For a military organisation capability is a central concept. The definitions vary with different nations and organizations, but here the military capability is defined as the ability of a sociotechnical system to solve military tasks performed under certain circumstances in a set environment. To create new or develop existing military capability, military innovation can be a crucial piece of the puzzle. It might be innovative systems solving tasks in the existing organization or existing technology used in an innovative manner.The aim of this thesis is to create a structure for discussing technology, innovation, and capability in a relevant way, where the capability lifecycle presents an overview of the desired capability when planning for future compositions of technology and units, instead of focusing on the individual systems. Therefore, this work is governed by a thematic aim that at least requires a multidisciplinary research approach which contains different research areas to understand how the technical systems can contribute within its context.To visualise this context, different aspects of the system is here divided into three layers. The technology level represents the technology itself, in this case Maritime Uncrewed Systems, which needs to be understood with its opportunities and limitations. The system also needs to be understood in its sociotechnical layer where the technical system is interacting with people, organization, and other units. The final layer is the governance layer with both the legal and ethical considerations in the use of the technology, in this case, an uncrewed system.The overall conclusion is that capability development is not doing things the same way as before with different technology. It is about trust in the overall system and developing how the available resources, both technical and sociotechnical, can contribute to solving a task as efficiently as possible in an altered organization. / För en militär organisation är förmåga ett centralt begrepp. Definitionerna varierar med olika nationer och organisationer, men här definieras den militära förmågan som förmågan hos ett sociotekniskt system att lösa militära uppgifter som utförs under vissa omständigheter i en bestämd miljö. För att skapa ny eller utveckla befintlig militär förmåga kan militär innovation vara en avgörande pusselbit. Det kan vara innovativa system som löser uppgifter i den befintliga organisationen eller befintlig teknik som används på ett innovativt sätt.Syftet med detta examensarbete är att skapa en struktur för att diskutera teknik, innovation och förmåga på ett relevant sätt, där förmågans livscykel ger en överblick över den önskade förmågan vid planering av framtida sammansättningar av teknik och enheter, i stället för att fokusera på det individuella systemet. Därför styrs detta arbete av ett tematiskt syfte som åtminstone kräver en multidisciplinär forskningsansats som innehåller olika forskningsområden för att förstå hur de tekniska systemen kan bidra inom sitt sammanhang.För att visualisera detta sammanhang är de olika aspekterna av systemet här indelade i tre lager. Tekniklagret representerar själva tekniken, i detta fall marina obemannade system, som måste hanteras med dess möjligheter och begränsningar. Systemet behöver också förstås i det sociotekniska lager där det tekniska systemet interagerar med människor, organisation och andra enheter. Det sista lagret är det övervakande lagret med både de juridiska och etiska övervägandena vid användandet av tekniken, i detta fall ett obemannat system.Den övergripande slutsatsen är att förmågeutveckling inte innebär att göra saker på samma sätt som tidigare fast med annan teknik. Det handlar om tillit till det övergripande systemet och att utveckla hur tillgängliga resurser, både tekniska och sociotekniska, kan bidra till att lösa en uppgift så effektivt som möjligt i en förändrad organisation. / <p>QC 230928</p>

A major Norwegian defence procurement project takes decades from project initiation to the desired military capability is delivered and has reached full operational capability. The Norwegian Armed Forces’ primary mission is to maintain a credible deterrence and prevent armed conflicts arising, meaning that the capability acquired through military procurement projects must play into future general deterrence. Do Norway’s strategic military capability procurement projects contribute to a credible and capable deterrence? The purpose of this study is to gain a deeper understanding of the deterrence potential of two chosen Norwegian military procurement projects of strategic importance. The capabilities studied are the acquisition of the US fifth generation fighter, F-35 Lightning II and the 212CD submarine to be designed and built by Germany. The two projects have a combined estimated investment cost of 113 billion NOK. Deterrence is a large area in social science and the discipline of War Studies. This study applies a deterrence theory lens, primarily based on the conclusion in Zagare’s and Kilgour’s perfect deterrence theory regarding the importance of capable and credible threats, operationalised through Dalsjö’s five dimensions of threshold defence. The analysis identifies a clear credibility issue with one of the projects and the paradox that cost saving decisions intended to ensure operational availability and increase credibility also make the capability more vulnerable and less credible due to lack of redundancy.

This master’s thesis explores the application of Modeling and Simulation (M&amp;S) techniques in military operations involving Forward Arming and Refueling Points (FARP). FARPs play a crucial role in supporting aircraft operations by facilitating deep penetration into enemy territory and ensuring sustained presence in the Area of Operation (AOO). Due to the limited reach of aircraft, FARPs often become essential for accessing the AOO. Logistical units that are responsible for establishing FARPs, face the challenge of timely deployment, as joint air operations planning is complex and time-consuming. M&amp;S is employed to enhance the efficiency of FARP planning processes for military helicopters.M&amp;S allows for the testing of various solutions without the need for physical experiments, thereby enabling the exploration of different options during the planning phase of FARP operations. The Information Systems (IS) framework is utilized to create a theoretical knowledge base, forming the foundation for developing a M&amp;S product tailored to the requirements of FARP operations.This master’s thesis utilizes the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) method to construct a model of FARP operations, while employing Monte Carlo Simulation to quantify associated risks and discrete event simulation to simulate the time aspects of such operations. The outcomes include a Python-based simulation program that interprets real-world map images, simulates FARP operations, and generates data such as helicopter fuel consumption and FARP survival probability.Although the simulation program has limited functionality, it demonstrates the potential of M&amp;S to support decision-making processes for FARP commanders, which can enhance the overall efficiency of the FARP planning process. This is shown by a Spearman correlation test and Student's t-test, which revealed significant relationships among different elements of the model, reflecting the dynamics observed in real- world FARP operations. Further enhancements can be made to the simulation program by incorporating additional dynamic elements of the model.