Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, Riverside, 1988. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 241-255).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Harvard University, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis--Tampere. / Fi. Extra t.p. with thesis statement inserted. Summary in English. Includes bibliographical references (p. 348-359).

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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Theory states that if a country opens its markets to free trade that it facilitates the better utilization of resources for all the parties participating in the agreement resulting to a relative lowering of production cost, the increase in export earnings, larger markets to benefit from economies of scale and subsequent investment in production facilities will increase employment and general welfare. Namibia has three major free trade agreements or economic integration arrangements namely the Southem Africa Customs Union (SACU), the Cotonou agreement defining its export regime to the European Union and the South Africa European Union Trade Development and Co-operation Agreement defining its import regime via the Southem African Customs Union and the African Growth and Opportunities Act defining its relationship with the United States of America. These agreements are at varying levels of integration with the Southem African Customs Union in place already in 1920. Namibia uses taxes on international trade as a primary source of state income (28% to 32 %). As part of its membership to the SACU's Common External Pool revenue distribution, Namibia is compensated for not being able to charge import taxes on South African imports. South Africa has determined trade policy for SACU since its exception and used tariffs more as a form of protection of its own industries, rather than a source of state income. The lowering of tariffs on EU imports by means of the SA EU TDCA as well as WTO obligations will see the reduction of state income of Namibia of an estimated amount of N$ 480 million [Schade 20051. This will have dire consequence for the Namibian economy as the deficit of the state budget is already 4.7 % as compared to a norm of 3%. In this study the growth in export earnings as well as the investment response of the various free trade agreements have been analysed. Contrary to theory, economic integration has not led to the desired growth in export earnings as well as significant investment responses due to preferential access provided by these agreements. Significant growth in exports is limited to specific sectors, notably fish to the European Union and apparel to the USA. Investments were also limited to these sectors. Free trade and preferential access did not lead to the diversification of the Namibian economy and has on the contrary inflicted severe blows to the critical beef industry in the near past and over the long term has led to trade diversion towards South Africa as well as the European Union. Investments and increases in export earnings are too little to offset the reduction of state income by the liberalization of tariffs and will result in Namibia becoming more marginalised if it does not counter the situation by better trade policies that are to be formulated along with the other SACU members. These policies will take time to be concluded as of yet none of the institutions of SACU has become operational. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die teorie van vryhandel bepaal as 'n land sy mark oopmaak vir vryhandel dat dit sal lei tot die verbeterde benutting van hulpbronne vir al die partye tot 'n vryhandelsooreenskoms deur middel van die verlaging van produksiekoste, die verhoging van uitvoerinkomste, die vergroting van markte wat kan voordeel trek uit skaal van, ekonomieë asook die verhoging van gepaardgaande belegging wat werkskepping en die algemene welsyn sal verhoog. Namibie is deel van drie vryhandelsooreenkomste of ekonomiese integrasie samewerking naamlik die Suider Afrikaanse Doane Unie (SADU), die Cotonou verdrag wat sy uitvoer na die Europese Unie bepaal, die Suid Afrika Europese Unie Handel, Ontwikkeling en Samewerkingsooreenkoms (SA EU TOCA) wat sy invoere vanaf Suid Afrika via die SADU bepaal en die African Growth and Opportunffies Act wat sy uitvoere na die VSA bepaal. Hierdie ooreenkomste is op verskillende vlakke van ekonomiese integrasie met SADU wat alreeds sedert 1920 bestaan. Namibie gebruik belasting op intemasionale handel as 'n primere bron van staatsinkomste (28% tot 32 %). Namibia word as lid van SADU gekompenseer deur middel van die Gemeenskaplike Eksteme Inkomste Poel vir die gebrek om invoerbelasting op Suid Afrikaanse produkte te hef. Suid-Afrika het sedert die ontstaan van SADU die handelsbeleid daarvan bepaal en het tariewe gebruik om sy eie industrieë te beskerm in plaas van 'n bron van staatsinkomste. Die verlaging van tariewe deur middel van die SA EU TOCA asook verpligtinge van die Wereldhandelsorganisasie sal tot gevolg hê die vermindering van Namibiese staatsinkomste van N$ 480 miljoen, Dit sal geweldige negatiewe gevolge inhou vir Namibie wat alreeds met 'n tekort op die begroting van 4.7% sit in vergelyking met 'n aanvaarde norm van 3%. In hierdie werkstuk is die groei in uitvoerverdienste asook die beleggingsreaksie van die verskillende ooreenskomste ondersoek. Daar is gevind dat desnieteenstaande die teorie, ekonomiese integrasie nie gelei het tot die verlangde groei in uitvoere of beleggings nie. Uitsondenike groei in uitvoere is beperk tot spesifieke sektore naamlik vis na die Europese Unie en klerasie na die VSA. Beleggings is ook beperk tot hierdie sektore. Vryhandel en voorkeurtoegang het nie gelei tot die diversifikasie van Namibie se ekonomie nie en het dit op die keper beskou gelei tot kritiese terugslae op die kritiese beesvleisindustrie in die nabye verlede en het dit oor die langtermyn gelei tot die wegleiding van handel na Suid - Afrika en die Europese Unie. Beleggings en toename in uitvoer is te min om die vermindering van staatsinkomste deur middel van die liberalisering van handel teen te werk. Dit sal tot gevolg hê dat Namibia al meer gemarginaliseerd gaan raak indien dit nie die situasie kan teenwerk deur middel van beter handelsbeleid wat bepaal moet word deur onderhandeling met ander SADU lede nie. Hierdie beleidsrigtings sal lank neem voordat dit van krag sal kom aangesien nie een van die SADU instellings al in volle bedryf is nie.

<p>This study was on the anticipated impact of GATS on the financial services industry in Africa. The paper examined the possible positive and negative impact of the GATS agreement on the financial services industry in the African countries. The research focused on the banking sector and the insurance sector as the main financial sectors under investigation.</p>

This thesis studies the integration of South Africa into the global economy. It uses a structural dynamic factor model approach, instead of the well known structural vector autoregressive method, as it accommodates a large panel of time series variables characterized by a number of series significantly larger than the number of observations available. South African economic cycles show some comovement with cycles of its trading partners. But the synchronization with major trading partners has declined over time due to structural reforms initiated by the post-apartheid government. A new monetary regime, trade and financial openness, an increase in political stability together with reduced uncertainty have outweighed South African output comovement with the rest of the world. Shocks from advanced economies (the US and the EU) and East Asian countries, especially demand shocks, affect domestic variables significantly. The main channels are business and consumer confidence, trade variables, interest rates, and the exchange rate. Although South Africa comoves with Latin American countries, trade and financial linkages are still very weak. The level of development, perceptions of economic agents, and fluctuations of advanced economies (the US and the EU) are the main reasons contributing to the synchronization of their variables. South Africa’s position in Africa as economic leader starts to produce results leading to output synchronization with some of its partners’ from SADC. Similar to the Latin American scenario, the main reason is that the two sides share the EU as primary trading partner. Because of the vulnerability of the South African economy, policymakers must pay a particular attention and monitor closely developments in the global economy. In the same line, they should promote policies that enable the country to have access to international markets. Given the interdependence with the rest of the world, policymakers should monitor closely the performance of the global economy. Nevertheless, idiosyncratic features of the South African economy do play a role in the explaining fluctuations in economic activity. Hence, policies that lead to a structural transformation of the domestic economy are necessary. Reforms that allow labor market flexibility; promote competition; and support human capital formation through education, are imperative. / Doctor Francisco Nadal De Simone Professor Daniel Marais

D.Phil. (Economics) / This thesis presents a discussion of the economic integration between South Africa and the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, the so called BRICs. The thesis analyses four channels of interdependence: trade, investment, business cycle and the increasing importance of shocks originating from China. It makes significant and original contributions to the empirical literature by employing several econometric techniques. In the first two cases, a global vector autoregressive (global VAR) model is used to analyse the trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) linkages between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the period 1995-2009. The results show trade linkages between these economies whose magnitude differs between countries. Shocks from each BRIC country are shown to have considerable impact on South African real imports and output. However, there is no evidence of FDI linkages between these economies. This shows that the notable performance of the BRIC economies are not transmitted to the South African economy by FDI flows, but rather through the exchange rates for some countries and trade for the others. In the third application, the nature of co-movement between South Africa and the BRIC countries is examined by applying the dynamic factor model to a set of 307 macroeconomic series over the 1995-2009 period. Particularly, the extent of co-movement between the cyclical component of real output across South Africa and the BRICs is assessed. The results show significant degree of co-movement between South Africa and the BRICs over the business cycle and the long-run, although the magnitude of the co-movement differs with each country. In terms of the lead and lag relationships across South Africa and the BRIC countries, the study ends that only India leads South Africa over the cyclical period. The findings suggest that the first two factors are BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) factorswhile the third factor can be considered a United States factor. The last application investigates, using a factor model estimated with quarterly data from 1995 to 2009, how China’s shocks are transmitted to BRIS (Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa). The results show that China’s supply shocks are more important than its demand shocks. Supply shocks produce positive and significant output responses in all BRIS countries. However, their extent is significant only for short horizon in India. Positive demand shocks from China have positive and significant extent on Brazil’s and South Africa’s output only. The intensity of economic relationship and channels of transmission of shocks are different between China and BRIS. The results based on the variance share of the common component suggest that South Africa and Russia are linked intensively to China, while Brazil and India have only moderate linkages with China. International trade is an important channel for the transmission of shocks across China and BRIS countries indicating that supply and demand shocks in China do not have similar extent on the BRIS countries and therefore they require different policy responses.