Ensemble simulation is a commonly used technique in operational forecasting of weather and floods. Multi-member ensemble output is usually large, multivariate, and challenging to interpret interactively. Forecast meteorologists and hydrologists are interested in understanding the uncertainties associated with the simulation; specifically variability between the ensemble members. The visualization of ensemble members is currently accomplished through spaghetti plots or hydrographs. To improve visualization techniques and tools for forecasters, we conducted a userstudy to evaluate the effectiveness of existing uncertainty visualization techniques on 1D and 2D synthetic datasets. We designed an uncertainty evaluation framework to enable easier design of such studies for scientific visualization. The techniques evaluated are errorbars, scaled size of glyphs, color-mapping on glyphs, and color-mapping of uncertainty on the data surface. Although we did not find a consistent order among the four techniques for all tasks, we found that the efficiency of techniques used highly depended on the tasks being performed. Errorbars consistently underperformed throughout the experiment. Scaling the size of glyphs and color-mapping of the surface performed reasonably well. With results from the user-study, we iteratively developed a tool named ‘Noodles’ to interactively explore the ensemble uncertainty in weather simulations. Uncertainty was quantified using standard deviation, inter-quartile range, width of the 95% confidence interval, and by bootstrapping the data. A coordinated view of ribbon and glyph-based uncertainty visualization, spaghetti plots, and data transect plots was provided to two meteorologists for expert evaluation. They found it useful in assessing uncertainty in the data, especially in finding outliers and avoiding the parametrizations leading to these outliers. Additionally, they could identify spatial regions with high uncertainty thereby determining poorly simulated storm environments and deriving physical interpretation of these model issues. We also describe uncertainty visualization capabilities developed for a tool named ‘FloodViz’ for visualization and analysis of flood simulation ensembles. Simple member and trend plots and composited inundation maps with uncertainty are described along with different types of glyph based uncertainty representations. We also provide feedback from a hydrologist using various features of the tool from an operational perspective.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-21T14:19:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo Baba.pdf: 3642224 bytes, checksum: 81e8e78f554cdf870e6f9a554b71f87a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-31 / Climatic data are more and more important to predict climate phenomena or to evaluate historical data that serve as support for decision making especially for agriculture. Ensuring the quality of these data is crucial. These data are collected by the meteorological stations, during this process some data gaps and data inconsistent may be generated. Identify suspicious or inconsistent data is very important to ensure data quality. This paper presents an approach that uses statistical and geostatistical techniques to identify incorrect and suspicious data and estimate new values to fill gaps and errors. In this research, a spatial database was used to implement these techniques (statistical and geostatistical) and to test and evaluate the weather data. To evaluate these techniques we used data from stations located in Paraná State to evaluate the temperature variable. To check the results of the estimated data, we used the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE). As a result, the uses of these techniques have proved to be suitable to identify basic errors and historical errors. The temporal validation showed a poor performance by overestimating the amount of incorrect data. Regarding the estimation techniques applied Kriging, Inverse of Distance Weighted and Linear Regression, all showed similar performance in the error analysis. / A análise de dados climáticos serve de suporte na previsão de fenômenos relacionados, na avaliação de seus dados históricos e para a tomada de decisões, em especial na área da agricultura. Garantir a sua qualidade é fundamental. O processo de coleta desses dados, através das estações meteorológicas, pode apresentar problemas, onde dados inconsistentes podem ser geridos ou obtidos. A identificação de dados inconsistentes ou suspeitos é de fundamental importância na garantia de qualidade dos dados. Este trabalho apresenta uma abordagem para solução do problema, utilizando técnicas estatísticas e geoestatísticas na identificação de dados inconsistentes e na estimativa de dados a serem corrigidos ou preenchidos. A implementação destas técnicas em um banco de dados espacial apresentou-se como um facilitador na identificação e no preenchimento desses dados. Para avaliação destas técnicas utilizou-se de dados das estações localizadas no Estado do Paraná, para análise da variável temperatura. Para avaliar os resultados, foram utilizados os erros médio e quadrático. Como resultado, destaca-se que as técnicas de identificação de erros mostraram-se adequadas na consistência de erros básicos e históricos. A validação espacial apresentou baixo desempenho por superestimar a quantidade de dados incorretos. Quanto as técnicas utilizadas na estimativa dos dados, Krigagem, Inverso da Distância e Regressão Linear, todas apresentaram desempenho semelhantes com relação à análise dos erros.

Cette étude traite du vieillissement des ouvrages en pierres calcaires en interaction avec leur environnement, en se basant à la fois sur la caractérisation des matériaux et des conditions climatiques locales. L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier le rôle des conditions climatiques sur la dégradation des pierres par une estimation quantitative du poids des différents processus physiques de dégradation : gel-dégel, condensation and dilatations hygro-thermiques empêchées. Deux sites majeurs ont été sélectionnés : le Château de Chambord en France et le site d’Al-Namrud en Irak, qui est une ancienne capitale assyrienne datant de 1280 BC. Les matériaux français étudiés sont le tuffeau et la pierre de Richemont, qui a été abondamment utilisée comme pierre de substitution durant les restaurations du 20ème siècle. Les matériaux irakiens utilisés sont issus de prélèvements sur des pierres d’origines altérées, des pierres d’origine saines, ainsi que la pierre candidate pour la restauration du site. L’approche choisie pour l’estimation du risque d’endommagement commence par la réalisation d’une campagne expérimentale de caractérisation multi-physiques et multi-échelles des pierres calcaires utilisées à Chambord, ajouté à la collecte des données météorologiques à Chambord grâce à une station et des mesures dans la pierre. L’estimation du risque d’endommagement est obtenue en combinant l’utilisation des données climatiques et de la caractérisation des matériaux, grâce au calcul de l’impact des différents processus physiques de dégradation, qui a nécessité plusieurs développements méthodologiques. La méthodologie proposée pour l’estimation du risque d’endommagement est ensuite appliquée au site d’Al-Namrud. Finalement, un carnet de santé numérique préliminaire du plus édifiant monument d’Al-Namrud – la Ziggurat – est réalisé pour son diagnostic de durabilité. / This study deals with the ageing of limestone structures as a result of the interaction with their environment. It is based on the characterization of both the material and the local climatic conditions. The objective of this thesis is to study the role of climatic conditions in the degradation of stone by quantitative estimation of the weight of the different physical weathering processes: freezing-thawing, condensation and restrained hygro-thermal dilations. Two major historic sites were selected: the Château of Chambord in France and the site of Al-Nimrud City in Iraq, an ancient Assyrian capital, built in 1280 BCE. The French materials studied are tuffeau and Richemont stone, extensively used as a substitute for tuffeau restoration during part of the 20th century. The Iraqi materials studied are samples cored in situ in original weathered stones, original healthy stones, and the stone that could be used as a substitute for restoration. The approach chosen for damage risk assessment starts by the realization of a multiphysics and multiscale experimental characterization campaign of the limestone used at Chambord, added to the collection of meteorological data at Chambord thanks to a weather station supplemented by situ stone measurements. The damage risk assessment is obtained by the combined use of climate data and material characterization, through the calculation of the impact of thedifferent physical weathering processes, which required some methodological developments. The proposed damage risk assessment methodology is then applied to Al-Nimrud site. Finally, a preliminary digital health record of the most prominent monument of Al-Nimrud - the Al-Ziggurat - is carried out to diagnose its durability.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Diseases and environment are closely related, especially with regard to air temperature and relative humidity. The weather data tend to follow a daily pattern of temporal variation, which derives mainly from the daily variation of the surface radiation balance. Based on this, this study aimed to make a qualitative and quantitative description of the database of the Automatic Meteorological Station of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) in Santa Maria, RS, determine the hours of greatest frequency of occurrence of daily extreme air temperatures in Santa Maria, develop models to estimate hourly values of air temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH), based on values measured in "UTC standard times" and on the daily minimum air temperature and to determine the risk of fungal diseases occurrence during the developmental cycle of potato in different planting dates, using the Blitecast forecasting system. Models were fitted to estimate air T and partial vapor pressure of water at different times of the day. RH was indirectly obtained from partial vapor pressure of water and saturation vapor pressure, calculated from estimated T values. The database of Principal Climatological Station of Santa Maria was transformed to an hourly estimated T and RH database and the Blitecast's calculated severity values (CSV) were obtained for 14 planting dates in 43 years. The automatic weather station of Santa Maria, RS, belonging to INMET, shows 90.1% of the days of flawless data records in 10 years, from 2002 to 2011. The minimum daily air temperature in Santa Maria occurs more frequently at 09AM UTC, corresponding to 6AM on local official time, from September to February. From March through August, this time is delayed, and its occurrence to be more frequent at 10 h UTC. The precision of the estimates ranged from 0.7 ºC to 1.5 ºC, with average deviation of 0.65 °C for T and 0.7 % to 1.2 %, with average deviation of up to 4% for RH depending on the time. Potato crops during the Fall growing season require on average 54% more fungicide applications compared to the Spring season. In the Spring growing season the most probable number of sprayings ranged from two to four and from six to seven in the Fall growing season. Potato crops planted in August and March were demanded a lower economic, ecological and farmer health cost in crop protection against late blight than earlier crops (July and February). / Doenças e ambiente estão intimamente relacionados, especialmente no que se refere à temperatura e umidade relativa do ar. Os elementos meteorológicos tendem a seguir um padrão de variação temporal diária, que deriva principalmente da variação diária do balanço de radiação da superfície. Com base nisso, o objetivo desse trabalho foi descrever qualitativa e quantitativamente do banco de dados da Estação Meteorológica Automática do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia de Santa Maria (INMET), determinar os horários de maior frequência de ocorrência das temperaturas extremas diárias do ar em Santa Maria, desenvolver modelos para estimativa dos valores horários de temperatura (T) e umidade relativa do ar (UR) e determinar o risco de ocorrência de requeima no ciclo de desenvolvimento da batata, em diferentes datas de plantio. Foram ajustados modelos analíticos para estimativa da T e da pressão parcial de vapor no ar nos diferentes horários do dia. A UR foi obtida indiretamente, com base nos valores de pressão parcial de vapor no ar estimados e nos valores de pressão de saturação de vapor no ar, calculados com base na T estimada. O banco de dados da Estação Climatológica Principal de Santa Maria foi transformado em um banco de dados horários estimados de T e UR e foram obtidos os valores de severidade calculada (VSC) pelo sistema Blitecast em 14 datas de plantio da batata em 43 anos agrícolas. A estação meteorológica automática de Santa Maria, RS, pertencente ao INMET, apresenta 90,1% dos dias sem falhas de registros de dados em 10 anos, de 2002 a 2011. A temperatura mínima diária do ar em Santa Maria ocorreu com maior frequência às 09 h UTC, correspondendo às 06 h no horário oficial local, nos meses de setembro a fevereiro. De março até agosto, esse horário é atrasado, sendo a sua ocorrência mais frequente às 10 h UTC. A precisão das estimativas variou de 0,7 oC a 1,5 oC, com desvio médio de até 0,65oC para T do ar e de 0,7 % a 1,2 %, com desvio médio de até 4 %, para UR, dependendo do horário. Cultivos de batata no período de safrinha necessitam, em média, de um número 54 % maior de aplicações de fungicida em relação ao período de safra. Na safra o número mais provável de pulverizações oscila entre duas e quatro e na safrinha entre seis e sete. Plantios de batata realizados em agosto e em março exigiram um menor custo econômico, ecológico e de saúde do produtor na proteção da cultura contra a requeima do que plantios mais precoces (julho e fevereiro).

This work is dedicated to structural parameter of the refractive index in the atmosphere Cn2 and his various models. For comparison the models are simulated only for one area and only for one day. The work represented the influence of atmospheric turbulence on the communication environment and on the individual models. In addition this work is for selected areas and for the input conditions created program for modeling of structural parameters and meteorological data in the atmosphere

In terms of master’s thesis HAM-Tools library designed for MATLAB/Simulink was modified for the use in simulations of houses in the Czech Republic. Modified library and its parts were described in detail and tested by the simulation of the one-zone and two-zones models of the house. The simulations of models with same parameters were also realized in program TRNSYS. The corresponding results achieved in mentioned simulation tools were compared to each other. The one-zone model created by using HAM-Tools library is tested by the simulation of ventilating, heating, cooling, and sources of moisture. A demonstration of the practical use of the simulation is carried out in the thesis, namely by examining the influence of the insulation thickness on the thermal performance of the house (resp. its heat loss) on real atmospheric conditions. Among others, available resources of meteorological data are mentioned and compared to each other. The function for processing of the meteorological data to a file compatible with the HAM-Tools library was created. It was also created a material data file containing commonly used materials of building structures in the Czech Republic and their parameters.

Le principali anomalie evidenziate nelle nocciole avariate riguardano la presenza di macchie necrotiche, imbrunimenti interni rilevati inseguito al taglio dei frutti e la presenza di marciumi parziali o totali su di essi con conseguente riduzione del prodotto disponibile sul mercato e ingenti perdite economiche. Sulla base di quanto premesso, lo scopo principale di questa tesi è stato quello di identificare e caratterizzare l'agente causale/i dei difetti del nocciolo e di definire un protocollo di gestione del problema, secondo i principi IPM. È stata quantificata l'incidenza dei generi fungini isolati da nocciole provenienti da diverse aree geografiche (Caucaso e Turchia), raccolte in diversi anni e in diverse fasi di crescita della coltura. Diaporthe è stato identificato come il principale genere fungino associato ai difetti della nocciola, e la caratterizzazione molecolare ha confermato il ruolo predominante della specie D. eres. Sono state studiate le caratteristiche ecologiche di questo fungo e l'efficacia in vitro di fungicidi chimici e biologici per controllarne la crescita miceliale, lo sviluppo di picnidi e la formazione di cirri. I risultati ottenuti costituiscono una base per definire linee guida per la corretta gestione della coltura al fine di prevenire la comparsa del patogeno identificato e delle difettosità nelle nocciole / Defects on hazelnuts are responsible for a significant reduction in the availability of high-quality hazelnuts with profound economic impacts. A reduction in the occurrence of defects, based on the identification of causal agents and on their control, is critical to improve the quality of raw nut products and reduce yield losses. Based on this background, the main aim of this thesis was to identify and characterize the causal agent/s of kernel defects in hazelnuts and to define a management protocol, according to IPM principles. Defects affecting hazelnuts are cause of brown spots on the kernel surface and darkening/browning inside the kernel, visible after nuts are half-cut. The incidence of fungal genera in hazelnuts coming from different geographical areas (Caucasus and Turkey), collected in different years at different crop growth stages, was quantified. Diaporthe was identified as the main genus involved in hazelnut defects, and the molecular characterization confirmed the predominant role of D. eres. Its ecological needs were investigated, and the in vitro efficacy of chemical and biological fungicide were screened to control D. eres growth, pycnidial conidiomata development and cirrhi occurrence. This would be an essential tool for a sustainable crop protection approach in this economically important crop