Cette thèse a pour but de présenter le marché des paris sportifs plus précisément de montrer en quoi ce dernier constitue un cadre d'observations simplifié suffisamment proche des marchés boursiers pour tester la théorie de l'efficience informationnelle et aboutir à des conclusions unanimes concernant sa validité empirique. En premier lieu, nous concentrons notre attention sur la forme faible de l'efficience informationnelle et plus précisément sur une anomalie connue sous le nom du Favourite Longshot Bias, qui a été recensée aussi bien dans le cadre des paris sportifs que celui des marchés boursiers. A l'aide d’un vaste échantillon de données, nous démontrons que les coûts de transaction et les préférences des parieurs ont un impact significatif sur le niveau des cotes proposées par les bookmakers et donc sur la structure des prix. Par ailleurs, nous discutons de la rationalité des parieurs et nous montrons en quoi le comportement des parieurs n’est pas si différent de celui des investisseurs sur les marchés boursiers. En second lieu, nous analysons en détails la forme forte de l'efficience informationnelle et plus précisément la pertinence de la fourchette en tant qu'indicateur de délits d'initiés dans le cadre des paris sportifs. / The aim of this thesis is to introduce the sports betting market, and more precisely to show how this market forms a simplified framework for observations, close enough to stock markets to test the informational efficiency theory, and lead to unanimous conclusions about its empirical validity. Firstly, we focus on the weak form of informational efficiency and more particularly on an anomaly known as the Favourite Longshot Bias, which was listed in sports betting markets, as well as in stock markets. Thanks to a vast data sample, we prove that transaction costs and bettors’ preferences have a significant impact on odds fixed by bookmakers, and consequently on prices’ structure. Moreover, we also discuss bettors’ rationality and we show how bettors’ behaviour is not so different from that of investors in the stock markets. Secondly, we provide a detailed analysis of the strong form of informational efficiency and more precisely of the spread as an indicator of insider trading in the sports betting market.

Cette thèse a pour but de présenter le marché des paris sportifs plus précisément de montrer en quoi ce dernier constitue un cadre d'observations simplifié suffisamment proche des marchés boursiers pour tester la théorie de l'efficience informationnelle et aboutir à des conclusions unanimes concernant sa validité empirique. En premier lieu, nous concentrons notre attention sur la forme faible de l'efficience informationnelle et plus précisément sur une anomalie connue sous le nom du Favourite Longshot Bias, qui a été recensée aussi bien dans le cadre des paris sportifs que celui des marchés boursiers. A l'aide d'un vaste échantillon de données, nous démontrons que les coûts de transaction et les préférences des parieurs ont un impact significatif sur le niveau des cotes proposées par les bookmakers et donc sur la structure des prix. Par ailleurs, nous discutons de la rationalité des parieurs et nous montrons en quoi le comportement des parieurs n'est pas si différent de celui des investisseurs sur les marchés boursiers. En second lieu, nous analysons en détails la forme forte de l'efficience informationnelle et plus précisément la pertinence de la fourchette en tant qu'indicateur de délits d'initiés dans le cadre des paris sportifs.

The hypersonic laminar to turbulent transition problem above Mach 10 is addressed experimentally in the short duration VKI Longshot gun tunnel. Reentry conditions are partially duplicated in terms of Mach and Reynolds numbers. Pure nitrogen is used as a test gas with flow enthalpies sufficiently low to avoid its dissociation, thus approaching a perfect gas behavior. The stabilizing effects of Mach number and nosetip bluntness on the development of natural boundary layer disturbances are evaluated over a 7 degrees half-angle conical geometry without angle of attack. <p><p>Emphasis is initially placed on the flow characterization of the Longshot wind tunnel where these experiments are performed. Free-stream static pressure diagnostics are implemented in order to complete existing stagnation point pressure and heat flux measurements on a hemispherical probe. An alternative method used to determine accurate free-stream flow conditions is then derived following a rigorous theoretical approach coupled to the VKI Mutation thermo-chemical library. Resulting sensitivities of free-stream quantities to the experimental inputs are determined and the corresponding uncertainties are quantified and discussed. The benefits of this different approach are underlined, revealing the severe weaknesses of traditional methods based on the measurement of reservoir conditions and the following assumptions of an isentropic and adiabatic flow through the nozzle. The operational map of the Longshot wind tunnel is redefined accordingly. The practical limits associated with the onset of nitrogen flow condensation under non-equilibrium conditions are also accounted for. <p><p>Boundary layer transition experiments are then performed in this environment with free-stream Mach numbers ranging between 10-12. Instrumentation along the 800mm long conical model includes flush-mounted thermocouples and fast-response pressure sensors. Transition locations on sharp cones compare favorably with engineering correlations. A strong stabilizing effect of nosetip bluntness is reported and no transition reversal regime is observed for Re_RN<120000. Wavelet analysis of wall pressure traces denote the presence of inviscid instabilities belonging to Mack's second mode. An excellent agreement with Linear Stability Theory results is obtained from which the N-factor of the Longshot wind tunnel in these conditions is inferred. A novel Schlieren technique using a short duration laser light source is developed, allowing for high-quality flow visualization of the boundary layer disturbances. Comparisons of these measurement techniques between each other are finally reported, providing a detailed view of the transition process above Mach 10. / Doctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This dissertation consists of five articles about economics of sports. The first three articles investigate various types of outcome uncertainty and how they relate to match attendance demand, while the remaining two articles test the efficiency of sports betting markets. The first article presents a new method of calculating match importance. Unlike the previous approaches in the literature, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome. The second article shows that the additional playoff stage in the Czech ice hockey "Extraliga" lowers the probability of the strongest team becoming a champion and thus increases seasonal uncertainty. The third article demonstrates that the inconsistent findings in the literature about the link between match uncertainty and attendance could be explained by wrongly specified regressions, proposes a new approach to analyzing the effect of match uncertainty and shows that attendance demand is maximized if teams of the same quality play against each other. The fourth article examines the favorite-longshot bias in the context of betting on tennis matches. It shows that the favorite-longshot bias pattern is consistent with bookmakers protecting themselves against both better informed insiders and the general public exploiting new information. The fifth article investigates the supposedly profitable strategy of betting on soccer draws using the Fibonacci sequence. The strategy is tested both in a simulated market and on a real data set and found to lose money.