在全球化和改革開放的進程中，中國在各方面巳經取得了長足的進步，另一方面，外來衝擊也更容易侵入。在本文中我們主要關注世界上最大的兩個經濟體，中國和美國，通過貨幣政策所產生的聯繫。我們建立了若干個VAR 模型來分析美國貨幣政策的改變對於中國的影響以及意義。 / 我們發現，匯率波動是最主要的傳導渠道。基於這一點，文中的分析被劃分為兩個子時間段，以2005 年7 月的匯率改革為分隔點。在兩個時間段中，擴張性的美國貨幣政策衝擊都會引起流入中國的國際資本顯著增加，並以非FDI 的“熱錢"流入為主。在匯率改革之前，這一資本流入主要引起不可貿易品的需求增加，從而其相對價格提高，引起實際匯率升值，而對於經常賬戶和貿易收支的影響較小。相比之下，在匯率改革之後，這一資本流入引起的實際匯率升值主要通過名義匯率的調整來實現。雖然國內通貨膨脹壓力降低， 實際匯率波幅也沒有顯著上升，但是由於名義匯率變化對於出口的傳遞程度較高，貿易收支在短期內會明顯惡化。 / 為了增強分析的有效性和魯棒性，我們修改了VAR 的結構來觀察這一傳導機制隨著時間的演進。結果證明了最主要的轉折點出現在匯改附近，同時變量之間逐年的動態闕係也證明了以上的結論。 / 這些結果表明，在名義匯率和經常賬戶的穩定性，以及國內通貨膨脹的穩定性之間，存在著一個權衡關係。雖然對於浮動匯率制是否會帶來更高的實際匯率波動性本文並未發現很強的證據，但是我們觀察到它導致了經常賬戶更加劇烈的波動。在某些情況下，名義匯率升值甚至可以引起短暫的通貨緊縮現象，這在固定匯率制下是不會出現的。因此，邁向浮動匯率制的副作用不可被完全忽略，其中隱含的風險也在一定程度上說明了“浮動恐懼"這一普遍現象的合理性。 / On the transition path to a more globalized and open economy, China has witnessed a great progress in many aspects; meanwhile, external shocks are more likely to invade. In this work we focus on the connection between two largest economies, China and the US, through the channel of monetary policy innovations. Several structural VAR models are developed to analyze what a change in monetary policy stance of US implies for the Chinese economy and why this is important. / The principal transmission channel is through adjustment in exchange rates. We divide our analysis into two sub-periods based on the exchange rate reform in July 2005. Across both periods following an expansionary US monetary policy shock there is a burst of capital inflows concentrated within the first year that are dominated by non-FDI inflows, i.e., “hot money“. Before the exchange rate reform, these capital inflows lead to a rise in the demand for non-tradable goods, driving up their relative price, thereby achieving a real exchange rate appreciation. The effect on trade balance is relatively small. / Comparatively, after the exchange rate reform, real exchange rate appreciates due to the surge of capital inflows more through changes in nominal exchange rate. The inflationary pressure is alleviated significantly, and the short-run volatility of real exchange rate slightly increases. However, the pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes into exports is much higher, resulting in a short-run deterioration in trade balance severely. / To verify the validity and enhance the robustness of our analysis, we revise the identifying VARs to investigate the evolution of transmission over time. We show that the most significant turning point of the transmission channel coincides with the exchange rate reform, and comparison among dynamics of variables on a year-by-year basis confirms the previous conclusions. / It seems that there is a trade-off between the stability of nominal exchange rate and the current account, on the one hand, and the stabilization of inflation, on the other hand. Although we find only weak evidence that a more free-floating nominal exchange rate will lead to higher volatility in the real exchange rate, it may introduce higher short-run volatility in the current account. In some cases the appreciation in nominal exchange rate even generates a transitory deflationary effect that is absent under the pegged system. Therefore, the side effects of stepping toward a flexible exchange rate regime must be considered; the potential risk it involves justifies the “fear of floating“ to some extent. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Yang, Minmin. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 101-110). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.v / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Motivation --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions and Major Findings --- p.5 / Chapter 1.3 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.7 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.9 / Chapter 2.1 --- Open Economy Theories --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2 --- Empirical Research on International Transmission --- p.13 / Chapter 2.3 --- China as an Open Economy --- p.15 / Chapter 3 --- Theory --- p.18 / Chapter 3.1 --- Traditional Theory --- p.18 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- Transmission under Fixed Exchange Rate Regime --- p.19 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- Transmission under Flexible Exchange Rate Regime --- p.25 / Chapter 3.2 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Capital Control --- p.28 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Sterilization --- p.29 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.30 / Chapter 3.3 --- Summary --- p.36 / Chapter 4 --- Data and Methodology --- p.38 / Chapter 4.1 --- Vector Autoregression --- p.38 / Chapter 4.2 --- VARs models for the transmission of US monetary policy shocks to China --- p.41 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Benchmark VAR to IdentifyMonetary Policy Shocks in the US --- p.41 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Extend the Benchmark VAR to Include Chinese Variables --- p.45 / Chapter 4.3 --- Data --- p.50 / Chapter 5 --- Empirical Results --- p.57 / Chapter 5.1 --- Overview --- p.57 / Chapter 5.2 --- Transmission before the Exchange Rate reform --- p.59 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.59 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.62 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.64 / Chapter 5.3 --- Transmission after the Exchange Rate Reform --- p.66 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.67 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.67 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.69 / Chapter 5.4 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.70 / Chapter 5.4.1 --- Capital Control --- p.71 / Chapter 5.4.2 --- Sterilization --- p.71 / Chapter 5.4.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.72 / Chapter 5.5 --- Summary --- p.77 / Chapter 6 --- Robustness: Structural Break in the Transmission --- p.79 / Chapter 6.1 --- Methodology --- p.80 / Chapter 6.2 --- Empirical Results --- p.87 / Chapter 6.3 --- Summary --- p.91 / Chapter 7 --- Conclusion and Future Work --- p.92 / Bibliography --- p.101

In Korea, an inflation targeting (IT) regime was adopted in the aftermath of the Korean currency crisis of 1997–1998. At that time, the Bank of Korea (BOK) shifted the instrument of monetary policy from monetary aggregates to interest rates. Recently, central bank policymakers have confronted more uncertainties than ever before when deciding their policy interest rates. In this monetary policy environment, it is worth exploring whether the BOK has kept a conservative posture in moving the Korean call rate target, the equivalent of the US Federal Funds rate target since the implementation of an interest rate-oriented monetary policy. Together with this, the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009 provoked by the US sub-prime mortgage market recalls the following question: should central banks pre-emptively react to a sharp increase in asset prices? Historical episodes indicate that boom-bust cycles in asset prices, in particular, house prices, can be damaging to the economy. In Korea, house prices have been evolving under uncertainties, and in the process house-price bubbles have been formed. Therefore, in recent years, central bankers and academia in Korea have paid great attention to fluctuations in asset prices. In this context, the aims of this thesis are: (i) to set up theoretical and empirical models of monetary policy under uncertainty; (ii) to examine the effect of uncertainty on the operation of monetary policy since the adoption of interest rate-oriented policy; and (iii) to investigate whether gradual adjustment in policy rates can be explained by uncertainty in Korea. Another important aim is (iv) to examine whether house-price fluctuations be taken into account in formulating monetary policy. The main findings of this thesis are summarised as follows. Firstly, as in advanced countries, the four stylised facts regarding the policy interest rate path are found in Korea: infrequent changes in policy rates; successive changes in the same direction; asymmetric adjustments in terms of the size of interest-rate changes for continuation and reversal periods; and a long pause before reversals in policy rates. These patterns of policy rates (i.e., interest-rate smoothing) characterised the central bank‘s reaction to inflation and the output gap as being less aggressive than the optimising central bank behavior would predict (Chapter 3). Secondly, uncertainty may provide a rationale for a smoother path of the policy interest rate in Korea. In particular, since the introduction of the interest rate-oriented monetary policy, the actual call money rates have shown to be similar to the optimal rate path under parameter uncertainty. Gradual movements in the policy rates do not necessarily indicate that the central bank has an interest-rate smoothing incentive. Uncertainty about the dynamic structure of the economy, which is dubbed ‗parameter uncertainty‘, could account for a considerable portion of the observed gradual movements in policy interest rates (Chapter 4). Thirdly, it is found that the greater the output-gap uncertainty, the smaller the output-gap response coefficients in the optimal policy rules, and in a similar vein, the greater inflation uncertainty, the smaller the inflation response coefficients. The optimal policy rules derived by using data without errors showed the large size of the output-gap and inflation response coefficients. This finding confirms that data uncertainty can be one of sources explaining the reasons why monetary policymakers react less aggressively in setting their interest rate instrument (Chapter 5). Finally, we found that house prices conveyed some useful information on conditions such as possible financial instability and future inflation in Korea, and the house-price shock differed from other shocks to the macroeconomy in that it had persistent impacts on the economy, consequently provoking much larger economic volatility. Empirical simulations showed that the central bank could reduce its loss values in terms of economic volatility, resulting in promoting overall economic stability when it responds more directly to fluctuations in house prices. This finding provides the reason why the central bank should give more attention to house-price fluctuations when conducting monetary policy (Chapter 6).

Ye, Guofeng. / "September 2010." / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 33-34). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / ABSTRACT --- p.1 / 摘要 --- p.2 / Chapter 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.5 / Chapter 2 --- LITERATURE REVIEW ON MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM …… --- p.8 / Chapter 3 --- THE EFFECT OF SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE ON THE ECONOMY …… --- p.13 / Chapter 4 --- METHODOLOGY --- p.16 / Chapter 4.1 --- The Structural Vector Autoregressive Model --- p.16 / Chapter 4.2 --- The Error Correction Model --- p.18 / Chapter 4.3 --- The Alternative Model --- p.19 / Chapter 5 --- DATA --- p.20 / Chapter 5.1 --- Data Description --- p.20 / Chapter 5.2 --- Data Source --- p.20 / Chapter 6 --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.21 / Chapter 6.1 --- The Structural Vector Autoregressive Model --- p.21 / Chapter 6.2 --- The Error Correction Model --- p.28 / Chapter 6.3 --- The Alternative Model --- p.30 / REFERENCES --- p.33 / APPENDIX --- p.35 / Table 1 --- p.35 / Table 2 (SVAR: 1-3 years) --- p.36 / Table 3 (SVAR: 3-5 years) --- p.37 / Table 4 (SVAR: 5-7 years) --- p.38 / Table 5 --- p.39 / Table 6 (Error Correction Model: 1-3 years) --- p.40 / Table 7 (Error Correction Model: 3-5 years) --- p.41 / Table 8 (Error Correction Model: 5-7 years) --- p.42 / Table 9 --- p.43 / Table 10 (Money Supply: M0) --- p.44 / Table 11 (Money Supply: M 1) --- p.46 / Table 12 (Money Supply: M2) --- p.48

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This thesis applies time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility to assess the effectiveness of quantitative easing in time for the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve System between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. We find pronounced and statistically significant response of GDP and level of implied stock market volatility to a QE shock whereas the response of CPI is feeble and statistically insignificant. We argue that this does not necessarily imply that there is no effect of QE on CPI but rather that our model was not able to detect it. We believe that this may be due to inflation expectations channel which our model did not account for. This can be reassessed with a TVP-FAVAR model which is more suitable for such an analysis as it can encompass a larger set of variables. Moreover, apart from the US, we report increasing effectiveness of QE in time. This is opposed by the researchers who believe that QE has rather decreasing effectiveness in time because it is more efficient during economic distress and then its efficiency tends to decrease during normal times. We explain this deviation by citing other unconventional monetary tools such as credit easing, forward guidance or negative...

Current effectiveness and functioning of one of the key instruments of monetary policy, the interest rate, has been debated around the world with an increasing intensity. Sweden, specifically, characterized by a recent low inflation period coupled with an experimental approach to monetary policy (utilizing both negative interest rates and quantitative easing) presents a peculiar case of interest. This thesis presents new evidence on the monetary policy transmission in Sweden during the low inflation period. To convey this, it utilizes the Proxy-SVAR method, where data from financial markets are used to identify monetary policy shocks and their propagation through the financial and macroeconomic variables. In particular, STINA-swaps are used as an instrumental variable in our main model of interest. The results strongly suggest dampened effectiveness of the repo rate, the Riksbank's main interest rate tool, in achieving the inflation target over the past decades. Price puzzle is present in all model variations applied and hence hints at the inability of the Swedish central bank to effectively control inflation via interest rate decisions. It is important to state that the results are robust to multiple econometric specifications, different inflation setups or estimation methods. Furthermore, the...

An analysis of the current monetary policy framework in South Africa, which followed the exampie of a number of developed countries by implementing an inflation-targeting regime in 2000, is presented. The primary goal of the framework is to establish price stability, with financial stability a secondary objective. However, as has been evident in other countries, price stability does not guarantee financial stability. Movements in asset prices and the development of asset price bubbles have resulted in a number of episodes of financial instability, which negatively impacted on the growth and development of the countries involved. In addition, the majority of these episodes have occurred in periods of low and stable inflation. The dissertation analyses whether monetary policy would be more efficient if asset price movements were incorporated within the inflation-targeting regime. International experience indicates that early intervention of monetary policy can dampen the negative effects that result when an asset price bubble "bursts". However, if the monetary authorities act too early the effects on the economy can be just as disruptive. The literature is scrutinized to establish what the most effective form of monetary policy should be. The results are then transposed within the South African context to establish how the South African Reserve Bank can best ensure both price and financial stability.

Over the past few decades, many countries have experienced a marked decline in the volatility of output. However, there is still a significant difference between developed and developing countries in the level of output volatility. A proposed explanation for this phenomenon is the impact of economic policies on output volatility in developing countries. The empirical results reported in this study support this view. Trade openness and discretionary fiscal policy seem to increase volatility in developing countries, while the converse is true in developed countries. Furthermore, a flexible exchange rate regime is desirable to decrease volatility. However, many developing countries still use fixed rates for reasons such as a fear of floating, which contributes to volatility. The impact of monetary policy was found to be stabilising, but this could be the result of a favourable global economic environment. It should be noted, however, that uncontrollable factors such as financial systems and institutions play a vital role in all the above relationships. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

Is inflation targeting an appropriate framework for monetary policy? Experience from the inflation-targeting countries countries are optimistic about inflation targeting as a monetary-policy framework. South Africa is also following this trend. The international literature review of the topic offers lessons to be learnt from the common experience of the countries considered. It shows that inflation targeting is not a universal remedy to modern economic ills -- there is an emerging danger of assigning monetary policy a larger role than that which it can perform; a danger of expecting monetary policy to accomplish tasks that it cannot achieve; and a danger of preventing monetary policy from making the contribution that it is capable of doing. Therefore, inflation targeting cannot address all the macroeconomic problems that face many countries, except for inflation. Nonetheless, it plays a crucial role in improving macroeconomic performance. / Economics / M.A. (Economics)