Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / Ever since listed companies have been allowed to buy back shares (since the Companies Amendment Act was introduced in 1999), a major question has been whether companies with extra cash should pay out dividends or buy back shares. The larger research project for the University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB) will evaluate this question by comparing the rand value of dividends paid to shareholders to the rand value of share buybacks and comparing the rand value of special dividends to the rand value of share buybacks. The research described in this report was conducted as part of the bigger research project on dividends and aimed to produce a provisional list of special dividends paid from 1999 to 2011 for all companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The list comprises only special dividends paid from earnings, hence the term „provisional list‟. The bigger research project to produce a comprehensive list of special dividends will include the following additional steps: 1. Determining payments from earnings and share premium. 2. Determining payments from earnings, share premium and special designated dividends (SDD). 3. Determining payments from earnings, share premium, SDD and statistically evaluated dividends. The present research showed that using databases alone would not yield viable data for research purposes. The researcher started to gather data from two databases and afterwards had to evaluate the Stock Exchange News Service (SENS) announcements to eliminate the discrepancies. Furthermore, the physical financial statements gave valuable information to produce the provisional list. The correct method to determine the true rand amounts for dividends is firstly to consult the annual financial reports and secondly to retrieve the SENS announcements. Then the entry can be verified by multiplying the dividend per share by the number of shares on the record date. This rand value can be found in the financial statements in the statement of changes in equity. The dividends paid out of share premium are easy to identify, as the entry will be specifically stated in the statement of changes in equity. The determination of special dividends is rather difficult, because the rand amount of special dividends are hardly ever published as such in the statement of changes in equity. The conclusion reached by the researcher is that the only method to obtain the correct entries for any financial evaluation is to consult the audited financial statements. Databases can be useful in obtaining some information; however, the only reliable resource to retrieve the final information is from financial statements.

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investment. June 2017 / This research report explores how various macroeconomic surprises impact on individual stock returns in South Africa. The focus of the study is on the individual constituent stocks of the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index listed during the period January 2005 to December 2015. This report employs an event study and Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) analysis approach to provide comprehensive insights into the relationship between the macroeconomic surprises and the individual stock returns in South Africa. This study closely mirrors a previous study conducted by Gupta and Reid (2013) which explored the impact of five macroeconomic surprises on general stock market indices (ALSI and JSE Top 40) and industry-specific stock returns in South Africa. However, in the interests of completeness and robustness, there are a few material differences and additional innovations introduced in this report. The event study results show that individual stock returns in South Africa are highly sensitive to GDP growth and CA surprises. Upon immediate impact, the GDP growth shocks cause negative stock returns indicating that initially market participants have a general dislike for the surprise element in GDP growth surprise announcements. However, post immediate impact, the stock returns increase and remain positive in line with widely hypothesized economic theory. In addition to GDP growth and CA surprises, the BVAR analysis indicates that USFed shocks have significant dynamic effects on individual stock returns in South Africa. The study finds that individual banking stocks and resource stocks are significantly sensitive to REPO surprises, whilst individual retail, property and consumer goods stocks are very responsive to GDP growth shocks. / MT2017

The listing of firms on stock exchanges does not only provide these firms with the opportunity to raise long-term equity capital, it also allows for investors to participate in the primary and secondary equity markets. Traditionally executed through Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), listings were previously reserved for large firms due to the requirements and costs involved. In response, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) introduced the JSE Alternative Exchange (AltX) in 2003 as a parallel exchange market in order to also provide South African small and medium sized entities with an opportunity to access equity capital. This also allowed for investors to invest in small high-growth companies with the expectation of higher returns. The aim of this research was to analyse the IPO performances of JSE AltX listings in order to establish the returns achieved by the initial IPO and the subsequent aftermarket participants. This research analysed the initial IPO returns attributable to the initial investors and the 1, 2 and 3 year aftermarket returns attributable to the aftermarket participants. Although various studies have been concluded on the investor returns for IPOs listing on the JSE, this report focused specifically on the AltX which has not been as extensively studied. IPOs listing on the JSE AltX from April 2006 to December 2011 were analysed. It was found that during this period, the average initial market-adjusted return offered to the initial invertors was 21 per cent after the first day of trade. The average 1, 2 and 3 year aftermarket market-adjusted returns were -0.08, -0.33 and 3.36 per cent respectively. An analysis of the combined aftermarket market-adjusted returns for the same 1, 2 and 3 year post IPO periods yielded returns of 25.17, 20.03 and 25.67 per cent respectively. From the conducted study, the results indicate that there is existence of average positive abnormal initial returns on the JSE AtlX, and returns underperformance for the two years following that. The aftermarket returns are then positive 3 years post IPO date. Combined returns were found to be abnormal and positive throughout the 1,2 and 3 year periods post IPO.

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science. Johannesburg 2014. / The application of agent based modelling in nance allows market experiments to be undertaken which would normally be prohibitive due to cost, complexity and other factors. Agent based models use simple behaviour and interaction to produce complex outcomes. We introduce the requirements of an agent based market simulator based on protocol stipulated by the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The requirements are then translated into a technical design. This design is implemented using the Microsoft .NET framework. The product of this design and creation approach is a market simulator which is then used to run three simulations where different agent behaviour is demonstrated. The approach and results of the simulations are documented to show possible use cases of the simulator.

A research report submitted to the School of Economic and Business Sciences, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment (50%) of the requirements for degree of Master of Commerce in Finance. Date of submission: April 2016 / International studies have widely documented the long-run underperformance of firms conducting secondary equity offerings (SEOs), a phenomenon commonly referred to as the ‘new issues puzzle’. Understanding the market’s reaction to SEOs is vital for managers who are commonly tasked with deciding on how to finance their firm’s operations. This study investigates the short-run and long-run performance of firms conducting SEOs on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) over the period of 1998 to 2015, by exploring both rational and behavioural models in predicting SEO behaviour. Event-study analysis reveals that the market generally reacts negatively to the announcement of SEOs with a statistically significant average two-day cumulative abnormal return of -2.6%. Using a buy-and-hold abnormal return approach, as well as factor regression analysis to study the long-run share performance of issuing firms, there is no evidence that issuing firms significantly underperform relative to non-issuing firms over a five-year period when testing for abnormal share return performance with the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Furthermore, issuing firms exhibit no consistent signs of operating underperformance in comparison to non-issuing firms over a fiveyear period. Finally, in evidence contradicting the market timing theory, investor sentiment appears to bear no consistently significant influence on either a firm’s decision to issue equity, or on the short-run and long-run performance of SEOs. Overall, the results imply that the longrun performance of SEOs conducted in South Africa is best described by rational explanations centred on the risk-return framework. There is no consistent evidence of any ‘new issues puzzle’ on the JSE. / MT2017

The global move towards sustainability and sustainability reporting, the rise and influence of the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) and triple bottom line reporting, together with the launch of the King III Report, and revision of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listing requirements in South Africa, both requiring the preparation of an integrated report, have resulted in a uniquely altered information environment, in which investors are required to make investment decisions. The value-relevance of this new sustainability information is however to date untested in a South African context. The introduction of the Social Responsible Investment (SRI) Index in South Africa provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the value-relevance of such new reporting. This research report tests the GRI, using the SRI Index as a proxy, to determine whether this accepted reporting standard is recognized as being valuerelevant, from both a short term and long term perspective, on the JSE over the period 2004 to 2012. The short term value-relevance is tested using cumulative average abnormal returns in an event study methodology, while the long term effect was investigated using a 4-tiered portfolio construction technique, which uses the SRI Index category rankings to define the portfolios. The results indicate that true to the long term nature of sustainability information, in the short term the quality of sustainability and sustainability reporting has no effect on the market value of a company. However, in the long term, a positive effect was found where the SRI listed portfolio, and the SRI best performer portfolio, significantly outperformed the non-listed portfolio on a consistent basis as measured using relative performance. The SRI persistent best performer portfolio however underperformed all other portfolios. This is however due to an overwhelming lack of diversification due to a low number of shares in the portfolio, as well as the portfolio being severely overweight in resource shares, which tend to be the best reporters, due to their large environmental impact. The research report therefore concludes that investing in a higher quality SRI/GRI sustainability portfolio, as opposed to a lower quality portfolio, resulted in excess returns to the investors over the period 2004-2012.

Thesis (M.Com. (Finance))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic and Business Sciences, 2016. / Could not copy abstract

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investment. Johannesburg, 2016 / The prediction of stock price and index level in a financial market is an interesting but highly complex and intricate topic. Advancements in prediction models leading to even a slight increase in performance can be very profitable. The number of studies investigating models in predicting actual levels of stocks and indices however, far exceed those predicting the direction of stocks and indices. This study evaluates the performance of ensemble prediction models in predicting the daily direction of the JSE All-Share index. The ensemble prediction models are benchmarked against three common prediction models in the domain of financial data prediction namely, support vector machines, logistic regression and k-nearest neighbour. The results indicate that the Boosted algorithm of the ensemble prediction model is able to predict the index direction the best, followed by k-nearest neighbour, logistic regression and support vector machines respectively. The study suggests that ensemble models be considered in all stock price and index prediction applications. / MT2017

This study has been prompted by the recent introduction of the JSE Alternative Exchange in South Africa, an alternative listing platform for smaller companies compared to the more established JSE Main Board Exchange. This new era has led to information asymmetry among current and prospective investors regarding the risk-return profile of the companies listed on the relatively new JSE Alternative Exchange and how this profile relates to the profile of firms listed on the long established JSE Main Board Exchange. In an attempt to fill the above information gap, this study sheds light on the short, medium and long-term performances of initial public offerings of companies listed on the JSE Alternative Exchange vis-a-vis that of JSE Main Board Exchange. This information is relevant for investment and financing decision making, principally for investors, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs. The findings of this research appear to be contrary to expectations and to corporate finance theory. The results indicate that on average, initial public offerings by larger JSE Main Board companies outperform the smaller JSE Alternative Exchange companies on a nominal and risk-adjusted bases in the short-medium and long-term. It must be noted however that the differences in performance are not statistically significant. On the other hand, in line with documented evidence in the literature, it was found that the risk of returns on the smaller capitalisation JSE Alternative Exchange companies was indeed higher than that of the JSE Main Board companies. A similarity identified between the average performances of the two listing platforms is that, the returns for companies decreased overtime between the short and long-term. This may be partly due to the impact of the 2007 economic recession.

Van Rensburg and Robertson (2003a) stated that the CAPM beta has little or no relationship with returns generated by size and price to earnings sorted portfolios. This study intends to demonstrate that a reformulated CAPM beta, estimated using return on equity as opposed to share returns, unravels the size and value premium. The study proves that the “cash-flow” generated beta partially explains the cross-sectional variation in share returns when measured over the long run, specifically when portfolios are sorted on book to market, however the cash flow beta is less successful when attempting to explain the small size premium. The premise of the study is that the cash flow dynamics of share returns eventually dominate the first and second moments and thus result in cash flow based measures of risk and return that should succeed in explaining the cross-sectional variation in share returns. The study makes use of vector autoregressive models in order to examine the short term effect of structural shocks to the cash flow fundamentals of a stock or portfolio through impulse response functions as well as quantifying a long-term relationship between cash flow fundamentals and share returns using a VECM specification. The study further uses fixed effects, random effects and GMM/dynamic panel data cross-sectional regressions in order to examine the ability of the cash flow beta explaining the value and size premium. The results of the study are mixed. The cash flow beta does well in explaining the returns of portfolios sorted on book to market, but fails to do the same with size sorted portfolios. In the cash flow betas favour, it performs far better than the conventionally measured CAPM beta throughout the study.