This research project explores the rise of Chinese cross-border finance. Cross-border investment programmes have been at the heart of China's financial liberalisation. Yet, we know little about what drives the expansion of these new market entry channels and the effects they have on global finance. This thesis explores the role that formal and informal institutions play in China's financial system, by addressing three main research goals: (1) to rethink analytical frameworks of global financial networks, by shifting the focus to channels of state power; (2) to investigate how such formal institutions shape competitive hierarchies in financial markets, both inside and outside of China; (3) to demonstrate that informal institutions such as a common cultural identity are equally important to explain behaviour and outcomes in Chinese cross-border finance. The thesis pursues this agenda through four substantive papers, each with its own subset of research goals and findings. The papers follow a three-fold structure. The thesis begins with an analytical focus on agents (micro-level), by examining the evolution of state-firm relations in Chinese cross-border finance. The first paper develops a politically sensitive framework of global financial networks, which conceptualises how bargaining dynamics within China's party-state shape competitive hierarchies in Chinese capital markets. Drawing on these theoretical insights, the second paper breaks new empirical ground, by explaining the asymmetrical nature of market access criteria for foreign investors. The third paper zooms out on the global consequences that Chinese state control has for money centres (macro-level). It sheds light on how state-firm relations shaped London's development as the first Western offshore trading centre for Chinese currency. The fourth paper shifts the attention to the role of informal social institutions in Chinese equity markets. It presents the first empirical study of how a common cultural identity with Mainland China governs the behaviour of different investor categories (group-level). The thesis distils the following findings: Bargaining conflicts inside the Chinese party-state have a decisive impact on competitive outcomes and behaviour in Chinese cross-border finance, both domestically and globally. Strategic state interests form an interdependent relationship with the resources supplied by foreign investors and domestic corporate players. Domestically, these resource interdependencies explain the asymmetrical nature of market access under China's cross-border investment schemes. Globally, the shift in state-firm bargaining dynamics from strategic alignment to an increasing bifurcation of interests explains the patchy integration of RMB finance into London's financial architectures. Informal social institutions equally shape competitive outcomes in China's capital markets. Whilst the literature identifies shared cultural identity as a source of local information advantage, this thesis finds the opposite: A common cultural background with national Chinese investors reduces information asymmetries for foreign investors but it does not equate to local information advantages. Overall, the four substantive papers add up to a multifaceted yet integrated perspective on the drivers, dynamics and consequences of Chinese cross-border finance. They clarify that the intersection of formal state governance and informal social forces is essential for understanding how the spread of neoliberal market forces unfolds across Chinese capital markets. This thesis thus affirms that space and place remain central to our understanding of financial market outcomes.

Après avoir montré l’existence d’un impact inflationniste des biocarburants de première génération sur les prix agricoles via un renforcement du lien entre les prix agricoles et du pétrole, nous soulignons l’absence d’un réel effet positif de leur expansion sur les économies émergentes et en développement. De plus, la hausse des prix agricoles a contraint certains pays importateurs de ces produits agricoles à mettre en place des politiques de protection de leurs marchés domestiques. Ces résultats prouve qu’il s’avère impératif de développer une production de biocarburants ne nécessitant pas de matières premières à visée alimentaire. Or, nous mettons en évidence la préférence de la population française pour ces biocarburants de deuxième génération, d’autant plus pour une production issue de résidus agricoles. Enfin, nous établissons – en prenant l’exemple d’un marché américain – que la mise en place de marchés dérivés des biocarburants en Europe pourrait permettre aux industriels de se protéger efficacement face à la volatilité des prix. / Having shown the existence of an inflationary impact of first-generation biofuels on agricultural prices through a stronger link between agricultural and oil prices, we highlight the lack of a real positive effect of their expansion on the emerging and developing economies. In addition, the rise in agricultural prices has required some importing countries of these agricultural products to implement policy measures to protect their domestic markets. These results prove that it is imperative to develop a production of biofuels that do not use food crops. However, we highlight the preference of the French population for these second-generation biofuels, especially for a production based on agricultural residuals. Finally, we establish – using the example of the US market of ethanol – that the establishment of biofuel derivatives markets in Europe could enable industrials to protect themselves efficiently against price volatility.

A sinalização, formação e descoberta de preços agrícolas são adequadas se refletem rapidamente todas as informações recebidas pelos seus participantes. Então, quando o mercado é eficiente, possibilita eficiência alocativa, redução de imprecisão nas decisões dos agentes e dos custos informacionais. Entretanto, os agentes do agronegócio podem tomar decisões errôneas de produção, comercialização e estocagem, sujeitas ao conjunto de informações incompletas contidas nos preços passados, se os mercados forem não eficientes. Nesse contexto, o objetivo geral foi analisar a eficiência dos mercados futuros de commodities. Para atingi-lo, estruturou-se esta pesquisa em três ensaios. No primeiro, objetivou-se testar a hipótese de passeio aleatório a contratos futuros agropecuários negociados na BM&FBOVESPA. Refutá-la significa possível previsibilidade e, por conseguinte, os mercados não seriam fracamente eficientes. Correlações seriais e testes de razão de variância foram utilizados para verificá-las. Os resultados deram suporte à hipótese de passeio aleatório nos mercados futuros de café e da soja, eficientes na forma fraca, e evidências contrárias foram encontradas nos mercados do boi gordo, milho e etanol. No segundo, o objetivo foi investigar a eficiência e formações de clusters nos contratos futuros do complexo soja (soja, farelo de soja e óleo de soja) negociados nas bolsas de commodities: argentina, brasileira, chinesa, indiana, japonesa, norte-americana e sul-africana. Com base na métrica obtida por distância euclidiana de razões de variância, evidenciaram-se dependências similares dos mercados, as quais podem ser interpretadas como efeito espraiamento da eficiência informacional. Os agentes devem, portanto, manter percepções em relação aos diversos mercados devido às sinalizações interdependentes dos preços. No terceiro, objetivou-se analisar a eficiência dos mercados futuros agropecuários brasileiros, sob a hipótese adaptativa de mercado. Utilizando propostas recentes à não linearidade e razão de variância, encontrou-se que as elevadas rejeições à hipótese de diferença martingal se encontram nos mercados em que as intervenções governamentais se fazem presentes: milho e etanol. Nos mercados de café, boi gordo e soja ocorreram menores rejeições à hipótese martingal e, portanto, houve maior eficiência informacional. Essas evidências--consistentes com a hipótese adaptativa dos mercados--justificam operações de hedge dinâmicas, bem como a gerência de carteiras de investimentos de forma ativa. / Agricultural prices\' formation, discovery and signalling only are accurate when they can rapidly reflect all new information faced by its market agents. Thereby, when a given market is efficient, it allows for allocative efficiency, reducing inefficiencies both in decision-making process and in informational costs. On the other hand, when markets are said not to be efficient, agribusinesses\' agents can make mistaken production, marketing and storage decisions, once such decisions are due to incomplete information contained in past prices. In this context, the main purpose of this study is to analyze the efficiency in future markets of commodities. In order to achieve its final goal, the study has been structured in three essays. In the first essay, the random walk hypothesis has been tested for agricultural future contracts from Brazilian Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange (BMF&BOVESPA). Refusing the hypothesis for a given commodity implies some degree of predictability, therefore inconsistent even with a weak notion of efficiency. These tests were carried out using serial correlations and variance ratios. The results show the presence of random walks in coffee and soybean future markets, and contrary evidences (absence of random walks) in live cattle, corn and ethanol future markets. In the second essay, it has been analyzed the efficiency and the presence of clusters in the soybean complex future contracts (soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil) traded in the following future markets: Argentina (MTB), Brazil (BVMF), China (DCE), India (NCD), Japan (TKT), US (CBT) and South-Africa (SAF). Based on the metrics obtained by Euclidian distances of variance ratios, similar dependencies have been found for all markets, which suggest informational efficiency spreading. Agents, therefore, shall maintain perceptions over several international markets, given the interdependence found for prices in distinct future markets. In the third one, the adaptive market hypothesis has been tested for agricultural future markets in Brazil. Applying more recent approaches to Nonlinearity and Variance Ratio tests, high rejections to martingale difference hypothesis took place in agricultural markets which governmental interference is highly persistent, i.e., corn and ethanol. In coffee, live cattle and soybeans markets, weaker rejections to the martingale hypothesis hint higher informational efficiency. These evidences, consistent with the adaptive market hypothesis, justify dynamic hedge operations, as well as an active management of investment portfolios in such markets.

O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a evolução, principalmente nas últimas três décadas, e a configuração atual da indústria siderúrgica no Brasil sob a ótica do paradigma estrutura-conduta-desempenho (ECD), desenvolvido por Joe Bain, e das teorias de estrutura de mercado (em especial das teorias de submercados e de rotas tecnológicas) de John Sutton (1991 e 1998). Pretende-se elucidar as seguintes indagações: o por quê das usinas integradas se manterem no Brasil frente à ascensão das aciarias elétricas (mini-mills) que ocorre no cenário mundial? Qual é a evolução tecnológica dessa indústria e seus impactos sobre sua estrutura? E, por fim, quais são as razões para o uso tanto de carvão vegetal quanto de carvão mineral na produção de aço bruto em grande escala no Brasil, mas não em outros países? Os dois arcabouços teóricos considerados auxiliam na explicação de na indústria siderúrgica do Brasil haver dois submercados independentes que se diferenciam por suas rotas tecnológicas (usinas integradas versus usinas semi-integradas) e por sua classe de produtos (aços planos versus aços longos). Sob a ótica da teoria de Sutton (1998) ainda é possível fazer algumas inferências quanto à tomada de decisão em nível da empresa, a qual se depara com duas estratégias distintas: a de escalada e a de proliferação. A primeira diz respeito ao montante ao ser investido em P&D e a segunda se refere em quantas trajetórias e diferentes grupos de produtos a empresa irá atuar. Diante dessa segmentação da indústria buscou-se, a partir de análise econométrica, considerando os anos de 1996 a 2009, fundamentar as premissas de que tais submercados (aços longos versus planos) têm dinâmicas distintas nas relações entre concentração e investimentos, sendo possível identificar relação causal positiva entre investimentos em tecnologia e concentração na produção, principalmente no submercado produtor de aços longos, ou seja, à medida que aumentam os investimentos em tecnologia, a indústria tem sua estrutura alterada, passando a integrar suas rotas tecnológicas e, consequentemente, elevando a concentração do mercado. Já no submercado de aços planos, fica ilustrada a maturidade deste segmento da indústria siderúrgica no Brasil, com a concentração sendo marginalmente reduzida diante de variações no tamanho do mercado e nos investimentos. Além disso, os resultados econométricos mostram que, em ambos os submercados analisados (aço planos e longos), o papel do BNDES não foi fundamental em afetar a concentração no período de 1996 a 2009, apesar de ter tido esse papel em anos anteriores. / The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the evolution of the steel industry, mainly in the last three decades, and its recent configuration in Brazil under structureconduct- performance paradigm and Sutton\'s theories. It is aimed to answer some questions, such as: why the integrated mills still exist in Brazil as the mini-mills are surging in the world scenario; what is this industry technology evolution and how does it affect the industry structure? And so far, which are the main reasons to the existing of steel mills based on charcoal and coal at the same time, rather than in other countries? The two theoretical frameworks interact in the explanation of the existing of two independent submarkets in the steel industry in Brazil that are distinguished by their technological trajectories (integrated versus mini-mills) and by their list of products (flat versus long steel). From the Sutton\'s theory perspective, it is still possible to highlight some topics related to the firm decisionmaking level, which is faced with two distinct strategies: the escalation and the proliferation parameters. The first is related to the amount to be invested in R&D and the later refers to how many trajectories and groups the company will operate. Based on econometric analysis, in the time period from 1996 to 2009, are valid the assumptions that these submarkets have different dynamics in the relationship between concentration and investments. Also it is possible to identify positive causal effects concerning technology investments and industry concentration mainly on the long steel submarket, reflecting that as investments are increased, the industry structure is amended to integrate their technology trajectories and thus increasing industry concentration. About flat steel submarket it is showed the maturity of this segment as the concentration is marginally reduced in response to variations in market size and investment. Furthermore, in both submarkets (flat and long steel) it is evident that the BNDES\'s role was not crucial in affecting the concentration in the time period from 1996 to 2009, despite having had this role in previous years.

M.Com. (Financial Management) / This paper studies the effects of bull and bear market states on the profitability of a momentum investment strategy. That is, a strategy that buys past winners and sells past losers is simulated over the period 3 July 2002 to 8 August 2012 and its profitability is reviewed in light of bull and bear sub-periods. Such an investment strategy has been shown to yield abnormal returns in several markets around the world, including the South African stock market. By doing so, these studies challenge the efficient market hypothesis, a central and widely accepted hypothesis within traditional portfolio theory. There are many theories that have been used to explain why abnormal profits are achievable using a momentum investment strategy. By determining the effects of bull and bear market states on the profitability of a momentum investment strategy, this paper provides some insight into which theories, if any, are most relevant to the South African stock market context. It is found that on average, a momentum portfolio yields abnormal returns over the full sample period, with the chief driver of these returns being the winner component of the portfolio. When broken into bull and bear sub-periods, it was found that a momentum investment strategy only yields abnormal returns during a bull period, whilst these abnormal returns became negative during a bear period. These results are consistent with one efficient market hypothesis explanation and two behavioral models presented in past studies. The results indicate that the market may be efficient and that changes in macroeconomic risk are the cause of momentum profits. However, insofar as the macroeconomic risk explanation is inaccurate, these results support the behavioural models of Daniel, Hirshleifer, and Subrahmanyam (1998); and Hong and Stein (1999). Both these models predict that momentum returns will be strongest during bull periods.

This report aims to make a comparison between the Swedish and Spanish electricity market, the design of new improvements that could achieve a better operation for both markets as well as the price forecasting for both spot markets. These enhancements are oriented to decrease electricity prices, energy use and the system CO2 emissions. Also, the main organizations of the market and their roles has been characterized, clarifying the functions of the Market Operator and the System Operator. In addition, the different markets, the trading products and the price formation have been explained and the picture of the market structure has been achieved with enough depth. Moreover, some of the most used methods in Time Series Analysis has been enumerated to understand which techniques are needed for forecast the electricity prices and the methodology used (Box-Jenkins Method) has been explained in detail. Later, all these methods have been implemented in an own code developed in Python 3.6 (TSAFTools .py) with the help of different statistics libraries mentioned during the method chapter. On the other hand, the description of the market situation has been carried out for both countries. Power installed capacity, electricity generation, average prices, main renewable technologies and policies to increase the renewable energy share has been analysed and corresponding described. Then, to estimate the market’s future spot electricity prices, ARIMA models have been selected to analyse the evolution of the day-ahead price using the TSAFTools.py. The final models show a proper performance in the two markets, especially in the Nordpool, achieving an RMSE: 37.68 and MAPE: 7.75 for the year in 2017 in Nordpool and a RMSE: 270.08 and MAPE: 20.24 in OMIE for 2017. Nordpool spot prices from 2015 to 2016 has been analysed too but obtaining a result not as good as the year 2017 with an RMSE: 49.01 and MAPE: 21.42. After this analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of both markets are presented and the main problems of the Spanish electricity system (power overcapacity, fuel dependency, non-cost-efficient renewable energies policies, lack of interconnexion capacity etc.) and the Swedish electricity system (dependency for nuclear power, uncertainty for solar electricity Generation) are presented. Finally, due to the quick development of the energy sector in the last years and the concern of the European Committee to reach a new design for the electricity market, different kinds of recommendations for the future have been considered.

The electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) grid is undergoing a paradigm shift as renewable generation explodes while flexible, storage-like loads are being massively adopted. We address the intermittency and volatility issues of renewable resources in connection with spatiotemporal distribution location-specific marginal-cost-based prices (DLMPs) that guide flexible loads to utilize their significant degrees of freedom for the purpose of providing valuable storage-like services to the grid including demand response, energy charge/discharge arbitrage and regulation reserve services. Dynamic DLMPs can induce socially optimal energy and reserve schedules to be adopted by flexible load. To this end, existing transmission wholesale markets must be extended to include distribution network connected participants. Since the inclusion of the complex preferences of many flexible loads renders familiar centralized transmission market designs intractable, we propose and investigate tractable decentralized market designs with Electric Vehicle (EV) battery charging selected as the representative flexible load. We address the equilibrium existence, uniqueness, and efficiency issues that arise with decentralized market designs, using game theory techniques. We investigate various multi-hour and multi-commodity (energy and reserves) market designs including EV self-scheduling under distribution network information aware/unaware conditions, and single or multiple load aggregator(s) scheduling groups of EVs. We investigate the role of network related information in enabling partially price anticipating EVs to acquire market power and self-schedule to achieve individual benefits at the expense of social welfare. Our contribution is the proof of existence and uniqueness of decentralized market equilibria, as well as analytical and numerical comparative analysis. Secondly, we depart from the usual ideal battery assumption, employing instead a realistic two bucket model. We then develop a novel Markovian Decision Process (MDP) application to estimate the regulation tracking cost incurred over an hour by an EV charger employing an optimal controller to respond to the regulation signal which is reset every two seconds by the system operator. The hourly tracking error increases when the EV promises higher regulation reserves while at the same time demanding an achievable albeit high average charging rate. We solve the MDP repeatedly, in fact off line, to capture the impact of the average charging rate and the regulation reserves promised at the beginning of an hour to the resulting hourly regulation tracking error. We then estimate a convex closed form relationship mapping hourly charging rate and regulation reserve offerings to the expected hourly tracking error cost. These convex tracking cost functions provide crucial input to the day ahead hourly energy bids and regulation reserve offers made by individual EVs to the Day Ahead market in response to spatiotemporal DLMPs.

Vale, a Brazilian-based, multinational mining company is used as a case study to investigate the impact of institutions on company strategy in dynamic markets. The research focuses on Vale’s exploration and development of the coal deposits of Mozambique, a country in which the institutional environment was decimated by war between 1964 and 1992.The objective of the research is to investigate how using the theory of institutions, as articulated in international business and corporate strategy literature, could be useful in understanding how firms make strategic choices and seek to gain competitive advantage in dynamic markets. In addition, the research provides a case study based in an African market, which will add to the material available for teaching general management principles in dynamic markets.The research demonstrates the importance of the link between Brazil’s foreign policy between 2000 and 2010, and Vale’s expansion strategies in Africa at that time. It highlights the institutional deficiencies in Mozambique at the time of Vale’s entrance, such as the limited rail infrastructure and weakly developed mineral rights legislation; and shows how Vale has been able to turn these deficiencies into competitive advantage, and has developed a dominant position in an internationally significant coalfield.In this way, the research supports the “institutional-view” of strategy, as articulated by Peng, Wang and Jiang (2008) and positions the role of institutions as being at least as important as industry and company resource factors in determining company strategy in dynamic markets.The challenge presented to readers of the case is to describe the institutional landscape in Mozambique and assess Vale’s response to it, using Khanna, Palepu and Sinha’s (2005) framework; to assess the merit of Peng et al.’s (2008) “strategy-tripod” when considering dynamic market strategy; and to consider the economic, political and social context facing Vale in trying to maintain and grow their competitive position. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

The world has grown increasingly globalized and competitive which has made it crucial for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to look beyond their native market in order to thrive. Although internationalization is considered somewhat uncertain in the face of corporate unfamiliar environments, non-internationalization in a globalized economy can be an even more risky task because it can cause the company to lose competitiveness. The business environment of the world is changing from time to time and in recent times there have been several market turbulences. Market turbulence increases the ambiguity and risk of a company's business process, and it is important to maintain a link between corporate strategies and changes in the environment due to turbulence. The main purpose of conducting this study is to examine the internationalization process of SMEs operating in Sri Lanka and Sweden and the impact of recent market turbulence on those enterprises. The study will also discuss how those businesses have sought to manage these turbulent situations. This study, which aims to learn through multiple cases, focuses primarily on Sri Lankan and Swedish businesses engaged in the manufacturing sector. The study's theoretical framework is structured in such a way that it incorporates the theories contained in the internationalization process theory and the market turbulence. The theories applied to the study in the analysis of empirical findings are compared and the analysis and conclusion are made as a result of the study. The study concludes by comparing the recent market turbulence experienced by the Swedish and Sri Lankan SMEs. The study identified that this turbulence had a major impact on SMEs operating in Sri Lanka. Further, It was identified that these market turbulences have had a severe impact on the supply chains of both countries, mainly as a factor common to both markets.

This paper examines the efficiency of the Swedish stock market, specifically the Large cap list of the Stockholm stock exchange. This is achieved by implementing the relative strength method of investing during the decade of 2010-2020 and evaluate the results in contrast to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The relative strength method applied in this paper is the similar strategy that Jagadeesh & Titman (1993) utilized. In short, the strategy is based on buying the historically best performing stocks whilst selling short the previous worst performers. Additionally, the risks associated with the method were examined with the risk measurements of the Jensen Alpha and the Modigliani risk-adjusted performance. The results indicate that the relative strength method is unable to consistently generate above-market returns, so that the study is unable to reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis. In addition, the relative strength method is unable to justify the risks associated.