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Long-range summer rainfall: forecast of Hong Kong.January 1990 (has links)
Tung Wai Lan, Iris. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1990. / Bibliography: leaves 92-101. / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS / ABSTRACT / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / CHAPTER / Chapter I --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Background --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Significance of the Research --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- Objectives of the Research --- p.5 / Chapter 1.4 --- Organization of the Research --- p.5 / Chapter II --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.7 / Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2 --- Development of Long-Range Forecasting Technique --- p.8 / Chapter 2.3 --- Available Techniques of Long-Range Forecast --- p.9 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Analogs and persistence --- p.10 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- Statistical modelling --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- Atmosphere-ocean interaction --- p.17 / Chapter 2.3.4 --- Cycles and time series --- p.18 / Chapter 2.3.5 --- Numerical modelling --- p.19 / Chapter 2.4 --- Rainfall Prediction in Hong Kong --- p.21 / Chapter III --- RAINFALL OF HONG KONG --- p.24 / Chapter 3.1 --- Climatic Feature --- p.24 / Chapter 3.2 --- The Causes of Hong Kong Rainfall --- p.26 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Tropical cyclone --- p.26 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Trough or front --- p.28 / Chapter IV --- METHODOLOGY --- p.31 / Chapter 4.1 --- Introduction --- p.31 / Chapter 4.2 --- Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Analysis --- p.32 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- What's EOF --- p.32 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Why use EOF --- p.34 / Chapter 4.3 --- Discriminant Analysis --- p.36 / Chapter 4.4 --- Data Base --- p.37 / Chapter 4.5 --- Computation Procedures --- p.40 / Chapter 4.6 --- Analysis of Forecast Capability --- p.44 / Chapter V --- THE RESULT AND ANALYSIS OF PREDICTION MODEL --- p.48 / Chapter 5.1 --- The result of EOF analysis --- p.48 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- Extraction of eigenvectors and eigenvalues --- p.48 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- Spatial and Temporal variation of eigenvector pattern --- p.52 / Chapter 5.2 --- Accuracy of the prediction model --- p.53 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Introduction --- p.53 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- The forecast accuracy from each month --- p.54 / Chapter 5.2.2.1 --- The forecast accuracy made by October --- p.54 / Chapter 5.2.2.2 --- The forecast accuracy made by November --- p.56 / Chapter 5.2.2.3 --- The forecast accuracy made by December --- p.58 / Chapter 5.2.2.4 --- The forecast accuracy made by January --- p.58 / Chapter 5.2.2.5 --- The forecast accuracy made by February --- p.61 / Chapter 5.2.2.6 --- The forecast accuracy made by March --- p.61 / Chapter 5.2.2.7 --- The forecast accuracy made by April --- p.64 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Optimal length of dependent data --- p.64 / Chapter 5.2.4 --- Analysis the prediction results --- p.67 / Chapter 5.2.5 --- Comparison between the method used in this study with those methods adopted by ROHK --- p.69 / Chapter 5.2.5.1 --- Introduction --- p.69 / Chapter 5.2.5.2 --- Comparison of the forecast accuracy between two studies --- p.70 / Chapter VI --- CONCLUSION --- p.73 / Chapter 6.1 --- Summary of Findings --- p.73 / Chapter 6.2 --- Limitations of the Research --- p.75 / Chapter 6.3 --- Prospects of the Research --- p.76 / APPENDICES --- p.78 / LIST OF CITED REFERENCES --- p.92 / LIST OF READING MATERIALS --- p.97
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Contrôle de l’émission dans des nanostructures plasmoniques : nanoantennes multimères et plasmons long-range / Control of the emission in plasmonic nanostructures : multimer nanoantennas and long-range plasmonsPaparone, Julien 05 October 2016 (has links)
L'objet de cette thèse est le couplage entre des nanocristaux luminescents et des nanostructures métalliques. Ces structures présentent nombre d'intérêts dans un large panel d'applications de par l'apparition de modes électromagnétiques de surface (dénommés plasmons) que l'on contrôle via la géométrie de ces structures. Dans cette thèse, j'étudie deux types de nanostructures métalliques différentes : les plasmons « long-range» et les nanoantennes plasmoniques.Dans un premier temps je me suis intéressé à une géométrie qui couple deux plasmons propagatifs en deux modes hybrides au travers d'une fine couche de métal pour former des plasmons à forte longueur de propagations. En couplant des nanocristaux luminescents à ces modes, la répartition en énergie de l'émission dans les différents canaux de désexcitation disponibles a été étudiée. J'ai aussi montré que le métal pouvait augmenter leur taux d'émission spontanée d'un facteur 1,7. La contribution non négligeable des modes de guide conventionnels à l'émission dans ces structure a également été mise en évidence.Dans un second temps, j'ai étudié la potentielle utilisation de nanoparticules métalliques comme nanoantennes pour exalter et rediriger l'émission spontanée. La structure sera composée d'un dimère métallique créant un «point chaud » placé à proximité d'un plot métallique permettant la redirection. Des calculs FDTD montrent qu'une géométrie en pilier permet à la fois des pertes faibles (<10%), une forte augmentation de la cadence d'émission(>x80), une redirection de la lumière et ouvre la possibilité de multiplexage directif en longueur d'onde de l'information. Ces structures présentent l'avantage d'être compatibles avec les techniques modernes d'élaboration en couche mince. Des réalisations préliminaires ont alors été présentées / The object of this thesis is the coupling between luminescent nanocristals and metallic nanostructures. These structures show numerous interest in a large variety of applications thanks to the apparition of electromagnetic surface wave known as plasmons whose properties are tailored with the geometry of these structures. In this thesis, two types of geometry will be adressed : the long-range plasmons, and plasmonic nanoantennas. In a first time, the study focuses on a geometry in which two propagative surface plasmons are coupled through a thin metal film; creating a new type of plasmons with extended propagation lenghts. By coupling the emission of nanocristals in such a geometry, the energy repartition in the different desexcitation channels available has been adressed. The viccinity of the metal has also proved to increase the spontaneous decay rate up to 1.7. The non trivial contribution of conventional waveguide modes has also been demonstrated. In a second time, the potential of using metallic nanoparticles in a pillar geometry as nanoantennas to enhance and redirect the spontaneous emission has been investigated. The structure is composed of a metallic dimer creating a hotspot on top of which another metallic nanoparticles has been placed. FDTD simulations has shown that this kind of geometry can lead to few loss (<10%), a strong enhancement of the emission rate (>x80), a redirection of the emission and paves the way to wavelenght multiplexing possibilities. Besides, these structures present the advantage to be compatible with modern thin film elaboration techniques. Preliminary realisations have then been introduced
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Untersuchungen zur Entfernungsmessung terrestrischer Long-Range LaserscannerMartienßen, Thomas, Geier, Andreas, Wand, Robert 29 July 2016 (has links)
Der vorliegende Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit Untersuchungen zur Entfernungsmessung terrestrischer Long-Range Laserscanner. Für diese Studie wurden dem Institut für Markscheidewesen und Geodäsie dankenswerter Weise von der Firma RIEGL ein Laserscanner VZ-4000 zur Verfügung gestellt. In diesem Beitrag werden der Versuchsaufbau erläutert und erste Ergebnisse des Soll-Ist-Vergleiches gezeigt. Die unterschiedlichen Einflussgrößen, wie Temperatur und Luftdruck, die bei Messungen auf große Entfernungen eine Rolle spielen, werden angesprochen. / This paper deals with actual researches for measuring distances of terrestrial long-range Laser scanners. The Institute for Mine Surveying and Geodesy had a laser scanner VZ-4000 by the company RIEGL easy and unconventional provided. The paper presents the experimental setup and the results of the target-actual comparison. Several influences, for example temperature and atmospheric pressure, are considered for long-range measurements.
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From cheek swabs to consensus sequences: an A to Z protocol for high-throughput DNA sequencing of complete human mitochondrial genomesClarke, Andrew, Prost, Stefan, Stanton, Jo-Ann, White, W. T., Kaplan, Matthew, Matisoo-Smith, Elizabeth, The, Genographic Consortium January 2014 (has links)
BACKGROUND:Next-generation DNA sequencing (NGS) technologies have made huge impacts in many fields of biological research, but especially in evolutionary biology. One area where NGS has shown potential is for high-throughput sequencing of complete mtDNA genomes (of humans and other animals). Despite the increasing use of NGS technologies and a better appreciation of their importance in answering biological questions, there remain significant obstacles to the successful implementation of NGS-based projects, especially for new users.RESULTS:Here we present an 'A to Z' protocol for obtaining complete human mitochondrial (mtDNA) genomes - from DNA extraction to consensus sequence. Although designed for use on humans, this protocol could also be used to sequence small, organellar genomes from other species, and also nuclear loci. This protocol includes DNA extraction, PCR amplification, fragmentation of PCR products, barcoding of fragments, sequencing using the 454 GS FLX platform, and a complete bioinformatics pipeline (primer removal, reference-based mapping, output of coverage plots and SNP calling).CONCLUSIONS:All steps in this protocol are designed to be straightforward to implement, especially for researchers who are undertaking next-generation sequencing for the first time. The molecular steps are scalable to large numbers (hundreds) of individuals and all steps post-DNA extraction can be carried out in 96-well plate format. Also, the protocol has been assembled so that individual 'modules' can be swapped out to suit available resources.
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Statistical thermodynamics of long-range quantum spin systemsOlivier, G. J. F. (Gerrit Jacobus Francois) 03 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT:In this thesis we discuss some of the anomalies present in systems with long-range interactions,
for instance negative speci c heat and negative magnetic susceptibility, and show how
they can be related to the convexity properties of the thermodynamic potentials and nonequivalence
of ensembles. We also discuss the possibility of engineering long-range quantum
spin systems with cold atoms in optical lattices to experimentally verify the existence of nonequivalence
of ensembles. We then formulate an expression for the density of states when
the energy and magnetisation correspond to a pair of non-commuting operators. Finally we
analytically compute the entropy s( ;m) as a function of energy, , and magnetisation, m, for
the anisotropic Heisenberg model with Curie-Weiss type interactions. The results show that
the entropy is non-concave in terms of magnetisation under certain circumstances which in
turn indicates that the microcanonical and canonical ensembles are not equivalent and that
the magnetic susceptibility is negative. After making an appropriate change of variables we
show that a second-order phase transition can be present at negative temperatures in the
microcanonical ensemble which cannot be represented in the canonical ensemble. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie tesis bespreek ons van die onverwagte eienskappe wat sisteme met lang afstand wisselwerkings
kan openbaar, byvoorbeeld negatiewe spesi eke warmte en negatiewe magnetiese
suseptibiliteit. Ons dui ook die ooreenkoms tussen hierdie gedrag en die konveksiteit van
die termodinamiese potensiale en nie-ekwivalente ensembles aan. Hierna bespreek ons die
moontlikheid om lang afstand kwantum spin sisteme te realiseer met koue atome in 'n optiese
rooster. Daarna wys ons hoe dit moontlik is om 'n uitdrukking vir die digtheid van toestande
te formuleer vir sisteme waar die energie en magnetisasie ooreenstem met operatore wat nie
met mekaar kommuteer nie. Uiteindelik bepaal ons die entropie, s( ;m), in terme van die
energie, , en magnetisasie, m, vir die anisotropiese Heisenberg model met Curie-Weiss tipe
interaksies. Die resultate wys dat die entropie onder sekere omstandighede nie konkaaf in
terme van magnetisasie is nie. Dit, op sy beurt, dui aan dat die mikrokanoniese en kanoniese
ensembles nie ekwivalent is nie en dat die magnetiese suseptibiliteit negatief kan wees.
Nadat ons 'n toepaslike transformasie van veranderlikes maak, wys ons dat 'n tweede orde
fase-oorgang by negatiewe temperature kan plaasvind in die mikrokanoniese ensemble wat nie
verteenwoordig kan word in die kanoniese ensemble nie.
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Investigations of memory, entanglement, and long-range interactions using ultra-cold atomsDudin, Yaroslav 20 June 2012 (has links)
Long-term storage of quantum information has diverse applications in quantum information science. This work presents an experimental realization of quantum memories with lifetimes greater then 0.1 s. The memories are based on cold rubidium atoms confined in one-dimensional optical lattices. First realization of lattice-based quantum memory and entanglement between a light field and a spin wave is presented in Chapter II. Chapter III describes two different methods (two-photon and magnetic) of compensation for inhomogeneous differential light shifts between the memory levels due to optical trapping potentials, and demonstration of entanglement between a telecom-band light field and a light-shift compensated memory qubit. Highly excited Rydberg atoms present a unique platform for study of strongly correlated systems and quantum information, because of their enormous dipole moments and consequent strong, long-range interactions. In the experiment described in Chapter IV single collective Rydberg excitations are created in a cold atomic gas. After a variable storage period the excitations are converted into light. As the principal quantum number n of the Rydberg level is increased beyond ~ 70, no more than a single excitation is retrieved from the entire mesoscopic ensemble of atoms. In Chapter V, by spatially selective conversion of the spin wave into a light field, we demonstrate that Rydberg-level interactions create long-range correlations of collective atomic excitations. These results hold promise for studies of dynamics and disorder in many-body systems with tunable interactions and for scalable quantum information networks. Chapter VI presents initial observations of coherent many-body Rabi oscillations between the ground level and a Rydberg level using several hundred cold rubidium atoms. The strongly pronounced oscillations indicate a nearly complete excitation blockade of the entire mesoscopic ensemble by a single excited atom.
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Atmospheric Chemistry of Polyfluorinated Compounds: Long-lived Greenhouse Gases and Sources of Perfluorinated AcidsYoung, Cora Jean Louise 15 September 2011 (has links)
Fluorinated compounds are environmentally persistent and have been demonstrated to bioaccumulate and contribute to climate change. The focus of this work was to better understand the atmospheric chemistry of poly- and per-fluorinated compounds in order to appreciate their impacts on the environment. Several fluorinated compounds exist for which data on climate impacts do not exist. Radiative efficiencies (REs) and atmospheric lifetimes of two new long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) were determined using smog chamber techniques: perfluoropolyethers and perfluoroalkyl amines. Through this, it was observed that RE was not directly related to the number of carbon-fluorine bonds. A structure-activity relationship was created to allow the determination of RE solely from the chemical structure of the compound. Also, a novel method was developed to detect polyfluorinated LLGHGs in the atmosphere. Using carbotrap, thermal desorption and cryogenic extraction coupled to GC-MS, atmospheric measurements can be made for a number of previously undetected compounds. A perfluoroalkyl amine was detected in the atmosphere using this technique, which is the compound with the highest RE ever detected in the atmosphere.
Perfluorocarboxylic acids (PFCAs) are water soluble and non-volatile, suggesting they are not susceptible to long-range transport. A hypothesis was derived to explain the ubiquitous distribution of these compounds involving atmospheric formation of PFCAs from volatile precursors. Using smog chamber techniques with offline analysis, perfluorobutenes and fluorotelomer iodides were shown to yield PFCAs from atmospheric oxidation. Dehydrofluorination of perfluorinated alcohols (PFOHs) is poorly understood in the mechanism of PFCA atmospheric formation. Using density functional techniques, overtone-induced photolysis was shown to lead to dehydrofluorination of PFOHs. In the presence of water, this mechanism could be a sink of PFOHs in the atmosphere. Confirmation of the importance of volatile precursors was derived from examination of snow from High Arctic ice caps. This provided the first empirical evidence of atmospheric deposition. Through the analytes observed, fluxes and temporal trends, it was concluded that atmospheric oxidation of volatile precursors is an important source of PFCAs to the Arctic.
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Conceptual Framework for the Development of an Air Quality Monitoring Station in Denton, TexasBoling, Robyn 08 1900 (has links)
Denton, Texas consistently reaches ozone nonattainment levels. This has led to a large focus of air pollution monitoring efforts in the region, with long-range transport being explored as a key contributor. For this study, the University of North Texas Discovery Park campus was chosen as a prospective location for an extensive air quality monitoring station. Sixteen years of ozone and meteorological data for five state-run monitoring sites within a 25 mile radius, including the nearest Denton Airport site, was gathered from TCEQ online database for the month of April for the years 2000 to 2015. The data was analyzed to show a historical, regional perspective of ozone near the proposed site. The maximum ozone concentration measured at the Denton Airport location over the 16 year period was measured at 96 ppb in 2001. Experimental ozone and meteorological measurements were collected at the Discovery Park location from March 26 to April 3 and April 8 to April, 2016 and compared to the Denton Airport monitoring site. A time lag in ozone trends and an increase in peak ozone concentrations at the proposed location were observed at the proposed site in comparison to the Denton Airport site. Historical and experimental meteorological data agreed in indicating that southern winds that rarely exceed 20 miles per hour are the predominant wind pattern. Back trajectories, wind roses, pollution roses, and bivariate plots created for peak ozone days during experimental periods support long range transport as a considerable cause of high ozone levels in Denton. Furthermore, a study of the precursor characteristics at the Denton Airport site indicated the site was being affected by a local source of nitrogen dioxide that was not affecting the proposed location. The differences in the Denton Airport site and the proposed site indicate that further monitoring at Discovery Park would be insightful. An outline of an expansive mobile monitoring station and suggestions for effective utilization are provided to guide future studies in Denton and the surrounding North Texas region.
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Signal processing methods for defect detection in multi-wire helical waveguides using ultrasonic guided wavesYucel, Mehmet Kerim January 2015 (has links)
Non-Destructive Testing of industrial components carries vital importance, both financially and safety-wise. Among all Non-Destructive techniques, Long Range Ultrasonic Testing utilizing the guided wave phenomena is a young technology proven to be commercially valid. Owing to its well-documented analytical models, Ultrasonic Guided Waves has been successfully applied to cylindrical and plate-like structures. Its applications to complex structures such as multi-wire cables are fairly immature, mainly due to the high complexity of wave propagation. Research performed by the author approaches the long range inspection of overhead transmission line cables using ultrasonic guided waves. Existing studies focusing on guided wave application on power cables are extremely limited in inspection range, which dramatically degrades its chances of commercialization. This thesis consists of three main chapters, all of which approaches different problems associated with the inspection of power cables. In the first chapter, a thorough analysis of wave propagation in ACSR (most widely used power cable) cables is conducted. It is shown that high frequency guided waves, by concentrating the energy on the surface layers, can travel much further in the form of fundamental longitudinal wave mode, than previous studies have shown. Defect detection studies proved the system’s capability of detecting defects which introduce either increase or decrease in cross sectional area of the cable. Results of the chapter indicate the detectability of defects as small as 4.5% of the cross sectional area through a 26.5 meter long cable without any post-processing. In the second chapter, several algorithms are proposed to increase the inspection range and signal quality. Well-documented wavelet-denoising algorithm is optimized for power cables and up to 24% signal-to-noise ratio improvement is achieved. By introducing an attenuation correction framework, a theoretical inspection range of 75 meters is presented. A new framework combining dispersion compensation and attenuation correction is proposed and verified, which shows an inspection range of 130 meters and SNR improvement up to 8 dBs. Last chapter addresses the accurate localization of structural defects. Having proven the optimum excitation and related wave propagation in ACSR cables, a system having a more complex wave propagation characteristics is studied. A new algorithm combining pulse compression using Maximal Length Sequences and dispersion compensation is applied to multi-modal signals obtained from a solid aluminum rod. The algorithm proved to be able to improve signal quality and extract an accurate location for defects. Maximal Length Sequences are compared to chirp signals in terms of SNR improvement and localization, which produced favourable results for MLS in terms of localization and for chirp in terms of SNR improvement.
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The contribution of seasonal climate forecasts to the management of agricultural disaster-risk in South AfricaKgakatsi, Ikalafeng Ben 06 February 2015 (has links)
A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. July 2014. / South Africa’s climate is highly variable, implying that the national agricultural
sector should make provision to have early warning services in place in order to
reduce the risks of disasters. More than 70% of natural disasters worldwide are
caused by weather and climate or weather and climate related hazards. Reliable
Seasonal Climate Forecasting (SCF) for South Africa would have the potential to be
of great benefit to users in addressing disaster risk reduction. A disaster is a serious
disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, causing widespread
human, material, economic or environmental losses, which exceed the ability of the
affected community or society to cope when using their own resources. The negative
impacts on agricultural production in South Africa due to natural disasters including
disasters due to increasing climate variability and climate change are critical to the
sector.
The hypothesis assumed in the study is the improved early warning service and better
SCF dissemination lead to more effective and better decision making for subsequent
disaster risk reduction in the agricultural sector. The most important aspect of
knowledge management in early warning operations is that of distributing the most
useful service to the target group that needs it at the right time. This will not only
ensure maximum performance of the entity responsible for issuing the early
warnings, but will also ensure the maximum benefit to the target group.
South Africa is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters that are afflicted
by localised incidents of seasonal droughts, floods and flash floods that have
devastating impacts on agriculture and food security. Such disasters might affect
agricultural production decisions, as well as agricultural productivity. Planting dates
and plant selection are decisions that depend on reliable and accurate meteorological
and climatological knowledge and services for agriculture. Early warning services
that could be used to facilitate informed decision making includes advisories on
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future soil moisture conditions in order to determine estimated planting times, on
future grazing capacity, on future water availability and on forecasts of the following
season’s weather and climate, whenever that is possible. The involvement of
government structures, obviously, is also critical in immediate responses and long term
interventions.
The importance of creating awareness, of offering training workshops on climate
knowledge and SCF, and of creating effective early warning services dissemination
channels is realized by government. This is essential in order to put effective early
warning services in place as a disaster-risk coping tool. Early warning services,
however, can only be successful if the end-users are aware of what early warning
systems, structures and technologies are in place, and if they are willing that those
issuing the early warning services become involved in the decision-making process.
Integrated disaster-risk reduction initiatives in government programmes, effective
dissemination structures, natural resource-management projects and communityparticipation
programmes are only a few examples of actions that will contribute to
the development of effective early warning services, and the subsequent response to
and adoption of the advices/services strategies by the people most affected. The
effective distribution of the most useful early warning services to the end-user, who
needs it at the right time through the best governing structures, may significantly
improve decision making in the agricultural, food security and other water-sensitive
sectors. Developed disaster-risk policies for extension and farmers as well as other
disaster prone sectors should encourage self-reliance and the sustainable use of
natural resources, and will reduce the need for government intervention.
The SCF producers (e.g. the South African Weather Service (SAWS)) have issued
new knowledge to intermediaries for some years now, and it is important to
determine whether this knowledge has been used in services, and if so whether these
services were applied effectively in coping with disaster-risks and in disaster
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reduction initiatives and programmes. This study for that reason also intends to do an
evaluation of the knowledge communication processes between forecasters, and
intermediaries at national and provincial government levels. It therefore, aims to
assess and evaluate the current knowledge communication structures within the
national agricultural sector, seeking to improve disaster-risk reduction through
effective early warning services. A boundary organisation is an organization which
crosses the boundary between science, politics and end-users as they draw on the
interests and knowledge of agencies on both sides to facilitate evidence base and
socially beneficial policies and programmes.
Reducing uncertainty in SCF is potentially of enormous economic value especially to
the rural communities. The potential for climate science to deliver reduction in total
SCF uncertainty is associated entirely with the contributions from internal variability
and model uncertainty. The understanding of the limitations of the SCFs as a result of
uncertainties is very important for decision making and to end-users during planning.
Disappointing, however, is that several studies have shown a fairly narrow group of
potential users actually receive SCFs, with an even a smaller number that makes use
of these forecasts
In meeting the objectives of the study the methodology to be followed is based on
knowledge communication. For that reason two types of questionnaires were drafted.
Open and closed questionnaires comprehensively review the knowledge,
understanding, interpretation of SCFs and in early warning services distribution
channels. These questionnaires were administered among the SCF producers and
intermediaries and results analysed.
Lastly the availability of useful SCFs knowledge has important implications for
agricultural production and food security. Reliable and accurate climate service, as
one of the elements of early warning services, will be discussed since they may be
used to improve agricultural practices such as crop diversification, time of planting
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and changes in cultivation practices. It was clear from the conclusions of the study
that critical elements of early warning services need to receive focused attention such
as the SCF knowledge feedback programme should be improved by both seasonal
climate producers and intermediaries, together with established structures through
which reliable, accurate and timely early warning services can be disseminated. Also
the relevant dissemination channels of SCFs are critical to the success of effective
implementation of early warning services including the educating and training of
farming communities.
The boundary organisation and early warning structures are important in effective
implementation of risk reduction measures within the agricultural sector and thus
need to be prioritised. Enhancing the understandability and interpretability of SCF
knowledge by intermediaries will assist in improving action needed to respond to
SCFs. Multiple media used by both SCF producers and intermediaries in
disseminating of SCFs should be accessible by all users and end-users. The
Government should ensure that farming communities are educated, trained and well
equipped to respond to risks from natural hazards.
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