Jetströmmar betyder mycket för meteorologer och fungerar som ett hjälpmedel för prognostisering av lågtryck. Kvadrantmodellen för jetströmsstråk beskriver hur det kan bildas lågtryck och konvergens vid marknivå på olika sidor om jetströmmen. Jetströmmar är också av betydelse för flygtrafiken, eftersom man kan spara tid och bränsle genom att flyga in i – eller genom att inte flyga in i – en jetström. Det är känt att jetströmmar ibland kan ge upphov till klarluftsturbulens (CAT), och studier har visat att turbulensen ofta är associerade med stabilt stratifierade zoner i närheten av jetströmmen. Denna studie börjar med en teoridel där jetströmmars uppkomst och kvadrantmodellen redogörs. Teoridelen fortsätter med en kort beskrivning av hur jetströmmar påverkar flygtrafiken och vad det finns för system som varnar för farliga fenomen som är kopplade till jetströmmarna. Det tas även upp att flygturbulensen som upplevs av flygplan inte nödvändigtvis orsakas av termisk eller mekanisk turbulens, utan även kan orsakas av stående vågor. I arbetets senare del görs en fallstudie på två jetströmmar som gav upphov till kraftig flygturbulens under januari månad 2011. Från sonderingsdata beräknades Scorer-parametern och Richardsons tal för att se om dessa värden kunde relateras till flygturbulensen. Resultatet visade att Richardsons tal aldrig föll under 0.25 och antyder därför att det inte fanns någon fullt utvecklad turbulens. Vågor i luften kan därför vara en förklaring till flygturbulensen. Resultatet visade också att Scorer-parametern antog lokala minima och hade tydligare relation till flygturbulensen än Richardsons tal vad gäller flygturbulensens position i höjdled. / Jet streams are useful as a tool for meteorologist to make forecasts of low pressure areas. The four quadrant model describing jet streaks reveals how lows and convergence could form over ground levels on different sides of a jet streak. Jet streams are also of great importance for the aviation industry, as one could save time and fuel by flying into – or by not flying into – a jet stream. It is known that the jet streams sometimes can induce Clear Air Turbulence (CAT), and studies have shown that the turbulence is often associated with stable stratified layers in the vicinity of the jet stream. This study starts with a theory section describing the cause of jet streams and the four quadrant model. The theory section continues with a description of why jet streams could be a hazard for airplanes, and also a description of existing reporting and warning systems that are used to prevent pilots from flying into dangerous phenomena. In this section, it is also emphasized that in-flight turbulence not necessarily is a result of thermal or mechanical turbulence, but could also be induced by standing waves in the atmosphere. The latter part of this report is a case study of two jet streaks that was the cause of severe in-flight turbulence in January 2011. The Scorer parameter and the Richardson number were computed using data from atmospheric soundings. The results show that the Richardson number never fell below 0.25, suggesting that there were no fully-developed turbulence. Waves in the air could therefore be an alternative explanation to the reported in-flight turbulence. The results also show that the Scorer parameter had local minima on the levels where the in-flight turbulence occurred. In contrast to this, the Richardson number had no apparent relation to the position of the reported turbulence.

Connection between upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex (UTCV) and jet stream in the Northeastern region of Brazil (JSNEB) were analyzed for 10 years (1998-2007). These studies are necessary for short term weather forecasting improvement in the Alagoas State of Brazil. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data were used for elaborate 200 hPa streamlines fields at 00:00 UTC. The 3.652 streamlines fields were analyzed. All events of UTCV with and without JSNEB were identified. During study period 214 UTCVs near NEB were observed and 147 of them above the Alagoas State. 63% UTCV events near Alagoas were associated with JSNEB. The durations of UTCVs and UTCV with JSNEB were on an average 3.8 and 3.0 days, respectively. The UTCVs were observed throughout the year, excluding July. UTCV with JSNEB were registered throughout the year except July and September and were stronger in the warm period (November - March). All JSNEB were weak, wind velocity at the nucleus center was at an average 32(verificar valor) ms-1 and value maximum reached 44m/s. The predominant velocity was 20-28ms-1 and was registered in 78% of events. The CJNEB direction from South, West, Nortwest and Southeast were observed more frequently. Three circulation pattern Zonal, Meridional and Transversal were obtained. For example, each circulation pattern was described in details. The precipitation in Alagoas State, associated with the Zonal, Meridional and Transversal events, were studied. / Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Alagoas / A ligação entre os Vórtices Ciclônicos em Altos Nivéis (VCAN) e a Corrente de Jato na região Nordeste do Brasil (CJNEB) foram analisados por 10 anos (1998-2007). Estes estudos são necessários para a melhoria da previsão meteorológica de curto prazo no Estado de Alagoas, Brasil. O Centro Nacional de Previsão Ambiental / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP / NCAR) , disponibiliza dados de reanálise para elaborar campos de linhas de corrente em conjunto com magnitude do vento em 200 hPa nos quatros horarios sinóticos (UTC). A analise foi feita em 3.652 campos que foram gerados respresentando os dias de cada ano. Todos os eventos de vórtices com e sem CJNEB foram identificados. Durante o período de estudo 214 VCAN próximo ao NEB foram observados e 147 deles acima do Estado de Alagoas. Em 63% dos eventos de VCAN próximo a Alagoas foram associados com CJNEB. As durações de VCAN e VCAN associado a CJNEB foram, em média, 3,8 e 3,0 dias, respectivamente. Os VCAN foram observados durante todo o ano, exceto em julho. O VCAN com CJNEB foram registrados durante todo o ano excluindo julho e setembro, e foram mais fortes do período mais quente (novembro-março). Todos CJNEB eram fracas, com velocidade do vento no centro do núcleo em média 32ms-1. E o valor máximo alcançou 44ms-1. A velocidade predominante foi entre 20 e 28ms-1 , e foi registrada em 78% dos eventos. A direção da CJNEB foram observados com maior frequência com sentidos de sul, oeste e sudeste. Três padrões de circulação zonal, meridional e transversal foram obtidos. Por exemplo, cada padrão de circulação foi descrito em detalhes. A precipitação no Estado de Alagoas, associada ao aos eventos de Padrão zonal, meridional e transversal, foram estudados.

This master’s thesis deals with jet streams. The exploration part describes conditions of jet stream formation, its characteristics, classification on the geographical basis and phenomena attendant on the jet streams. It also contains a description of jet stream measurement methods and methods of its interpretation in aeronautical meteorological charts. Organization of aeronautical traffic in the north Atlantic region within reach of the jet streams is further described. Practical part of this thesis contains author’s own research which compares time and economical profitability of transatlantic flights planned according to the jet streams. The principle of this evaluation was based on assessment of real flights and flights via shortest possible routes. It was proven, that profits mentioned above are gained only in the oceanic parts of flights.

This thesis is about wind shear and its influence on aviation. There is wide theoretical description of wind shear and itâs implemented into aviation practice. There are also methods of observation, forecasting and reporting, for both pilots and meteorologist described. In this thesis, pilots can find useful recommendations for dealing with wind shear during the flight. Every reader can also read about famous aviation accidents and look at models of weather that caused those accidents. At the end of thesis there are analyses of a rawiosonde measurements related to wind shear reports. This whole thesis is focused on increasing awareness of wind shear in aviation from angle of view of both pilots and aviation meteorologist.

L'étude de la variabilité des cyclones extra-tropicaux (ETC) est non seulement un sujet d'intérêt pour la communauté scientifique mais aussi d'une grande importance en raison de ses impacts socio-économiques. Toutefois, l'étude continué de la variabilité des ETC et de leurs impacts est encore rare, en particulier a l'échelle de temps du Xeme siècle. Cette thèse vise a étudier la variabilité des trajectoires de tempêtes et de leurs dégâts associés du début du Xxeme siècle a 2010. Pour ce faire, le travail est divisé en deux sections principales, l'une dédiée a la climatologie des ETCs au cours du siècle dernier a partir de données de réanalyse, et la seconde centrée sur le calcul d'indices de pertes et l'évaluation des risques induits par les tempêtes. On s'intéresse en premier lieu a l'étude de la variabilité des ETCs par l'application d'un algorithme de suivi de cyclone, sur la réanalyse de long terme du Centre Européen (ECMWF) ERA-20C. Le nombre annuel d'ETC modérées a intenses fait ressortir trois périodes historiques distinctes. Deux périodes, l'une au début et la seconde à la fin du Xeme siècle (1900-1935 et 1980-2010) ne présentent aucune tendance tandis qu'au milieu du siècle (1930-1980) une tendance significative à l'augmentation apparait. Cette dernière peut toutefois être interrogée en raison de l'inhomogénéité temporelle des réanalyses de long terme. Pour cette raison, un ensemble de paramètres physiques sont analysés en vue d'interpréter physiquement les trois périodes. Durant la période 1930-1980, un refroidissement général de l'atmosphère est observé, en particulier aux hautes latitudes, qui augmente le gradient méridien de température et en conséquence la baroclinicité et la conversion barocline. Par ailleurs, cette augmentation de la fréquence d'ETC est observée spécifiquement sur le Pacifique (Atlantique) au cours de la première (seconde) moitié de la période en lien avec une inversion de l'indice Oscillation Décennale du Pacifique (Oscillation Multidecennale Atlantique). La seconde partie de la thèse s'intéresse à l'analyse des tempête scausant les plus forts dégâts du Xeme siècle. Tout d'abord, on calcule un champ d'indices de dégâts de vents forts pour plus de vingt pays. On développe ensuite une Méthode de Suivi de Tempêtes de Forts Dégâts et les résultats de l'algorithme de suivi sont combinés avec les indices de dégâts de vents forts pour chaque pays. [...] / Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) variability is not only a subject that raises interest among the scientific community, but also extremely important in terms of social-economical impacts. Nevertheless, the study of both the extratropical cyclones variability and windstorms impacts is still scarce, particularly at time-scales that cover the twentieth century. This thesis aims to study, both storms track variability and associated losses from the beginning of the 20th century until 2010. In order to do so, the work was separated in two main parts, one witch focus on ETCs climatology during the last century using reanalysis data and another focused on loss indexes calculations and risk assessment of windstorms. The first part of this PhD concerns the study of ETCs variability after applying a tracking algorithm on the long-term ECMWF reanalysis ERA-20C. The number of ETCs per year shows three distinct periods for the moderate and deep cyclones. Two periods, one at the beginning and another at end of the century (1900-1935 and 1980-2010) for which no significant e trends are observed and a middle-century period between 1935-1980 which presents a significant positive trend. This last trend, however, a deeper analysis on this period should be done due to time-inhomogeneity of long-term reanalysis datasets. For this reason, a set of physical parameters are analysed and a physical interpretation made for each one of the periods. During the middle period, a general cooling of the atmosphere is observed, particularly at high-latitudes, which increases the meridional gradients of temperature and consequently baroclinicity and baroclinic conversion. Besides that, this increase is also observed more specifically in the Pacific (Atlantic) in the first (second) half of this period and linked with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) change in signs. On the opposite, the first and third periods are related with warmer polar temperatures that are more intense in the third period but never reach the upper levels of the troposphere. This creates differential changes in baroclinicity. On the one hand, baroclinicity decreases at lower levels and, on the other hand increases at upper levels. The second part of this thesis is focused on the analysis of the most damaging windstorms of the century. First, Loss and Meteorological indexes Pinto et al 2012 are computed for more than twenty countries. Then, a High-Loss Tracking Method is developed and the tracking algorithm trajectories are matched with the LI and MI information for each country. [...]

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / O objetivo principal deste trabalho baseou-se na elaboração e estudo das freqüências de distribuições espaciais das Correntes de Jato próximo do Nordeste Brasileiro (CJNEB) e sistemas sinóticos associados. Esta pesquisa foi realizada devido à necessidade de um maior conhecimento sobre a influência desse sistema na região e a pouca quantidade de artigos relacionados a este tipo de pesquisa. O período escolhido contou com 16 anos de análises entre os anos de 1994 e 2009. Foram utilizados os dados de reanálise do National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) no nível de 200 hPa e imagens de satélite no canal infravermelho do banco de dados do Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC) da University of Wisconsin. A partir daí foram encontrados 1.100 casos desta corrente, representando um total de 19% dos dias analisados e 4.740 (81%) casos de ventos com velocidades entre 20 e 30 m/s. Apesar de serem registrados ventos acima de 30 m/s em todas as estações do ano, os meses que contaram com as maiores freqüências e ocorrências deste vento foram os de outono e inverno. O vento máximo registrado para esta corrente de ar em nível superior ocorreu no mês de inverno, alcançando 64 m/s (230 km/h). Em todo período foram notadas variações anuais com ciclos de 4 ou 5 anos de maiores ou menores ocorrências. Os sistemas associados à CJNEB foram os vórtices ciclônicos de altos níveis (VCAN s), cavados (CAV), alta da Bolívia (AB), ciclones do hemisfério norte (CHN) e anticiclones no atlântico sul (AAS) próximo ao equador. As distribuições espaciais encontradas das CJNEB foram referentes às direções de NW-SE, SW-NE, SE-NW, W-E, S-N e N-S. As direções de NW-SE e SW-NE foram os casos mais observadas durante todo o estudo. Foram elaborados modelos conceituais dos três tipos de CJNEB associados com seguintes sistemas sinóticos: I) AB junto com VCAN do tipo clássico perto do NEB no Atlântico e ou cavado; II) Anticiclone do Atlântico junto com VCAN no NEB tipo clássico e ou cavado; III) cavado perto do NEB junto com ciclone do hemisfério norte. Estes tipos de CJNEB tinham seguintes direções: tipo 1 de sul, sudeste e sudoeste; tipo 2 de norte e noroeste; e tipo 3 de leste e sudoeste.

Dynamic Systems Theory (DST) and spectral analysis are employed to study the tropospheric jet stream and the stratospheric polar vortex. The objective is to investigate the relationship between Rossby wave activity and inverse persistence and dimensionality of geopotential height at 250 hPa and 10 hPa, as these two dynamical indicators are expected to show a characteristic behavior of Rossby wave harmonics. The results show that persistent states exhibit suppressed Rossby wave activity for eastward-propagating Rossby waves, whereas it is increased for the westward counterpart. Positive anomalies of spectral power at positive phase speeds are present for less persistent states. Events with low dimensionality relate to the suppression of most Rossby waves, while an increase in spectral power is present during high dimensional states. The results were more pronounced in the stratosphere compared to the troposphere with different spatial patterns of geopotential height anomalies due to additional factors influencing the location of Rossby waves. Furthermore, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are connected to a decrease in persistence up to 2 weeks prior, followed by a significant increase in persistence and dimensionality, and reduced integrated spectral power. Strong Polar Vortex events (SPVs) exhibit the opposite behavior with an increase in persistence before and a decrease in persistence and dimensionality, and higher ISP afterward. Additionally, SSWs (SPVs) exhibit a suppression (enhancement) of Rossby wave activity in the stratosphere and to a lesser extent in the troposphere for eastwards traveling waves.

Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul / It was identified Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange (STE) events on Southern South America and their effects in the Ozone Total Column (OTC) above Central Region of Rio Grande do Sul (CRRS), Brazil, in the period between 2005 and 2014. To this end, it was developed a methodology able to verify the tropopause height and the descend mass flux in this region, using reanalysis 2 data provided by NCEP/DOE. Furthermore, these cases must have wind cores above 40m/s (Upper-level Jet Stream - ULJS) acting between 30 and 80°W and 20 and 50°S. The arrival confirmation of air parcels from the STE at the CRRS was made through HYSPLIT trajectory analysis model from NOAA. For cases that acted at the CRRS, it was computed the OTC variation in relation to five days prior to the STE effects, through daily OTC data obtained from the OMI instrument for Santa Maria city (29.72°S; 53.72°W). This methodology proved to be effective in identifying 755 STE events on Southern South America, from which 103 came to act on CRRS, with 65% of cases increasing and 35% reducing the OTC in this region. Seasonal analysis showed that most cases happens in winter, followed by spring and in less quantity in summer and fall. Averaged fields of the vertical wind profile, mass flux, temperature and potential vorticity, showed that STE events occur more often in post-frontal situations at the Bacia do Prata region. Moreover, it was analyzed the convergence role in relation to jet streak s vertical transversal circulations, demonstrating that, in STE cases, these circulations increase even more the stratospheric air intake into the troposphere by strong convergence in the ULJS level. In short, it was verified that STE events on Southern South America act as a stratospheric ozone-rich air source to the CRRS, having as an allied the ULJS, which increase the phenomena. / Foram identificados eventos de Troca Estratosfera-Troposfera (TET) sobre o Sul da América do Sul e seus efeitos na variação da Coluna Total de Ozônio (CTO) Região Central do Rio Grande do Sul (RCRS), Brasil, no período entre 2005 e 2014. Para este fim, desenvolveu-se uma metodologia capaz de verificar a altura da tropopausa e o fluxo de massa descendente nesta região, utilizando dados de reanálise 2 fornecidos pelo NCEP/DOE. Além disso, os casos deveriam possuir núcleos de vento acima de 40 m/s (Corrente de Jato em Altos Níveis - CJAN) atuando entre 30 e 80°O e 20 e 50°S. A confirmação da chegada das parcelas de ar provenientes da TET na RCRS deu-se através da análise das trajetórias do modelo Hysplit da NOAA. Para os casos que atuaram na RCRS, calculou-se a variação da CTO em relação aos cinco dias anteriores aos efeitos da TET, através de dados diários da CTO obtidos do instrumento OMI para a cidade de Santa Maria (29.72°S; 53.72°O). Esta metodologia mostrou-se eficaz na identificação de 755 eventos de TET sobre o Sul da América do Sul, dos quais 103 vieram a atuar na RCRS, com 65% dos casos aumentando e com 35% reduzindo a CTO nesta região. A análise sazonal mostrou que a maioria dos casos acontece no inverno, seguido da primavera e em menor quantidade no verão e outono. Campos médios do perfil vertical de vento, fluxo de massa, temperatura e vorticidade potencial, mostraram que os eventos de TET ocorrem com mais frequência em uma situação pós-frontal na região da Bacia do Prata. Além disso, analisou-se o papel da convergência relacionada às circulações verticais transversais do núcleo da CJAN, mostrando que, em casos de TET, estas circulações intensificam ainda mais a entrada de ar estratosférico para dentro da troposfera por intermédio da forte convergência no nível da CJAN. Em suma, verificou-se que os eventos de TET sobre o Sul da América do Sul atuam como uma fonte de ar estratosférico rico em Ozônio para a RCRS, tendo como um de seus aliados a CJAN, a qual intensifica o fenômeno.

This master's thesis deals with the issue of volcanic ash as a complex and its impact on aviation, including the volcanic activity itself (conditions for its existence, for existence of eruptions and their basic products). In addition, the thesis also deals with effect of volcanic ash on aircraft and airports, possibilities of its detection or monitoring as well as mechanism of its spreading in airspace. The emphasis is laid mainly on air incidents related to volcanic ash and on danger it poses to the airspace of the Czech Republic.