The exchange rates of currencies of different countries show higher volatility than it could be explained by the volatility of the fundamental variables. There are introduced different models which try to describe the behavior of these exchange rates in this Diploma Thesis. Their comparison is made with respect to the ability to capture the volatility of the empirically observed data. The behavior of exchange rates may also be influenced by interventions of the state institutions and therefore we introduced models which allow the effect of such regulatory interventions. These models were applied on real data. The properties of the model predictions of exchange rates were compared and evaluated with respect to their ability to explain the volatility of the empirical data. At the summary of my work one of the models has been used to simulate the behavior of the exchange rate during the application of different intervention strategies of the Central Bank. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

In this thesis we provide an updated empirical evidence on the linkage between an exchange rate and foreign direct investments (FDI). On the sample of 40 developing countries receiving FDI flows from five developed OECD econo- mies, we analyse how the strength of exchange rates, exchange rate volatility and currency regime affect FDI. Applying the Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable approach over the analysed period from 1991 to 2010, we have not found unanimous support on the role of exchange rates in influencing FDI. In the thesis, we document that over the last two decades, bilateral exchange rate volatility decreased and this can be assigned to its less-likely influence on FDI. In addition, based on the results of the analysis, we cannot confirm the wealth effect hypothesis that supposes an increase of FDI after real depreciation of developing country's currency. We ascribe this outcome to the development of average real exchange rates of developing countries that exhibited considerable strenghtening during the analysed period. We also find that de facto bilateral fixing of the currencies might be beneficial for FDI flows. The reasoning might lie in the reduction of transaction costs that is linked to credible exchange rates.

The aim of this thesis is to analyze the performance of nonlinear threshold models in forecasting the exchange rate of Czech koruna against EUR. Data for this study were obtained from Statistical Data Warehouse of European Central Bank (ECB) website, from Czech National Bank (CNB) Board decisions minutes and from the press releases of Governing Council of ECB. The data set was split into two periods - from 1999 until November, 2013 when CNB started to use interventions and from November, 2013 until April, 2016. Models used in the thesis are Self-Exciting Threshold Auto Regressive (SETAR) models with one and two thresholds and two Threshold Auto Regres- sive (TAR) models with different threshold variables - meetings of CNB Board as dummy variable and average volatility over recent periods. The forecasting results indicate that SETAR models did not outperform Random Walk in any period. TAR models offered promising results in the period before interventions and surprisingly failed in the period during interventions. This study supports the general belief of exchange rates being difficult to forecast and that it holds in case of Czech koruna as well. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23 H25, H71, H87 Keywords forecasting, exchange rate, time series, nonlin- earity, SETAR, TAR Author's e-mail zaka.one@gmail.com...

The aim of this thesis is to find a reason why the US current account is in deficit, which is in contradiction of theoretical expectation. Prevailing discusion is about savings glut and defects in monetary policy. In our opinion both sides ignore China`s rising influence and real exchange rate. Balassa-Samuelson`s effect predict real exchange rate appreciation in converging economies, as long as their real GDP grows. Analysis of real exchange rate of Renminbi shows contradiction with Balassa-Samuelson effect, which is attributed to conditions on Chinese labour market. Chinese internal imbalance has impacts on global economy and nonappreciating real exchange rate of Renminbi deforming international trade is one of the factors that causes US current account deficit.

The aim of this Master Thesis is to summarize the modern theoretical models of fundamental determination of exchange rates. The Thesis contains of Introduction, four explanatory chapters and the conclusion. The first chapter provides the definition of traditional premises (PPP, IRP, expectations) and in the end of the chapter the 5-equation model is introduced. The second chapter focuses the attention on both equilibrium (Bilson-Frenkel) and non equilibrium (Dornbusch, Frankel) monetary models. In the end of the chapter there are also briefly mentioned Hooper-Morton's and Girton-Ropers models. The third chapter brings in the risk and it is focused on portfolio models. The last chapter describes the Lyons-Evans model of market microstructure based on order flow.

The aim of this thesis is to examine the dependence of the exchange rate movement on the core fundamentals of the economy in the long term, as well as to test the validity of selected indicators of technical analysis in the short term. The dependence of the exchange rate will be examined using correlation and the discussed fundamentals are the main macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, short-term interest rates and money base M2. In the part, which deals with the technical analysis, I will test the two groups of indicators, namely trend indicators and oscillators. From the first group it will be simple moving average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the weighted moving average (WMA), the triangular moving average (TMA) and MACD. From the group of oscillators I will test the relative strength index (RSI). All these indicators will be first described in the theoretical part of this thesis. The thesis is divided into two parts - theoretical and practical. The theoretical part includes two chapters which deals with the analysis of the Forex market. The first chapter deals with fundamental analysis. The second chapter deals with technical analysis. In the third chapter I will discuss both methods in practice, with emphasis on technical analysis.

The aim of this thesis is empirical verification of the fundamental theory of exchange rate determination in the case of the currency pair EUR/USD. The theoretical part is devoted to the issue of exchange rate theory, with emphasis on the importance of the currency pair EUR/USD, and major characteristics of the fundamental theory of exchange rate determination. Attention is also paid to methods of analysis of time series, which will be used in the analytical part. The analytical part is devoted to an empirical verification of the underlying theories. On the basis of these theories are developed econometric models, which are then tested using the methods of linear regression and cointegration. The results of the models and their relevance are discussed in conclusion.

Diploma thesis tackels the question of evangelisation, specifically then the question of modern ways of evangelisation in present world. In the first part the work concentrates on definition of key terms. Then the work specifies how different religious documents see evangelisation. In this part the work explains the tasks of evangelisation. In the next part the work covers the origins of secularisation of the society in the Czech lands and its influence on the spiritual life of people. The work then describes some of the modern evangelisation methods with the emphasis on Alpha course. In the last part the work covers some of the calls of pope František and how those calls are reflected in the Alpha course. The aim of this work is to look at the Alpha course as a suitable tool of evangelisation in terms of the present Czech society.

Diplomová práce se zabývá problematikou přistoupení České republiky k EMU. Na začátku práce je krátce popsán vznik EMU. Jádrem práce je připravenost ekonomiky na přijetí společné měny, stupeň dosažené hospodářské konvergence k Evropské unii a porovnání s ostatními státy střední a východní Evropy. Na konci práce je naznačen vývoj konvergence Slovinska a Slovenska.

Práce se pokouší zjistit případný vliv reálného efektivního kurzu koruny na český zahraniční obchod, resp. na vývoz a dovoz zboží a čistého exportu. Úvodní kapitola, je věnována teoretické části se zaměřením na vymezení důležitých pojmů, jako platební bilance, nominální a reálný měnový kurz, Marshall-Lernerova a zahraniční obchod. Druhá kapitola obsahuje datovou a analytickou část. V ní jsou analyzována výchozí makroekonomická data ? vývoj reálného efektivního kurzu koruny a vývoj zahraničního obchodu ČR od roku 1996 do roku 2006. Závěrečná kapitola se věnuje popisu vlivu změn reálného efektivního kurzu koruny na automobilový průmysl. Pomocí grafické analýzy se zde objasňuje případná závislost vývoje reálného efektivního kurzu a vývozu osobních automobilů z ČR do zahraničí. V závěru jsou shrnuty celkové výsledky práce.