As taxas reais de juro básicas que têm sido praticadas no Brasil ao longo de um período de já quase quinze anos têm se mantido de forma permanente em níveis extremamente elevados quando comparadas com as taxas historicamente praticadas no país, ou quanto colocadas em uma perspectiva internacional. Neste trabalho, procurou-se proceder a uma análise crítica sistemática das principais teorias sugeridas pelo campo ortodoxo da teoria econômica com o objetivo de explicar a situação excepcional do Brasil, examinando os resultados empíricos por elas obtidos. De um modo geral, a análise conduzida não encontrou evidências satisfatórias capazes de sustentar a relevância ou por vezes a própria validade das teorias examinadas, as quais demonstraram claramente ser tanto teórica quanto empiricamente insuficientes para justificar a manutenção dos níveis das taxas reais de juro praticados no país. Assim, as conclusões e recomendações de política construídas a partir do conjunto de teorias aqui analisado cuja adequação para o caso brasileiro é posta em dúvida neste trabalho devem ser normalmente vistas com reserva. Por outro lado, procedeu-se a uma análise crítica dos fundamentos teóricos e empíricos sobre os quais se apóia a maneira em que a política monetária tem sido conduzida no país, de forma a verificar se as excepcionais taxas reais de juro brasileiras não decorreriam das necessidades impostas por uma política cujo principal objetivo declarado é manter o controle da inflação. Após proceder ao exame desses fundamentos, não se encontraram na condução da política monetária os elementos que pudessem justificar a particularidade daquelas taxas. Tendo a abordagem ortodoxa se mostrado globalmente insatisfatória como forma de explicar as taxas reais de juro brasileiras, é introduzida uma abordagem alternativa baseada na economia das convenções, a qual se mostrou a princípio capaz de fornecer bons indicativos para resolver a questão. / The basic real interest rates which have been in place in Brazil throughout a period of almost fifteen years remained at extremely high levels when compared against those rates historically valid in the country or when placed into an international perspective. This work has tried to proceed to a systematic analysis of the main theories suggested by the economic orthodoxy, which aim to explain the exceptional situation of Brazil, examining the empirical results such theories have obtained. In a general manner, the analysis has not found satisfactory evidences able to support the relevance or even in some cases the validity for the examined theories, which have clearly demonstrated being both theoretically and empirically insufficient to explain the maintenance of the levels of real interest rates in Brazil. Thus, the conclusions and policy recommendations built from such theories whose capacity of fitting to the Brazilian case was challenged in this work must be taken with particular care. By the other hand, it was performed an analysis on the theoretical and empirical grounds of the manner in which monetary policy was conducted in the country, in order to verify whether the exceptional Brazilian real interest rates could not be originated from the requirements imposed by a policy whose main declared target consists in maintaining the control of the inflation level. After examining those fundamentals, no elements on the monetary policy conduction were found which could justify the peculiarity of those rates. As the orthodox approach turned to be globally unsatisfactory as a way of explaining the Brazilian real interest rates, it was introduced an alternative approach, based on the economics of conventions, which showed itself as being able at first to provide useful insights to help to solve the question.

This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters. Chapter I. The first chapter develops a dynamic general equilibrium model which includes financial intermediation and endogenous financial crises. Consistent with the data, financial crises occur out of prolonged (credit) boom periods and are initiated by a moderate adverse shock. The mechanism which gives rise to boom-bust episodes around financial crises is based on an interaction between the maturity mismatch of the financial sector and an agency problem which results in procyclical lending. I show how to model these features in a tractable way, giving a realistic representation of the financial sector's balance sheet and its lending behavior. The chapter provides empirical evidence on the behavior of the U.S. financial sector's market leverage which is (i) acyclical, (ii) rose mildly prior to the Great Recession, and (iii) increased sharply during the crisis; the model is consistent with these empirical facts. It also predicts and replicates the Great Recession, when confronted with a historical series of structural shocks. Finally, the framework is extended to include price rigidities, nominal debt contracts, and monetary policy. Within this version, I analyze the impact of monetary policy on financial stability and show that a U-shaped pattern of the policy target rate is most likely to increase financial instability. Chapter II. The second chapter models the economy as a time varying vector autoregression, consisting of economic and financial variables. The interest lies in the time varying response of these variables to a monetary policy shock. Monetary policy shocks are identified as the surprise component in policy announcements extracted from price changes in Federal Funds futures around such announcements. These monetary policy surprises enter the model as an exogenous variable. The framework is used to obtain evidence on the time varying response of stock prices to the monetary policy surprises. Stock prices always persistently decrease following a monetary tightening and more strongly than fundamentals imply - with an increase in risk-premia accounting for the difference. However, the response of stock prices varies over time. They decrease less during a boom and a perceived bubble period than during a recession. The findings suggest that so-called "leaning against the wind policies" may be ineffective since stock prices are less responsive during periods when such policies would disinflate asset bubbles using contractionary monetary policy. Chapter III. The third chapter augments a monetary dynamic general equilibrium model with a bubble as considered in [Miao_Wang_2015]. A bubble may exist in firms' stock market values and firms borrow against their inflated stock market values. Within this framework, I analyze the relation between monetary policy and the bubble. I find that contractionary monetary policy decreases the bubble which tightens borrowing constraints and amplifies the reaction of investment and output. These results are in contrast to the ones in Gali (2014) who considers a bubble of the classic rational type and finds that contractionary monetary policy can increase bubbles.

The reliability of monetary policy as an economic stabilisation tool depends on the understanding of the empirical effects of policy intervention on macroeconomic aggregates. Since investigating the interdependencies between macroeconomic variables necessarily involves studying their interactions over time, time series analysis is an important tool. This thesis sets out to examine the presence and effects of nonstationarity in the form of a structural break in a basic VAR of four endogenous variables. Specifically, the transmission of a monetary policy shock on the macroeconomic aggregate of 11 Euro Area countries is estimated for the period 1999–2017, employing variables based on previous studies. A Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test is used to identify the break date, and a comparison is made between the periods. This study finds support for the presence of a break in the regression estimate from the breakpoint test, although the reults from the IRFs cannot be shown to be statistically significant, nor to be bias-free.

Analisamos a interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária na história econômica recente do país, avaliando em que medida essas políticas atuaram de forma complementar ou substitutiva. O trabalho que seguiu a linha de Zoli (2005), adotando algumas propostas de Mélitz (2000). Focamos, desta forma, na estimação de uma função de reação da política monetária às variáveis fiscais, controlando tal reação por outras variáveis que afetam o primeiro instrumento. Regredimos as equações utilizando o método MQO com matriz de variância e covariância robusta a autocorrelação e heterocedasticidade (Newey-West HAC). Para melhor avaliar a evolução do valor e da significância do coeficiente de reação da política monetária à fiscal realizamos regressões em janelas móveis de vinte e vinte e quatro trimestres. Encontramos indícios de que a política de juros, no período pré-1999, respondeu mais a variáveis relativas às crises financeiras internacionais e a risco. Por outro lado, a maioria das nossas especificações sugeriu haver uma mudança estrutural na natureza dessa interação no período pós-1999Q2. A partir desse trimestre, encontramos maiores indícios de que as políticas atuaram de forma complementar, atuando no mesmo sentido (ambas contracionistas, ou ambas expansionistas). / We analyzed the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in the recent Brazilian economy, searching in what sense these policies were conducted in complementary or substitutive way. This work followed the proposition of Zoli (2005) and adopted some suggestions of Mélitz (2000). We estimated a monetary policy reaction function, focusing in the reaction of this instrument to fiscal indicators. We adopted the OLS method with variance estimates robust to autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity (Newey-West HAC). To comprehend the evolution of magnitude and significance of the monetary policy reaction to fiscal policy, we regressed equations in moving window of twenty and twenty-four months length. We found indications that the interest rate policy, in the pre-1999 years, reacted mainly to variables related to the financial crisis of those years and to sovereign risk indicators. In the other hand, most of our specifications suggested a structural break in the nature of this interaction in 1999Q3. This quarter on, we found evidences that monetary and fiscal policies were conducted in a complementary way (both tight or both easy).

A condução da política monetária vem sendo descrita pela literatura recente por meio de uma regra forward-looking do tipo \"Taylor\". Neste contexto, o que a literatura identifica como o Princípio de Taylor indica que, para que haja uma política de controle inflacionário efetiva, o coeficiente de resposta dos juros nominais a um desvio da expectativa de inflação em relação à meta deve ser maior do que um. Deste modo, se este desvio for positivo, será provocado um aumento nos juros reais. No entanto, tomando uma Equação de Fischer também em termos expectacionais, a derivação da Regra nos leva a crer que tal princípio pode ser questionado, sendo necessário que este coeficiente supere ( ) t rr + 1 , ou seja, um mais os juros reais. Neste trabalho é estimada uma Regra de Taylor para o caso brasileiro, país com elevadas taxas de juros reais, buscando comparar o valor deste coeficiente ao valor de ( ) t rr + 1 . O método consiste em um Time-Varying Parameter (TVP), onde os parâmetros seguem passeios aleatórios. São utilizadas diversas combinações de dados. Os resultados mostraram uma política bastante agressiva por parte do Banco Central brasileiro em todos os períodos de análise. / The conduction of monetary policy is being described by recent literature through a forward-looking Taylor rule. In this context, what literature identifies as the Taylor Principle indicates that, for an efficient policy of inflation control, the coefficient of the response of nominal interest rates from the deviation of the inflation expectations in relation to the target should be more than one. If this deviation is positive, it will cause an increase in real interest rates. However, the derivation of the rule shows that this principle can be questioned, and the coefficient must be more than ( ) t rr + 1 , one plus the real interest rate. In this work we estimate a Taylor rule for Brazil, country with high real interest rates, trying to compare the coefficient value to ( ) t rr + 1 . The method consists in a Time-Varying Parameter (TVP), where the parameters follow a random walk process. Varied data combinations are used. The results show a very aggressive policy by the Central Bank in all periods of analysis.

This dissertation studies the relationship between the existence of multiple means of payment and the effects of monetary policy. Chapter 1 studies the choice of endogenous means of payment when holding money is risky. In steady state equilibrium, the marginal rate of substitution of cash goods for credit goods depends on the crime rate as well as the nominal interest rate. Credit may be used when the return on money is not positive. A positive money injection reduces the crime rate and transactions costs. When the crime rate is positive, welfare increase with inflation, and the Friedman rule is not necessarily optimal. Chapter 2 discusses the risk-sharing role of monetary policy when the asset market is segmented. A fraction of households exchange money for interest-bearing government nominal bonds in the asset market. The government injects money through open market operations with only participating households. In equilibrium, money is nonneutral and there are distributional effects of monetary policy. With idiosyncratic endowment risk, monetary policy cannot perfectly insure households. The optimal money growth rate can be positive and the Friedman rule is not optimal in general. Chapter 3 is built on the work of Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 in exploring distributional effects of monetary policy when individuals can choose means of payment among alternatives. In equilibrium, monetary policy has distributional effects. With a positive money injection, some households purchase a greater variety of goods with cash while others purchase a greater variety of goods with credit. Consumption may increase or decrease because household can choose alternative means of payment. Credit is used to dampen fluctuations in consumption arising from monetary policy. The liquidity effect arises under a certain condition.

Existing studies which analyze a central banks' behaviour in formulating monetary policy, are mostly concentrated on the experience of developed economies. However, developing economies face a different institutional structure, as well as a different set of constraints and shocks, hence, it would be interesting to analyze how a central bank under this different economic environment performs its monetary policy mandate. This thesis looks at the behaviour of Bank Negara Malaysia (The Central Bank of Malaysia) in formulating monetary policy in Malaysia during the period 1975-2005. ¶ There are four major aspects of Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) policy behaviour that are examined in this thesis. Firstly, with regard to its policy reaction function - does BNM set interest rates according to some form of policy rule or purely on a discretionary manner? After identifying the systematic component of its policy action, we try to establish BNM's policy objectives and preferences. This will help in understanding the rationale behind its policy action. The third aspect is whether BNM's policy behaviour changes over time. Lastly, with the use of an estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, we conduct some policy experiments to observe the possible impact on the Malaysia's economic outcomes were BNM to behave differently to what we envisaged its policy behaviour has been.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Dept. of Economics and Social Sciences Consortium. University of Missouri--Kansas City, 2006. / "A dissertation in economics and social sciences." Advisor: L. Randall Wray. Typescript. Vita. Title from "catalog record" of the print edition Description based on contents viewed Dec. 19, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 422-452). Online version of the print edition.

Esta tesis, titulada “Ensayos en Macroeconometría dinámica” se compone de tres ensayos y estudia dinámicas macroeconómicas desde una perspectiva empírica. El primer capítulo, titulado “Choques Tecnológicos y Horas Trabajadas: Nueva Evidencia de un Modelo Estructural de Factores” estudia los efectos de los choques tecnológicos sobre las horas trabajadas. Hasta ahora, el análisis se ha llevado a cabo utilizando exclusivamente los modelos estructurales vectoriales autoregresivos (SVAR) y los resultados obtenidos varían en función de la especificación de las horas trabajadas. En niveles, las horas trabajadas aumentan; expresadas en tasas de crecimiento, las horas caen. Aquí un enfoque diferente se toma. Los efectos sobre las horas son estimados usando un modelo estructural de factores dinámicos. El análisis se realiza con un conjunto de datos que contiene 102 series trimestrales de EE.UU. durante el período 1959Q1-2007Q4. El resultado principal es que un choque tecnológico positivo aumenta las horas trabajadas en el mediano y largo plazo aunque no tiene efecto en el impacto. Este hallazgo contrasta con el resultado obtenido en los modelos SVAR con horas expresadas en tasas de crecimiento ya que la respuesta es negativa. La diferencia es atribuible al hecho de que el choque tecnológico es no fundamental, lo que implica que un modelo VAR con un número finito de retardos no se puede utilizar para recuperar el choque tecnológico. El segundo capítulo, titulado “Los Determinantes de Expansiones sin Crédito” estudia las características y en particular los factores determinantes de expansiones sin crédito. Después de documentar algunos hechos estilizados de expansiones sin crédito en las economías de mercados emergentes, este análisis emplea modelos de panel probit para analizar los determinantes de las expansiones sin crédito. Nuestras principales conclusiones son las siguientes: en primer lugar, nuestro análisis de frecuencias confirma hallazgos anteriores de que expansiones sin crédito no son raros. Por otra parte, se muestra que la frecuencia de expansiones sin crédito se duplica después de una crisis bancaria o de divisas. En segundo lugar, los resultados de modelos de panel probit estimados sugieren que expansiones sin crédito suelen ser precedidos por importantes descensos en la actividad económica y la tensión financiera, en particular si el endeudamiento del sector privado es alto y el país depende de las entradas de capital extranjero. Por último, nos encontramos con que la predicción de probabilidad de una recuperación del crédito, en los Estados de Europa de este que son miembros de la UE durante los próximos años varía según los países, pero es relativamente alta en los países bálticos. Por último, el tercer capítulo, titulado “Transmisión de la Política Monetaria durante las Crisis Financieras: Una perspectiva empírica'” contesta a la pregunta de si la transmisión de la política monetaria en EE.UU. ha sido diferente durante las crisis financieras de los últimos cuarenta años. En particular, se analizan los efectos de una expansión de la política monetaria en tiempos de tensión financiera alta y en tiempos "normales". Como la pregunta a mano supone un entorno no lineal, el análisis se lleva a cabo mediante la introducción de un modelo de factores de transición suave (STFM). En este modelo, la transición entre estados (“normales” y las crisis financieras) depende de un índice de condiciones financieras que resume la información de los mercados financieros. Utilizando un conjunto de datos trimestrales durante el período 1970Q1 2009Q2 que contiene 108 EE.UU. series temporales macroeconómicas y financieras encuentro que una expansión monetaria tiene efectos más fuertes y más persistentes en las variables macroeconómicas durante las crisis financieras que. Las diferencias en los efectos entre los regímenes parecen originarse en la no linealidad en el canal de crédito. / This dissertation, titled “Essays in Dynamic Macroeconometrics’’ is comprised of three essays and analyzes macroeconomic dynamics from an empirical perspective. The first chapter, titled “Technology Shocks and Hours Worked: New Evidence from a Structural Factor Model’’ studies the effects of technology shocks on hours worked. So far, the analysis has been exclusively conducted using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) models and the results obtained differ strongly depending on the specification for hours worked. In levels, the hours worked increase; in growth rates, the hours fall. Here a different approach is taken. The effects on hours are estimated using a structural dynamic factor model. The analysis is performed with a data set containing 102 quarterly U.S. macroeconomic time series over the period 1959Q1-2007Q4. In line with former VAR analysis, the technology shock is identified assuming that it is the only shock having a permanent effect on the level of labor productivity. The main result is that a positive technology shock increases hours worked in the medium and long run while having no effect on impact. The finding is in contrast with that obtained in SVAR models with hours in growth rates since there the response is negative. The difference is attributable to the fact that the technology shock is nonfundamental for the growth rates of labor productivity and hours, implying that a VAR model with a finite number of lags cannot be used to recover the technology shock. The second chapter of this dissertation, titled “The Determinants of Credit-less Recoveries” is written together with my co-author Martin Bijsterbosch and aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylized facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this analysis uses panel probit models to study key determinants of credit-less recoveries. Our main findings are the following: first, our frequency analysis confirms earlier findings that credit-less recoveries are not at all rare events. Moreover, our analysis shows that the frequency of credit-less recoveries doubles after a banking or currency crisis. Second, results from estimated panel probit models suggest that credit-less recoveries are typically preceded by large declines in economic activity and financial stress, in particular if private sector indebtedness is high and the country is reliant on foreign capital inflows. Finally, we find that the predicted probability of a credit-less recovery in central and eastern European EU Member States during the coming years varies across countries, but is relatively high in the Baltic States. Finally, the third chapter, titled “Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Approach’’ aims to answer the question of whether the transmission of monetary policy in the United States has been different during the financial crises of the last forty years. In particular, I analyze the effects of a monetary policy expansion, i.e., a decrease in the Federal Funds rate, in times of high financial stress and in good or “normal” times. As the question at hand demands a non-linear environment, the analysis is carried out by introducing a Smooth Transition Factor Model (STFM). In this model the transition between states (“normal” times and financial crises) depends on a financial condition index summarizing information from financial markets. The STFM is estimated using Bayesian MCMC methods. Employing a quarterly dataset over the period 1970Q1-2009Q2 containing 108 U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series I find that a monetary expansion has stronger and more persistent effects on macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption and investment during financial crises than during “normal” times. Differences in effects among the regimes seem to originate from non-linearities in the credit channel.

This thesis examines two closely related issues: (1) the ability of imperfect information models to explain some aspects of business cycle dynamics, and (2) the interaction between central bank communications and monetary policy. These issues are related because central bank communications can only be studied in models with imperfect information. In chapter 1, I investigate the ability of a noisy rational expectations model to generate plausible macroeconomic dynamics. The model allows for imperfect, heterogeneous information, and signal extraction from endogenous variables. I find that imperfect information significantly improves the model's ability to generate persistent, hump-shaped responses to a transitory monetary policy shock. This is achieved without the need for mechanical frictions. In addition, the model generates realistic inflation forecast errors. Chapter 2 explores the relationship between central bank statements about future policy and the degree of commitment. I allow the central bank to make (possibly vague) statements about its expected future policy. I begin by assuming that the central bank adopts a loss function which internalizes the bygone costs of deviating from such a pre-announced policy action. The resulting policy is a convex combination of pure discretion and full commitment. As the precision of central bank statements increases, this policy converges to the full commitment policy. I then show that this type of commitment to internalize bygone costs is sustainable only for moderate degrees of precision. Chapter 3 studies the impact of central bank communications about the state of the economy. In particular, I examine the extent to which increased central bank transparency creates a meaningful trade-off between beneficially conveying fundamental information and adversely contaminating observed data with the central bank's opinion. This question is addressed in a variant of the model from chapter 1. In this environment, both the central bank and private agents learn about the state of the economy from observations of endogenous variables. By making the central bank learn from endogenous variables, I am able to study the impact of communications precision on the bank's signal extraction problem.