This diploma thesis analyses the market efficiency hypothesis of chosen currency pairs EUR/USD, EUR/CZK and USD/CZK. The aim of this study is to describe the price behaviour of chosen financial assets and verify the random walk hypothesis on the foreign exchange market. Model of random walk says there is no relationship between historical and future prices, so price changes are random and cannot be predicted. Random walk hypothesis was tested by chosen statistic tests runs test, test of auto-correlation, variance ratio test and unit root test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test). Data were collected through the online trading platform and tested in EViews. Period of testing for daily changes (D1) was chosen from 31.12.2009 to 29.12.2017 and for weekly changes (T1) from 2.1.2005 to 29.12.2017. This thesis proved weak-form efficiency of EUR/USD and USD/CZK for both daily changes and weekly changes in a chosen period. Inefficient behaviour of daily changes of EUR/CZK (D1) was indicated by runs test, test of autocorrelation and variance ratio test. There is a question what the cause of inefficiency is. The most likely explanation is currency intervention of the Czech National Bank which took place from April 2013 to April 2017 in order to achieve the inflation target and prevent deflation. Traders could also achieve profits by speculating on appreciation of Czech Crown below 27,-crowns/euro which is not in harmony with efficient-market hypothesis. Moreover, currency pair EUR/CZK is not liquid as major currency pairs and there are bigger transaction costs because of bid-offer spread. This work can contribute to next research in connection with results of this study. To verify if the cause of inefficient behaviour of daily price changes of EUR/USD are currency interventions of the Czech National Bank, I would suggest testing efficient-market hypothesis exactly at the time of interventions. It would be also suitable to compare results of different methodologies including testing in short-time intervals of price changes.

This diploma thesis aims at assessing stock market efficiency using seventeen shares and stock index S&P 500 which represents whole market. Selected shares were traded using several tools from technical analysis from 2012 to 2016. Trading is based on buy / sell signals. These signals were generated by 38 automatic trading strategies, created from crossing rates and sliding averages, by crossing two different sliding averages and based on technical indicators MACD, RSD and Momentum. Theoretical part of this work is dedicated to capital market, stock market efficiency assessment, shares and different types of analysis, mainly to technical. Results of stock market efficiency assessment of finances when trading all tested strategies can be found in the practical part. Random movements of rates were proven, this implies that market is slightly effective. Best trading strategy cannot be determined, because there are too many factors influencing results. Passive strategy achieved better profit. According to complete average results, MACD a 50+200EMA has highest success rate. Least appropriate strategies were MACD+SL and RSI_30+70_2. The worst shares for active trading were EBS and MRK, best LCI, ABC and VRX.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / This research undertakes to investigate both long-term and short-term investor overreaction on the JSE Limited (JSE) over the period from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2009. The period covers the restructuring and reform of the JSE in the early 2000s to the end of global financial market crisis in late 2008/2009, which can be regarded as a complete economic cycle. The performances of the winner and loser portfolios are evaluated by assessing their cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) over a 24-month holding period. The test results show no evidence of mean reversion for winner and loser portfolios formed based on prior returns of 12 months or less. However, test results show evidence of significant mean reversion for the winner and loser portfolios constructed based on their prior 24 months and 36 months returns. In addition, the study reveals that the mean reversion is more significant for longer-formation-period portfolios as well as for longer holding periods. The examination of the cumulative loser-winner spreads obtained from the contrarian portfolios based on the constituents’ prior 24 month and 36 month returns indicates that the contrarian returns increase for portfolios formed between 2004 and 2006, and declines thereafter towards the end of the examination period. The deterioration of contrarian returns coincides with the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 and the subsequent global financial crisis in 2008. This evidence suggests that the degree of mean reversion on the JSE is positively correlated to the South African business cycle.

Un marché efficient permet de définir le prix d’un bien, pour des quantités échangées, qui reflète la valeur donnée par les acteurs économiques. Cette valeur est objective dans la théorie classique, ou intrinsèque. Or, la valeur intrinsèque apparaît parfois déconnectée d’une valeur sociale. Il y a donc un problème de définition de la valeur, qui s’exprime notamment sur les marchés financiers. S'agissant de titres financiers, cette valeur est ce qui est mesuré subjectivement au travers d'une échelle de valeur dont la norme est donnée par le leader du marché. Ce leader est reconnu comme le vainqueur d'une lutte, appelée agôn, et se repère par une croissance de son cours (effet agonistique), une baisse des volumes échangés (effet d'allégeance) et un kurtosis élevé (effet mimétique). Nous pouvons alors proposer des aides à la décision pour l’investisseur à partir d’une théorie agonistique de la valeur. / An efficient market gives the right price of any product, with exchanged quantities, reflecting the value given by sellers and buyers. This value is defined as objective, or intrinsic in classical economic approach. This intrinsic value may be disconnected from a social value. It means there is a problem to define the value especially on financial markets. On those financial markets, value is what has to be measured, subjectively on a value scale given by the market leader. This leader is the winner of a fight, called agôn, and its stock price is growing (agonistic effect), the quantities of stocks exchanged are dropping (allegiance effect), with a high kurtosis (mimetic effect). We could propose to any investor some decision-making aid through an agonistic value theory.

Pengar har under en lång tid spelat en central roll i människans samhälle och dagens samhälle präglas av allt mer handel. Utifrån detta har nya betalningsmetoder utvecklats. En förändring i konsumentbeteendet har bidragit till att allt fler individer väljer elektroniska betalningstjänster. En relativt ny innovation är kryptovalutan bitcoin som erbjuder betalning mellan köpare och säljare utan inblandning av en tredje part. Ett flertal studier har gjorts med syftet att fastställa om bitcoin är en valuta eller en tillgång, något som visat sig vara svårt. Något som varit tydligare är att bitcoins värdeförändringar inte tycks vara korrelerad med andra investeringsalternativ. I en studie av Brière et al. (2015) drogs slutsatsen att bitcoin är en intressant tillgång för en investerare tack vare bitcoins låga korrelationskoefficient med andra tillgångar. Denna studie grundar sig i de teoretiska utgångspunkterna om Famas (1970) hypotes om den effektiva marknaden, Markowitz (1952) moderna portföljteori och Rogers (2003) teori om spridning av innovationer. Med detta som utgångspunkt är syftet med denna studie att undersöka hur korrelationskoefficienten mellan bitcoin och traditionella investeringstillgångar som aktier, valutor och råvaror ser ut idag samt hur dessa har förändrats över tid. Med hjälp av Famas (1970) teori om effektiva marknader och Rogers (2003) teori om spridning av innovationer kommer en diskussion om huruvida bitcoins egenskaper som investering i den moderna portföljen har förändrats i takt med att bitcoin blivit mer använd, både som betalningsmedel och investeringsalternativ. För att besvara dessa frågor undersöks korrelationskoefficienterna mellan bitcoin och elva andra tillgångar i kombination med en analys av en deskriptiv statistik. Med en undersökningsperiod som sträcker sig från 18 augusti 2011 till 17 mars 2017. Denna period har även delats upp i mindre tidsperioder för att utifrån detta analysera om det skett några förändringar i korrelationen mellan bitcoin och de traditionella tillgångarna i studien. Resultatet visade att bitcoin inte är korrelerad med andra traditionella tillgångar, oavsett vilken tidsperiod som undersöks. Det visade sig att bitcoin i förhållande till andra tillgångar är en riskfylld investering på grund av bland annat en hög volatilitet. Dock kompenseras detta av bitcoins höga årlig avkastning. Av resultatet framgår det även att volatiliteten för bitcoin har minskat med tiden och att kryptovalutan inte är lika riskfylld idag jämfört med tidigare.

This study examined the impact of open-market stock repurchases by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) on the share price of the featured company. Two aspects of investment finance are rational behaviour and efficient markets. Both of these concepts were explored to understand why a share repurchase would have an impact on a company share price.Causal research was conducted to analyse the correlation between a share repurchase event and the share price of the featured company. The share buyback announcements were collected from the Bloomberg database. The holding period returns were calculated and compared to zero to analyse whether there was any momentum or contrarian signals. The holding period returns were also adjusted for the average of the all REIT index to ascertain whether the returns were abnormal or not.The results have shown share repurchase transactions to be contrarian indicators of share price performance. Even when the results were adjusted for the REIT index, the negative returns continued. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

The Halloween effect refers to higher stock returns during the period November to April compared to May to October. This is a well-known calendar anomaly that has gained a lot of attention due to the fact that the effect is persistent in the market in spite of the fact that investors are aware of the anomaly today. This evokes questions regarding the efficiency in the markets and the Efficient Market Hypothesis in particular. The main focus of this thesis was to investigate whether the Halloween effect still exists in the Swedish stock market and if the power of the effect deviates between different firm sizes. Furthermore, we examined risk differences between the summer -and the winter months, as well as the January effect in order to find out if these could be possible explanations for the Halloween effect and its existence. A trading strategy based on the Halloween effect was also tested in order to see if investors could use this strategy to outperform a buy and hold strategy. The method that was used to investigate the existence of the Halloween effect was Ordinary Least Squares regression models with dummy variables, standard deviation to ascertain risk-differences between the periods and the Sharpe ratio to determine the risk-adjusted returns of the trading strategies. The results showed that the Halloween effect could be found in all of the examined market-cap indices, and therefore the Efficient Market Hypothesis could be questioned. The Halloween effect turned out to be autonomous from the January effect and the risk measured in standard deviation had no significant difference between the summer -and the winter months, hence, both these possible explanations were rejected. The backtesting showed that the Halloween strategy would perform better than the buy and hold strategy in all indices except from the mid-cap index. The results regarding the Sharpe ratio indicated that the Halloween strategy would be a better strategy to use considering risk-adjusted returns as the Sharpe ratio was higher in all indices.

Over a long period of time, researchers have investigated the efficiency of financial markets. The widely accepted theory of the subject is the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which states that prices of financial assets are set efficiently. A common way to test this hypothesis is to analyze the returns generated by technical trading rules which uses historical prices in an attempt to predict future price development. This is also what this study aims to do. Using adjusted daily closing prices ranging over 2007 to 2019 for 5120 stocks listed on the U.S stock market, this study tests a momentum trading strategy called the stochastic oscillator in an attempt to beat a buy and hold strategy of the Russel 3000 stock market index. The stochastic oscillator is constructed in three different ways, the Fast%K, the Fast%D and the Slow%D, the difference being that a smoothing parameter is used in the Fast%D and Slow%D in an attempt to reduce the number of whiplashes or false trading signals. The mean returns of the technical trading strategies are tested against the mean returns of the buy and hold strategy using a non-parametric bootstrap methodology and also, the risk adjusted returns in terms of Sharpe Ratios are compared for the different strategies. The results find no significance difference between the mean returns of the buy and hold strategy and any of the technical trading strategies. Further, the buy and hold strategy delivers a higher risk adjusted return compared to the technical trading strategies, although, only by a small margin. Regarding the smoothing parameter applied to the strategies, it seems to fulfill its purpose by reducing the number of trades and slightly increasing the mean returns of the technical trading strategies. Finally, for deeper insight in the subject, a reading of "The efficiency of financial markets: A dual momentum trading strategy on the Swedish stock market" by Netzén Örn (2018) is recommended.

Masters of Science / In 1976 Rozeff and Kinney found that seasonality exists in the monthly rates of return on the New York Stock Exchange with peak periods in January. By making use of this information and the fact that the rates of return lag real activity by one month, Chang en Pinegar (1986) indicated that rates of return unidirectionally predict future growth rates in industrial production for large companies. They also found that the seasonal growth rates in industrial production partially reflect the January seasonals in the rates of return for small companies. This is inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Altough numerous studies in South Africa have been conducted on the efficiency of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, no one has departed from the viewpoint of seasonality. The aim of this study is to investigate the efficiency of the Johannesburg stock Exchange with respect to seasonality in industrial production. It will be shown that there is no relationship between rates of return and real activity in the majority of sectors. The clothing sector is inefficient in the sense that real activity unidirectionally predicts rates of return three months in advance. At a six months lag period there are strong relationships, in both ways, between rates of return and real activity for this sector, that also implies inefficiency. Lastly it will be indicated that the November peaks on the Johannesburg stock Exchange do not coincide with the January peaks found overseas and that they do not lag real activity by one month. In the international research the attention was mainly focussed on the size of companies and stock price sensitivity to changes in industrial production while in this paper it focusses on different sectors.

Magister Commercii - MCom / This research attempts to discover whether the Adaptive Market Hypothesis theory is applicable in the South African financial market and explores the innovation and cyclical profitability implications of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis theory. This is achieved in two parts: first by determining if returns follow a random walk or not and second by analysing the consistency of technical and fundamental factors to explain the cross-section of equity returns between 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2017. The tests of stock return dependency include a total of five tests on the average monthly returns for each stock in the ALSI covering normality and random walk theory for the duration of the two sub-periods and entire examination period.