El presente trabajo busca cuantificar la importancia socioeconómica de siete rasgos fonéticos (seseo, yeísmo, aspiración de /s/, aspiración de /x/, asibilación de /ʝ/, asibilación de /r/ y velarización de /n/), cuya presencia o ausencia sirve para caracterizar veinticuatro dialectos del idioma español. Para ello se efectúa un análisis de regresión por mínimos cuadrados que sirve para calcular “precios hedónicos” asociados con tales rasgos fonéticos. El resultado es +que las tres características más significativas que parecen operar como signos de un ingreso per cápita más bajo son el seseo, la aspiración de /x/ y la asibilación de /r/. El primero de tales rasgos parece ser también significativo como marcador sociolingüístico cuando limitamos nuestro análisis al caso de España, en tanto que la asibilación de /r/ mantiene su significación cuando restringimos nuestras observaciones al caso de Colombia. / This paper tries to quantify the socioeconomic importance of seven phonetic characteristics (seseo, yeismo, /s/-aspiration, /x/-aspiration, /ʝ/-assibilation, /r/-assibilation, and /n/-velarization) whose presence or absence allows distinguishing among twenty-four Spanish dialects. In order to accomplish this goal, we perform a least-square regression analysis to calculate “hedonic prices” for the abovementioned characteristics. The result is that the three more significant characteristics, which seem to operate as signs of a lower per-capita income, are seseo, /x/-aspiration and /r/-assibilation. The first of those characteristics keeps its statistical significance as a sociolinguistic marker when we restrict our analysis to the case of Spain, while /r/-assibilation keeps its statistical significance when we restrict our database to Colombian observations.

Summary Fresh water availability and distribution have been declining over time due to population increase, climate change and variability, emerging new demands due to economic growth, and changing consumption patterns. Spatial and temporal changes in environmental changes, such as climate and land use/cover (LULC) dynamics have an enormous impact on water availability. Food and energy security, urbanization and industrial growth, as well as climate change (CC) will pose critical challenges on water resources. Climate variability and change may affect both the supply and demand sides of the balance, and thus add to the challenges. Land-cover changes are vastly prominent in the developing countries that are characterized by agriculture-based economies and rapidly increasing human population. The consequent changes in water availability and increase in per capita water demand will adversely affect the food, water and energy security of those countries. Therefore, evaluating the response of the catchment to environmental changes is crucial in the critical part of the basin for sustainable water resource management and development. In particular, assessing the contribution of individual LULC classes to changes in water balance components is vital for effective water and land resource management, and for mitigation of climate change impacts. The dynamic water balance of a catchment is analyzed by hydrological models that consider spatio-temporal catchment characteristics. As a result, hydrological models have become indispensable tools for the study of hydrological processes and the impacts of environmental stressors on the hydrologic system. Physically-based distributed hydrological models are able to explicitly account for the spatial variability of hydrological process, catchment characteristics such as climatic parameters, and land use/cover changes. For improved illustration of physical processes in space and time, the distributed hydrological models need serially complete and homogenized rainfall and temperature data. However, observed rainfall and temperature data are neither serially complete nor homogeneous, particularly in developing countries. Using inhomogeneous climatological data inputs to hydrological models affects the output magnitude of climate and land use/cover change impacts and, hence, climate change adaptation. The Nile River Basin, one of the transboundary river flows through 11 riparian states, serves the livelihoods of millions of people in the basin (nearly 20 per cent of the African population) and covers one-tenth of the land cover of Africa. The basin is characterized by high population growth and high temporal variability in the river flow and rainfall patterns. The Blue Nile river basin, which contributes 62% of the annual main Nile flow, has faced serious land degradation. This has led to increased soil erosion and loss of soil fertility. The most overwhelming challenge that the basin faces is food insecurity caused by subsistence farming and rain-fed agriculture (over 70% of the basin’s population), together with high rainfall variability. Drought and floods are also critical issues in the Blue Nile basin, with the potential for exacerbation by environmental changes. Understanding how LULC and climate changes influence basin hydrology will therefore enable decision makers to introduce policies aimed at reducing the detrimental effects of future environmental changes on water resources. Understanding types and impacts of major environmental stressors in representative and critical regions of the basin is crucial for developing of effective response strategies for sustainable land- and water-resource management in the Eastern Nile Basin in general, and at the Tana and Beles watersheds in particular. In this study, serially completed and homogenized rainfall and temperature dataset are maintained from 1980 to 2013 to fill-in the gap which characterized previous studies on trend analyses. The new hydroclimatic data revealed that the climate the study region has become wetter and warmer. The proportional contribution of main rainy season rainfall to annual total rainfall has increased. This might result in high runoff and ultimately flooding as well as erosion and sedimentation in the source region of the Blue Nile, and siltation in the downstream reservoirs unless soil and water conservation measures are taking place. In the Tana sub-basin, it is found that expansion of cultivation land and decline in woody shrub are the major contributors to the rise in surface run-off and to the decline in the groundwater component from 1986 to 2010. Similarly, decline of woodland and expansion of cultivation land are found to be the major contributors to the increase in surface run-off and water yield. They also contributed to the decrease in groundwater and actual evapotranspiration components in the Beles watershed. Increased run-off and reduced baseflow and actual evapotranspiration would have negative impacts on water resources, especially in relation to erosion and sedimentation in the upper Blue Nile River Basin. As a result, expansion of cultivation land and decline in woody shrub/woodland appear to be major environmental stressors affecting local water resources. GCMs simulated near-future annual total rainfall and average temperature were used to investigate the sensitivity of the catchment to near-future CC. The results showed an increase in streamflow in the annual and the main rainy season, but decrease in the dry period when compared to the baseline period. Catchment response for future LULC scenario showed opposite effect to that of near-future CC. The combined effects of climate change and LULC dynamics can be quite different from the effects resulting from LULC or CC alone. At the outlet of the Tana watershed, streamflow response is amplified under concurrent land cover and climate change scenarios compared to the baseline scenario; but the streamflow has an augmenting response at the outlet of the Beles watershed under future climate change and land use scenarios compared to that of current period. The important inference from these findings is that it could be possible to alleviate intense floods or droughts due to future climate change by planning LULC to achieve particular hydrological effects of land cover in the basin. Continuing expansion of cultivation land and decrease in natural vegetation, coupled with increased rainfall due to climate change, would result in high surface runoff in the main rainy season, which would subsequently increase flooding, erosion and sedimentation in already degraded lands. Sound mitigation measures should therefore be applied to reduce these adverse environmental consequences. On the other hand, the simulated climate and land-use change impacts on the Tana watershed hydrological regime might increase the availability of streamflow to be harnessed by water-storage structures. In conclusion, the present study has developed an innovative approach to identify the major environmental stressors of critical source region of the Blue Nile River in order to effectively managing the water resources and climate risk. Understanding the catchment responses to environmental changes improves sustainability of the water resources management particularly given that the hydropower and the irrigation schemes are recently established for energy and food security.:TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES 1. General Introduction 2. The study area 3. Gap Filling and Homogenization of Climatological Datasets in the Headwater Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia Abstract 3.1. Introduction 3.1.1. Data 3.2. Methodology 3.2.1. Quality control and gap filling 3.2.2. Homogenization 3.3. Results and Discussion 3.3.1. Gap filling 3.3.2. Homogeneity 3.3.3. Verification of the homogenization 3.3.4. Impact of homogenization on the rainfall and temperature series 3.4. Conclusions Acknowledgements 4. Revisiting trend analysis of hydroclimatic data in the Upper Blue Nile basin based on homogenized data Abstract 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Data and Methodology 4. 2.1 Data 4. 2.2 Linear trend 4. 2.3 Trend magnitude 4.3 Results and Discussions 4.3.1. Linear mean climate trends 4.3.1.1. Rainfall 4.3.1.2. Maximum Temperature (Tmax) 4.3.1.3. Minimum Temperature (Tmin) 4.3.1.4. Mean temperature (Tmean) 4.3.1.5. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) 4.3.1.6. Streamflow 4.3.2. Effect of homogenization on Tmax, Tmin, Tmean and DTR linear trends 4.3.3. Linear extreme climate trends 4.3.1. Temperature 4.3.2. Precipitation 4.4 Conclusions Acknowledgements 5. Recent Changes in Land Use/Cover in the Headwater Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia 85 Abstract 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Materials and Methods 5.2.1 Data used and image pre-processing 5.2.2 Classification accuracy assessment 5.2.3 Extent and rate of change 5.2.4 Detecting the most systematic transitions (dominant signals of change) 5.4 Results and Discussion 5.4.1 Accuracy assessment 5.4.2 Extent and rate of LULC changes 5.4.3 Rate of land use and land cover change 5.4.4 Detection of most systematic transitions 5.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements 6. Hydrological Responses to Land use/cover Changes in the Tana and Beles Watersheds, the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Abstract 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Method 6.2.1 Hydrological modeling 6.2.2 Partial least squares regression 6.3 Results and Discussion 6.3.1 Calibration and validation of SWAT 6.3.2 Impacts of LULC changes on hydrology at the basin scale 6.3.3 Contribution of changes in individual LULCs to hydrological components 6.4 Conclusions Acknowledgements 7. Combined Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Hydrology in the Tana and Beles Sub-Basins, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Abstract 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Methodology 7.2.1 Simulation 7.2.2 Climate change scenarios 7.2.3 LULC change scenarios 7.3 Results and Discussion 7.3.1 Future versus current LULC impact on the basin hydrology 7.3.2 Future versus baseline climate 7.3.3 Impact of combined future climate and LULC changes on hydrology 7.4 Uncertainties and Limitations 7.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements 8. Overall Conclusions, Recommendations and Future Research Directions 8.1. Overall Conclusions 8.2 Recommendations and Directions for further research References

Dans un marché en permanente progression et pour répondre aux besoins des brasseurs en malt de qualité, la maîtrise du procédé de maltage est indispensable. La qualité du malt est fortement dépendante des conditions opératoires, en particulier des conditions de trempe, mais également de la qualité de la matière première : l'orge. Dans cette étude, nous avons établi des modèles polynomiaux qui mettent en relation les conditions opératoires et la qualité du malt. Ces modèles ont été couplés à nos algorithmes génétiques et nous ont permis de déterminer les conditions optimales de maltage, soit pour atteindre une qualité ciblée de malt (friabilité), soit pour permettre un maltage à faible teneur en eau (pour réduire la consommation en eau et maîtriser les coûts environnementaux de production) tout en conservant une qualité acceptable de malt. Cependant, la variabilité de la matière première est un facteur limitant de notre approche. Les modèles établis sont en effet très sensibles à l'espèce d'orge (printemps, hiver) ou encore à la variété d'orge utilisée. Les modèles sont surtout très dépendants de l'année de récolte. Les variations observées sur les propriétés d'une année de récolte à une autre sont mal caractérisées et ne sont donc pas intégrées dans nos modèles. Elles empêchent ainsi de capitaliser l'information expérimentale au cours du temps. Certaines propriétés structurelles de l'orge (porosité, dureté) ont été envisagées comme nouveaux facteurs pour mieux caractériser la matière première mais ils n'ont pas permis d'expliquer les variations observés en malterie.Afin de caractériser la matière première, 394 échantillons d'orge issus de 3 années de récolte différentes 2009-2010-2011 ont été analysés par spectroscopie MIR. Les analyses ACP ont confirmé l'effet notable des années de récolte, des espèces, des variétés voire des lieux de culture sur les propriétés de l'orge. Une régression PLS a permis, pour certaines années et pour certaines espèces, de prédire les teneurs en protéines et en béta-glucanes de l'orge à partir des spectres MIR. Cependant, ces résultats, pourtant prometteurs, se heurtent toujours à la variabilité. Ces nouveaux modèles PLS peuvent toutefois être exploités pour mettre en place des stratégies de pilotage du procédé de maltage à partir de mesures spectroscopiques MIR / In a continuously growing market and in order to meet the needs of Brewers in high quality malt, control of the malting process is a great challenge. Malt quality is highly dependent on the malting process operating conditions, especially on the steeping conditions, but also the quality of the raw material: barley. In this study, we established polynomial models that relate the operating conditions and the malt quality. These models have been coupled with our genetic algorithms to determine the optimal steeping conditions, either to obtain a targeted quality of malt (friability), or to allow a malting at low water content while maintaining acceptable quality of malt (to reduce water consumption and control the environmental costs of malt production). However, the variability of the raw material is a limiting factor for our approach. Established models are very sensitive to the species (spring and winter barley) or to the barley variety. The models are especially highly dependent on the crop year. Variations on the properties of a crop from one to another year are poorly characterized and are not incorporated in our models. They thus prevent us to capitalize experimental information over time. Some structural properties of barley (porosity, hardness) were considered as new factors to better characterize barley but they did not explain the observed variations.To characterize barley, 394 samples from 3 years of different crops 2009-2010-2011 were analysed by MIR spectroscopy. ACP analyses have confirmed the significant effect of the crop-years, species, varieties and sometimes of places of harvest on the properties of barley. A PLS regression allowed, for some years and for some species, to predict content of protein and beta-glucans of barley using MIR spectra. These results thus still face product variability, however, these new PLS models are very promising and could be exploited to implement control strategies in malting process using MIR spectroscopic measurements

O sensoriamento remoto é uma estratégia que pode ajudar no monitoramento da qualidade das pastagens. Objetivou-se com esse estudo analisar a resposta espectral das folhas de Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandú, adubada com doses crescentes de ureia, para diferenciar e predizer teores foliares de nitrogênio (TFN). Os tratamentos foram distribuídos em blocos ao acaso (DBC), composto por quatro blocos e quatro tratamentos, totalizando 16 parcelas. Foram utilizadas doses crescentes de adubação com ureia: 0, 25, 50, 75 kg de N/ha/corte. Ao longo do experimento foram realizadas 7 coletas, sendo coletadas 8 folhas por parcela. Essas folhas foram submetidas à análise hiperespectral e posterior análise química do teor de nitrogênio. Ao analisar a resposta espectral das folhas, observou-se diferenças estatísticas entre os tratamentos na região do visível em todas as coletas, com ênfase na região de 550 nm (verde). Por meio de análise discriminante linear (LDA) realizada para cada coleta, os centróides gerados por todos os tratamentos apresentaram diferenças significativas, com exceção do LD1 nas coletas 6 e 7 que não apresentou distinção entre os tratamentos de 50 e 75 kg de N/ha/corte, e LD2 na coleta 5 que não apresentou distinção entre os tratamentos de 0 e 50 kg de N/ha/corte. As equações de regressão multivariada obtidas pelo método de quadrados mínimos parciais (PLSR), geraram valores razoáveis a bons de R2 (0,53 a 0,83) na predição dos TFN, onde os comprimentos de onda com maior peso nessas regressões estão na região do red edge (715 a 720 nm). Por fim, ao testar a performance de alguns Índices de Vegetação da literatura, as coletas 4, 6 e 7 apresentaram bons coeficientes de determinação (R2) que variaram de 0,65 a 0,73; uma característica em comum nos índices que melhor estimaram os TFN é a presença de comprimentos de ondas que fazem parte da região do red edge. / Remote sensing is a set of techniques that can help to monitor pasture quality. The object of this study is to analyze the spectral response from Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandú leaves, under contrasting nitrogen levels, to differentiate and predict leaf nitrogen content. The treatments were set in a Randomized Block Design, composed of four blocks and four treatments, totaling 16 plots. Increasing doses of urea fertilization were used: 0, 25, 50, 75 kg N/ha/mowing. During the experiment, 7 data collections were performed, and 8 leaves per plot were extracted for each data collection. These leaves were submitted to hyperspectral data extraction and subsequent chemical analysis to quantify the nitrogen content. When analyzing the spectral pattern of the leaves, statistical differences among samples with different nitrogen levels were noticeable in the visible range of the spectrum in all the collections, with emphasis on the 550 nm region (green). Through linear discriminant analysis (LDA), performed for each collection, the generated centroids by the samples of each nitrogen level presented significant differences, except for LD1 in collections 6 and 7, which did not present a distinction between treatments of 50 and 75 kg of N/ha/mowing, and LD2 in collection 5 that did not distinguish between treatments of 0 and 50 kg of N/ha/mowing. The partial least square regression (PLSR) method generated reasonable to good values of R2 (0.53 to 0.83) for the prediction of leaf nitrogen content, where the wavelengths with the highest coefficient in these models are in the red edge region of the spectrum (715 to 720 nm). Finally, when testing the performance of some Vegetation Indexes from literature, collections 4, 6 and 7 presented good determination coefficients (R2) ranging from 0.65 to 0.73; a common feature in the indexes that best estimate the nitrogen content is the presence of wavelengths from the red edge region of the spectrum.

In this work, we study and extend algorithms for Sparse Regression and Causal Inference problems. Both the problems are fundamental in the area of Data Science. The goal of regression problem is to nd out the \best" relationship between an output variable and input variables, given samples of the input and output values. We consider sparse regression under a high-dimensional linear model with strongly correlated variables, situations which cannot be handled well using many existing model selection algorithms. We study the performance of the popular feature selection algorithms such as LASSO, Elastic Net, BoLasso, Clustered Lasso as well as Projected Gradient Descent algorithms under this setting in terms of their running time, stability and consistency in recovering the true support. We also propose a new feature selection algorithm, BoPGD, which cluster the features rst based on their sample correlation and do subsequent sparse estimation using a bootstrapped variant of the projected gradient descent method with projection on the non-convex L0 ball. We attempt to characterize the efficiency and consistency of our algorithm by performing a host of experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets. Discovering causal relationships, beyond mere correlation, is widely recognized as a fundamental problem. The Causal Inference problems use observations to infer the underlying causal structure of the data generating process. The input to these problems is either a multivariate time series or i.i.d sequences and the output is a Feature Causal Graph where the nodes correspond to the variables and edges capture the direction of causality. For high dimensional datasets, determining the causal relationships becomes a challenging task because of the curse of dimensionality. Graphical modeling of temporal data based on the concept of \Granger Causality" has gained much attention in this context. The blend of Granger methods along with model selection techniques, such as LASSO, enables efficient discovery of a \sparse" sub-set of causal variables in high dimensional settings. However, these temporal causal methods use an input parameter, L, the maximum time lag. This parameter is the maximum gap in time between the occurrence of the output phenomenon and the causal input stimulus. How-ever, in many situations of interest, the maximum time lag is not known, and indeed, finding the range of causal e ects is an important problem. In this work, we propose and evaluate a data-driven and computationally efficient method for Granger causality inference in the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model without foreknowledge of the maximum time lag. We present two algorithms Lasso Granger++ and Group Lasso Granger++ which not only constructs the hypothesis feature causal graph, but also simultaneously estimates a value of maxlag (L) for each variable by balancing the trade-o between \goodness of t" and \model complexity".

L’objectif de cette thèse était d’appliquer des méthodes d’analyse multivariées au traitement des données provenant de la spectroscopie de plasma induit par laser (LIBS) et de la spectroscopie térahertz (THz) dans le but d’accroître les performances analytiques de ces techniques.Les spectres LIBS provenaient de campagnes de mesures directes sur différents sites géologiques. Une approche univariée n’a pas été envisageable à cause d’importants effets de matrices et c’est pour cela qu’on a analysé les données provenant des spectres LIBS par réseaux de neurones artificiels (ANN). Cela a permis de quantifier plusieurs éléments mineurs et majeurs dans les échantillons de sol avec un écart relatif de prédiction inférieur à 20% par rapport aux valeurs de référence, jugé acceptable pour des analyses sur site. Dans certains cas, il a cependant été nécessaire de prendre en compte plusieurs modèles ANN, d’une part pour classer les échantillons de sol en fonction d’un seuil de concentration et de la nature de leur matrice, et d’autre part pour prédire la concentration d’un analyte. Cette approche globale a été démontrée avec succès dans le cas particulier de l’analyse du plomb pour un échantillon de sol inconnu. Enfin, le développement d’un outil de traitement par ANN a fait l’objet d’un transfert industriel.Dans un second temps, nous avons traité des spectres d’absorbance terahertz. Ce spectres provenaient de mesures d’absorbance sur des mélanges ternaires de Fructose-Lactose-acide citrique liés par du polyéthylène et préparés sous forme de pastilles. Une analyse semi-quantitative a été réalisée avec succès par analyse en composantes principales (ACP). Puis les méthodes quantitatives de régression par moindres carrés partiels (PLS) et de réseaux de neurons artificiels (ANN) ont permis de prédire les concentrations de chaque constituant de l’échantillon avec une valeur d’erreur quadratique moyenne inférieure à 0.95 %. Pour chaque méthode de traitement, le choix des données d’entrée et la validation de la méthode ont été discutés en détail. / The aim of this work was the application of multivariate methods to analyze spectral data from laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) and terahertz (THz) spectroscopy to improve the analytical ability of these techniques.In this work, the LIBS data were derived from on-site measurements of soil samples. The common univariate approach was not efficient enough for accurate quantitative analysis and consequently artificial neural networks (ANN) were applied. This allowed quantifying several major and minor elements into soil samples with relative error of prediction lower than 20% compared to reference values. In specific cases, a single ANN model didn’t allow to successfully achieving the quantitative analysis and it was necessary to exploit a series of ANN models, either for classification purpose against a concentration threshold or a matrix type, or for quantification. This complete approach based on a series of ANN models was efficiently applied to the quantitative analysis of unknown soil samples. Based on this work, a module of data treatment by ANN was included into the software Analibs of the IVEA company. The second part of this work was focused on the data treatment of absorbance spectra in the terahertz range. The samples were pressed pellets of mixtures of three products, namely fructose, lactose and citric acid with polyethylene as binder. A very efficient semi-quantitative analysis was conducted by using principal component analysis (PCA). Then, quantitative analyses based on partial least squares regression (PLS) and ANN allowed quantifying the concentrations of each product with a root mean square error (RMSE) lower than 0.95 %. All along this work on data processing, both the selection of input data and the evaluation of each model have been studied in details.

Human activities have increased the concentration of CO2 into the atmosphere, thus it has caused global warming. Construction equipment are semi-stationary machines and spend at least 30% of its life time during idling. The majority of the construction equipment is diesel powered and emits toxic emission into the environment. In this work, the idling will be investigated through adopting several statistical regressions models to quantify the fuel consumption of construction equipment during idling. The regression models which are studied in this work: Multivariate Linear Regression (ML-R), Support Vector Machine Regression (SVM-R), Gaussian Process regression (GP-R), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Partial Least Square Regression (PLS-R) and Principal Components Regression (PC-R). Findings show that pre-processing has a significant impact on the goodness of the prediction of the explanatory data analysis in this field. Moreover, through mean centering and application of the max-min scaling feature, the accuracy of models increased remarkably. ANN and GP-R had the highest accuracy (99%), PLS-R was the third accurate model (98% accuracy), ML-R was the fourth-best model (97% accuracy), SVM-R was the fifth-best (73% accuracy) and the lowest accuracy was recorded for PC-R (83% accuracy). The second part of this project estimated the CO2 emission based on the fuel used and by adopting the NONROAD2008 model.  Keywords:

Instrumental disparities and soil moisture are two of the key limitations in implementing spectroscopic techniques in the field. This study sought to address these challenges through two objectives. The first objective was to assess Visible-near infrared (VisNIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopic approaches and explore the feasibility of transferring calibration models between laboratory and portable spectrometers. The second objective addressed the challenge of soil moisture and its impact on spectra. The portable spectrometers demonstrated comparable performance to their laboratory-based counterparts in both regions. Spiking with extra-weight, was the most effective calibration transfer method eliminating disparities between instruments. The samples were rewetted under nine controlled conditions for the moisture study. Results showed that spiking with extra weights significantly outperformed other techniques and model enhancement was insensitive to the moisture contents. Findings of this study will be helpful for development and deployment of in situ sensors to enable field implementation of spectroscopy.