京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23151号 / 工博第4795号 / 新制||工||1750(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 澤田 純男, 教授 清野 純史, 准教授 後藤 浩之 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Tee present research focuses on seismic hazard studies for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in the North-East India with taking into account the complex sesismotectonic characteristics of the region. This area is more prone to earthquake hazard due to complex subsurface geology, peculiar topographical distribution, continuous crustal deformation due to the under thrusting of Indian and the Eurasian plates, a possible seismic gap, and many active intraplate sources identified within this region. The study area encompasses major seismic source zones such as Indo Burmese Range (IBR), Shillong Plateau (SP), Eastern Himalayan arc (EH), Bengal Basin (BB), Mishmi Thrust (MT) and Naga Thrust (NT). Five historical earthquakes of magnitude Mw>8 have been listed in the study area and 15 events of magnitude Mw>7 have occurred in last 100 years. Indian seismic code BIS-1893-2002 places the study area with a high level of seismic hazard in the country (i.e. seismic zone V). More than 60% of the area is hilly steep-terrain in nature and the altitude varies from 0 to 3000 meters. Recent works have located a seismic gap, known as the Assam gap since 1950 between the EH, SP, and IBR with the Eurasian plate. Various researchers have estimated the return period, and a large size earthquake is expected in this region any time in future. The area is also highly prone to liquefaction, since rivers in Tripura (Gomati, Howrah, Dhalai, Manu, Bijay, Jeri, Feni) and the rivers in Mizoram (Chhimtuipui, Tlawng, Tut, Tuirial and Tuivawl etc.) are scattered throughout the study area where soil deposits are of sedimentary type. In 2011, both the states together have experienced 37 earthquakes (including foreshocks and aftershocks) with magnitudes ranging from 2.9 to 6.9. Of these events, there were 23 earthquakes (M>4) of magnitudes M6.4 (Feb 4th 2011), M6.7 (March 24th 2011), M6.9 (Sept.18th 2011), M6.4 (October 30th 2011), M6.9 (Dec 13th 2011), M5.8 (Nov 21st 2011), M5 (Aug 18th 2011), M4.9 (July 28th 2011), M4.6 (Dec 15th 2011), M4.6 (Jan 21st 2011), M4.5 (Dec 9th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 21th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 17th 2011), M4.5 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.3 (Oct 10th 2011), M4.3 (Sept 22nd 2011), M4.3 (April 4th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 9th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.1 (April 29th 2011), M4.1 (Feb 22nd 2011), M4 (June 9th 2011), and M4 (Dec 2nd 2011) which occurred within this region [source: IMD (Indian Metrological Department), India]. The earthquake (M6.9) that occurred on Sept. 18th 2011 is known as the Sikkim earthquake, and it caused immense destruction including building collapse, landslides, causalities, disrupted connectivity by road damages and other infrastructural damages in Sikkim state as well as the entire North-East India. In the cities of Agartala and Aizawl of Tripura and Mizoram, construction of high rise building is highly restricted by the Government. Being the capital city, many modern infrastructures are still pending for growth of the city planning. Although many researchers have studied and reported about the status of seismicity in North-East Region of India, very few detailed studies have been carried out in this region except Guwahati, Sikkim and Manipur where almost the whole of the study area is highly vulnerable to severe shaking, amplification, liquefaction, and landslide. From the available literature, no specific study exists for Tripura and Mizoram till date. In the present research, seismic hazard assessment has been performed based on spatial-temporal distribution of seismicity and fault rupture characteristics of the region. The seismic events were collected from regions covering about 500 km from the political boundary of the study area. The earthquake data were collected from various national and international seismological agencies such as the IMD, Geological Survey of India (GSI), United State Geological Survey (USGS), and International Seismological Centre (ISC) etc. As the collected events were in different magnitude scales, all the events were homogenized to a unified moment magnitude scale using recent magnitude conversion relations (region specific) developed by the authors for North-East Region of India. The dependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks) were removed using declustering algorithm and in total 3251 declustered events (main shocks) were identified in the study area since 1731 to 2011. The data set contains 825 events of MW < 4, 1279 events of MW from 4 to 4.9, 996 events MW from 5 to 5.9, 131 events MW from 6 to 6.9, 15 events MW from 7 to 7.9 and 5 events MW ≥8. The statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness (Stepp, 1972). The whole region was divided into six seismic source zones based on the updated seismicity characteristics, fault rupture mechanism, size of earthquake magnitude and the epicentral depth. Separate catalogs were used for each zone, and seismicity parameters a and b were estimated for each source zone and other necessary parameters such as mean magnitude (Mmean), Mmax, Mmin, Mc and recurrence periods were also estimated. Toposheets/vector maps of the study area were collected and seismic sources were identified and characterized as line, point, and areal sources. Linear seismic sources were identified from the Seismotectonic atlas (SEISAT, 2000) published by the GSI, in addition to the source details collected from available literature and remote sensing images. The SEISAT map contains 43 maps presented in 42 sheets covering entire India and adjacent countries with 1:1million scale. Sheets representing the features of the study area were scanned, digitized and georeferenced using MapInfo 10.0 version. After this, tectonic features and seismicity events were superimposed on the map of the study area to prepare a Seismotectonic Map with a scale of 1:1million. In seismic hazard assessment, a state of art well known methodologies (deterministic and probabilistic) was used. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) procedure, hazard assessment is based on the minimum distance between sources to site considering the maximum magnitude occurred at each source. In hazard estimation procedure a lot of uncertainties are involved, which can be explained by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) procedure related to the source, magnitude, distance, and local site conditions. The attenuation relations proposed by Atkinson and Boore (2003), and Gupta (2010) are used in this analysis. Because in this region two type activities are mostly observed, regions such as SP, and EH are under plate boundary zone whereas IBR is under subduction process. These equations (GMPEs) were validated with the observed PGA (Peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. The hazard curves for all six major sources were prepared and compiled to get the total hazard curve which represents the cumulative hazard of all sources. Evaluation of PGA, Sa (0.2s and 1.0s) parameters at bedrock level were estimated considering a grid size of 5 km x 5 km, and spectral acceleration values corresponding to a certain level of probability (2% and 10%) were done to develop uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) for both the cities (Agartala and Aizawl). To carry out the seismic microzonation of Agartala and Aizawl cities, a detailed study using geotechnical and geophysical data has been carried out for site characterization and evaluation of site response according to NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazard Response Program) soil classifications (A, B, C, D, and E-type). Seismic site characterization, which is the basic requirement for seismic microzonation and site response studies of an area. Site characterization helps to have the idea about the average dynamic behavior of soil deposits, and thus helps to evaluate the surface level response. A series of geophysical tests at selected locations have been conducted using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) technique, which is an advanced method to obtain direct shear wave velocity profiles from in situ measurements for both the cities. Based on the present study a major part of Agartala city falls under site class D, very few portions come under site class E. On the other hand, Aizawl city comes under site class C. Next, a detailed site response analysis has been carried out for both the cities. This study addresses the influence of local geology and soil conditions on incoming ground motion. Subsurface geotechnical (SPT) and geophysical (MASW) data have been obtained and used to estimate surface level response. The vulnerable seismic source has been identified based on DSHA. Due to the lack of strong motion time history of the study area, synthetic ground motion time histories have been generated using point source seismological model (Boore 2003) at bedrock level based on fault rupture parameters such as stress drop, quality factor, frequency range, magnitude, hypocentral distance etc. Dynamic properties such as the shear modulus (G) and damping ratios (ζ) have been evaluated from the soil properties obtained from SPT bore log data collected from different agencies such as PWD (Public works Department), and Urban Development Dept. of the State Government, in situ shear wave velocity has been obtained from MASW survey in different locations, and following this, a site response analysis has been carried out using SHAKE-2000 to calculate the responses at the ground surface in combination of different magnitudes, distances and epicentral depth for a particular site class. An amplification factor was estimated as the ratio of the PGA at the ground surface to the PGA at bedrock level, a regression analysis was carried out to evaluate period dependant site coefficients, and hence, the period dependant hazard impact on the ground surface could be calculated to obtain the spatial variation of PGA over the study area. Further, liquefaction potential of the site (Agartala) was also evaluated using available SPT bore log data collected and using presently estimated surface level PGA. The results are presented in the form of liquefaction hazard map representing as a Factor of safety (FS) against liquefaction with various depths such as 1.5m, 10m, and 15m respectively. It has been seen that Agartala city shows highly prone to liquefaction even up to 15 m depth. Hence, site specific study is highly recommended for implementing any important project. The liquefaction hazard assessment could not be conducted for the Aizawl city because of non availability of the SPT-N data, however, the city stands on hills/mountains, and therefore, such a study is not applicable in this area. Further, seismic microzonation maps for both the cities have been prepared considering Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) which support to the Eigen value properties of the system. Two types of hazard maps have been developed, one using deterministic and another using the probabilistic seismic microzonation maps. These maps can be directly used as inputs for earthquake resistant design, and disaster mitigation planning of the study area. However, an investigation has also been made in forecasting a major earthquake (Mw>6) in North-East India using several probabilistic models such as Gamma, Weibull and lognormal models. IBR and EH show a high probability of occurrences in the next 5 years (i.e. 2013-2018) with >90% probability.

The San Andreas Fault stretches for over 800 miles through California. Along the foothills of the San Bernardino Mountains, areas in close proximity to the San Andreas Fault Zone may be subject to site amplification of ground motion caused by seismic activity via wave propagation through the subsurface. These seismic hazards are being addressed via the Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Faulting Zone Act and the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). Shear wave velocity of the subsurface has served as a proxy for ground motion amplification and is therefore a useful parameter to help analyze and reduce seismic hazards. Low shear wave velocities of the subsurface have been known to correlate with higher amplitude ground motion. This study focuses on refraction microtremor analysis (ReMi) of the subsurface in Northern San Bernardino; more specifically, areas encompassing California State University San Bernardino, in close proximity to the San Andreas Fault. The technique will resolve shear wave velocity values for the top 30 meters (Vs30) of the subsurface. This depth of investigation has proven to be an effective means in determining subsurface conditions. ReMi profiles were situated 0.25 to 2.0 miles away from the San Andreas Fault, and in some instances, strategically positioned next to housing developments and structures. Phase velocity dispersion curves were generated by processing ReMi seismic data and subsequently inverted to attain average shear wave velocity profiles with depth. The geologic units in the study area consist of very young wash deposits, young alluvial fan deposits and Pelonist schist deposits. These geologic units may be an indicator to how seismic waves behave in subsurface lithology. To highlight differences in Vs30 values across the project area, a microzonation map was constructed.

Niksar (Tokat), is an urban area located in a seismically active zone of Turkey. The aim of this thesis is to prepare GIS-based microzonation map of Niksar settlement area for the purpose of urban planning. Liquefaction, activity, slope, aspect, fault proximity, ground amplification and lithology are considered during the overlay analysis by using Multicriteria Decision Making Analysis (MCDA) of Simple Additive Weighing (SAW) and Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) methods. Based on the evaluations, the study area is divided into four different zones, namely, (1) areas suitable for settlement / (2) provisional settlement areas / (3) areas requiring detailed geotechnical investigation / (4) unsuitable areas. Two microzonation maps obtained from analyses are compared. Maps prepared by SAW and AHP methods are found to be consistent with each other. However, the microzonation map prepared by AHP method is recommended for the purpose of urban planning because it has the ability to check consistency itself.

The purpose of this study is to develop a geotechnical microzonation model regarding the suitability of the residential areas in Yenisehir (Bursa, Turkey), which is a currently developing settlement area in a seismically active region. For this purpose, soil properties and dynamic soil behaviors of the study area were assessed. Soil classification, soil amplification, natural soil predominant period, resonance phenomena and liquefaction potential of the study area were evaluated using borehole data and microtremor measurements. The raw data obtained from the previous studies carried out at Yenisehir were used for these assessments. The liquefaction potential for the study area was evaluated both in two-dimensional planimetric and three-dimensional volumetric assessments. Two geotechnical microzonation maps were produced for the study area according to the surface damage due to liquefaction (according to two different methods), soil amplification and distance to streams maps / by using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. The weight values were assigned to the layers using Analytical Hierarchical Process method by pairwise comparisons. Evaluating geotechnical microzonation maps produced, the safest areas were found on the northern sites of the study area. The most critical areas were found to be in the middle and the southeast parts of the study area.

The purpose of this study is to prepare a geotechnical microzonation map regarding the suitability of the residential areas in EskiSehir downtown area. In order to obtain the microzonation map, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is used. For this analysis, the slope, flood susceptibility, soil, depth to groundwater table, swelling potential and liquefaction potential layers are prepared. The weight values to the layers and rank values to the classes of each layer are assigned by applying Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) methods. Two geotechnical microzonation maps are obtained as outputs of these methods. The study area is categorized into three different zones regarding the foundation suitability of residential areas as: (1) Areas suitable for settlement / (2) Provisional settlement areas / (3) Areas requiring detailed geotechnical investigations. The maps prepared using SAW and AHP methods are found to be consistent with each other. The geotechnical microzonation map prepared using AHP method is recommended as the final map of the study area.

Mankind is facing the problem due to earthquake hazard since prehistoric times. Many of the developed and developing countries are under constant threats from earthquakes hazards. Theories of plate tectonics and engineering seismology have helped to understand earthquakes and also to predicate earthquake hazards on a regional scale. However, the regional scale hazard mapping in terms of seismic zonation has been not fully implemented in many of the developing countries like India. Agglomerations of large population in the Indian cities and poor constructions have raised the risk due to various possible seismic hazards. First and foremost step towards hazard reduction is estimation of the seismic hazards in regional scale. Objective of this study is to estimate the seismic hazard parameters for Lucknow, a part of Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) and develop regional scale microzonation map. Lucknow is a highly populated city which is located close to the active seismic belt of Himalaya. This belt came into existence during the Cenozoic era (40-50 million years ago) and is a constant source of seismic threats. Many of the devastating earthquakes which have happened since prehistoric times such as 1255 Nepal, 1555 Srinagar, 1737 Kolkata, 1803 Nepal, 1833 Kathmandu, 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, 1950 Assam and 2005 Kashmir. Historic evidences show that many of these earthquakes had caused fatalities even up to 0.1 million. At present, in the light of building up strains and non-occurrence of a great event in between 1905 Kangra earthquake and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake regions the stretch has been highlighted as central seismic gap. This location may have high potential of great earthquakes in the near future. Geodetic studies in these locations indicate a possible slip of 9.5 m which may cause an event of magnitude 8.7 on Richter scale in the central seismic gap. Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh has a population of 2.8 million as per Census 2011. It lies in ZONE III as per IS1893: 2002 and can be called as moderate seismic region. However, the city falls within 350 km radial distance from Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and active regional seismic source of the Lucknow-Faizabad fault. Considering the ongoing seismicity of Himalayan region and the Lucknow-Faizabad fault, this city is under high seismic threat. Hence a comprehensive study of understanding the earthquake hazards on a regional scale for the Lucknow is needed. In this work the seismic microzonation of Lucknow has been attempted. The whole thesis is divided into 11 chapters. A detailed discussion on the importance of this study, seismicity of Lucknow, and methodology adopted for detailed seismic hazard assessment and microzonation are presented in first three chapters. Development of region specific Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) and seismic hazard estimation at bedrock level using highly ranked GMPEs are presented in Chapters 4 and 5 respectively. Subsurface lithology, measurement of dynamic soil properties and correlations are essential to assess region specific site effects and liquefaction potential. Discussion on the experimental studies, subsurface profiling using geotechnical and geophysical tests results and correlation between shear wave velocity (SWV) and standard penetration test (SPT) N values are presented in Chapter 6. Detailed shear wave velocity profiling with seismic site classification and ground response parameters considering multiple ground motion data are discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. Chapters 9 and 10 present the assessment of liquefaction potential and determination of hazard index with microzonation maps respectively. Conclusions derived from each chapter are presented in Chapter 11. A brief summary of the work is presented below: Attenuation relations or GMPEs are important component of any seismic hazard analysis which controls accurate prediction of the hazard values. Even though the Himalayas have experienced great earthquakes since ancient times, suitable GMPEs which are applicable for a wide range of distance and magnitude are limited. Most of the available regional GMPEs were developed considering limited recorded data and/or pure synthetic ground motion data. This chapter presents development of a regional GMPE considering both the recorded as well as synthetic ground motions. In total 14 earthquakes consisting of 10 events with recorded data and 4 historic events with Isoseismal maps are used for the same. Synthetic ground motions based on finite fault model have been generated at unavailable locations for recorded events and complete range distances for historic earthquakes. Model parameters for synthetic ground motion were arrived by detailed parametric study and from literatures. A concept of Apparent Stations (AS) has been used to generate synthetic ground motion in a wide range of distance as well as direction around the epicenter. Synthetic ground motion data is validated by comparing with available recorded data and peak ground acceleration (PGA) from Isoseismal maps. A new GMPE has been developed based on two step stratified regression procedure considering the combined dataset of recorded and synthetic ground motions. The new GMPE is validated by comparing with three recently recorded earthquakes events. GMPE proposed in this study is capable of predicting PGA values close to recorded data and spectral acceleration up to period of 2 seconds. Comparison of new GMPE with the recorded data of recent earthquakes shows a good matching of ground motion as well as response spectra. The new GMPE is applicable for wide range of earthquake magnitudes from 5 to 9 on Mw scale. Reduction of future earthquake hazard is possible if hazard values are predicted precisely. A detailed seismic hazard analysis is carried out in this study considering deterministic and probabilistic approaches. New seismotectonic map has been generated for Lucknow considering a radial distance of 350 km around the city centre, which also covers active Himalayan plate boundaries. Past earthquakes within the seismotectonic region have been collected from United State Geological Survey (USGS), Northern California Earthquake Data Centre (NCEDC), Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Seismic Atlas of India and its Environs (SEISAT) etc. A total of 1831 events with all the magnitude range were obtained. Collected events were homogenized, declustered and filtered for Mw ≥ 4 events. A total of 496 events were found within the seismic study region. Well delineated seismic sources are compiled from SEISAT. Superimposing the earthquake catalogue on the source map, a seismotectonic map of Lucknow was generated. A total of 47 faults which have experienced earthquake magnitude of 4 and above are found which are used for seismic hazard analysis. Based on the distribution of earthquake events on the seismotectonic map, two regions have been identified. Region I which shows high density of seismic events in the area in and around of Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and Region II which consists of area surrounding Lucknow with sparse distribution of earthquake events. Data completeness analysis and estimation of seismic parameter “a” and “b” are carried out separately for both the regions. Based on the analysis, available earthquake data is complete for a period of 80 years in both the regions. Using the complete data set, the regional recurrence relations have been developed. It shows a “b” value of 0.86 for region I and 0.9 for Region II which are found comparable with earlier studies. Maximum possible earthquake magnitude in each source has been estimated using observed magnitude and doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation. The study area of Lucknow is divided into 0.015o x 0.015o grid size and PGA at each grid has been estimated by considering all sources and the three GMPEs. A Matlab code was generated for seismic hazard analysis and maximum PGA value at each grid point was determined and mapped. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) shows that maximum expected PGA values at bedrock level varies from 0.05g in the eastern part to 0.13g in the northern region. Response spectrum at city centre is also developed up to a period of 2 seconds. Further, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out and PGA values for 10 % and 2 % probability of exceedence in 50 years have been estimated and mapped. PSHA for 10 % probability shows PGA variation from 0.035g in the eastern parts to 0.07g in the western and northern parts of Lucknow. Similarly PSHA for 2 % probability of exceedence indicates PGA variation from 0.07g in the eastern parts while the northern parts are expecting PGA of 0.13g. Uniform hazard spectra are also developed for 2 % and 10 % probability for a period of up to 2 seconds. The seismic hazard analyses in this study show that the northern and western parts of Lucknow are more vulnerable when compared to other part. Bedrock hazard values completely change due to subsoil properties when it reaches the surface. A detailed geophysical and geotechnical investigation has been carried out for subsoil profiling and seismic site classification. The study area has been divided into grids of 2 km x 2 km and roughly one geophysical test using MASW (Multichannel Analysis Surface Wave) has been carried out in each grid and the shear wave velocity (SWV) profiles of subsoil layers are obtained. A total of 47 MASW tests have been carried out and which are uniformly distributed in Lucknow. In addition, 12 boreholes have also been drilled with necessary sampling and measurement of N-SPT values at 1.5 m interval till a depth of 30 m. Further, 11 more borelog reports are collected from the same agency hired for drilling the boreholes. Necessary laboratory tests are conducted on disturbed and undisturbed soil samples for soil classification and density measurement. Based on the subsoil informations obtained from these boreholes, two cross-sections up to a depth of 30 m have been generated. These cross-sections show the presence of silty sand in the top 10 m at most of the locations followed by clayey sand of low to medium compressibility till a depth of 30 m. In between the sand and clay traces of silt were also been found in many locations. In addition to these boreholes, 20 deeper boreholes (depth ≥150 m) are collected from Jal Nigam (Water Corporation) Lucknow, Government of Uttar Pradesh. Typical cross-section along the alignment of these deeper boreholes has been generated up to 150 m depth. This cross-section shows the presence of fine sand near Gomati while other locations are occupied by surface clayey sand. Also, the medium sand has been found in the western part of the city at a depth of 110 m which continues till 150 m depth. On careful examination of MASW and boreholes with N-SPT, 17 locations are found very close and SWV and N-SPT values are available up to 30 m depth. These SWV and N-SPT values are complied and used to develop correlations between SWV and N-SPT for sandy soil, clayey soil and all soil types. This correlation is the first correlation for IGB soil deposits considered measured data up to 30 m. The new correlation is verified graphically using normal consistency ratio and standard percentage error with respect to measured N-SPT and SWV. Further, SWV and N-SPT profiles are used Another important earthquake induced hazard is liquefaction. Even though many historic earthquakes caused liquefaction in India, very limited attempt has been made to map liquefaction potential in IGB. In this study, a detailed liquefaction analysis has been carried out for Lucknow a part of Ganga Basin to map liquefaction potential. Initially susceptibility of liquefaction for soil deposits has been assessed by comparing the grain size distribution curve obtained from laboratory tests with the range of grain size distribution for potentially liquefiable soils. Most of surface soil deposits in the study area are susceptible to liquefaction. At all the 23 borehole locations, measured N-SPT values are corrected for (a) Overburden Pressure (CN), (b) Hammer energy (CE), (c) Borehole diameter (CB), (d) presence or absence of liner (CS), (e) Rod length (CR) and (f) fines content (Cfines). Surface PGA values at each borehole locations are used to estimate Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR). Corrected N-SPT values [(N1)60CS] are used to estimate Cyclic Resistance Ratio (CRR) at each layer. CSR and CRR values are used to estimate Factor of Safety (FOS) against liquefaction in each layer. Least factor safety values are indentified from each location and presented liquefaction factor of safety map for average and maximum amplified PGA values. These maps highlight that northern, western and central parts of Lucknow are very critical to critical against liquefaction while southern parts shows moderate to low critical area. The entire alignment of river Gomati falls in very critical to critical regions for liquefaction. Least FOS shows worst scenario and does not account thickness of liquefiable soil layers. Further, these FOS values are used to determine Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) of each site and developed LPI map. Based on LPI map, the Gomati is found as high to very high liquefaction potential region. Southern and the central parts of Lucknow show low to moderate liquefaction potential while the northern and western Lucknow has moderate to high liquefaction potential. All possible seismic hazards maps for Lucknow have been combined to develop final microzonation map in terms of hazard index values. Hazard index maps are prepared by combining rock PGA map, site classification map in terms of shear wave velocity, amplification factor map, and FOS map and predominant period map by adopting Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). All these parameters have been given here in the order starting with maximum weight of 6 for PGA to lower weight of 1 for predominant frequency. Normalized weights of each parameter have been estimated. Depending upon the variation of each hazard parameter values, three to five ranks are assigned and the normalized ranks are calculated. Final hazard index values have been estimated by multiplying normalized ranks of each parameter with the normalized weights. Microzonation map has been generated by mapping hazard index values. Three maps were generated based on DSHA, PSHA for 2% and 10 % probability of exceedence in 50 years. Hazard index maps from DSHA and PSHA for 2 % probability show similar pattern. Higher hazard index were obtained in northern and western parts of Lucknow and lower values in others. The new microzonation maps can help in dividing the Lucknow into three parts as high area i.e. North western part, moderate hazard area i.e. central part and low hazard area which covers southern and eastern parts of Lucknow. This microzonation is different from the current seismic code where all area is lumped in one zone without detailed assessment of different earthquake hazard parameters. Finally this study brings out first region specific GMPE considering recorded and synthetic ground monitions for wide range of magnitudes and distances. Proposed GMPE can also be used in other part of the Himalayan region as it matches well with the highly ranked GMPEs. Detailed rock level PGA map has been generated for Lucknow considering DSHA and PSHA. A detailed geotechnical and geophysical experiments are carried out in Lucknow. These results are used to develop correction between SWV and N-SPT values for soil deposit in IGB and site classification maps for the study area. Amplification and liquefaction potential of Lucknow are estimated by considering multiple ground motions data to account different earthquake ground motion amplitude, duration and frequency, which is unique in the seismic microzonation study.

Turkey is one of the most earthquake prone countries in the world. The study area, Erbaa, is located in a seismically active fault zone known as North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Erbaa is one of the towns of Tokat located in the Middle Black Sea Region. According to the Earthquake zoning map of Turkey, the study area is in the First Degree Earthquake Zone. The city center of Erbaa (Tokat) was previously settled on the left embankment of Kelkit River. After the disastrous 1942 Niksar-Erbaa earthquake (Mw = 7.2), the settlement was moved southwards. From the period of 1900s, several earthquakes occurred in this region and around Erbaa. The 1942 earthquake is the most destructive earthquake in the center of Erbaa settlement. In this study, the geological and geotechnical properties of the study area were investigated by detailed site investigations. The Erbaa settlement is located on alluvial and Pliocene deposits. The Pliocene clay, silt, sand, and gravel layers exist in the southern part of Erbaa. Alluvium in Erbaa region consists of gravelly, sandy, silty, and clayey layers. The alluvial deposits are composed of stratified materials of heterogeneous grain sizes, derived from various geological units in the vicinity. The main objective of this study is to prepare a seismic microzonation map of the study area for urban planning purposes since it is getting more essential to plan new settlements considering safe development strategies after the disastrous earthquakes. In this respect, seismic hazard analyses were performed to deterministically assess the seismic hazard of the study area. Afterwards, the essential ground motions were predicted regarding near fault effects as the study area is settled on an active fault zone. 1-D equivalent linear site response analyses were carried out to evaluate the site effects in the study area. Amplification values obtained from site response analyses reveal that the soil layers in the study area is quite rigid. Furthermore, liquefaction potential and post liquefaction effects including lateral spreading and vertical settlement were also delineated for the study area. The above-mentioned parameters were taken into account in order to prepare a final seismic microzonation map of the study area. The layers were evaluated on the basis of overlay methodologies including Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Two different MCDA techniques, Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), were carried out in GIS environment. The seismic microzonation maps prepared by SAW and AHP methods are compared to obtain a final seismic microzonation map. Finally, the map derived from the AHP method is proposed to be the final seismic microzonation map of Erbaa. As an overall conclusion, the northwestern part of the study area where the loose alluvial units exist is found to be vulnerable to earthquake-induced deformations. On the other hand, the Pliocene units in the southern and alluvial units in the northeastern part are quite resistant to earthquake effects. In addition, the proposed final seismic microzonation map should be considered by urban planners and policy makers during urban planning projects in Erbaa.

Seismic hazard and microzonation of cities enable to characterize the potential seismic areas that need to be taken into account when designing new structures or retrofitting the existing ones. Study of seismic hazard and preparation of geotechnical microzonation maps will provide an effective solution for city planning and input to earthquake resistant design of structures in an area. Seismic hazard is the study of expected earthquake ground motions at any point on the earth. Microzonation is the process of sub division of region in to number of zones based on the earthquake effects in the local scale. Seismic microzonation is the process of estimating response of soil layers under earthquake excitation and thus the variation of ground motion characteristic on the ground surface. Geotechnical site characterization and assessment of site response during earthquakes is one of the crucial phases of seismic microzonation with respect to ground shaking intensity, attenuation, amplification rating and liquefaction susceptibility. Microzonation mapping of seismic hazards can be expressed in relative or absolute terms, on an urban block-by-block scale, based on local soil conditions (such as soil types) that affect ground shaking levels or vulnerability to soil liquefaction. Such maps would provide general guidelines for integrated planning of cities and in positioning the types of new structures that are most suited to an area, along with information on the relative damage potential of the existing structures in a region. In the present study an attempt has been made to characterize the site and to study the seismic hazard analysis considering the local site effects and to develop microzonation maps for Bangalore. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of Bangalore is addressed in this study in three parts: In the first part, estimation of seismic hazard using seismotectonic and geological information. Second part deals about site characterization using geotechnical and shallow geophysical techniques. An area of 220 sq.km, encompassing Bangalore Municipal Corporation has been chosen as the study area in this part of the investigation. There were over 150 lakes, though most of them are dried up due to erosion and encroachments leaving only 64 at present in an area of 220 sq. km and emphasizing the need to study site effects. In the last part, local site effects are assessed by carrying out one-dimensional (1-D) ground response analysis (using the program SHAKE 2000) using both borehole SPT data and shear wave velocity survey data within an area of 220 sq. km. Further, field experiments using microtremor studies have also been carried out (jointly with NGRI) for evaluation of predominant frequency of the soil columns. The same has been assessed using 1-D ground response analysis and compared with microtremor results. Further, Seed and Idriss simplified approach has been adopted to evaluate the liquefaction susceptibility and liquefaction resistance assessment. Microzonation maps have been prepared for Bangalore city covering 220 sq. km area on a scale of 1:20000. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) for Bangalore has been carried out by considering the past earthquakes, assumed subsurface fault rupture lengths and point source synthetic ground motion model. The seismic sources for region have been collected by considering seismotectonic atlas map of India and lineaments identified from satellite remote sensing images. Analysis of lineaments and faults help in understanding the regional seismotectonic activity of the area. Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) has been determined by considering the regional seismotectonic activity in about 350 km radius around Bangalore. Earthquake data are collected from United State Geological Survey (USGS), Indian Metrological Department (IMD), New Delhi; Geological Survey of India (GSI) and Amateur Seismic Centre (ASC), National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI),Hyderabad; Centre for Earth Science Studies (CESS), Akkulam, Kerala; Gauribindanur (GB) Seismic station and other public domain sites. Source magnitude for each source is chosen from the maximum reported past earthquake close to that source and shortest distance from each source to Bangalore is arrived from the newly prepared seismotectonic map of the area. Using these details, and, attenuation relation developed for southern India by Iyengar and Raghukanth (2004), the peak ground acceleration (PGA) has been estimated. A parametric study has been carried out to find fault subsurface rupture length using past earthquake data and Wells and Coppersmith (1994) relation between the subsurface lengths versus earthquake magnitudes. Further seismological model developed by Boore (1983, 2003) SMSIM program has been used to generate synthetic ground motions from vulnerable sources identified in above two methods. From the above three approaches maximum PGA of 0.15g was estimated for Bangalore. This value was obtained for a maximum credible earthquake (MCE) having a moment magnitude of 5.1 from a source of Mandya-Channapatna-Bangalore lineament. Considering this lineament and MCE, a synthetic ground motion has been generated for 850 borehole locations and they are used to prepare PGA map at rock level. The past seismic data has been collected for almost 200 years from different sources such as IMD, BARC (Gauribidanur array), NGRI, CESS, ASC center, USGS, and other public domain data. The seismic data is seen to be homogenous for the last four decades irrespective of the magnitude. Seismic parameters were then evaluated using the data corresponding to the last four decades and also the mixed data (using Kijko’s analysis) for Bangalore region, which are found to be comparable with the earlier reported seismic parameters for south India. The probabilities of distance, magnitude and peak ground acceleration have been evaluated for the six most vulnerable sources using PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis). The mean annual rate of exceedance has been calculated for all the six sources at the rock level. The cumulative probability hazard curves have been generated at the bedrock level for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration. The spectral acceleration calculation corresponding to a period of 1sec and 5% damping are evaluated. For the design of structures, uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is developed for the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are comparable to the PGA values obtained in deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and higher than Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et.al (1997) for the Indian shield area. The 3-D subsurface model with geotechnical data has been generated for site characterization of Bangalore. The base map of Bangalore city (220sq.km) with several layers of information (such as Outer and Administrative boundaries, Contours, Highways, Major roads, Minor roads, Streets, Rail roads, Water bodies, Drains, Landmarks and Borehole locations) has been generated. GIS database for collating and synthesizing geotechnical data available with different sources and 3-dimensional view of soil stratum presenting various geotechnical parameters with depth in appropriate format has been developed. In the context of prediction of reduced level of rock (called as “engineering rock depth” corresponding to about Vs > 700 m/sec) in the subsurface of Bangalore and their spatial variability evaluated using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Observed SPT ‘N’ values are corrected by applying necessary corrections, which can be used for engineering studies such as site response and liquefaction analysis. Site characterization has also been carried out using measured shear wave velocity with the help of shear wave velocity survey using MASW. MASW (Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave) is a geophysical method, which generates a shear-wave velocity (Vs) profile (i.e., Vs versus depth) by analyzing Raleigh-type surface waves on a multichannel record. MASW system consisting of 24 channels Geode seismograph with 24 geophones of 4.5 Hz capacity were used in this investigation. The shear wave velocity of Bangalore subsurface soil has been measured and correlation has been developed for shear wave velocity (Vs) with the standard penetration tests (SPT) corrected ‘N’ values. About 58 one-dimensional (1-D) MASW surveys and 20 two-dimensional (2-D) MASW surveys has been carried out with in 220 sq.km Bangalore urban area. Dispersion curves and shear velocity 1-D and 2-D have been evaluated using SurfSeis software. Using 1-dimensional shear wave velocity, the average shear wave velocity of Bangalore soil has been evaluated for depths of 5m, 10m, 15m, 20m, 25m and 30m (Vs30) depths. The sub soil classification has been carried out for local site effect evaluation based on average shear wave velocity of 30m depth (Vs30) of sites using NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazard Research Programme) and IBC (International Building Code) classification. Bangalore falls into site class D type of soil. Mapping clearly indicates that the depth of soil obtained from MASW is closely matching with the soil layers in the bore logs. The measured shear wave velocity at 38 locations close to SPT boreholes, which are used to generate the correlation between the shear wave velocity and corrected ‘N’ values using a power fit. Also, developed relationship between shear wave velocity and corrected ‘N’ values corresponds well with the published relationships of Japan Road Association. Bangalore city, a fast growing urban center, with low to moderate earthquake history and highly altered soil structure (due to large reclamation of land) is been the focus of this work. There were over 150 lakes, though most of them are dried up due to erosion and encroachments leaving only 64 at present in an area of 220 sq km. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess the site response using geotechnical, geophysical data and field studies. The subsurface profiles of the study area within 220sq.km area was represented by 170 geotechnical bore logs and 58 shear wave velocity profiles obtained by MASW survey. The data from these geotechnical and geophysical technique have been used to study the site response. These soil properties and synthetic ground motions for each borehole locations are further used to study the local site effects by conducting one-dimensional ground response analysis using the program SHAKE2000. The response and amplification spectrum have been evaluated for each layer of borehole location. The natural period of the soil column, peak spectral acceleration and frequency at peak spectral acceleration of each borehole has been evaluated and presented as maps. Predominant frequency obtained from both methods is compared; the correlation between corrected SPT ‘N’ value and low strain shear modulus has been generated. The noise was recorded at 54 different locations in 220sq.km area of Bangalore city using L4-3D short period sensors (CMG3T) equipped with digital data acquisition system. Predominant frequency obtained from ground response studies and microtremor measurement is comparable. To study the liquefaction hazard in Bangalore, the liquefaction hazard assessment has been carried out using standard penetration test (SPT) data and soil properties. Factor of Safety against liquefaction of soil layer has been evaluated based on the simplified procedure of Seed and Idriss (1971) and subsequent revisions of Seed et al (1983, 1985), Youd et al (2001) and Cetin et al (2004). Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR) resulting from earthquake loading is calculated by considering moment magnitude of 5.1 and amplified peak ground acceleration. Cyclic Resistant Ratio (CRR) is arrived using the corrected SPT ‘N’ values and soil properties. Factor of safety against liquefaction is calculated using stress ratios and accounting necessary magnitude scaling factor for maximum credible earthquake. A simple spread sheet was developed to carryout the calculation for each bore log. The factor of safety against liquefaction is grouped together for the purpose of classification of Bangalore (220 sq. km) area for a liquefaction hazards. Using 2-D base map of Bangalore city, the liquefaction hazard map was prepared using AutoCAD and Arc GIS packages. The results are grouped as four groups for mapping and presented in the form of 2-dimensional maps. Liquefaction possibilities are also assessed conducting laboratory cyclic triaxial test using undisturbed soil samples collected at few locations.

Le Liban n'a pas souffert de grands tremblements de terre destructeurs depuis près de deux siècles. Il est toutefois traversé par la faille transformante majeure du Levant, séparant sur1000 km de longueur la plaque Arabique à l’est de la plaque Africaine à l’ouest. Ses principales branches au Liban sont la faille de Yammouneh qui traverse le pays du sud au nord, les failles de Serghaya et Rachaya dans sa partie Est, la faille de Roum et les failles inverses du Mont Liban dans la partie Ouest. Ces failles ont généré des séismes destructeurs dans la longue histoire connue de la région, parmi lesquels les plus importants sont ceux deJuillet 551 sur la faille du Mont-Liban, de mai 1202 sur la faille de Yammouneh, d’Octobre1759 sur la faille de Rachaya et de Novembre 1759 sur la faille de Serghaya. L'évaluation del'aléa et du risque sismique local est donc de première importance pour l'ensemble du pays.L'objectif du travail effectué dans cette thèse est d'appliquer au Liban les avancées réalisées ces dernières années dans le développement de nouveaux outils à la fois fiables et économiquement abordables pour l’évaluation de l’aléa sismique, en commençant par les grandes villes et en particulier la capitale Beyrouth. L'objectif est de mieux appréhender et comprendre le risque sismique sur le territoire libanais, pour pouvoir ensuite commencer à élaborer des politiques de prévention et des codes parasismiques qui puissent le réduire à terme.Un réseau sismologique temporaire composé de 10 stations a été installé dans Beyrouth etune partie de sa banlieue sur des sites représentatifs des principales unités géologiques présentes. Plusieurs dizaines de séismes locaux et régionaux ont pu y être enregistrés, et leur réponse sismique a été évaluée par la méthode du rapport spectral site sur référence (SSR),comparé au rapport spectral de la composante horizontale sur la composante verticale (H/V)calculé sur les tremblements de terre et sur le bruit ambiant. Les mêmes enregistrements ont également été utilisés pour prédire, par la technique des Fonctions de Green empiriques(FGE), le mouvement sismique correspondant à un événement majeur (Mw7.5) sur la faille de Yammouneh. Cet exercice de prédiction a toutefois été réalisé en deux étapes en raison des limitations dans l'application de la technique FGE en champ proche, avec deux techniques complémentaires: l'enregistrement d’un petit événement a été d'abord utilisé pour simuler un séisme de Mw6.5 sur la faille de Yammouneh, en parallèle à l'utilisation de plusieurs équations de prédiction de mouvement du sol (GMPE), soigneusement sélectionnées, pour effectuer une prédiction similaire. La comparaison FGE/GMPE a alors permis de calibrer la prédiction du mouvement du sol par GMPE à différents sites de Beyrouth pour l'événement cible de Mw7.5. Ces résultats ponctuels ont ensuite été étendus à l'ensemble de la municipalité de Beyrouth et de sa banlieue proche, en vue de mieux cerner les contours d'une future carte de microzonage, au travers d'une vaste campagne de mesures de bruit ambiant sur615 sites. Leur traitement H/V a permis d’obtenir une carte de la fréquence de résonance pour l'ensemble de la zone, carte dont la robustesse a été testée et prouvée. Des mesures sismiques actives et passives ont en outre été menées sur les principales unités géologiques à proximité des 10 sites préalablement sélectionnés et instrumentés, permettant ainsi d'obtenir les premières estimations directes de la vitesse des ondes de cisaillement (via les courbes de dispersion des ondes de Rayleigh). La comparaison de ces mesures avec les estimations -très dispersées - issues de la compilation des paramètres géologiques/géotechniques disponibles et des équations de corrélation existantes avec les valeurs N des SPT, montre tout l'intérêt de ces mesures simples et fiables. / Lebanon is one of the countries that have not suffered from large destructive earthquakes foralmost two centuries. It is however lying on the 1000 km long, left lateral Levant fault thatseparates the Arabic plate in the east from the African plate in the west. Its main branches inLebanon are the Yammouneh fault that crosses the country from south to north, the Serghayaand Rachaya faults in its Eastern part, the Roum and Mount Lebanon Thrust faults in itsWestern part. These faults have generated destructive earthquakes in the long known historyof the area. The largest events are: The July 551 earthquake on the Mount Lebanon Thrustfault, the May 1202 earthquake on the Yammouneh fault, the October 1759 on the Rachayafault and the November 1759 on the Serghaya fault. From all above, one can conclude thatLebanon is exposed to a significant seismic hazard. Assessing the local seismic hazard andrisk is therefore of primary importance for the whole country.The objective of the work undergone in this PhD is to take advantage of the latest advancesachieved worldwide to promote rather inexpensive, though reliable, seismic hazardassessment tools, to try to apply them in Lebanon starting with the big cities and specificallythe capital Beirut. These studies will help to understand the Lebanese seismic risk andsubsequently to start to elaborate seismic policies and codes that may help reducing this risk.A temporary seismological network consisting of 10 stations has been installed in Beirut anda part of its suburbs. Several tens of local and regional earthquakes could be recorded, andallowed to estimate the site response at selected sites in Beirut through the standard site toreference spectral ratio method ("SSR") on earthquakes, compared to the horizontal tovertical ratio ("H/V") calculated on earthquakes and on ambient noise. The same recordingscould also be used via the empirical Green Function’s technique ("EGF") to predict theseismic ground motion corresponding to a Mw7.5 on the Yammouneh fault. However, due tolimitations in near-field applications of the EGF technique, this prediction exercise wasperformed in two steps and with two complementary techniques: a weak event recording wasfirst used to simulate a Mw6.5 earthquake on the Yammouneh fault, while several, carefullyselected ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) were used to perform a comparativeprediction for the same earthquake. This EGF/GMPE comparison then allowed tuning theGMPE prediction of ground motion at various sites within Beirut for the target Mw7.5 event.The results were then extended in view of proposing a framework for a future microzonationviimap. A comprehensive campaign of ambient noise measurements was achieved for 615 sitesof Beirut municipality and close suburbs, the H/V processing of which allowed to derive arobust map of resonance frequency for the whole area. In addition, active and passive seismicmeasurements were conducted on different geological units near the 10 formerlyinstrumented sites, which provided quantitative estimates of the shallow S-wave velocitythrough the Rayleigh wave dispersion curves. These geophysical measurements permitted toprovide direct estimates of the shear waves velocity, which prove much more reliable thanthe highly scattered estimates derived from the compilation of the availablegeological/geotechnical parameters and the use of existing correlations equations betweenSPT N-value and S-wave velocity Vs.