Abstract Most of literature and studies on prediction of exchange rate focus on main industrial countries with few discussions on the exchange rate of the developing countries. For model residual differences can be found in a linear model, so the linear model will adjust to find equilibrium at a fixed speed. However, it is difficult for the linear model to capture the character of dynamic adjustment behavior if a non-linear adjustment relationship exists (Sarno, 2002). Moreover, in case the trading costs exist in the foreign exchange market or the technical analysis is widely used among traders, then the deviations from equilibrium exchange rate may present a non-linear adjustment trend. In view of this, this study employed the STAR (smooth transition autoregression) model developed by Granger and Terasvirta (1993) to discuss the dynamic adjustment process of the deviations from UIP in the seven countries in Latin America. In most of the experimental studies conducted in the past, it was found difficult to establish the assumptions of uncovered interest parity (UIP). Therefore, this study is aimed to verify the experimental studies on UIP in the Latin America under the non-linear framework by means of non-linear model analysis.

Efficient market exist such that financial market make the absence of arbitrage opportunity on intertemporal asset price, There are special existence due to volatility clustering effect provides that the conditional volatility predictor could control, applying on derivative such as option¡Bcurrency exchange¡Bswap¡Bexist possible arbitrage profits ,in this paper involve that forward market efficiency and how to prototype concrete, now we apply parity theory including covered interest parity and uncovered interest parity, then the study of both covered (CIP)and uncovered interest parity (UIP) plus FME are tested in the 30 and 90 forward markets for the NTD/USD exchange rate to examine market efficiency on using GARCH-M,EGARCH models , In the empirical tests, we find the NTS/USD dollar interest rate spread have I(o) property ,Results are provided for interest rate on stationarity indicating that interest differential is stationary ,the result also imply stationary relationship between Taiwan and USA on money policy, Using Taylor(1989) ¡As covered interest arbitrage models, The empirical results show lower positive profit opportunities on NTD or US returns, covered interest parity may hold because NTS/US exchange market after reopening becomes more efficient than market after reopening, the central bank money policy intervention is influential but we test market efficiency hypotheses on basis of Domowitz and Hakkio¡]1985¡^¡As ARCH-M model deeply employing GARCH-M¡BEGARCH models to estimate Risk Premium¡Athen employ Felmingham (2003.2) ¡As regression equation to test forward market efficiency , the empirical results shows that not only CIP¡BUIP theory fail but also Forward Market Efficiency hypotheses cannot hold ,then future spot rates could be predicted by forward rates are worthy of investigate., It may indicate that foreign securities are imperfect substitutes for domestic ones of equivalent maturity and that market participants, implying that there is arbitrage profit opportunity between Taiwan and the USA, there are many arguments to discuss whether forward rates as an unbiased predictor of future spot rate ,Forward Market efficiency give the presence of the time varying premium on different place, Ultimately, therefore, the unbiased nature of forward rates is an empirical, and not a theoretical, issue¡C

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / Thesis advisor: Rosen Valchev / This dissertation consists in three chapters, each making a distinct contribution. Chapter 1 empirically tests classic and new Uncovered Interest Parity puzzle in an innovative way. Findings suggest that government debt is significant and economically relevant for UIP puzzles estimation.Chapter 2 shows that a class of macroeconomic models reproduce the UIP puzzle under a standard parametrization and adding convenience yields exogenous dynamics. Chapter 3 is a theoretical model that links financial crises to the election of populists parties, matching empirical evidence from Europe. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2021. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

The current intellectual climate regarding economics seems to be at an agreement regarding the theory of uncovered interest parity and its unreliability within real life application. The purpose of this thesis is to test how the theory holds over periods with varying economic stability, both using a short- and long-horizon test in order to establish the usefulness of uncovered interest parity as a predictor for exchange rate movements. The short-horizon test will utilize the interbank offering rate, and the long-horizon test the yield to maturity of government 10-year benchmark bonds as the interest rate. The sample period is 2000 to 2018, covering the financial crisis of 2007. We will focus on three different time periods: pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis. We will use ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and an extreme sampling. From the regressions we conclude that most of the time periods move against the uncovered interest parity, where only the crisis period is in line with the theory. The extreme sampling supports this result, as larger interest differentials provide the rational expectations with more predictive power of the future spot exchange rate.

After two world wars, the West European Economy goes through serious recession. Through the cold war, the representatives of west European countries, German and France, feel that they must cooperate. Hence, by the bases of economic co-operations, the West Europe starts to integrate their resources and political alliances. From the ¡§Economic Community (EC)¡¨ to ¡§Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)¡¨, most West European countries go through several obstacles, like the Collapse of Bretton Woods System in 1971 and the European Crisis in 1992,¡K¡K, etc. Finally, in 1th, Jan., 1999, 11 countries of European Union establish EMU and expect to take Euro as their single currency formally in 2002. They also establish European Central Bank (ECB) to execute the Euro zone¡¦s single monetary policy. The status of Euro after 1th Jan., 1999 is the purpose of this study. This article tries to use the Exchange Rate decision theories, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Interest Rate parity (IRP), to investigate the relationship between Euro and USD. From several statistical empirical tests, it reveals that the trends of Euro couldn¡¦t correspond with the theoretical wants, ie PPP and IRP can¡¦t catch the trends of Euro. By the outcome of ¡§Sign Test¡¨ and ¡§Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test¡¨, it can be found obviously that the Euro indeed is undervalued from the establishment to Apr., 2000 if we don¡¦t take the transaction costs into account. As a result of the outcome of empirical finds, the article starts to investigate the reasons why the theoretical values from exchange rate decision theories are not equal with real ones. One is that if the empirical models ignore some important factors which lead to the biases of models¡Fthe other is if Euro is undervalued during this observation periods. From the economic macro-environmental analyses, the article can infer that because of the Kosov Wars, Russian economic reform problems, the increase of short interest rate gap between USD and Euro, the different economic reform paces among member countries of EMU,¡K¡K, etc. result in the main factors of the weak currency - Euro.

China’s goal of eventually having the renminbi (RMB) be “fully convertible” necessarily requires that its capital account be fully liberated; this paper investigates the on-going changes of the implemented capital controls by China and China’s progress on liberalizing the country’s capital account. The first portion of the paper studies deviations of the covered interest parity, a common measure of capital controls. Econometrical analysis provides evidence for significant and persistent RMB/USD interest rate differentials, calculated from monthly data of 1-month yields for the sample period of 1999 to 2014. At the same time, evidence for cointegration between the onshore and offshore yield suggests that capital flows are not fully restrictive in the long run. The second portion of the paper analyzes constructed de jure capital control indices based on IMF’s AREAER documents following Chen and Qian (2015), and actual capital account flows based on China’s Balance of Payments. The constructed de jure indices quantify the intensity of changes of capital controls, capturing the gradualist style that China adopts in implementing its policies. The index reveals that China has been increasing its pace of capital account liberalization in the recent years compared to the past, and in particular, prioritizes liberalizing controls on outward FDI flows and equity securities inflows. The constructed de jure indices and the respective flows for FDI and equity securities are found to be highly correlated, implying that flows have been responsive to changes in the controls. It also indicates that prior to the restriction lift offs, the capital controls had been relatively effective.

O objetivo deste estudo é verificar o grau de integração econômica entre os países membros do Mercosul (Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai) para o período de julho/1995 a setembro/2011, por meio da análise das séries de tempo dos diferenciais de taxa de juros reais (rids) ex ante. São desenvolvidos testes de estacionariedade nas séries bilaterais, considerando a presença de outliers e quebras estruturais, e nas séries em painel. Os rids são então aproximados por um processo AR(1) e avalia-se a evolução temporal desses coeficientes, estimados recursivamente e via janela móvel. Os resultados dos testes de raiz unitária bilateral apresentaram divergências entre si, enquanto os testes considerando os dados em painel apontaram evidências de estacionariedade. Já os resultados encontrados para as medidas de persistência evidenciam que o processo de integração entre os países está aumentando, ainda que lentamente. / The aim of this paper is to assess the degree of economic integration among the members of Mercosul (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) from July/1995 to September/2011, through the time-series analysis ex ante real interest rate differentials (rids). Unit root tests are performed to both panel and bilateral series, considering the presence of outliers and structural breaks. The differentials are then approximated by an AR(1) and its coefficients, estimated recursively and by rolling window, are analyzed. While bilateral unit root tests were not unanimous, panel data presented some evidence of stationarity. Persistence measures pointed to an increasing, albeit slow, integration.

<p>Essay 1 - To evaluate measures of expectations I examine and compare some of the most common methods for capturing expectations: the futures method which utilizes financial market prices, the VAR forecast method, and the survey method. I study average expectations on the Federal funds rate target, and the main findings can be summarized as follows: i) the survey measure and the futures measure are highly correlated; the correlation coefficient is 0.81 which indicates that the measures capture the same phenomenon, ii) the survey measure consistently overestimates the realized changes in the interest rate, iii) the VAR forecast method shows little resemblance with the other methods.</p><p>Essay 2 - This paper takes a critical look at available proxies of uncertainty. Two questions are addressed: (i) How do we evaluate these proxies given that subjective uncertainty is inherently unobservable? (ii) Is there such a thing as a general macroeconomic uncertainty? Using correlations, some narrative evidence and a factor analysis, we find that disagreement and stock market volatility proxies seem to be valid measures of uncertainty whereas probability forecast measures are not. This result is reinforced when we use our proxies in standard macroeconomic applications where uncertainty is supposed to be of importance. Uncertainty is positively correlated with the absolute value of the GDP-gap.</p><p>Essay 3 - The co-movements of exchange rates and interest rates as the economy responds to shocks is a potential source of deviations from uncovered interest rate parity. This paper investigates whether an open economy macro model with endogenous monetary policy is capable of explaining the exchange rate risk premium puzzle. When the central bank is engaged in interest rate smoothing, a negative relationship between exchange rate changes and interest differentials emerge for realistic parameter values without assuming an extremely large and variable risk premium as done in previous studies.</p><p>Essay 4 - This paper shows how market expectations as a function of the forecasting horizon can be constructed and used to analyse issues like how far in advance monetary policy actions are anticipated and how the market’s understanding of monetary policy has developed over time. On average about half of a monetary policy action is anticipated one month before a policy meeting. The share of fully anticipated FOMC policy decisions increase from less than 10% at the two-month horizon, to about 70% at the one-day horizon. The market ability to predict policy has improved substantially after 1999 as the fraction of fully anticipated meetings has quadrupled at the monthly horizon. This improvement can be described as an effect of increased central bank transparency.</p>

Essay 1 - To evaluate measures of expectations I examine and compare some of the most common methods for capturing expectations: the futures method which utilizes financial market prices, the VAR forecast method, and the survey method. I study average expectations on the Federal funds rate target, and the main findings can be summarized as follows: i) the survey measure and the futures measure are highly correlated; the correlation coefficient is 0.81 which indicates that the measures capture the same phenomenon, ii) the survey measure consistently overestimates the realized changes in the interest rate, iii) the VAR forecast method shows little resemblance with the other methods. Essay 2 - This paper takes a critical look at available proxies of uncertainty. Two questions are addressed: (i) How do we evaluate these proxies given that subjective uncertainty is inherently unobservable? (ii) Is there such a thing as a general macroeconomic uncertainty? Using correlations, some narrative evidence and a factor analysis, we find that disagreement and stock market volatility proxies seem to be valid measures of uncertainty whereas probability forecast measures are not. This result is reinforced when we use our proxies in standard macroeconomic applications where uncertainty is supposed to be of importance. Uncertainty is positively correlated with the absolute value of the GDP-gap. Essay 3 - The co-movements of exchange rates and interest rates as the economy responds to shocks is a potential source of deviations from uncovered interest rate parity. This paper investigates whether an open economy macro model with endogenous monetary policy is capable of explaining the exchange rate risk premium puzzle. When the central bank is engaged in interest rate smoothing, a negative relationship between exchange rate changes and interest differentials emerge for realistic parameter values without assuming an extremely large and variable risk premium as done in previous studies. Essay 4 - This paper shows how market expectations as a function of the forecasting horizon can be constructed and used to analyse issues like how far in advance monetary policy actions are anticipated and how the market’s understanding of monetary policy has developed over time. On average about half of a monetary policy action is anticipated one month before a policy meeting. The share of fully anticipated FOMC policy decisions increase from less than 10% at the two-month horizon, to about 70% at the one-day horizon. The market ability to predict policy has improved substantially after 1999 as the fraction of fully anticipated meetings has quadrupled at the monthly horizon. This improvement can be described as an effect of increased central bank transparency.

O objetivo deste estudo é verificar o grau de integração econômica entre os países membros do Mercosul (Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai) para o período de julho/1995 a setembro/2011, por meio da análise das séries de tempo dos diferenciais de taxa de juros reais (rids) ex ante. São desenvolvidos testes de estacionariedade nas séries bilaterais, considerando a presença de outliers e quebras estruturais, e nas séries em painel. Os rids são então aproximados por um processo AR(1) e avalia-se a evolução temporal desses coeficientes, estimados recursivamente e via janela móvel. Os resultados dos testes de raiz unitária bilateral apresentaram divergências entre si, enquanto os testes considerando os dados em painel apontaram evidências de estacionariedade. Já os resultados encontrados para as medidas de persistência evidenciam que o processo de integração entre os países está aumentando, ainda que lentamente. / The aim of this paper is to assess the degree of economic integration among the members of Mercosul (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) from July/1995 to September/2011, through the time-series analysis ex ante real interest rate differentials (rids). Unit root tests are performed to both panel and bilateral series, considering the presence of outliers and structural breaks. The differentials are then approximated by an AR(1) and its coefficients, estimated recursively and by rolling window, are analyzed. While bilateral unit root tests were not unanimous, panel data presented some evidence of stationarity. Persistence measures pointed to an increasing, albeit slow, integration.