forecasts of ination for the one quarter ahead time horizon. In the second chapter, we estimate natural variables and test their ability to explain the ination process for the eight countries that we consider. We use the traditional Keynesian wage-price spiral and the triangle system approaches to estimate the NAIRU and potential output. In the case of the traditional Keynesian wage-price spiral, the price Phillips curve, which can be specied as a triangle Phillips curve, features backward looking ination expectations and nominal wage ination, the output gap and supply shocks. The nominal wage Phillips curve features ination expectations and price ination and the unemployment gap. The presence of price ination in the nominal wage Phillips curve and the presence of nominal wage ination in the price Phillips curve leads to the interaction between the two Phillips curves. The separate demand pressure terms allows for their identication since, as someauthorsintheliteraturearguethatthegoodsandlabourmarketsdonot move in line with each other. To compute the NAIRU and potential output using the Keynesian approach, we rstly exploit the information contained in vector of unobservable by estimating the wage-price spiral in di⁄erence form using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression method. We use this regression method in order to control for any correlation that may exist between errors in the price and wage Phillips curves. This allows us to solve for the vector of potential output and the NAIRU. We then the moving average technique in order to avoid problems associated with the HP lter for smoothing. Due to data availability, use the MA (20) approximation of the low pass lter after padding the endpoints with forecasts from an AR(4) process. We follow a similar procedure in the estimation of the estimation of the NAIRU and potential output for the triangle system approach. To test which method produces the best natural variables, we t the gaps that are computed from the NAIRU and potential output in a simple single equation price Phillips curve. To test which specication produces the best natural varibles we use a simple single equation triangle price Phillips curve. We nd that the output gaps computed from the two competing approaches are signicantly correlated, the same applies to the unemployment gaps computed from the two approaches. We nd that the quality of unemployment rate gaps computed from the Keynesian and triangle system approach to produce similar quality of results when tted to a single equation triangle price Phillips curve. The Keynesian approach slightly outperforms the triangle systems approach in the when considering the output gap as a proxy for the demand pressure. These results indicate that the wage-price spiral still remains an important tool in the determination of the dynamics ination. In the third chapter, we analyze the relationship between monetary policy and natural variables for Australia, Canada, France, South Korea, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States. We do this by specifying a relationship between natural rates and the real interest rate. The theoretical relationship between the two variables is positive in the case of the NAIRU and negative through Okuns law in the case of potential output. We regress the natural variable against a constant and the MA(8) of the real interest rate. We nd that the parameter of the real interest rate generally has a correct sign when considering the Keynesian approach computed NAIRUs, with only four being signicant. In the case of the triangle system approach NAIRU, we nd that the real interest rate parameter has a correct sign and signicant four countries. We nd that NAIRUs computed using di⁄erent methodologies can produce a di⁄erent reference point for policy makers. We then introduce hysteresis in the relationship between monetary policy and the NAIRU. We then nd that the interest rate parameter generally has a incorrect sign across the three approaches. The HP ltering approach which we include in our study for comparison purposes produces incorrect correlation for all the countries, while the Keynesian approach negative correlation for seven countries, and the triangle system approach in six countries. In the case of the relationship between monetary policy and potential output, we nd that the real interest rate parameter has an incorrect sign. When introducing hysteresis in the relationship between monetary policy and potential we nd that, unlike in the case of the NAIRU this plays signicant role in the relationship. / XL2018

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This paper investigates the relationship between inflation uncertainty, the conduct of monetary policy, and the level of economic growth in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. This is accomplished by analyzing regression and nonregression evidence. The regression evidence is drawn from an earlier study by Sebatian Edwards (1983). A replication and reexamination of the tests conducted by Edwards reflect an overall negative relationship between unexpected monetary policy and economic growth for the period between 1963 and 1993. In addition to regression evidence, non-regression evidence confirms the econometric results. The evidence presented in this paper demonstrates that inconsistent macroeconomic policies, such as sizable and chronic budget deficits result in sustained and variable inflation as well as lower economic growth in the long-run. / Master of Arts

The effects of monetary policy on real economic variables have been debated for some time. This debate became more intense after the discovery of the Phillips curve which appeared to show a stable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This curve in its original form has now been abandoned and debate has centered around the question of a short run trade-off. It is this question, do short-run trade-offs exist and if so, why, and what affects their length, that this dissertation addresses. Chapter II explores this question in a model where the Federal Reserve does not have full credibility among all the agents in the economy and where beliefs are endogenous. It is shown that when the Federal Reserve announces a new monetary policy rule, temporary nonneutrality of money can result if some agents are skeptical of the Fed's intentions to follow the announced rule or if some agents merely believe some other agents are skeptical whether or not they truly are. The magnitude of the trade-off depends on the proportion of agents who are skeptical and how different the old and new rules are. The length of time the trade-off exists depends on how skeptical the agents are. The more skeptical they are, the longer it takes the Fed to convince these agents that it is following and will continue to follow the announced rule. Chapter III develops an empirical model to determine if the evidence supports the existence of short-run trade-offs in general and the credibility implications in particular. A Bayesian Vector Autoregression is used for the estimations. It is shown that short-run trade-offs do exist and do vary in length and magnitude. These variations are related to the implications of the credibility theory. It is found the degree of skepticism and the proportion of agents who are skeptical could have caused these short-run trade-offs to vary in length and magnitude. / Ph. D. / incomplete_metadata

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2007. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In Februarie 2000 het die Minister van Finansies aangekondig dat die regering besluit het om 'n inflasie teiken van 3 tot 6 persent vir 2002 daar te stel en het dus 'n beleid om 'n bepaalde inflasiekoers na te streef, aangeneem. 'n Eksplisiete lae inflasiekoersteiken is gestel as deel van die regering se ekonomiese beleid. Dit is 'n aanvaarde aanname dat hierdie teikenkoers vir die afsienbare toekoms sal geld. Veranderinge in die inflasiekoers, ongeag of dit na hoer of laer vlakke beweeg, het 'n invloed op hoe bateklasse reageer. Dit is dus belangrik dat beleggers die dinamika van inflasie verstaan en hoe dit beleggingsopbrengste bernvloed. Dit sal hulle help om deurdagte beleggingsbesluite te neem en om realistiese verwagtinge van be leggings - en polisopbrengste te he. Vir verskaffers van beleggingsprodukte in Suid-Afrika, veral die lewensversekeringsindustrie, is daar twee beduidende uitdagings in die huidige omgewing van lae rentekoerse en lae inflasie: om 'n winsgewende kontantvloei te genereer en om aan kliente se verwagtinge te valdoen. Volgens kliente is daar in die onlangse verlede nie aan hul verwagtinge valdoen nie, aangesien il1lustratiewe uitkeerwaardes wat gekwoteer is toe die polis uitgeneem is, nie geldig is in die huidige lae-inflasie omgewing nie. Kliente is ook teleurgesteld met huidige nomina Ie opbrengste wat laer is wat voorheen bereik is. Alhoewe[ dit algemeen aanvaar word dat 'n lae en stabiele inflasiekoers 'n voorvereiste is vir volhoubare ekonomiese groei en vooruitgang. verander dit die beleggingsomgewing vir private beleggers, verskaffers van beleggingsprodukte en beheerliggame. Hierdie verslag ondersoek die impak van lae inflasie op beleggingsopbrengste asook die implikasie daarvan vir beleggers, beleggingsproduk-verskaffers en beheerliggame in die finansiele dienstesektor in Suid-Afrika.