Real-time wave forecasts are critical to a variety of coastal and offshore opera- tions. NOAA’s global wave forecasts, at present, do not extend into many coastal regions of interest. Even after more than two decades of the historical Exxon Valdez disaster, Cook Inlet (CI) and Prince William Sound (PWS) are regions that suffer from a lack of accurate wave forecast information. This dissertation develops high- resolution integrated wave forecasting schemes for these regions in order to meet the critical requirements associated with shipping, commercial and sport fishing vessel safety, and oil spill response. This dissertation also performs a detailed qualitative and quantitative assessment of the impact of various forcing functions on wave pre- dictions, and develops maps showing extreme variations in significant wave heights (SWHs). For instance, it is found that the SWH could vary by as much as 1 m in the northern CI region in the presence of currents (hence justifying the need for integration of the wave model with a circulation model). Such maps can be useful for several engineering operations, and could also serve as guidance tool as to what can be expected in certain regions. Aside from the system development, the issue of forecast reliability is also addressed for PWS region in the context of the associated uncertainty which confronts the manager of engineering operations or other planners. For this purpose, high-resolution 36-h daily forecasts of SWHs are compared with measurements from buoys and satellites for about a year. The results show that 70% of the peak SWHs in the range 5-8 m were predicted with an accuracy of 15% or less for a forecast lead time of 9 h. On average, results indicate 70% or greater likelihood of the prediction falling within a tolerance of ±(1*RMSE) for all lead times. This analysis could not be performed for CI due to lack of data sources.

Accurate determination of the tropopause is important for applications such as dynamical analysis and forecasting, radiative transfer calculations, and the diagnosis of chemical transport in the atmosphere. In this paper, we examine how well the extratropical tropopause is determined in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) high-resolution Global Forecast System (GFS) model analysis over the continental United States using high-resolution aircraft and radiosonde data. The GFS analyses and sounding data compare well, with r.m.s. differences of approximately 600m, which is comparable to the vertical resolution of the model. The GFS tropopause is a good proxy in areas without in situ observations, but near the subtropical jet the GFS analysis often mistakenly identifies the secondary rather than the primary tropopause. We also explore an alternative method to identify the tropopause by fitting a smoothed step-function to the static stability profile. This new approach provides a measure of the depth of the troposphere-stratosphere transition and facilitates the study of the dynamical behavior of the tropopause region. In particular, using the transition depth, we are able to identify the statistical behavior of temperature in profiles with deep or shallow tropopause transition layers.

The business environment nowadays becomes much more dynamically and tensely than the past driven by the trend of globalization and free trading. Therefore, any enterprise in the world has to face competition from everywhere in the world. Under such complicated business environment, it¡¦s dangerous to make decision based on past experience or instinct. If some key message is missed or not collected, a disaster caused by logical decision, but far away from the reality might just happen. In last couple decades, software providers launched DSS(Decision Support System), BI(Business Intelligence), ¡K, etc. based on current enterprise IT infrastructure like ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning), MRPII(Manufacturing Resource Planning), ¡K, etc. to help enterprise for decision making. However, such systems are not popular in Taiwan, not to mention the successful stories. While I studied the lesson ¡§information technology and competitive advantage¡¨ conducted by Profession Kuo, I concluded from classmates¡¦ discussion that the root causes were as follows. 1. Most Taiwan manufacturers¡¦ strategy is to launch product at lower cost to allow them to win business via price war. Therefore, they are willing to invest tangible hardware, not intangible software. 2. The branches of international companies can¡¦t develop their own information system due to Corporate policy or security concern. Based on above mentioned, I started thinking if we could have a BI system that doesn¡¦t need to spend money, is easy to implement, and no need for Corporate approval. Such BI system could help management to retrieve effective and enough information for precise decision making. After evaluation, I think Microsoft Excel spreadsheet software is the most suitable solution. It¡¦s because almost all enterprises have it, it can contain 1M units of data in a file, and useful tools of macro, pivot table, sorting, filtering, VBA(Visual Basic for Application). Furthermore, the nature of spreadsheet is similar to database structure, so it can be easily integrated with database like SQL database, Microsoft Access. Thanks to Profession Kuo¡¦s coaching, I started doing research, and studied necessary tool like VBA, ¡K, etc. to warm up for this thesis. After months, I finally finish it, and I hope it can contribute to the ones that have similar problem with me.

The Sahel region located in Western Africa is well known for its high rainfall variability. Severe and recurring droughts have plagued the region during the last three decades of the 20th century, while heavy precipitation events (with return periods of up to 1,200 years) were reported between 2007 and 2014. Vulnerability to extreme events is partly due to the fact that people are not prepared to cope with them. It would be of great benefit to farmers if information about the magnitudes of precipitation and streamflow in the upcoming rainy season were available a few months before; they could then switch to more adapted crops and farm management systems if required. Such information would also be useful for other sectors of the economy, such as hydropower production, domestic/industrial water consumption, fishing and navigation. A logical solution to the above problem would be seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasting, which would allow to generate knowledge about the upcoming rainy season based on information available before it's beginning. The research in this thesis sought to improve seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasting in the Sahel by developing statistical rainfall and streamflow seasonal forecasting models. Sea surface temperature (SST) were used as pools of predictor. The developed method allowed for a systematic search of the best period to calculate the predictor before it was used to predict average rainfall or streamflow over the upcoming rainy season. Eight statistical models consisted of various statistical methods including linear and polynomial regressions were developed in this study. Two main approaches for seasonal streamflow forecasting were developed here: 1) A two steps streamflow forecasting approach (called the indirect method) which first linked the average SST over a period prior to the date of forecast to average rainfall amount in the upcoming rainy season using the eight statistical models, then linked the rainfall amount to streamflow using a rainfall-runoff model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)). In this approach, the forecasted rainfall was disaggregated to daily time step using a simple approach (the fragment method) before being fed into SWAT. 2) A one step streamflow forecasting approach (called as the direct method) which linked the average SST over a period prior to the date of forecast to the average streamflow in the upcoming rainy season using the eight statistical models. To decrease the uncertainty due to model selection, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was also applied. This method is able to explore the possibility of combining all available potential predictors (instead of selecting one based on an arbitrary criterion). The BMA is also capability to produce the probability density of the forecast which allows end-users to visualize the density of expected value and assess the level of uncertainty of the generated forecast. Finally, the economic value of forecast system was estimated using a simple economic approach (the cost/loss ratio method). Each developed method was evaluated using three well known model efficiency criteria: the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (Ef), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Hit score (H). The proposed models showed equivalent or better rainfall forecasting skills than most research conducted in the Sahel region. The linear model driven by the Pacific SST produced the best rainfall forecasts (Ef = 0.82, R2 = 0.83, and H = 82%) at a lead time of up to 12 months. The rainfall forecasting model based on polynomial regression and forced by the Atlantic ocean SST can be used using a lead time of up to 5 months and had a slightly lower performance (Ef = 0.80, R2 = 0.81, and H = 82%). Despite the fact that the natural relationship between rainfall and SST is nonlinear, this study found that good results can be achieved using linear models. For streamflow forecasting, the direct method using polynomial regression performed slightly better than the indirect method (Ef = 0.74, R2 = 0.76, and H = 84% for the direct method; Ef = 0.70, R2 = 0.69, and H = 77% for the indirect method). The direct method was driven by the Pacific SST and had five months lead time. The indirect method was driven by the Atlantic SST and had six months lead time. No significant difference was found in terms of performance between BMA and the linear regression models based on a single predictor for streamflow forecasting. However, BMA was able to provide a probabilistic forecast that accounts for model selection uncertainty, while the linear regression model had a longer lead time. The economic value of forecasts developed using the direct and indirect methods were estimated using the cost/loss ratio method. It was found that the direct method had a better value than the indirect method. The value of the forecast declined with higher return periods for all methods. Results also showed that for the particular watershed under investigation, the direct method provided a better information for flood protection. This research has demonstrated the possibility of decent seasonal streamflow forecasting in the Sirba watershed, using the tropical Pacific and Atlantic SSTs as predictors.The findings of this study can be used to improve the performance of seasonal streamflow forecasting in the Sahel. A package implementing the statistical models developed in this study was developed so that end users can apply them for seasonal rainfall or streamflow forecasting in any region they are interested in, and using any predictor they may want to try.

A citricultura brasileira se destaca no mercado global de citros, apresentando altos valores de produção e produtividade. Dentre as diversas doenças que afetam a cultura, a podridão floral dos citros (PFC) vem ganhando destaque com o deslocamento de áreas produtoras para regiões mais favoráveis à ocorrência desta doença. A PFC, causada por espécies dos complexos Colletotrichum acutatum e C. gloeosporioides, é especialmente problemática em anos de temperaturas amenas e alta umidade. Os citricultores realizam pulverizações preventivas para o controle da PFC todos os anos, embora condições climáticas favoráveis à doença ocorram apenas ocasionalmente. Além do impacto econômico, as frequentes pulverizações com fungicidas aumentam a pressão de seleção sobre isolados resistentes, o que pode interferir na eficiência do controle químico. A utilização de sistemas de previsão de epidemias pode evitar que pulverizações desnecessárias de fungicidas sejam realizadas caso não haja condições favoráveis à ocorrência da doença. Para o desenvolvimento destes sistemas, é imprescindível determinar um limiar de ação para a aplicação de fungicidas nos pomares. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho teve por objetivos: (i) estabelecer um limiar de ação para a aplicação de fungicidas com base na germinação de conídios de C. acutatum que permita o controle a doença igualmente ou de forma mais eficiente do que o sistema de pulverização adotado pelos citricultores do sudoeste paulista; (ii) caracterizar a sensibilidade de isolados dos complexos C. gloeosporioides e C. acutatum à trifloxistrobina e ao tebuconazol in vitro e molecularmente, para identificar possíveis mudanças de sensibilidade das espécies a estes fungicidas. Para a definição do limiar de ação, tratamentos baseados em índices de risco foram comparados ao tratamento testemunha e ao calendário fixo de aplicações, usualmente adotado pelos produtores. A aplicação de fungicidas quando limiar de 15% de germinação de conídios era atingido, foi eficiente em controlar a doença e reduzir o número de aplicações de fungicidas. Nos ensaios de sensibilidade a fungicidas dois métodos foram utilizados para a determinação da CE50: o da diluição em gradiente espiral para trifloxistrobina e tebuconazol e o da inibição da germinação de conídios para a trifloxistrobina. Foram utilizados isolados coletados entre 1999 e 2016. A CE50 média da coleção de isolados de acordo com o método da diluição em gradiente espiral variou de 0,158 a 0,297 μg/ml e 0,1 a 0,182 μg/ml para trifloxistrobina e tebuconazol, respectivamente. Para a trifloxistrobina, de acordo com o método da inibição da germinação, a CE50 média foi de 0,002 μg/ml. Não foram verificadas características moleculares nem valores de CE50 atrelados à mudança de sensibilidade dos isolados. / Brazilian citrus industry represents a significant share in the global citrus market. Amongst several diseases that affect the crop, postbloom fruit drop (PFD) has been gaining prominence in Sao Paulo with the displacement of citrus areas to regions in which weather conditions are more favorable to the occurrence of this disease. PFD, caused by species of the complexes Colletotrichum acutatum and C. gloeosporioides, is especially problematic in years of mild temperatures and high humidity. Citrus growers spray the orchards preventively for PFD control every year, although favorable climatic conditions do not occur regularly. In addition to the economic impact, this practice increases the selection pressure of fungicide resistant isolates, and may decrease the efficiency of chemical control in a long term. The use of disease forecasting systems is able to prevent unnecessary fungicide sprays. For the development of such systems, it is essential to determine an action threshold for the application of fungicides in the orchards. The objectives of this work were: (i) to establish an action threshold for fungicide sprays based on the germination of C. acutatum conidia; (ii) to characterize the sensitivity of C. gloeosporioides and C. acutatum isolates to trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole in vitro and molecularly. Regarding the definition of the action threshold, treatments based on risk indices were compared to the control treatments and calendar based sprays, usually adopted by growers. The 15% conidia germination threshold was efficient in controlling the disease and reducing the number of fungicide applications. In the fungicide sensitivity tests, two methods were used to determine the EC50, the spiral gradient dilution for trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole, and the method of conidial germination inhibition for trifloxystrobin. Isolates collected between 1999 and 2016 were used. The mean EC50 of the isolate collection determined by the spiral gradient dilution method ranged from 0.158 to 0.297 μg/ml and from 0.1 to 0.182 μg/ml for trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole, respectively. Mean EC50 of trifloxystrobin estimated by the conidial germination inhibition method was 0.002 μg/ml. No mutations or EC50 values indicated shifts of fungicide sensitivity on the isolates.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Late blight in the most important disease of potato crop and it may cause major yield losses in a matter of a few days. The use of forecast modls or systems to predict diseases has the potential of reducing the number of fungicide applications, which reduces production costs, the ocurrence risks of severe epidemics, and environmental pollution. The objective of this work was to evaluate the perfomance of Blitecast and Prophy systems for late blight prediction Asterix and SMIJ461-1 potato clones at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. Two experiments were carried in the experimental area of the Crop Science Department during Spring 2004and Autumn 2005. Meteorological data necessary to run the models were collected in the center of the canopy at 10 and 150cm height above the soil surface and in a standard meteorological station located about 80 m from the canopy. The experimental design was a completely randomized, with four replications. Each plot was composed by 4 rows of plants with 5 m in length. Different accumulated severity values (VS), calculated with Blitecast and Prophy forecast systems, were used to indicate the time of fungicide application for late blight control in the two potato clones. The treatments wereformed by the accumulated VSgenerated by the two systems. The Prophy system predicted a larger number of fungicide applications throughout the developmental than the Blitecast system. The fungicide application scheme based on the Blitecast system increased yield by at least 34,5% compared with control untreated treatments and reduced the number of applications in 25% during wet periods and in 70% during dry periods, having similar efficiency to the obtaines with one weekly application of fungicide in controlling late blight. These results, indicate that it is possible to reduce the number of sprayings with fungicides without affecting potato yield. / A requeima é a mais importante doeça na cultura da batata, podendo comprometer toda a produção em poucos dias. A utilização de modelos ou sistemas de previsão de doenças reduz o número necessário de aplicações de fungicidas e, desta maneira, também os custos para o produtor, os riscos de ocorrência de epidemias severas e a poluição ambiental , em função do menos uso de defensivos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho dos sistemas Blitecast e Prophy modificados, nas condições de cultivo de batata na primavera e no outono, para os clones Asterir e SMIJ461-1, na região de Santa Maria, RS. Os experimentos foram conduzidos na área experimental do Departamento de Fitotecnianos preíodos de primavera de 2004 e outono de 2005. Os dados meteorológicos foram coletados no centro da área experimental no interior e acima do dossel a 10 e a 150cm acima da superfície do solo e na Estação Meteorológica Principal de Santa Maria, distante 80m do experimento. O delineamento utilizado para as parcelas de batata foi o inteiramente casualizado com quatro repetições, sendo cada parcela composta de 4 fileiras de plantas com 5m de comprimento. Utilizaram-se diferentes valores de severidade(VS) acumulada calculada pelos sistemas de alerta´´Blitecast´´ e Prophy´´ para indicar o momento de aplicação do fungicida para o controle da requeima nos dois clones da batata. Os tratamentos foram diferenciados por meio dos valores de severidade (VS) acumulados, gerados respectivamente pelos dois sistemas. O uso do sistema Prophy resulta na indicação de um número maior de aplicações de fungicida ao longo do ciclo do que o uso do sistema Blitecast. O suso do sistema Blitecast incrementa em pelo menos 34,5% o rendimento total de tubérculos em relação às áreas sem aplicação de fungicida e reduz o número de aplicações em 25% nos períodos úmidos e em 70% nos períodos secos, tendo eficiência,no controle da requeima similar à obtida com aplicações semanais de fungicida, mostrando ser possível reduzir o número de pulverizações sem afetar a produção.

A citricultura brasileira se destaca no mercado global de citros, apresentando altos valores de produção e produtividade. Dentre as diversas doenças que afetam a cultura, a podridão floral dos citros (PFC) vem ganhando destaque com o deslocamento de áreas produtoras para regiões mais favoráveis à ocorrência desta doença. A PFC, causada por espécies dos complexos Colletotrichum acutatum e C. gloeosporioides, é especialmente problemática em anos de temperaturas amenas e alta umidade. Os citricultores realizam pulverizações preventivas para o controle da PFC todos os anos, embora condições climáticas favoráveis à doença ocorram apenas ocasionalmente. Além do impacto econômico, as frequentes pulverizações com fungicidas aumentam a pressão de seleção sobre isolados resistentes, o que pode interferir na eficiência do controle químico. A utilização de sistemas de previsão de epidemias pode evitar que pulverizações desnecessárias de fungicidas sejam realizadas caso não haja condições favoráveis à ocorrência da doença. Para o desenvolvimento destes sistemas, é imprescindível determinar um limiar de ação para a aplicação de fungicidas nos pomares. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho teve por objetivos: (i) estabelecer um limiar de ação para a aplicação de fungicidas com base na germinação de conídios de C. acutatum que permita o controle a doença igualmente ou de forma mais eficiente do que o sistema de pulverização adotado pelos citricultores do sudoeste paulista; (ii) caracterizar a sensibilidade de isolados dos complexos C. gloeosporioides e C. acutatum à trifloxistrobina e ao tebuconazol in vitro e molecularmente, para identificar possíveis mudanças de sensibilidade das espécies a estes fungicidas. Para a definição do limiar de ação, tratamentos baseados em índices de risco foram comparados ao tratamento testemunha e ao calendário fixo de aplicações, usualmente adotado pelos produtores. A aplicação de fungicidas quando limiar de 15% de germinação de conídios era atingido, foi eficiente em controlar a doença e reduzir o número de aplicações de fungicidas. Nos ensaios de sensibilidade a fungicidas dois métodos foram utilizados para a determinação da CE50: o da diluição em gradiente espiral para trifloxistrobina e tebuconazol e o da inibição da germinação de conídios para a trifloxistrobina. Foram utilizados isolados coletados entre 1999 e 2016. A CE50 média da coleção de isolados de acordo com o método da diluição em gradiente espiral variou de 0,158 a 0,297 μg/ml e 0,1 a 0,182 μg/ml para trifloxistrobina e tebuconazol, respectivamente. Para a trifloxistrobina, de acordo com o método da inibição da germinação, a CE50 média foi de 0,002 μg/ml. Não foram verificadas características moleculares nem valores de CE50 atrelados à mudança de sensibilidade dos isolados. / Brazilian citrus industry represents a significant share in the global citrus market. Amongst several diseases that affect the crop, postbloom fruit drop (PFD) has been gaining prominence in Sao Paulo with the displacement of citrus areas to regions in which weather conditions are more favorable to the occurrence of this disease. PFD, caused by species of the complexes Colletotrichum acutatum and C. gloeosporioides, is especially problematic in years of mild temperatures and high humidity. Citrus growers spray the orchards preventively for PFD control every year, although favorable climatic conditions do not occur regularly. In addition to the economic impact, this practice increases the selection pressure of fungicide resistant isolates, and may decrease the efficiency of chemical control in a long term. The use of disease forecasting systems is able to prevent unnecessary fungicide sprays. For the development of such systems, it is essential to determine an action threshold for the application of fungicides in the orchards. The objectives of this work were: (i) to establish an action threshold for fungicide sprays based on the germination of C. acutatum conidia; (ii) to characterize the sensitivity of C. gloeosporioides and C. acutatum isolates to trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole in vitro and molecularly. Regarding the definition of the action threshold, treatments based on risk indices were compared to the control treatments and calendar based sprays, usually adopted by growers. The 15% conidia germination threshold was efficient in controlling the disease and reducing the number of fungicide applications. In the fungicide sensitivity tests, two methods were used to determine the EC50, the spiral gradient dilution for trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole, and the method of conidial germination inhibition for trifloxystrobin. Isolates collected between 1999 and 2016 were used. The mean EC50 of the isolate collection determined by the spiral gradient dilution method ranged from 0.158 to 0.297 μg/ml and from 0.1 to 0.182 μg/ml for trifloxystrobin and tebuconazole, respectively. Mean EC50 of trifloxystrobin estimated by the conidial germination inhibition method was 0.002 μg/ml. No mutations or EC50 values indicated shifts of fungicide sensitivity on the isolates.

Dissertação(mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Oceânica, Escola de Engenharia, 2005. / Submitted by Lilian M. Silva (lilianmadeirasilva@hotmail.com) on 2013-04-20T21:03:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Estudo para o desenvolvimento de um previsor descargas elétricas atmosféricas aplicado à região costeira do estado do Rio de Janeiro.pdf: 5929611 bytes, checksum: 6d12186a0ae17fe81eca3382c1b88f42 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Bruna Vieira(bruninha_vieira@ibest.com.br) on 2013-06-04T16:31:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Estudo para o desenvolvimento de um previsor descargas elétricas atmosféricas aplicado à região costeira do estado do Rio de Janeiro.pdf: 5929611 bytes, checksum: 6d12186a0ae17fe81eca3382c1b88f42 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-06-04T16:31:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Estudo para o desenvolvimento de um previsor descargas elétricas atmosféricas aplicado à região costeira do estado do Rio de Janeiro.pdf: 5929611 bytes, checksum: 6d12186a0ae17fe81eca3382c1b88f42 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / The atmospheric dynamics evidently is very complex. There are many macro and micron scales processes and meteorological variables involved in the atmospheric physical phenomena. The storms with electrical dischargesare distinguished, among these phenomena, by the damage consequences to the human beings, directly or indirectly. Many researchers have pursued the possibility of forecasting the occurrence of a storm with electrical discharges, principally in the last three decades. However, there are not improvements in forecast performance, mainly due to phenomenon complexity. The main objective of the present dissertation was to accomplish a study to determine the viability or not of constructing a forecast system of atmospheric electrical discharges from artificial intelligence techniques, specifically artificial neural networks (NN). The base of the system was constituted of numerical simulations results of the atmospheric dynamics obtained from the mesoscale model MM5. It was identified meteorological variables (outputs of MM5) that would have some correlation with the electrical discharges. These variables act as input in the NN, which generate the forecast, consisting in the number of electrical discharges that will reach the ground some posterior time to the relative time of the simulated atmospheric fields. The region chosen for this study includes the state of Rio de Janeiro, the south of Espírito Santo, the southeast of Minas Gerais and the AtlanticOcean. Besides possessing a detection system of electrical discharges, this region contains the most important concentration of oil platforms of Brazil, being strategic to better know the atmospheric behavior in this place. Before developing the forecast system based on NN, some comparative tests were made using the MM5 simulation results and GOES infrared imagery, in order to survey the model prognostic capability. The forecast system showed reasonable results, indicating that the NN application may be a promising way to the electrical discharge forecast. However, it is necessary a better investigation, mainly with relation to the accomplishment of others tests with a bigger set of electrical discharges real data. / A dinâmica da atmosfera é evidentemente bastante complexa. Muitos são os processos físicos de macro e micro escalas e as variáveis meteorológicas envolvidos nos fenômenos atmosféricos. As tempestades com descargas elétricas destacam-se, dentre estes fenômenos, pelas conseqüências danosas causadas aos seres humanos, direta ou indiretamente. Diversos pesquisadores têm procurado investigar a possibilidade de prever a ocorrência de tempestades com descargas elétricas, principalmente nas úl timas três décadas, entretanto, progressos na performance da previsão ainda não foram alcançados devido à complexidade do fenômeno. O principal objetivo da presente dissertação foi realizar um estudo para determinar a viabilidade ou não de construir um sistema de previsão de descargas elétricas atmosféricas a partir de técnicas de inteligência artificial, mais precisamente redes neurais artificiais (RNA). A base do sistema constituiu-se de resultados de simulações numéricas da dinâmica atmosférica obtidos com o modelo de mesoescala MM5. Variáveis meteorológicas (saídas do MM5), que teriam alguma correlação com as descargas elétricas, foram identificadas e selecionadas como entradas na RNA, a qual gera a previsão, isto é, o número de descargas elétricas que atingirá o solo algum tempo posterior ao tempo relativo dos campos atmosféricos simulados. A região escolhida para este estudo, abrangendo o Estado do Rio de Janeiro, o sul do Estado do Espírito Santo, o sudeste do Estado de Minas Gerais e o Oceano Atlântico, além de possuir um sistema de detecção e monitoramento de descargas elétricas, contém a mais importante concentração de plataformas de petróleo do Brasil, sendo, portanto, estratégico conhecer melhor o seu comportamento atmosférico. Antes de desenvolver o sistema de previsão baseado em RNA, alguns testes comparativ os foram realizados usando resultados de simulação do MM5 e imagens infravermelhas de satélite geoestacionário, a fim de aferir a capacidade preditiva do modelo. O sistema de previsão apresentou resultados razoáveis, indicando que a aplicação da RNA é um cami nho promissor na previsão de descargas elétricas. Contudo, faz-se necessária uma mel hor investigação, principalmente quanto à realização de outros testes com um conjunto maior de dados reais de descargas elétricas.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Potato is grown in Central Rio Grande do Sul State mainly by small farmers, which use weekly sprayings with fungicides, without taking into account if meteorological conditions favor or not Late Blight and other pathogens. Water deficit can affect potato development and growth, which may affect tuber yield and quality. Irrigation applied inadequality may favor diseases due to leaf wetning. Both leaf wetning high an relative humidity play an important role in epidemic events, favoring Late Blight (Phytophthota infestans), a pathogen with high potential of causing disease. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of different levels of irrigation on yield and occurrence of Late Blight in potato cv. Asterix in the area of influence of the Meteorological Station of Santa Maria. Two experiments were conducted at the experimental field, Crop science Department, Federal University of Santa Maria. One experiment was during spring, from 21/11/2005 (emergence) to 21/02/2006 (harvest). The second experiment was during fall, from 10/04 (emergence) to 13/07/2006. The experimental design was a complete randomized, with four replications. Each replication was a 5 m x 3,2 m plot with four rows. Plant spacing was 0,8 m x 0,3 m. Fungicides used to control Late Blight were mancozebe (Dithane NT 3,0 Kg ha-1), copper oxychloride (Cuprogarb 350 4 g l-1), pyraclostrobin + metiram (Cabrio Top 3,0 Kg ha-1). The Blitecast model was used to indicate the timing of spraying, by accumulating severity values (VS) of 0 (control), 18, 24, and 30. Sprinkling irrigation was used assuming 1,0 ETm, 0,75 ETm, 0,50 ETm and no irrigation. Results showed that in dry and high temperature periods, yield was affected by irrigation, mainly when crop water demand was plenty recharged with 100% ETm. During wet periods, yield was affected by the efficient of Late Blight control. The Blitecast model with a severity value of 18 (Bli18) was the most efficient for controlling Late Blight, compared to Bli24 and Bli30, as a tool for managing fungicides application. Irrigations applied at least every there days did not affect Late Blight incidure and development / O cultivo da batata na região central do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul é realizado em sua maioria por pequenos produtores, que se utilizam, em geral, de calendários com aplicação semanal de fungicidas, não levando em consideração se as condições meteorológicas são favoráveis ou desfavoráveis para o desenvolvimento da requeima e outros patógenos da batata. A deficiência hídrica também pode afetar o desenvolvimento e o crescimento dessa cultura, o que se reflete na produtividade e na qualidade dos tubérculos, sendo a irrigação uma prática freqüente. Porém a irrigação realizada inadequadamente pode também favorecer o aparecimento de doenças devido ao molhamento foliar. Tanto o molhamento foliar quanto a umidade relativa do ar elevada desempenham um importante papel na epidemiologia, favorecendo a ocorrência da requeima causada por Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) De Bary, um patógeno de alto potencial destrutivo. O trabalho teve como objetivo determinar o efeito de diferentes níveis de irrigação na produtividade e ocorrência de requeima na cultura da batata, cultivar Asterix , na região de abrangência da Estação Meteorológica de Santa Maria. Foram realizados dois experimentos na área experimental do Departamento de Fitotecnia da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, sendo o primeiro na primavera, no período de 21/11/2005 (emergência) a 21/02/2006 (colheita) e o segundo no outono de 2006, no período de 10/04 (emergência) a 13/07/2006 (colheita). O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o de blocos ao acaso com quatro repetições, sendo cada parcela composta de quatro fileiras de plantas com 5,0 m de comprimento e 3,2 m de largura. O plantio foi realizado conforme as técnicas recomendadas para a região, com espaçamento entre fileiras de plantas de 0,80 m e entre as plantas nas fileiras de 0,30 m. Para o controle da requeima da batata foram utilizados os fungicidas mancozebe (Dithane NT 3,0 kg ha-1 do produto comercial), oxicloreto de cobre (Cuprogarb 350 4 g l-1 do produto comercial), piraclostrobina + metiram (Cabrio Top 3,0 kg ha-1 do produto comercial). Foi utilizado o sistema Blitecast para determinar o momento da aplicação de fungicidas, através do acúmulo de valores de severidade (VS) igual a 0 (Test), 18, 24 e 30. Para fins de comparação, a irrigação foi realizada por aspersão, utilizando a dotação de 1,0 ETm, 0,75 ETm, 0,50 ETm e sem irrigação. Os resultados mostram que em períodos relativamente secos com temperatura alta, a produtividade foi influenciada pela irrigação, principalmente quando a necessidade hídrica da cultura foi plenamente atendida com a reposição de 100% da ETm. Em períodos úmidos, a produtividade foi influenciada pela eficiência no controle da requeima. O sistema Blitecast com acúmulo de 18 valores de severidade (Bli18) foi o mais eficiente em comparação com o Bli24 e o Bli30 para o controle da requeima da batata, como esquema de gerenciamento de aplicação de fungicidas. A irrigação realizada em intervalos de pelo menos três dias não teve influência significativa sobre a incidência e o desenvolvimento da requeima

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Diseases and environment are closely related, especially with regard to air temperature and relative humidity. The weather data tend to follow a daily pattern of temporal variation, which derives mainly from the daily variation of the surface radiation balance. Based on this, this study aimed to make a qualitative and quantitative description of the database of the Automatic Meteorological Station of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) in Santa Maria, RS, determine the hours of greatest frequency of occurrence of daily extreme air temperatures in Santa Maria, develop models to estimate hourly values of air temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH), based on values measured in "UTC standard times" and on the daily minimum air temperature and to determine the risk of fungal diseases occurrence during the developmental cycle of potato in different planting dates, using the Blitecast forecasting system. Models were fitted to estimate air T and partial vapor pressure of water at different times of the day. RH was indirectly obtained from partial vapor pressure of water and saturation vapor pressure, calculated from estimated T values. The database of Principal Climatological Station of Santa Maria was transformed to an hourly estimated T and RH database and the Blitecast's calculated severity values (CSV) were obtained for 14 planting dates in 43 years. The automatic weather station of Santa Maria, RS, belonging to INMET, shows 90.1% of the days of flawless data records in 10 years, from 2002 to 2011. The minimum daily air temperature in Santa Maria occurs more frequently at 09AM UTC, corresponding to 6AM on local official time, from September to February. From March through August, this time is delayed, and its occurrence to be more frequent at 10 h UTC. The precision of the estimates ranged from 0.7 ºC to 1.5 ºC, with average deviation of 0.65 °C for T and 0.7 % to 1.2 %, with average deviation of up to 4% for RH depending on the time. Potato crops during the Fall growing season require on average 54% more fungicide applications compared to the Spring season. In the Spring growing season the most probable number of sprayings ranged from two to four and from six to seven in the Fall growing season. Potato crops planted in August and March were demanded a lower economic, ecological and farmer health cost in crop protection against late blight than earlier crops (July and February). / Doenças e ambiente estão intimamente relacionados, especialmente no que se refere à temperatura e umidade relativa do ar. Os elementos meteorológicos tendem a seguir um padrão de variação temporal diária, que deriva principalmente da variação diária do balanço de radiação da superfície. Com base nisso, o objetivo desse trabalho foi descrever qualitativa e quantitativamente do banco de dados da Estação Meteorológica Automática do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia de Santa Maria (INMET), determinar os horários de maior frequência de ocorrência das temperaturas extremas diárias do ar em Santa Maria, desenvolver modelos para estimativa dos valores horários de temperatura (T) e umidade relativa do ar (UR) e determinar o risco de ocorrência de requeima no ciclo de desenvolvimento da batata, em diferentes datas de plantio. Foram ajustados modelos analíticos para estimativa da T e da pressão parcial de vapor no ar nos diferentes horários do dia. A UR foi obtida indiretamente, com base nos valores de pressão parcial de vapor no ar estimados e nos valores de pressão de saturação de vapor no ar, calculados com base na T estimada. O banco de dados da Estação Climatológica Principal de Santa Maria foi transformado em um banco de dados horários estimados de T e UR e foram obtidos os valores de severidade calculada (VSC) pelo sistema Blitecast em 14 datas de plantio da batata em 43 anos agrícolas. A estação meteorológica automática de Santa Maria, RS, pertencente ao INMET, apresenta 90,1% dos dias sem falhas de registros de dados em 10 anos, de 2002 a 2011. A temperatura mínima diária do ar em Santa Maria ocorreu com maior frequência às 09 h UTC, correspondendo às 06 h no horário oficial local, nos meses de setembro a fevereiro. De março até agosto, esse horário é atrasado, sendo a sua ocorrência mais frequente às 10 h UTC. A precisão das estimativas variou de 0,7 oC a 1,5 oC, com desvio médio de até 0,65oC para T do ar e de 0,7 % a 1,2 %, com desvio médio de até 4 %, para UR, dependendo do horário. Cultivos de batata no período de safrinha necessitam, em média, de um número 54 % maior de aplicações de fungicida em relação ao período de safra. Na safra o número mais provável de pulverizações oscila entre duas e quatro e na safrinha entre seis e sete. Plantios de batata realizados em agosto e em março exigiram um menor custo econômico, ecológico e de saúde do produtor na proteção da cultura contra a requeima do que plantios mais precoces (julho e fevereiro).