This dissertation is composed of three essays and analyzes the effects of both health outcomes and international trade on economic development and growth. In the first chapter, I develop a theoretical model using a Nelson-Phelps framework in order to establish a causal relationship between health outcomes and economic growth. I also econometrically test this approach to quantify the magnitude of the effects observed. Using the international epidemiological transition as a baseline and instrumental variable regression, I find that both life expectancy growth rates and initial levels of life expectancy are the main drivers of economic growth, and improvements in both indicators lead to significant, positive changes in the income per-capita growth rate. In the second chapter, I design an overlapping generations model that showcases how individuals determine their optimal fertility, education, labor supply, and life-cycle consumption decisions under uncertain survival probabilities. Under partial equilibrium, exogenous shocks in mortality lead to explicit changes in economic growth and development through the above mechanisms, but under general equilibrium, predictions are ambiguous due to offsetting substitution and income effects. I complement the theory with an empirical analysis, constructing age-specific birth rates, age-specific death rates, and life expectancies from the Demographic and Health Surveys in 36 Sub-Saharan African countries. Using system-GMM estimation, the results show that improvements in health will have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth and development. In the third chapter, I develop an analysis similar to Hausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik (2007), whose main argument is that what countries export has significant predicting power on its economic growth and development. Giving greater transparency to both the data collection and the empirical methodology, I replicate their research and instead use imports as a robustness check. The results confirm previous studies and shows that exports, not imports, matter for economic growth. Thus, we conclude that the type and quality of goods in which a country specializes and exports is directly related to its subsequent economic performance.

This study analyzes the share price reactions to real estate development and building/construction materials corporations in relation to FIRB rule changes. It appears companies as a whole were indifferent to the rule changes; however individual securities returns were wildly different. These findings suggest that the FIRB rule changes had a mixed effect on different corporations possibly based on their exposure to the Australian real estate market.

This dissertation investigates the dynamics of mean and volatility spillovers from the U.S. and three large (regional) Asia-Pacific stock markets to ten small (local) ones from June 2008 to May 2013. After a brief introduction to the main purposes and contributions of my research in Chapter 1, I examine the impact of lagged American and regional returns on the local markets in Chapter 2. By building up a univariate autoregressive model and treating lagged U.S. and regional returns as exogenous variables, I find that the local markets have statistically significant exposure to lagged returns of their own and the U.S. market only. The empirical results suggest that lagged American returns have exerted considerable mean spillover impact upon most of the local markets, whereas the large Asia-Pacific markets involved in this study have few such impacts. I study the linkage between the U.S. market and each of the regional markets in Chapter 3 by employing two specifications of the bivariate GARCH process—the BEKK and general dynamic covariance (DC) models—to capture common features of equity return data. Based on the results of carefully constructed diagnostic tests, the BEKK model is demonstrated to be more appropriate for the U.S.–China and U.S.–Japan cases, and the dynamic covariance model for the U.S.–Australia case. In Chapter 4, I discuss time-varying correlation of a local market with the U.S. market and with each regional market by proposing three Markov-switching shock spillover models. A comparison of model performance is drawn based on a series of model selection criteria. In fourteen cases, the local market is found to be more sensitive to regional shocks. Disturbances from two regional markets account for a higher proportion of local variance than those of U.S. origin. I conclude that the regional center, although having little mean spillover effect upon the local markets, has become increasingly influential in volatility transmission. Possible extended studies in the future as well as main findings in the preceding chapters are summarized in Chapter 5.

This dissertation introduced a method to construct a new measure for trade flows within a region using nighttime lights. After analyzing the relation between lights data and other proxies of economic human activity, I employed light data and econometric techniques to estimate the bilateral trade between any two regions around the world. Using these estimations, I estimated the overall internal trade volume for all countries. Moreover, I estimated the effect of internal trade within a state of the United States on the state’s income. The first essay proposed nighttime lights as an alternative proxy for economic activity to be used in gravity regressions. Due to the well-known problems in the measurement of gross domestic or regional products, gravity regressions based on both international and intranational trade data suffer from potential biases. At both international and intranational levels, log nighttime lights positively and significantly enter the gravity regressions (with a coefficient of roughly one) that explain at least about half of the variance in exports. The results were shown to be robust to the inclusion of several control variables and the consideration of predicted trade flows. Trade within a nation and internal distance are variables known to play key roles in explaining home bias and the distance puzzle in international trade literature, but data on these measures are limited to only a few countries. To address this problem, in the second essay, I constructed micro-founded measures of internal trade and internal distances from satellite data on nighttime lights. By estimating the gravity equation coefficients using the simulated method of distance estimation, I constructed the bilateral trade flow at subnational scale and aggregated it to overall internal trade. I found my internal trade measure is highly correlated with its benchmark, the difference between GDP and total exports; however, I showed it has more information and is a more precise measure for developed countries, which have a large amount of non-tradable services included in their national income account data. The internal distance measure is generated as the lights-weighted average distances between the states within a country. While my internal distance measure is largely correlated with its alternative, which is constructed based on city-level population data, it does not suffer from the uncertainty surrounding population data. Correlation between trade and income cannot identify the effect of trade because of the endogeneity problem. The third essay examined this relationship at subnational level and by focusing on instrumenting trade via time varying geographic factors. Proximity and economic size are determinants of trade that are uncorrelated with other income determinants. This experiment not only confirmed the effect of interregional trade, but also provided evidence that intraregional trade has a large and statistically significant impact on income. I found, however, that the effect of both trade measures is statistically similar; a one percentage point increase in the interregional and intraregional trade ratio increases income per person by 2 to 4 percent.

Using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, this paper examines differences in entrepreneurial perceptions (fear of failure, opportunity perception, self-efficacy, public opinion) between CEE and non-CEE countries, before and after the 2008 recession, as well as the effects of these perceptions on entrepreneurial motivation and overall levels of activity. The results suggest that CEE countries have systematically more pessimistic outlooks in terms of fear of failure and opportunity perception, but no difference from non-CEE countries in self-efficacy and public opinion. Additionally, most of the difference in fear of failure and opportunity perception, along with an increase in necessity-motivated entrepreneurship, comes after the recession, suggesting less durability and resilience of optimistic entrepreneurial perceptions in CEE countries. Finally, there is evidence of a higher threshold for a perceived opportunity to become a business reality in these post-socialist CEE countries.

This paper uses an event study in combination with Granger causality tests to analyze the effects of capital control liberalizations in China. The AH Premium between the Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and the Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges in addition to the total returns of the Shanghai Composite are all used to measure the effect of each event. The results are most significant in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong AH premium, but the overall market reaction to each liberalization event was minimal. The Granger causality tests studied relationships between the Shanghai Composite, the S&P 500, the FTSE 100, the Hang Seng, and the All-Ordinaries Index. Results showed the strongest Granger causal relationships between Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Australia. Overall, the Granger causality results are inconsistent with the theory that increased currency liberalization in China causes increased integration with other major global markets.

Si la notion de pays à fiscalité privilégiée est souvent employée, il reste malaisé de définir ce qu'elle désigne. Au sens le plus général, il s'agit des pays dans lesquels des résidents étrangers placent leur argent, afin d'éviter d'être imposés sur leur territoire d'origine. L'histoire des pays à fiscalité privilégiée n'est ni linéaire ni continue. Elle est faite de ruptures et de mutations. Ces territoires off-shore jouent ainsi des rôles économiques et politiques différents selon les époques. Leur évolution a été telle qu'ils sont devenus les piliers de la mondialisation économique contemporaine construite depuis près d'un siècle autour de pays, d'acteurs et de stratégies différentes.Ainsi, les acteurs économiques internationaux profitent, à bien des égards, de l'attractivité de ces territoires. Les outils mis à leur disposition sont nombreux et les montages d'optimisation fiscale complexes. Au cours des derniers siècles, les États ont tenté de maîtriser puis de diminuer le rôle des territoires off-shore, sans une grande conviction, ni une persévérance notable. La crise des subprimes a cependant donné lieu à l'émergence d'une lutte accrue contre les pays à fiscalité privilégiée, notamment, par le G20. L'objectif est de mettre fin à toutes formes de secret à des fins fiscales. Une évolution, est, incontestablement en cours, mais ses résultats sont loin d'être garantis. A ce jour, les pays à fiscalité privilégiée et les outils qui y sont associés demeurent très attractifs pour les acteurs économiques internationaux. / While the concept of tax haven is a term used extensively, it remains difficult to define. It general terms, it refers to countries where foreign companies and individual alike invest their money in order to avoid tax in their home country. The history of tax haven is neither linear nor continuous. It is made of ruptures and mutations. These offshore jurisdictions are playing different economics and politics roles. Their evolution has been such that they have become the pillars of the economic globalization built since a century around different countries, actors and strategies. International economic actors benefit in many ways from the attractiveness of tax havens. International companies, individuals and banks use offshore tax haven to reduce their tax burden, avoid regulatory pressures, or hide a high level of debts in order to provide supposedly healthy financial statements. Many and complex tools are available to them in order to lower their burden. Evolution is undoubtedly underway but the results are far from guaranteed. Until now, tax havens remain attractive for international economic actors.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2015-12-07T11:29:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 viniciusdeazevedocoutofirme.pdf: 2419643 bytes, checksum: 7c6efd72d9520c77b85963e2233bab99 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2015-12-07T21:39:34Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 viniciusdeazevedocoutofirme.pdf: 2419643 bytes, checksum: 7c6efd72d9520c77b85963e2233bab99 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-12-07T21:39:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 viniciusdeazevedocoutofirme.pdf: 2419643 bytes, checksum: 7c6efd72d9520c77b85963e2233bab99 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-27 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Esta tese é composta por três ensaios que analisaram questões inerentes à prática antidumping (AD), com enfoque na economia brasileira. O primeiro ensaio analisou a evolução na utilização do instrumento antidumping (AD) após a rodada Uruguai, entre 1995 e 2012. Para tanto, buscou-se verificar quais seriam os principais usuários deste recurso e a tendência de uso associada a diversas economias. Testou-se ainda a hipótese de que países poderiam convergir em termos da aberturas de casos AD e de que efeitos espaciais estariam envolvidos neste processo. Por fim, foi criado um critério para identificar países que favorecem os setores mais competitivos através da prática AD. Os resultados revelaram que o Brasil foi o único grande usuário que esteve na contramão da tendência geral de queda na abertura de casos AD. Enquanto isso, a China foi o principal alvo deste mecanismo e uma das poucas a apresentar uma tendência de crescimento neste quesito. Verificou-se que há convergência no uso deste instrumento apenas quando o PIB é considerado e que Turquia e União Européia parecem favorecer as indústrias mais competitivas através da prática AD. O segundo ensaio analisou os principais determinantes da abertura de processos antidumping utilizando dados em painel contendo informações de 46 usuários AD durante 1995 a 2013. Para tanto, foi realizada uma extensa revisão dos trabalhos empíricos desta área a fim de elaborar um modelo abrangente, contendo diversas variáveis consideradas relevantes. As estimações, realizadas via Poisson ou Binomial Negativo, revelaram que uma diminuição nas importações, um crescimento na renda externa, uma redução na renda interna, uma desvalorização cambial ou uma melhora nas transações correntes poderia reduzir os casos AD. Enquanto isso, países que pertencem às faixas de renda mais altas, que adotam elevadas tarifas de importação, que são alvos frequentes de casos AD e que são exportadores intensivos de produtos de metais, químicos e plásticos tenderiam a abrir mais casos AD. Além disso, não pertencer à OCDE e fazer parte da Europa ou da Ásia Central inibe a abertura de casos AD. O terceiro ensaio analisou a influência de fatores macroeconômicos sobre a abertura de processos antidumping no Brasil e na Argentina. Notavelmente, somente um trabalho deste tipo havia sido realizado para um destes países (Brasil) e os autores rejeitaram o efeito de fatores macroeconômicos. Como este tipo de análise geralmente não conta com grandes amostras, o que limita a inclusão de variáveis no modelo, optou-se por selecionar as variáveis relevantes com base no teste de Sala-i-Martin (1997), fato que permitiu superar os demais trabalhos no que se refere à inclusão de variáveis. Conforme recomenda-se, os modelos foram estimados via regressão de Poisson. Os resultados revelaram que tanto o Brasil quanto a Argentina são afetados por fatores macroeconômicos. Contudo, os modelos tradicionais (agregados) tenderiam a negar ou minimizar tal influência sobre a economia brasileira e supervalorizar este efeito na Argentina. Assim, a utilização de dados desagregados se mostrou útil a este tipo de análise. / This thesis consists of three studies that analyzed the use of antidumping (AD), focusing on the Brazilian economy. The first article verified how the main economies have used the AD after the Uruguay round, between 1995 and 2012. Therefore, some techniques were employed in order to reveal the main users of this instrument and the trend of using associated to each one of them. We also tested the hypothesis that countries could converge in terms of the number of AD cases and if spatial effects could be involved in this process. Finally, a criterion was established in order to identify countries that usually favor the most competitive sectors through AD practice. The results revealed that Brazil was the only heavy user that was counter to the general downward trend verified on the AD cases. Meanwhile, China was not only the main target of this mechanism but the cases against this country showed a growth trend also. Furthermore, we found convergence in the use of this instrument only when the economic weight of these countries was considered and our index indicated that Turkey and the European Union seem to be favoring the most competitive industries through the AD practice. The second article analyzed the main determinants of opening of AD cases using a panel data containing information of 46 AD users during 1995 to 2013. For this purpose, an extensive review of the empirical work of this area was performed in order to develop a comprehensive model, containing several variables considered relevant. The estimates carried out by Poisson or Negative Binomial, revealed that a decrease in imports, an increase in foreign income, a reduction in domestic income, currency devaluation or an improvement in the current account could reduce AD cases. Meanwhile, countries that belong to the higher income groups, which adopt high import tariffs, which are frequent targets of AD cases and are intensive exporters of metal products, chemicals and plastics, tend to open more AD cases. Also, countries that do not belong to the OECD and those from Europe or Central Asia tend to use less AD measures. The third article analyzed the influence of macroeconomic factors on the opening of AD cases in Brazil and in Argentina. Notably, such research had been done only to one of these countries (Brazil) and the authors rejected any macroeconomic influences. Since this type of analysis usually does not have large samples, the relevant variables were selected using the Sala-i-Martin (1997) test. This procedure allowed us to surpass the other articles regarding the inclusion of variables. As recommended, the models were estimated by Poisson regression. It was evidenced by the results that both Brazil and Argentina are affected by macroeconomic factors. However, the traditional (aggregated) models would tend to deny or minimize such influence on Brazilian economy and overestimate this effect in Argentina. Thus, the use of disaggregated data seems to be useful in this type of analysis.

<p>My three chapters are all related to the study of immigrants in how they impact the US</p> <p>economy. The first two chapters look at international students in particular and how they</p> <p>impact their domestic peers and the local college towns they reside in. The third chapter</p> <p>looks at immigrant workers and their effect on native workers’ propensity to consolidate to</p> <p>form labor unions.</p> <p>To be specific, the first chapter, titled How International students Affect Domestic Students’</p> <p>Achievement: evidence from the OPT STEM-extension, looks at the role of immigrants</p> <p>in shaping the educational outcome of domestic students pursuing STEM degrees</p> <p>in the United States. By utilizing the mass influx of international students after an immigration</p> <p>policy change (OPT-STEM-extension) in 2008, I investigate the peer effects that</p> <p>international students have on grades, attrition, and first-year salary of STEM graduates.</p> <p>I account for the common selection issues present in the peer-effects literature by looking</p> <p>at the yearly exogenous change in international student share in a specific course-instructor</p> <p>pair and controlling for rich individual ability and demographics. This was made possible</p> <p>by having access to administrative data of a land-grant university with one of the highest</p> <p>international student enrollments in the US. I find that international students tend to lower</p> <p>grades and persistence of domestic students in STEM. Still, this negative effect is more than</p> <p>compensated for in the increase in salary due to spill-over effects in learning for those who</p> <p>persist and graduate.</p> <p>My research aims to eventually aid policymakers in both the local educational institutions</p> <p>and the federal government. To this end, I have extended my analysis of international</p> <p>students by shifting my focus outside the classroom to the local economies of the college</p> <p>campuses. In my second chapter, titled International Students’ Effect on Local Businesses, I</p> <p>use the zip code-level Census data on small businesses to see how the influx of international</p> <p>students affected the regional college campuses. I find that international students have a</p> <p>significantly positive effect on job creation in the local economy. To my knowledge, this is</p> <p>the first data-driven-causal analysis of international students on local businesses in the US.</p> <p>12</p> <p>My third chapter is a co-authored work with Alex Nowrasteh and Artem Samiahulin</p> <p>titled Immigrants Reduce Unionization in the US. Here we attempt to relate immigrants to</p> <p>a more traditional labor economics topic: labor unions. Although there is a vast amount of</p> <p>literature on unions, we found that the literature that causally estimates immigrants’ effect</p> <p>on unions is severely lacking in the US setting. Using a combination of representative data</p> <p>such as the CPS, Census, and the ACS, we show that immigrants accounted for about onethird</p> <p>of the decline in unions since the 1980s. We based our paper on the theoretical model</p> <p>of Naylor and Cripps  1993  and borrowed George Borjas’s skill-cell method for our empirical</p> <p>method.(Borjas  2003 )</p>

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