Interannual variation of Indian summer (June-September: JJAS) monsoon rainfall (ISMR) depends on its relative intensity during early (June-July: JJ; contribution 52%) and late (August-September: AS; contribution 49%) phases. Apart from variations in sea surface temperature (SST), the primary reasons behind the variability during JJ and AS can be very different due to change in climatic conditions on account of post-onset processes. Here, using a high resolution general circulation model with seasonally varying climatological SST, mechanisms those govern the intensity of rainfall during JJ and AS are investigated. There is no significant relation-ship between intensity of precipitation over Indian region in JJ and AS. Moreover, the factors determining early monsoon (JJ) precipitation are different than that for late monsoon (AS). In absence of interannual SST variation, pre-monsoon soil moisture do not play a significant role for the interannual variation of monsoon precipitation over India. A large scale oscillation of the ITCZ is noticed on interannual time scale spanning from around 60◦E to 150◦E that brings spatially coherent flood and drought over this region. Early monsoon precipitation has a larger dependency on spring snow depth over Eurasia and phase of the upper tropospheric Rossby wave in May. However, late monsoon precipitation over India is mainly governed by the intensity and time scale of the intraseasonally varying convective cloud bands. This study suggests that early monsoon (JJ) precipitation over Indian region is more correlated with pre-monsoon signatures of land-atmosphere parameters. However, in later parts after the onset (AS), the monsoon intensity is primarily driven by its internal dynamics and characteristics of intraseasonal oscillation.

A análise de uma população em longo prazo permite a identificação da ausência ou presença de variações nos padrões de ciclo de vida, de distribuição espaço-temporal e dinâmica populacional. O ciclo de vida do camarão sete-barbas Xiphopenaeus kroyeri foi investigado na Enseada de Ubatuba, litoral norte do Estado de São Paulo (23º25\' - 23º27\'S / 45º00\' - 45º03\' W) ao longo de um intervalo de treze anos. Amostras de material biológico, de água de fundo e de sedimento foram coletadas em quatro pontos de amostragem em três períodos de 12 meses cada: janeiro a dezembro de 1998, julho de 2006 a junho de 2007 e setembro de 2010 a agosto de 2011. Dados obtidos em 1999 foram incluídos para as análises de crescimento individual, de longevidade e de idade de maturação. Altas abundâncias de fêmeas maduras e de jovens foram respectivamente associadas a valores de temperatura da água de fundo acima e abaixo da média da região. Indivíduos adultos predominaram em pontos com variação temporal da composição granulométrica do sedimento enquanto que os jovens se estabeleceram naqueles em que o sedimento permaneceu fino entre os períodos. Em 1998, a abundância de jovens, o peso individual de machos e fêmeas de todas as categorias demográficas, a idade de maturação morfológica e fisiológica e a longevidade foram maiores do que nos outros períodos. Os parâmetros da função de crescimento de machos e fêmeas variaram entre os períodos, sem apresentarem uma tendência temporal clara. Os padrões anuais de reprodução e recrutamento foram bastante semelhantes entre os períodos. As alterações nos fatores ambientais provocadas por variações na dinâmica de massas de água, pela ocorrência de El Niño e alterações na intensidade de pesca foram consideradas como possíveis agentes relacionadas às variações nos padrões do ciclo de vida da espécie na região / Long-term studies on a population provide detection of the presence or absence of interannual variation in patterns of its life cycle, spatio-temporal distribution, and dynamics. This study investigate the population of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri within a period of 13 years in Ubatuba Bay, northern coast of São Paulo state, Brazil (23º25\' - 23º27\'S / 45º00\' - 45º03\' W). Shrimp, bottom water and sediment samples were collected from four sampling sites during three 12-month periods: January-December 1998, July 2006-June 2007, and September 2010-August 2011. Monthly data collected in 1999 were included in growth, longevity and maturation age analyses. High abundance of mature females and juveniles were associated to the occurrence of temperature values below and above the region average, respectively. Adults predominated in sites that showed temporal variation of sediment texture while juveniles occurred in sites where sediment remained fine between the study periods. In the 1998 period values of juveniles were more abundant, individual weight of all demographic categories was higher, both morphological and physiological maturity was attained later and lifespan was longer than on the following periods. Growth function parameters of males and females varied between periods with no clear temporal trend. Monthly patterns of reproduction and recruitment were similar between the study periods. Changes in the environmental conditions caused by variations in the dynamics of the local water masses, occurrence of El Niño and fishery intensity were considered as possible factors related to the interannual variations in the life cycle pattern of X. kroyeri in the study region

A análise de uma população em longo prazo permite a identificação da ausência ou presença de variações nos padrões de ciclo de vida, de distribuição espaço-temporal e dinâmica populacional. O ciclo de vida do camarão sete-barbas Xiphopenaeus kroyeri foi investigado na Enseada de Ubatuba, litoral norte do Estado de São Paulo (23º25\' - 23º27\'S / 45º00\' - 45º03\' W) ao longo de um intervalo de treze anos. Amostras de material biológico, de água de fundo e de sedimento foram coletadas em quatro pontos de amostragem em três períodos de 12 meses cada: janeiro a dezembro de 1998, julho de 2006 a junho de 2007 e setembro de 2010 a agosto de 2011. Dados obtidos em 1999 foram incluídos para as análises de crescimento individual, de longevidade e de idade de maturação. Altas abundâncias de fêmeas maduras e de jovens foram respectivamente associadas a valores de temperatura da água de fundo acima e abaixo da média da região. Indivíduos adultos predominaram em pontos com variação temporal da composição granulométrica do sedimento enquanto que os jovens se estabeleceram naqueles em que o sedimento permaneceu fino entre os períodos. Em 1998, a abundância de jovens, o peso individual de machos e fêmeas de todas as categorias demográficas, a idade de maturação morfológica e fisiológica e a longevidade foram maiores do que nos outros períodos. Os parâmetros da função de crescimento de machos e fêmeas variaram entre os períodos, sem apresentarem uma tendência temporal clara. Os padrões anuais de reprodução e recrutamento foram bastante semelhantes entre os períodos. As alterações nos fatores ambientais provocadas por variações na dinâmica de massas de água, pela ocorrência de El Niño e alterações na intensidade de pesca foram consideradas como possíveis agentes relacionadas às variações nos padrões do ciclo de vida da espécie na região / Long-term studies on a population provide detection of the presence or absence of interannual variation in patterns of its life cycle, spatio-temporal distribution, and dynamics. This study investigate the population of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri within a period of 13 years in Ubatuba Bay, northern coast of São Paulo state, Brazil (23º25\' - 23º27\'S / 45º00\' - 45º03\' W). Shrimp, bottom water and sediment samples were collected from four sampling sites during three 12-month periods: January-December 1998, July 2006-June 2007, and September 2010-August 2011. Monthly data collected in 1999 were included in growth, longevity and maturation age analyses. High abundance of mature females and juveniles were associated to the occurrence of temperature values below and above the region average, respectively. Adults predominated in sites that showed temporal variation of sediment texture while juveniles occurred in sites where sediment remained fine between the study periods. In the 1998 period values of juveniles were more abundant, individual weight of all demographic categories was higher, both morphological and physiological maturity was attained later and lifespan was longer than on the following periods. Growth function parameters of males and females varied between periods with no clear temporal trend. Monthly patterns of reproduction and recruitment were similar between the study periods. Changes in the environmental conditions caused by variations in the dynamics of the local water masses, occurrence of El Niño and fishery intensity were considered as possible factors related to the interannual variations in the life cycle pattern of X. kroyeri in the study region

In this thesis, the role of soil water storage change on the annual water balance is evaluated based on observations at a large number of watersheds located in a spectrum of climate regions, and an annual water balance model is developed at the seasonal scale based on Budyko hypthesis. The annual water storage change is quantified based on water balance closure given the available data of precipitation, runoff, and evaporation estimated from remote sensing data and meteorology reanalysis. The responses of annual runoff, evaporation, and storage change to the interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation are then analyzed. Both runoff and evaporation sensitivities to potential evaporation are higher under energy-limited conditions, but storage change seems to be more sensitive to potential evaporation under the conditions in which water and energy are balanced. Runoff sensitivity to precipitation is higher under energylimited conditions; but both evaporation and storage change sensitivities to precipitation are higher under water-limited conditions. Therefore, under energy-limited conditions, most of precipitation variability is transferred to runoff variability; but under waterlimited conditions, most of precipitation variability is transferred to storage change and some of precipitation variability is transferred to evaporation variability. The main finding of this part is that evaporation variability will be overestimated by assuming negligible storage change in annual water balance, particularly under water-limited conditions. Budyko framework which expresses partitioning of water supply at the mean annual scale, is adapted to be applicable in modeling water cycle in short terms i.e., iv seasonal and interannual scales. Seasonal aridity index is defined as the ratio of seasonal potential evaporation and the difference between precipitation and storage change. The seasonal water balance is modeled by using a Budyko-type curve with horizontal shifts which leads prediction of seasonal and annual storage changes and evaporation if precipitation, potential evaporation, and runoff data are available.

No description available.

Previous research has shown a close relationship between the terrestrial and aquatic carbon (C) cycles, namely that part of the C fixed via terrestrial net primary production (NPP) is exported to inland waters. In turn, it has been demonstrated that once in the freshwater system C can not only be transported laterally as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) but is also mineralized and evaded back to the atmosphere as CO2, or buried in sediments. A number of hotspot areas of aquatic CO2 evasion have been identified but there are considerable gaps in our knowledge, particularly associated with understanding and accounting for the temporal and spatial variation of aquatic C fluxes at regional to global scales, which we know from local scale studies, to be substantial. In this thesis, three important regional hotspots of LOAC activity were identified, where significant gaps in our understanding remain.For the boreal region, an empirical model is developed to produce the first high resolution maps of boreal lake pCO2 and CO2 evasion, providing a new estimate for total evasion from boreal lakes of 189 (74–347) Tg C yr-1, which is more than double the previous best estimate. The model is also used along with future projections of terrestrial NPP and precipitation, to predict future lake CO2 evasion under future climate change and land-use scenarios, and it is found that even under the most conservative scenario CO2 evasion from boreal lakes may increase 38% by 2100. For the Amazon Basin, the ORCHILEAK land surface model driven by a newly developed wetland forcing file, is used to show that the export of C to and CO2 evasion from inland waters is highly interannually variable; greatest during wet years and lowest during droughts. However, at the same time overall net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and C sequestration is highest during wet years, partly due to reduced decomposition rates in water-logged floodplain soils. Furthermore, it is shown that aquatic C fluxes display greater variation than terrestrial C fluxes, and that this variation significantly dampens the interannual variability in NEP of the Amazon basin by moderating terrestrial variation. Finally, ORCHILEAK is applied to the Congo Basin to investigate the evolution of the integrated aquatic and terrestrial C fluxes from 1861 to the present day, and in turn to 2099 under a future climate and land-use scenario. It is shown that terrestrial and aquatic fluxes increase substantially over time, both over the historical period and into the future, and that these increases are largely driven by atmospheric CO2. The proportion of terrestrial NPP lost to the LOAC also rises from 3% in 1861 to 5% in 2099 and this trend is driven not only by atmospheric CO2 but also by climate change. This is in contrast to the boreal region where the proportion of NPP exported to inland waters is predicted to remain relatively constant, and to the Amazon, where a decrease has been predicted, due to differences in projected climate change. / L’état de l’art dans le domaine a montré qu’il y avait un lien étroit entre les cycles du carbone terrestre et aquatique :en effet, une partie du carbone fixé par photosynthèse (productivité primaire brute) est transférée vers les milieux aquatiques continentaux pour être ensuite transporté latéralement sous forme de carbone organique dissous (COD), de carbone organique particulaire (COP), de carbone inorganique dissous (CID). Durant ce transfert latéral, le carbone peut être minéralisé puis réémis vers l’atmosphère sous forme de CO2 ou enfoui dans les sédiments. Cependant, nous sommes encore loin de bien comprendre et surtout de quantifier les variations temporelles et spatiales des flux de carbones à l’échelle régionale et globale, même si les études faites à l’échelle locale nous montrent qu’elles sont importantes. Au cours de cette thèse, nous nous sommes focalisés sur 3 grandes régions pour lesquelles la connaissance des flux de carbone le long du continuum aquatique reliant les écosystèmes terrestres aux océans étaient encore très parcellaire.Pour la région boréale, un modèle empirique a été développé afin de produire les premières cartes à haute résolution de pCO2 et d’émission de CO2 pour les lacs boréaux. Les résultats du modèle nous ont permis de contraindre les émissions totales de CO2 pour les lacs boréaux à 189 (74-347) Tg C an-1, soit plus du double des estimations précédentes. Ce modèle a ensuite été couplé aux projections de production primaire brute terrestre et de précipitations afin de prédire les émissions de CO2 pour ces lacs pour différents scénarios de changement climatique et d’occupation des sols. Les résultats montrent que même en prenant le scénario le plus conservatif, les émissions de CO2 des lacs boréaux augmenteraient de 38% d’ici 2100.Pour le bassin de l’Amazone, le modèle d’écosystème terrestre ORCHILEAK, paramétré par de nouvelles donnés de forçage des zones humides, a été utilisé pour démontrer que l’export de carbone terrestre vers les réseaux fluviaux ainsi que les émissions de CO2 ont une très grande variabilité interannuelle :émissions élevées lors des années à forte précipitation et basses lors des années sèches. Cependant, la productivité nette de l’écosystème (PNE) Amazone et la fixation nette de carbone à l’échelle du bassin sont plus élevées lors des années humides, en partie dû au taux de décomposition de carbone organique réduit lorsque les sols sont saturés en eau. De plus, les résultats montrent que les flux de carbone des systèmes aquatiques ont une plus grande variabilité que les flux terrestres, ce qui atténue considérablement la variabilité interannuelle de la PNE du bassin de l'Amazone.Pour finir, nous avons appliqué ORCHILEAK au bassin du Congo afin d’étudier l’évolution intégrée des flux de carbone terrestres et aquatiques de 1861 à nos jours, ainsi que de projeter leur devenir au cours du 21eme siècle selon les scénarios de changement climatiques et de changement d’occupation des sols. Nous avons montré que les flux terrestres et aquatiques augmentent de façon significative durant la période historique et dans le futur, cette augmentation étant largement induite par l’augmentation du CO2 atmosphérique et, dans une moindre mesure, par le changement climatique. En particulier, la proportion de la productivité primaire brute terrestre exportée vers le continuum aquatique passe de 3% en 1861 à 5% en 2099. Ce résultat contraste avec ceux obtenu pour la région boréale où cette proportion reste relativement constante et pour l’Amazone où c’est une baisse qui est en fait prédite. Ces différences s’expliquent par des trajectoires de changement climatique distinctes pour ces 3 régions. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished