A intervenção no Banco Santos, em novembro de 2004, propiciou o surgimento de uma crise de liquidez em um segmento bem delimitado do mercado bancário brasileiro. O presente estudo procurou caracterizar e dimensionar o fenômeno com base em dados contábeis e informações publicamente disponíveis de 84 instituições do mercado. Utilizou-se a análise gráfica associada à análise de correlação para avaliar o comportamento dos saldos das contas Depósitos antes e após a intervenção. Como resultado, os bancos foram segregados em 5 grupos. O grupo que agregou os maiores bancos do mercado passou a ser o grupo de controle para a análise. A delimitação do grupo dos bancos, presumivelmente, contagiados (grupo de estudo) possibilitou avaliar a evolução dos resgates de depósitos e o papel das carteiras de crédito e de títulos como provedoras de liquidez. A análise realçou a importância dos depósitos compulsórios sobre depósitos a prazo como reserva de liquidez. Determinou-se também o volume de créditos cedidos ao longo do período. Concluiu-se que houve uma mudança no perfil das carteiras de crédito dos bancos afetados, com um aumento do percentual aprovisionado para risco de crédito, aproximando-o dos valores do grupo de controle, que utiliza critérios mais conservadores. Procurou-se, por fim, cotejar os eventos observados e as características do sistema financeiro brasileiro com o arcabouço teórico e empírico existente, principalmente em relação a dois aspectos: fundamentos que justificam o exercício da supervisão bancária e teoria das cascatas de informações analisada no âmbito das corridas bancárias. / The intervention on a small bank (banco Santos), in November 2004, has provoked a liquidity crisis on a specific segment of the Brazilian banking market. The objective of this case study has been to assess and characterize the phenomenon, based on balance sheet data and public information about 84 financial institutions of the market. Through graphical analysis associated with statistical correlation analysis, the behavior of the deposit account, before and after the intervention, was determined. As a result banks have been classified on five different groups. The group with the biggest banks was designed as the control group and banks that have showed loss of deposits and could have been, potentially, affected by a liquidity crisis were denominated as study group. The definition of the, presumable, contaminated group of banks has permitted to assess the evolution of deposits? withdraws as well as the role of the credit and security portfolios as providers of liquidity. The analysis has shown the importance of the reserve requirements over time deposits as a liquidity reservoir. It has also been determined the volume of credit transferred along the period of analysis. The conclusion is that the credit loss provision has augmented, getting closer to the values of the control group that uses more conservative provision standards. This study has also evaluated the observed events and the characteristics of the Brazilian financial system, with theoretical and experimental background, mainly focusing two aspects: fundaments that justify the exercise of banking supervision and the theory of information cascades on basis of the bank runs.

A intervenção no Banco Santos, em novembro de 2004, propiciou o surgimento de uma crise de liquidez em um segmento bem delimitado do mercado bancário brasileiro. O presente estudo procurou caracterizar e dimensionar o fenômeno com base em dados contábeis e informações publicamente disponíveis de 84 instituições do mercado. Utilizou-se a análise gráfica associada à análise de correlação para avaliar o comportamento dos saldos das contas Depósitos antes e após a intervenção. Como resultado, os bancos foram segregados em 5 grupos. O grupo que agregou os maiores bancos do mercado passou a ser o grupo de controle para a análise. A delimitação do grupo dos bancos, presumivelmente, contagiados (grupo de estudo) possibilitou avaliar a evolução dos resgates de depósitos e o papel das carteiras de crédito e de títulos como provedoras de liquidez. A análise realçou a importância dos depósitos compulsórios sobre depósitos a prazo como reserva de liquidez. Determinou-se também o volume de créditos cedidos ao longo do período. Concluiu-se que houve uma mudança no perfil das carteiras de crédito dos bancos afetados, com um aumento do percentual aprovisionado para risco de crédito, aproximando-o dos valores do grupo de controle, que utiliza critérios mais conservadores. Procurou-se, por fim, cotejar os eventos observados e as características do sistema financeiro brasileiro com o arcabouço teórico e empírico existente, principalmente em relação a dois aspectos: fundamentos que justificam o exercício da supervisão bancária e teoria das cascatas de informações analisada no âmbito das corridas bancárias. / The intervention on a small bank (banco Santos), in November 2004, has provoked a liquidity crisis on a specific segment of the Brazilian banking market. The objective of this case study has been to assess and characterize the phenomenon, based on balance sheet data and public information about 84 financial institutions of the market. Through graphical analysis associated with statistical correlation analysis, the behavior of the deposit account, before and after the intervention, was determined. As a result banks have been classified on five different groups. The group with the biggest banks was designed as the control group and banks that have showed loss of deposits and could have been, potentially, affected by a liquidity crisis were denominated as study group. The definition of the, presumable, contaminated group of banks has permitted to assess the evolution of deposits? withdraws as well as the role of the credit and security portfolios as providers of liquidity. The analysis has shown the importance of the reserve requirements over time deposits as a liquidity reservoir. It has also been determined the volume of credit transferred along the period of analysis. The conclusion is that the credit loss provision has augmented, getting closer to the values of the control group that uses more conservative provision standards. This study has also evaluated the observed events and the characteristics of the Brazilian financial system, with theoretical and experimental background, mainly focusing two aspects: fundaments that justify the exercise of banking supervision and the theory of information cascades on basis of the bank runs.

This study is focused on real estate funds formed in Germany and has two major purposes: first to investigate the liquidity crisis and followed change of the legal framework for German real estate funds and secondly to demonstrate the impact on investment selection criteria of German real estate investment companies . By both quantitative and qualitative methods the thesis approaches those two different purposes. The quantitative part provides theoretical background about the construct of open-end and closed-end real estate funds and about the triggers and effects of the liquidity crisis. The qualitative part consists of an online survey that was sent to German real estate investment companies in which respondents indicated their preferred criteria for real estate investment opportunities. Furthermore telephone interviews on this topic were conducted with four German real estate investment experts. In the end the findings from the survey and the interviews are applied to a case study about a trophy asset in Luxembourg, in order to analyze if this property meets the investment criteria of German real estate funds. The survey and the conducted interviews indicate that German real estate investment companies have adapted to the risk-averse investment behaviour of investors and preferably make safe haven investments in terms of the investment style, the location of the real estate asset and the characteristics of the property itself and its tenants. The case study as well confirms this result.

This dissertation presents a liquidity stress-testing model for evaluating liquidity and systemic risk in banks from developed and emerging economies respectively. The model further relies on simulations to generate liquidity buffer losses for both a non-crisis and crisis period as well. The emerging economy is represented by South Africa (SA) and the developed economy by the United Kingdom (henceforth UK). The Liquidity Stress Tester model (LST) has been successfully applied to both the Dutch and UK markets in previous research. The model's flexibility and adaptability allows it to assess different banking systems and different reactions (buffer restoration and leverage targeting) of participants within these milieus. The LST considers feedback effects arising from bank reactions and allows for the assessment of severely stressed haircuts and systemic risk increases caused by reputation degradation and increased contagion from other banks. Losses stemming from the second round effects of a liquidity event are explored through the reactions conducted by banks in the banking system. The study conducts a review of liquidity risk models utilised in previous research. Characteristics of these models and the data they used are highlighted, shedding light on the advantages and shortcomings of these models. Possible restrictions in liquidity risk management are also explored. The study discusses the relevance of the South African/UK economies' comparison, as well as the selected periods chosen for investigation. To assist further research with the LST, the study illustrates and discusses how it is modelled and developed in Microsoft Office Excel. The results obtained illustrate the potential severity of second round feedback effects of a liquidity event on liquidity positions in banks. The effects of mitigating actions conducted by banking institutions reacting to initial liquidity stress shocks are explored, as well as the way these actions could potentially affect second round effects on banks. The analysis and discussion of simulated results attempts to isolate and identify characteristics of economies and periods used that may have contributed to specific liquidity events. The study concludes with a summary of the research and suggestions for possible future work and development using the LST. / MCom (Risk Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

This dissertation presents a liquidity stress-testing model for evaluating liquidity and systemic risk in banks from developed and emerging economies respectively. The model further relies on simulations to generate liquidity buffer losses for both a non-crisis and crisis period as well. The emerging economy is represented by South Africa (SA) and the developed economy by the United Kingdom (henceforth UK). The Liquidity Stress Tester model (LST) has been successfully applied to both the Dutch and UK markets in previous research. The model's flexibility and adaptability allows it to assess different banking systems and different reactions (buffer restoration and leverage targeting) of participants within these milieus. The LST considers feedback effects arising from bank reactions and allows for the assessment of severely stressed haircuts and systemic risk increases caused by reputation degradation and increased contagion from other banks. Losses stemming from the second round effects of a liquidity event are explored through the reactions conducted by banks in the banking system. The study conducts a review of liquidity risk models utilised in previous research. Characteristics of these models and the data they used are highlighted, shedding light on the advantages and shortcomings of these models. Possible restrictions in liquidity risk management are also explored. The study discusses the relevance of the South African/UK economies' comparison, as well as the selected periods chosen for investigation. To assist further research with the LST, the study illustrates and discusses how it is modelled and developed in Microsoft Office Excel. The results obtained illustrate the potential severity of second round feedback effects of a liquidity event on liquidity positions in banks. The effects of mitigating actions conducted by banking institutions reacting to initial liquidity stress shocks are explored, as well as the way these actions could potentially affect second round effects on banks. The analysis and discussion of simulated results attempts to isolate and identify characteristics of economies and periods used that may have contributed to specific liquidity events. The study concludes with a summary of the research and suggestions for possible future work and development using the LST. / MCom (Risk Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013

Le risque de liquidité des banques reflète leur fonction de création de liquidité. Ces institutions sont fragiles par nature, exposées à la menace de ruées des créanciers de court terme. La thèse contribue par plusieurs aspects à une meilleure compréhension du risque de liquidité. Le deuxième chapitre propose une mesure de la fragilité bancaire basée sur la valeur des actifs détenus. Les résultats confirment de manière originale le caractère fragile des banques. La fonction de production de liquidité bancaire est toutefois bénéfique pour l’économie. Le troisième chapitre propose une analyse de la capacité des banques à produire de la liquidité en lien avec leurs choix d’activité et leur business model. La production d’information dans le cadre d’un modèle relationnel et la capacité à bénéficier de synergies informationnelles entre segments d’activité apparaissent comme déterminant l’efficacité de la production de liquidité bancaire. Néanmoins, l’exposition excessive des banques au risque de liquidité est à l’origine des crises. Le quatrième chapitre évalue l’exposition des banques au risque de liquidité en fonction de l’évolution des conditions générales de liquidité. Les résultats soulignent l’impact différencié des chocs de liquidité sur le risque supporté par les banques. / Bank liquidity risk reflects the function of banks to create liquidity. Banks are fragile, exposed to the possibility of runs from short-term creditors. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of bank liquidity risk. The second chapter proposes a measure of bank fragility based on the value of the assets held by a bank. Results confirm, in an original way, the fragile nature of banks. However, bank liquidity creation benefits to the economy. The third chapter analyses the capacity of banks to produce liquidity in conjunction with their choices in terms of activity and business model. Determinants of the efficiency to produce liquidity appear to be the bank capacity to produce information through a relationship-oriented business model and to benefit from informational synergies through the activity mix. Nevertheless, excessive exposition of banks to liquidity risk results in bank liquidity crises. The fourth chapter investigates bank exposition to liquidity risk depending on the evolution of aggregate liquidity conditions. Results underline the heterogenous effect of liquidity shocks on the risk borne by banks.

A key lesson learnt from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis was that central banks focused too much on price stability and monetary policy. Financial stability and macroprudential policy were the missing pillars to ensure proper supervision of the financial system. This study examines the challenges faced by central banks in implementing macroprudential policies, while having limited experience as to the effect on their economies. The countercyclical capital buffer is generally considered to be one of the main macroprudential policy instruments. Using South African data, the study furthermore calculates the credit gap which serves as early warning indicator of excessive credit growth and is used to determine the point at which a countercyclical capital buffer should be activated for banks. The calculation of the countercyclical buffer indicates that the credit gap remains below the lower threshold of the buffer add-on. Hence, there is no reason to consider a capital add-on for South African banks as yet. Despite the overall reliability of the credit gap, concerns remain on its reliability under certain circumstances. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)