This thesis seeks to understand the current dynamics of misperceptions in Southeast Asia. The paper would focus on three actors in the region: China, the U.S., and a representative state of ASEAN, Vietnam. The actors would be examined in the context of the South China Sea disputes. The essential goal of U.S. policymakers it to achieve peace and stability in the region by building a liberal order, but the existence of misperceptions makes it highly challenging. The misperceptions stem from the fact that each actor has to predict what paradigm what other actors’ actions are based on in the region. In order to reduce misperception, there must be a high level of trust derived from consistent rhetoric accompanied with actions. The paper finds that the problem lies in the fact that to achieve a coherent foreign policy that other actors can interpret consistently, there must be a convergence of domestic politics and other states’ actions that allows each actor to have a positive and constructive interpretation of its options. The paper examines how domestic politics can often hinder a coherent foreign policy that eliminates confusion for other actors. Furthermore, in the case study between the three actors, China, the U.S., and Vietnam, will demonstrate how actors’ behaviors and actions can be changing due to other actors and domestic politics. Therefore, the paper suggests several policies that the U.S. needs to take in order to reduce the tension between domestic politics and other states’ actions.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / eaders and governments using mechanisms to maintain national interest, power, and security. One such instrument is the use of coercive force or compellence. Compellence is a strategy of control designed to impose change, using limited military or non-military methods, upon an opponent. The United States implements compellence policy through a mixture of key actors who portray powerful images to the rest of the world. Its leaders reinforce these images internally (with self, local, regional, cultural ties) and externally (with others based, foreign perception on a larger international scope). As U.S.-led forces in Iraq affect America's image throughout the Middle East and the world, its image of Iraq remains opaque due to U.S. perception and misperception. Is compellence policy conducive to future U.S.-Iraqi relations? How effective is it? And why did U.S. compellence policy in Iraq succeed on some levels and not on others? This thesis examines the effectiveness of U.S. compellence policy as a viable method in U.S.-Iraqi relations from 1990 to 2003. Key operations and players will be evaluated and an analysis will explore political, social and economic levels of effectiveness of compellence policy in Iraq. / Civilian, Department of Navy

‘Sons of the soil’ conflicts seldom intensify above a low level of intrastate violence. Although frequent, they tend to remain small in scale, which has contributed to a lack of scholarly understanding about why some Sons of the soil conflict yet intensify more than others. Taking the role of the state into account, this study aims to investigate the causes for intensification in these conflicts. With a neoclassical realist approach, domestic factors behind the causal process of conflict intensification are unearthed, thereby investigating further the action-formation of the government threat perception. It leads the study to test the following hypothesis: A Sons of the soil conflict is more likely to intensify if the government misperceives the threat the conflict constitutes. Through a comparative process tracing analysis of Sons of the soil conflict intensity in Mali and Niger, 2006-2012, findings suggest that certain domestic factors at the state level cause a significant variation in the outcome. Actual low threats of Sons of the soil conflict may in fact be intensified due to state misperceptions.

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BACKGROUND: Weight misperception has been documented among children although the impact on health risk behaviors is less understood, particularly among middle school students. The goals of this study were to describe sociodemographic differences in actual and perceived weight, correspondence between actual and perceived weight, and weight-related health risk behaviors, as well as to examine weight misperception and interactions with sociodemographic variables in explaining weight-related health risk behaviors. METHODS: Participants were recruited at 11 public school districts participating in the Tennessee Coordinated School Health (CSH) pilot program. A total of 10,273 middle school students completed the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Youth Risk Behavior Survey administered by teachers in the school setting. RESULTS: Findings revealed sociodemographic differences in actual and perceived weight as well as weight misperception. Although overestimating one's weight was significantly related to greater likelihood of weight-related health risk behaviors, significant interactions showed this relationship to be especially pronounced in females. Additional distinctions based on sociodemographic variables are indicated. CONCLUSIONS: Results highlight the importance of screening for health risk behaviors including weight misperception among middle school students. The CSH program offers an opportunity to understand health risk behaviors among students while also informing and evaluating methods for intervention. © 2014, American School Health Association.

Background: Overweight and obesity is a significant public health problem in the United States. Young adulthood is a particularly vulnerable period for excess weight gain and development of overweight/obesity. Although standard behavioral weight control programs can produce clinically significant weight losses, they routinely struggle to recruit young adults, particularly young men and African-Americans. This limits our understanding of the efficacy of these programs for these individuals. Weight misperception has been proposed as a potential barrier to attempting weight loss. Evidence also suggests education level, income status, family medical history, occupational demands, and depressive symptoms are individually associated with attempting weight loss. Against this backdrop, it is important to examine the relative influence of weight misperceptions and other contextual factors to better understand why young adults, particularly men and African-Americans, do not attempt weight loss. Objective: To determine if observed differences in weight control by race and sex are due to differences in weight status perception accuracy among black and white young adults with overweight/obesity. The associations between contextual factors and weight loss attempts are also explored. Methods: Data from 2756 young adults (20-39 years old) who participated in the 2007-2014 National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) were analyzed. Logistic regression models examined the effect of weight status perception accuracy and contextual factors on weight loss attempts among young adults and men specifically. Moderation by sex was assessed in the sample as a whole and moderation by race in analyses limited to young adult men. Sensitivity analyses using a higher BMI threshold (BMI ≥ 27 kg/m2) were conducted to ensure that participants with a minimal weight misperception did not unduly influence findings. Results: Overall, 31% of young adults had an inaccurate weight status perception, with a significantly higher number of men, particularly black men, reporting an inaccurate perception of their weight. Young adults, and men specifically, were significantly more likely to report a weight loss attempt if they accurately perceived their weight (OR=3.66, 95% CI 2.80-4.77, p<0.01; OR=3.73; 95% CI 2.76-5.03; p<0.01, respectively). However, there was no moderation by sex or race. Higher education level and income status were associated with weight loss attempts among young adults in models that included both sexes and in those that were limited to men. Although not significant in the larger model, greater self-reported depressive symptoms were associated with weight loss attempts in analyses limited to young adult men. Sensitivity analyses were largely consistent with these findings. Conclusion: Most young adults with overweight/obesity accurately perceive their weight status. Weight status perception accuracy and certain contextual factors are important predictors of weight loss attempts among black and white young adults. Neither sex nor race moderated the association between weight status perception accuracy and weight loss attempts. These findings have implications for future research to better understand weight status perception and improve enrollment of young adults in weight control programs. / Public Health

Master of Science / Department of Psychological Sciences / Laura A. Brannon / Previous research has repeatedly demonstrated that undergraduate students overrate others’ norm comfort with and consumption of alcohol (i.e., Prentice & Miller, 1993). This is a dangerous misperception, as students are increasing their personal alcohol intake and / or frequency in order to match their incorrect perception of how much everyone else is drinking. Already assuming that their peers are more comfortable with, and consume more, alcohol than they do, college students’ perception of norm alcohol use may be influenced by peer comments indicating approval / disapproval of alcohol use. Thus, the present study experimentally tested whether a positive or negative comment in reaction to a portrayal of excessive drinking would influence participants’ perceptions of drinking behavior among their campus peers, and whether the sex of the person making the comment differentially influences participants’ perceptions of each sex’s extent of participation in drinking. Participants’ perceptions of drinking behavior were not influenced by the confederate comment nor confederate sex; however, participants consistently estimated that the drinking norm is higher for males than females. Additionally, female participants perceived the drinking norm to be higher than did male participants. Participants’ ratings of the confederates did differ, however, depending on the comment; participants rated the confederates more favorably when the comment made was negative / criticizing of excessive drinking than when the comment made was positive / endorsing of excessive drinking.

La province du Jammu et Cachemire, partagée entre l’Union Indienne et le Pakistan en 1947, est l’une des pommes de discorde qui a engendré une relation très conflictuelle entre les deux voisins, et qui a fait l’objet de crises diplomatiques et militaires récurrentes entre les deux pays, entrecoupées de rounds de négociation n’ayant pas abouti au règlement du conflit.Ce conflit au Cachemire va être passé au crible de deux théories des relations internationales, la théorie de la prise de décision modélisée par Graham Allison et la théorie de la perception développée par Robert Jervis. L’analyse de ce conflit va mettre en évidence la rationalité dans le processus de prise de décision au sein des deux pays, mais cette rationalité est néanmoins soumise à des perceptions de chaque côté de la frontière qui renvoient à la culture, aux mentalités, aux religions de chacun des deux pays. Ces perceptions peuvent amener un analyste occidental à croire à une certaine irrationalité de la part des deux pays. Il n’en est rien, car si l’on se place d’un point de vue indien ou pakistanais, leur mentalité, leur réflexion, leur culture respectives les amènent à une cohérence d’ensemble de chacune de leur politique.Cette analyse du conflit du Cachemire sous un angle particulier présente des limites, au premier rang desquelles la recherche bibliographique, qui mériterait d’être enrichie par des références hindies ou ourdoues. Néanmoins, la littérature en langue anglaise d’auteurs originaires du sous-continent indien autorise à utiliser la théorie de la perception avec une certaine précision et permet ainsi d’affiner l’analyse au plus près de la réalité. / My thesis is pertaining to the political and military relations between India and Pakistan, especially towards the Kashmir province. I decided to focus on Kashmir province because relations of the countries are strifen by a lot of fracture lines in fields like economics, water, defence and so on… The core issue of my thesis is to compare the way of behaving of the two countries towards the Kashmir province and to draw conclusions about this complicated relationship. Moreover, I choose to work on the late 20 years in order to narrow the study, because since 1947 and the partition of British India, 3 disputes have opposed both of them. For the late 20 years, a crisis in 1999 and several rounds of negotiations are the main part of my subject. The issue of my work is related to two political theories, namely the decision making process developed by Graham Allison, and the theory of perception and misperception emphasized in Robert Jervis book. From these two theories, we can deduce that the decision making process in both countries are rational. This rationality can be submitted to criticism. Nevertheless, both countries have taken several decisions towards Kashmir province in accordance with their respective politics. What will be the future for this province? It can be guessed that one day progress will be made towards peace in this part of the world. Keywords: Kashmir; India; Pakistan; Decision Making Process; Perception; Misperception.

The current research evaluated individual differences and contextual effects on men’s robust sexual overperception bias and on women’s tendency to be misperceived. Study 1 pioneered the use of a “speed-meeting” methodology which allowed for a direct calculation of sexual misperception by comparing measures of actual interest to measures of estimated interest across five interactions. As predicted, men demonstrated a robust sexual over-perception bias, a bias that was influenced by their mating strategy and physical attractiveness. Women, on the other hand, consistently underestimated men’s sexual interest in them, and physical attractiveness was a key predictor of their likelihood of being overperceived. Study 2 replicated the prediction tests from Study 1 and narrowed down the exploratory regression models to the most specific and robust effects, namely mating strategy and physical attractiveness. Study 3 examined the effects of testosterone (T) on men’s sexual misperception by manipulating intrasexual competition in the lab. Men engaged in a computer game, which randomly assigned them to win or lose, against an unseen male competitor. After the game, each participant interacted with a trained female confederate posing as a participant, after which they rated her on multiple traits, including interest in her and his estimate of her interest in him. Salivary assays for T were collected before and after the game, and after interacting with the confederate. The results of the experiment demonstrated that although the competition outcome did not affect men’s T, changes in T during the interaction with the woman predicted men’s sexual misperception. The more attractive the man found her, and the more interested he was in her, the more his T increased during their interaction and the more he overperceived her interest. Taken together, these studies indicate that far from a simple sex difference, men’s overperception bias is predictably nuanced and specific. / text