This dissertation explores the implications of natural disaster risk for access to financial services, especially credit. Its results show that disasters can dramatically undermine the ability of financial intermediaries (FIs) to lend after an event, increasing the cost of the disaster and delaying recovery. Moreover, the risk of natural disasters discourages investment in vulnerable regions and economic sectors and so slows economic development. Financial risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance can help maintain lending following an event. While many international development projects have targeted disaster insurance markets to households, managing disaster-related credit risk may be done more effectively through insurance products for FIs. Additionally, prudential supervision and the credit risk rating methods of investors in developing and emerging economies are dominated by developed country standards that overlook natural disaster risks. Public and private interests align in the need to tailor such standards and so enhance the effectiveness with which vulnerable FIs manage disaster risk.

<p>This paper considers the fast changing developments and changes in relation to sustainable development law with its three pillars, and the needs of international development. The focus of the analysis is on the connection between international economic, international social and international environmental law which constitute sustainable development law at their intersection point, and will show how they can be the paths to sustainable peace. As sustainable development law is emerging as international concern, the qualitative approach of this paper will show its pillars separately and their connection under different conditions. This paper also demonstrates that this approach is gaining ground in the literature, and it contends that it is a more appropriate way of addressing the problems of economic, social and environmental. In support of this argument, the paper looks initially how sustainable development law fits to be the path to sustainable peace within the contemporary world which is full of economic, social and environmental conflicts. Secondly, it provides a theoretical framework how sustainable development law with its pillars can lead the world to sustainable peace. Thirdly, the three pillars, (-international economic law, international social law and international environmental law-), will be elaborated in relation to their intersection and sustainable development law.</p>

Chapters 2-3: A global games approach to sovereign debt crises The first chapters present a model that investigates the risks involved when a fiscal authority attempts to roll-over a stock of debt and there is the potential for coordination failure by investors. A continuum of investors, after receiving signals about the authority's willingness to repay, decides whether to roll-over the stock of debt. If an insufficient proportion of investors participates, the authority defaults. With one fiscal authority, private information results in a deterministic outcome. When a public signal is available, the model behaves in a similar manner to a sunspot model. In line with much of the global games literature, improving public information has an ambiguous effect on welfare. Finally, the model is extended to include a second fiscal authority, which captures a similar sunspot result and illustrates the potential for externalities in fiscal policy. Lower debt in the less indebted authority can push a more indebted authority into crisis. Lower debt makes the healthier authority relatively more attractive, which causes the investors to treat the heavily indebted authority more conservatively. In certain circumstances, this is sufficient to cause a coordination failure. Chapter 4: A debt game with correlated information This chapter models of debt roll-over where a continuum of investors receives correlated signals on whether a debtor is solvent or insolvent. The investors face a collective action problem: a sufficient proportion of investors must agree to participate in the debt roll-over for it to be a success. If an insufficient proportion of investors participates in the deal, the debtor will default. The game has a unique switching strategy, which results in global uncertainty being preserved. The ex ante distribution of play (conditional on the true solvency of the debtor) follows a Vasicek credit distribution. The ex ante probability of a debt crisis is affected by the exogenous model parameters. Of particular interest is the observation that increasing private noise unambiguously reduces the probability of a debt crisis. Unsurprisingly, increasing the fiscal space or return on debt also decreases the probability of a crisis. Chapter 5: Bailouts and politics The final chapter examines the political-economic equilibrium in a two-period model with overlapping generations and a financial sector, which is inspired by the model in Tabellini (1989). The public policy is chosen under majority rule by the agents currently alive. It demonstrates that the bailout policy adopted in the second period has important effects on the bank's financing decisions in the first period. By adopting a riskier financing regime (i.e. higher leverage) in the first period, the older generation can extract consumption from the younger generation in the second period. Sovereign backstops of the financial sector are state-contingent: they can appear costless for long periods of time but eventually result in a socialization of private-sector debt. It is this mechanism that makes implementing capital requirements costly to investors yet beneficial to the younger generation. The model also highlights two important issues: (i) bank capital is endogenous and (ii) proposed resolution mechanisms must be politically credible. It suggests that a major benefit of increasing and narrowing equity-capital requirements or increasing liquidity ratios is that they are implemented ex ante and therefore available either to absorb losses in the event of a crisis or to reduce the possibility of large drops in asset values. Finally, this chapter also provides a structure by which to interpret the stylized facts of Calomiris et al. (2014): that more populist political institutions are associated with more fragile financial systems.

This thesis demonstrates that consumer leverage can contribute to financial crises such as the subprime mortgage crisis characterised by increased bankruptcy prospects and tightened credit access. A recession may follow even when the leveraged sector is not a production sector and can be triggered by seeming positive events such as a technological innovation and a relaxation of borrowing conditions. The first preliminary chapter updates the Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) approach with financial frictions in the production sector to a two-sector model with consumption and housing. It shows that credit frictions in the capital financing decisions of housing firms are not sufficient to capture the negative consumer experience with falling housing prices and relaxed credit access during the recession. The second chapter brings the model closer to the subprime mortgage crisis by shifting credit constraints to the consumer mortgage market. Increased supply of houses lowers asset prices and reduces the value of the real estate collateral used in the mortgage which in turn worsens the leverage of indebted consumers. A relaxation of borrowing conditions turns credit-constrained households into a potential source of disturbances themselves when market optimism allows them to raise their leverage with little downpayment. Both cases demonstrate that although households are not production agents, their worsening debt levels can trigger a lasting financial downturn. The third chapter develops a chained mortgage contracts model where both homeowner consumers and the financial institutions that securitize their mortgage loan are credit-constrained. Adding credit constraints to the financial sector that provides housing mortgages creates opportunities for risk sharing where banks shift some of the downturn onto indebted consumers in order to hasten their own recovery. This consequence is especially evident in the case of relaxed credit access for banks. Financial institutions repair their debt position relatively fast at the expense of consumers whose borrowing ability is squeezed for a long period despite the fact that they may not be the source of the disturbance. The result mirrors the recent subprime mortgage crisis characterised by a sharp but brief decline for banks and a protracted recovery for mortgaged households.

Many regions of the world would like to replicate the financial and monetary integration of the European Monetary Union (EMU). Member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have shown an interest in such an arrangement. ASEAN is a political, cultural, and economic association that includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Many of these nations are experiencing rapid economic development while others are still relatively poor and under developed. As such, they appear to be an unlikely group for currency unification. Older studies suggest that multiple currency union groupings may be possible in the short run that could be unified into a whole at an unspecified time in the future. The issue has been studied for some time and appeared defunct with the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis. More than a decade has passed and another more global financial crisis has ensued leaving many Asian countries in better shape than their highly developed trading partners in the west. This leads to the need for further examination of the possible unification of some or all ASEAN members into a Regional Currency Arrangement. This dissertation evaluates the readiness of the ASEAN nations for monetary union using data from the post Asian Financial Crisis period. Results of a formal G-PPP test show the area is an optimum currency area. Analysis of other criteria shows incredible diversity across the countries in the region that would make unification a challenge. Coordination of monetary policy would be most difficult given the variety of inflation rates and differences in depth of financial system development as explored in chapter 2. Trade has increased in the region leading to better linkages among economies but the data shows that reaching full integration of all countries by the 2020 deadline without disruptions in some economies may still be difficult.

A presente dissertação pretende analisar a terminologia da Economia Internacional, mais especificamente, estudar sua constituição morfológica e a presença de relações sinonímicas. Para tanto, além de um embasamento teórico inicial referente à Terminologia, aos processos de formação de palavras e às relações sinonímicas, foi necessária a elaboração de um corpus de análise, formado por termos coletados de livros utilizados na disciplina de Economia Internacional da FEA-USP. Em seguida, realizou-se a análise dos processos de formação morfológica das unidades terminológicas coletadas. Conforme foi possível perceber, num domínio especializado, o falante utiliza os mesmos recursos oferecidos pelo sistema para nomear a realidade. Entretanto, alguns processos, como a formação sintagmática, destacam-se pela produtividade. De fato, este estudo demonstra que o processo de formação sintagmática é extremamente fecundo na terminologia da Economia Internacional. Ademais, observou-se também a presença de relações sinonímicas entre os termos e verificamos que esta é bastante recorrente e expressiva. Com isso, comprova-se a existência da sinonímia no léxico especializado, o que era negado pelos adeptos da Terminologia tradicional. Com base na análise dos dados e nas reflexões teóricas apontadas, é possível demonstrar que as palavras de âmbito especializado funcionam como as demais palavras do léxico da língua. / The present dissertation aims to analyze the terminology of International Economics, more precisely, to study its morphological constitution as well as the presence of synonymous relationships. In order to do so, besides an initial theoretical grounding relating to Terminology, to the word formation processes and to the synonymous relationships, it was necessary the elaboration of a corpus of analysis, which was composed of terms collected from books used in the subject of International Economics at FEA-USP. Subsequently, an analysis of the morphological formation processes of the collected terminological units was carried out. As it has been possible to notice, in a specialized domain, the speaker uses the same resources as in the general language to name the reality. Nevertheless, some processes, such as the syntagmatic formation, stand out because of their productivity. Indeed, this study shows that the process of syntagmatic formation is extremely prolific in the terminology of International Economics. Furthermore, the presence of synonymous relationships was also observed and we have confirmed that synonymy is remarkably common and expressive in terminology, which was denied by the former adepts of traditional Terminology. Finally, based on the analysis of the data and on the theoretical reflections, it has been possible to demonstrate that the terms of specialty areas work in the same way as the other words of the lexicon of a given language.

Este trabalho busca estudar a trajetória da economia portuguesa ao longo dos vinte anos de participação no Bloco Econômico Europeu, acompanhando as mudanças em sua estrutura e as consequências que o processo trouxe para o país como um todo. Desde o pedido de adesão de Portugal à Comunidade Econômica Europeia em 1977, até à assinatura do tratado em 1985, decorreram oito anos de negociações, assinaturas de acordos e declarações onde o país lentamente se adequou às exigências para que pudesse ser integrado ao bloco. A situação econômica do país se alterou significativamente nos vinte anos em que integra a Comunidade Europeia. Adicionalmente, a adesão à unificação da moeda, com a adoção do euro em 1994, implicou na aceitação de uma autoridade monetária única, retirando do Estado uma importante ferramenta de controle macroeconômico que passa a ser utilizada de modo supranacional. / This work aims to present a study on the history of the Portuguese economy over the twenty years of her participation in the European economic block, following the changes in its structure and the consequences that the process has brought to the country as a whole. Since the request of Portugal to join the European Economic Community in 1977 until the signing of the treaty in 1985, eight years of negotiations, agreements and declarations passed by, in which the country slowly adapted itself to the demands that could be integrated into the block. The country\'s economic situation has changed significantly in twenty years as it was incorporated to the European Community. Additionally, adherence to a unified currency, with the adoption of the euro in 1994, implied an acceptance of a single monetary authority, depriving the state of an important tool of macroeconomic management which is now used in a supranational level.

A presente dissertação pretende analisar a terminologia da Economia Internacional, mais especificamente, estudar sua constituição morfológica e a presença de relações sinonímicas. Para tanto, além de um embasamento teórico inicial referente à Terminologia, aos processos de formação de palavras e às relações sinonímicas, foi necessária a elaboração de um corpus de análise, formado por termos coletados de livros utilizados na disciplina de Economia Internacional da FEA-USP. Em seguida, realizou-se a análise dos processos de formação morfológica das unidades terminológicas coletadas. Conforme foi possível perceber, num domínio especializado, o falante utiliza os mesmos recursos oferecidos pelo sistema para nomear a realidade. Entretanto, alguns processos, como a formação sintagmática, destacam-se pela produtividade. De fato, este estudo demonstra que o processo de formação sintagmática é extremamente fecundo na terminologia da Economia Internacional. Ademais, observou-se também a presença de relações sinonímicas entre os termos e verificamos que esta é bastante recorrente e expressiva. Com isso, comprova-se a existência da sinonímia no léxico especializado, o que era negado pelos adeptos da Terminologia tradicional. Com base na análise dos dados e nas reflexões teóricas apontadas, é possível demonstrar que as palavras de âmbito especializado funcionam como as demais palavras do léxico da língua. / The present dissertation aims to analyze the terminology of International Economics, more precisely, to study its morphological constitution as well as the presence of synonymous relationships. In order to do so, besides an initial theoretical grounding relating to Terminology, to the word formation processes and to the synonymous relationships, it was necessary the elaboration of a corpus of analysis, which was composed of terms collected from books used in the subject of International Economics at FEA-USP. Subsequently, an analysis of the morphological formation processes of the collected terminological units was carried out. As it has been possible to notice, in a specialized domain, the speaker uses the same resources as in the general language to name the reality. Nevertheless, some processes, such as the syntagmatic formation, stand out because of their productivity. Indeed, this study shows that the process of syntagmatic formation is extremely prolific in the terminology of International Economics. Furthermore, the presence of synonymous relationships was also observed and we have confirmed that synonymy is remarkably common and expressive in terminology, which was denied by the former adepts of traditional Terminology. Finally, based on the analysis of the data and on the theoretical reflections, it has been possible to demonstrate that the terms of specialty areas work in the same way as the other words of the lexicon of a given language.

Venture capital (VC), a historically American industry, has been in the process of globalizing in recent years. International venture capital flows (investing outside of one’s own country) have grown substantially over the past 30 years and even more dramatically in just the past decade. Previous research has mostly highlighted the determinants of where capital flows. However, research on the factors in a VC’s home country that affect investments abroad has been underdeveloped. To address this gap, this paper explores the impact of home country economic conditions on VCs’ propensity to invest abroad. I find that higher interest rates and economic wellbeing in a country (as measured by GDP growth and stock market capitalization to GDP) are associated with less deal flow abroad and, that higher foreign exchange rates are related to greater deal flow. I also note an interesting divergence in the role of these factors between VCs located in countries that exhibit different levels of international investing experience. My research indicates that VCs’ home country economic conditions do play a role in their decisions to invest abroad and suggests that these considerations may be different depending on the experience level of the VC industry in the firm’s country.

This dissertation investigates food safety regulations and international trade of agricultural products dividing into three aspects: the signalling effect from U.S. strict food safety regulations on U.S. vegetable exports, political determinants of sanitary and photosanitary non-tariff barriers, and the impact of trade barriers on employment in developing countries. In chapter 2, we investigate the impact of high U.S. maximum residue limit (MRL) standards on U.S vegetable exports to 102 countries utilizing the hierarchical model. MRL, which is one of non-tariff barriers with respect to food safety, is applied to home and foreign countries at the same time. Thus, firms in countries with higher food safety standards are expected to have a competitive advantage from the ‘signalling effect’. The results show that high MRL standards in the U.S. have a positive impact on U.S. vegetable exports, indicating the ‘signalling effect’ from the strict U.S. domestic MRL standards. The results provide policy makers with insights into how strict food safety regulations of the home country can be considered as a catalyst for increasing competitiveness in international markets. In chapter 3, we examine the political determinants of SPS notifications using a nonlinear threshold model with possible threshold variables (GDP per capita and tariff rate). This article finds no threshold values in both variables of GDP per capita and tariff rate. Our results also show that GDP per capita has a positive relationship with SPS notifications that are one of proxy variables for food quality. That implies the importance of quality competition in agriculture and food sectors. Our finding also represents no significant effect of tariff on SPS notifications. This indicates that a law of constant protection, presenting an inverse relationship between tariff and non-tariff barriers, is not satisfied in the agricultural and food sectors. In chapter 4, we investigate the impact of tariff and SPS barriers on food manufacturers’ skilled and unskilled employment in developing countries utilizing a structural equation model. Results show that both tariff and SPS barriers have a positive effect on unskilled labor employment in developing countries, while trade barriers are not associated with skilled labor employment. This implies that Hecksher-Ohlin theory, presenting labor abundant countries have a comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries such as food, explains well our results since developing countries are abundant in low-skilled labor. We also find that the age of food firm in developing countries is positively related to skilled employment; however, no relationship with unskilled employment. This implies that older food firms change their production process from labor intensive to capital or machine intensive.