A prediction market is a special type of market which offers trades for securities associated with future states that are observable at a certain time in the future. Recently, prediction markets have shown the promise of being an abstract framework for designing distributed, scalable and self-incentivized machine learning systems which could then apply to large scale problems. However, existing designs of prediction markets are far from achieving such machine learning goal, due to (1) the limited belief modelling power and also (2) an inadequate understanding of the market dynamics. This work is thus motivated by improving and extending current prediction market design in both aspects. This research is focused on potential based prediction markets, that is, prediction markets that are administered by potential (or cost function) based market makers (PMM). To improve the market’s modelling power, we first propose the partially-observable potential based market maker (PoPMM), which generalizes the standard PMM such that it allows securities to be defined and evaluated on future states that are only partially-observable, while also maintaining the key properties of the standard PMM. Next, we complete and extend the theory of generalized exponential families (GEFs), and use GEFs to free the belief models encoded in the PMM/PoPMM from always being in exponential families. To have a better understanding of the market dynamics and its link to model learning, we discuss the market equilibrium and convergence in two main settings: convergence driven by traders, and convergence driven by the market maker. In the former case, we show that a market-wise objective will emerge from the traders’ personal objectives and will be optimized through traders’ selfish behaviours in trading. We then draw intimate links between the convergence result to popular algorithms in convex optimization and machine learning. In the latter case, we augment the PMM with an extra belief model and a bid-ask spread, and model the market dynamics as an optimal control problem. This convergence result requires no specific models on traders, and is suitable for understanding the markets involving less controllable traders.

THE STIGLER-LUCKOCK MODEL FOR A LIMIT ORDER BOOK Abstract One of the types of modern-day markets are so-called order-driven markets whose core component is a database of all incoming buy and sell orders (order book). The main goal of this thesis is to extend the Stigler-Luckock model for order books to give a better insight into the price forming process and behaviour of the market participants themselves. The model introduced in this thesis focuses on a comparison of behaviour and various strategies of market makers who are sophisticated market participants profiting from extensive trading. The market is described using Markov chains, and the strategies are compared using Monte Carlo simulations and game theory. The results showed that market makers' orders should have small spread and large volumes. The final model compares two strategies in which market makers monitor their portfolio. In case of having more cash than asset (or vice versa), they shift prices of their orders to equalise the portfolio. The model recommends checking the market quite often, but acting conservatively, which means not changing prices that frequently and not jumping to conclusions just from a small imbalance in the portfolio.

This thesis is among the first market microstructure studies of an index futures market with designated market makers in the academic literature. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate intraday patterns of key variables, the relative size of the components of the quoted bid-ask spread, and the order decisions of uninformed traders, in a continuous dealer market for index futures with market makers. Overall, our findings aim to contribute to a better understanding of the roles of market makers and public customers in price formation. Intraday patterns of financial market variables such as trade price, volume, trade size, quoted spreads, depth, and volatility separately for designated market makers and public customers are examined. The lack of relevant and appropriate data in futures markets, as evidenced by Hasbrouck (2003) and Kurov (2005), has inhibited the growth of market microstructure in futures markets. Individual orders, quotes, trader identification, and transactions from June 2003 to December 2004, for FTSEurofirst 80 and 100 index futures are used in the study. Inclusion of the parties to order execution distinguishes this data set from most other futures microstructure sources. As this thesis is the first known academic study of the extant market microstructure of the FTSEurofirst index futures, the institutional aspects of the trading process for the FTSEurofirst index futures are also explored. An alternative method for estimating three cost components as a proportion of the bid-ask spread is developed. A framework is developed for the order decision process of an uninformed trader for the first time in a futures market with market makers. The results of this thesis may have implications for other financial markets and the field of market microstructure.

我國金融市場積極發展多元化與國際化，將由台灣期貨交易所推出臺指選擇權，建立選擇權市場以完備金融市場。由於選擇權市場掛牌交易契約眾多與選擇權的交易特性，因此有賴造市者發揮提供流動性、風險移轉、價格效率性及價格資訊揭露等經濟功能。本研究以造市者之功能性逐項比較我國造市者制度與EUREX、SEHK、LIFFE等各大交易所造市者制度之差異，用以發現我國首度引進的造市者制度對於選擇權市場發展的影響。 本研究為瞭解選擇權造市者營運的知識與技術，整理造市者作業循環的流程，針對造市者業務進行分工，建立起造市風險分析架構。推導得出造市風險包含造市交易風險與部位管理風險，呈現出市場波性風險、報價及交易策略風險、造市交易之市場機制風險、市場行情變動風險、遇險交易策略風險、部位管理之市場機制風險及財務與作業風險等七大類的造市風險。 本研究亦提出對於我國選擇權市場未來發展方向的關切，以及建議重視造市者利基與市場運作之關係，並提出未來與造市者相關之研究建議。 / Taiwan's financial market has been developing constructively into a globalization and multiplicity market within these years. To create a more completed financial market, Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) will issue "the Taiwan stock index option" recently. As the complex and various features of the options trading, the option market will be successful and efficient through the market maker's economic functions, which are adding liquidity, increasing price efficiency, transferring risk and proving price information. This survey tried to compare the different functions of market maker system with TAIFEX, EUREX, SEHK and LEFFE, and to disclose the influence of the new market maker system on Taiwan's option market. This exposure takes great interest in market maker's knowledge and technology. By summarizing and classifying the operation process cycle flow of market maker, this research further organizes an analytic structure in market maker's risks. Including the market making risks and the positions management risks, the discussion demonstrates the market change risk, pricing strategy risk, limitary quoting risk, market volatility risk, hedging risk, mechanism risk, and finance and operation risk. The consequent also furnishes the concerns about the future development of Taiwan option market, emphasizing the importance of the relationship between market makers and market' benefit, and the suggestions to the further research.

我國興櫃股票之交易方式係由推薦證券商（即興櫃股票之造市商）之報價主導交易進行，屬於報價驅動（Quote-driven）之交易方式，與我國上櫃股票採取「等價交易」及上市股票採取「競價交易」等均屬委託單驅動（Order-driven）之交易方式迥然不同。 按我國證券交易法第155條第2項準用同條第1項規定之適用結果，「於證券商營業處所買賣有價證券」者，仍應有第1項所揭反市場操縱條款之適用。惟有關興櫃股票交易在成交對象之選擇、成交順序、成交價格決定，乃至於成交後之給付結算作業方式等，均與我國現行上市（櫃）股票之交易及交割方式具有明顯之差異，致應如何適用證券交易法反市場操縱條款之規定，乃成疑義。 本文鑒於興櫃股票市場規模已呈穩定成長之勢，不難想像興櫃股票交易與市場操縱行為之間終將有擦出爭議火花之時，故以比較法學研究之觀點，歸納並分析興櫃股票與上市（櫃）股票交易方式之差異及其癥結所在。另蒐集瀏覽世界各國主要證券市場之交易規制，包括美國OTCBB市場、歐陸Alternext市場及英國AIM市場，分析其他採用報價驅動交易模式之先進市場當中有關造市商義務之規範，以掌握造市商義務之核心意涵。進而以造市商義務範圍及報價驅動市場之交易特徵為基礎，逐一檢測興櫃股票適用我國證券交易法所揭「違約不交割」、「相對委託」、「連續交易」、「沖洗買賣」、「散布流言或不實資料」及「其他直接或間接操縱市場」等各款反市場操縱條款規定可能引發之爭議，並提出本文意見。 / The trading mechanism of Taiwan Emerging Stock is based on quote-driven model, which is very different from the order-driven model of the Taiwan OTC securities market and Taiwan Stock Exchange market. By the Taiwan Securities and Exchange Act Article 155 paragraph 2 permitted that paragraph 1, the anti-market manipulation provisions, shall apply mutatis mutandis to securities transactions conducted on the over-the-counter markets. However, lots of Taiwan Emerging stock trading rules such as allowing the participants to choose their counterparty, the matching sequence rules, the price decision rules, and even the rules of payment and settlement practices after transaction, all have significantly differences between those of Taiwan Emerging stock market and listed stock market. Therefore, how should Taiwan Emerging stock apply to the Securities Exchange Act under the terms of the anti-market manipulation is into doubt. Taiwan Emerging stock market has shown a steady growth trend, hence, it is easy to imagine that Taiwan Emerging stock trading and market manipulation issues will eventually rise to controversy. This thesis is to study from the point of view of comparative law, by means of analyzing the emerging stock markets of the advanced countries, including the U.S. OTCBB market, the European Alternext market and the UK AIM market, to conclude the crux of the difference between the quote-driven and order-driven market models. Then, to understand the characteristics and core obligation of the market maker under quote-driven market model, furthermore, to detect the disputes may lead for adapting the anti-manipulation provisions to Taiwan Emerging stock, including the terms of "breach of contract non-deliverable", "improper matched orders ", "continuous trading", "wash sale", "spreading rumors or false information" and other direct or indirect behavior of manipulation". And this thesis proposed its discovery at the end.