Even though major advances in economic theory and modelling have in some cases furthered our understanding of how the economy works, the system as a whole has become more complex. If policymakers had perfect knowledge about the actual state of the economy, the various transmission mechanisms as well as the true underlying model, monetary intervention would be greatly simplified. In reality, however, the monetary authorities have to contend with considerable uncertainty in relation to the above-mentioned factors. This said, uncertainty has mostly been neglected in both the theoretical and empirical literature focusing on monetary policy analysis. Nonetheless, findings from a review of theoretical literature that does exist on this topic suggest that optimal central banks act more conservatively when faced with uncertainty. Similarly, empirical findings from the literature also favour conservatism. However, there is some evidence to suggest that this is not always the case. These results suggest that central banks do not always act optimally when faced with uncertainty. The limited number of industrial country cases examined prevents any generalised view from emerging. If anything, the literature findings suggest that central bank behaviour differs across countries. This thesis aims to contribute to the empirical literature by studying the effects of uncertainty on monetary policy in the developing country case of South Africa. In simplest terms, the thesis seeks to establish whether or not the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) responded optimally to uncertainty as suggested by theoretical models thereof. To this end, the thesis employs a theoretical model which resembles a structural rule-based approach. The optimal interest rate rule was derived given a set of structural equations relating to demand, the Phillips curve and the real exchange rate. To incorporate uncertainty, it is assumed that the coefficients are dependent on the variances of the exogenous variables, namely inflation, the output gap and the exchange rate. The uncertainty adjusted model allows us to investigate whether monetary policy is more aggressive or passive when uncertainty about the relevant exogenous variable increases. Inflation, output gap and exchange rate uncertainty estimates were derived through GARCH-model specifications related to the structural equations as defined in the theoretical model. The investigation considered both indirect and direct uncertainty effects with a sample period stretching from 1990 to 2011. The findings reported in this thesis provide strong evidence in support of the notion that uncertainty plays a significant role within the South African monetary policy landscape and contributes towards explaining the SARB’s actions. Furthermore, the results suggest that the SARB did in fact act optimally in responding more conservatively to target variable fluctuations on average. Also, the findings could potentially strengthen the case for inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime, as the results indicate a marked decline in the effects of uncertainty under inflation targeting than before. / Economics / D. Com. (Economics)

The objective of the thesis was to study monetary policy frameworks in developing countries. The thesis focused on three aspects of the monetary framework; the degree of central bank independence, the monetary policy strategy and the exchange rate regime. The research applied quantitative empirical analysis and in-depth case studies on Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon. The empirical research investigated three areas: 1) the phenomenon of ‘fear of floating’ and the correlation between exchange rate and macroeconomic volatility; 2) the degree of monetary policy independence in developing countries in the context of their increased integration into the global economic system; and 3) the degree of central bank independence and how it impacts both ‘fear of floating’ and monetary policy independence. The case studies allowed for an in-depth understanding of the process of setting monetary policy and the constraints under which it is formulated in developing countries. The results that emerged from the quantitative analysis highlight the impact of central bank independence in influencing the other aspects of the monetary framework, as it can mitigate fear of floating and contribute to increased monetary policy independence of world interest rates in developing countries. The case studies detailed the evolution of monetary frameworks in three countries with varying degrees of central bank independence. The degree of central bank independence increased in Egypt and Jordan as a result of severe currency crises in each country, while Lebanon provides a very different example of a developing country with an independent central bank since its inception. The conclusions that emerged from the cases suggest that central bank independence is critical in achieving exchange rate and price stability; however, developing countries should avoid focusing on exchange rate stability at the expense of other considerations for extended periods of time. In that, the results point to the benefits of proactively and pre-emptively managing the exchange rate regime. The cases also highlight the importance of the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, as conditions of fiscal profligacy can undermine even the most independent central bank.

M.Com. (Economic Development and Policy Issues) / Monetary policy is not only the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money, but is furthermore a sufficient tool to overcome the problem of economic growth and unemployment. This can take place when the policy instruments – interest rates (Repo) and money supply growth (M3) – have significant effects on these macroeconomic variables. However, the issue of the efficacy of monetary policy on GDP growth and employment creation is at the centre of debates among researchers. Some researchers are of the opinion that the objective of monetary policy in achieving and maintaining price stability is founded on the idea that inflation is not good for economic growth, employment creation and income equality but, instead, only secures macroeconomic environment. In South Africa, the efficiency of different monetary policy tools, inflation and money-supply targeting, on economic performance has been questioned. Moreover, the issue of the high level of unemployment remains controversial among scholars. Therefore, the structural vector-error correction model (VECM) methods was used with quarterly data in order to investigate the impact of aggregate money supply (M3), interest rate (Repo) and real exchange rate on CPIX (inflation) , economic growth (GDP volume rate) and unemployment (joblessness rate) in South Africa for the period 1986 to 2010. The results show that both monetary-policy regimes have positively impacted on economic growth, but the impact of the pre-inflation-targeting regime is higher. Moreover, a weak positive liaison between monetary policy and unemployment is observed, but the post-inflation-targeting regime shows a higher percentage decrease in unemployment than the pre-inflation targeting period. Beyond any doubt, the research approves the engagement of the SARB to monitor (target) CPIX (inflation) due to its ability to ensure price stability and create a stable economic environment favourable to economic performance.

Wu, Zhouheng. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 44-46). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.3 / Chapter 3. --- Overview of Key Factors that affect inflation in China --- p.6 / Chapter 3.1 --- Output Growth --- p.6 / Chapter 3.2 --- Money Supply --- p.7 / Chapter 3.3 --- Exchange Rate --- p.7 / Chapter 3.4 --- Wage --- p.8 / Chapter 3.5 --- Other Exogenous Shocks --- p.10 / Chapter 4. --- The Model --- p.11 / Chapter 4.1 --- Households --- p.12 / Chapter 4.2 --- Production Firms --- p.16 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Non-Traded Sector --- p.16 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Traded Sector --- p.19 / Chapter 4.3 --- Import Prices --- p.20 / Chapter 4.4 --- Monetary Policy Rules --- p.21 / Chapter 4.5 --- Domestic and External Shocks --- p.23 / Chapter 4.6 --- Market Clearing Conditions --- p.24 / Chapter 5. --- Calibration --- p.26 / Chapter 5.1 --- Calibration of parameter values --- p.26 / Chapter 5.2 --- Theoretical Impulse Responses and Variance Decomposition --- p.28 / Chapter 6. --- Model Fitness --- p.33 / Chapter 7. --- Conclusion Remarks --- p.35 / References --- p.38 / Appendix / Appendix A Equilibrium Conditions --- p.41 / Appendix B Steady State --- p.43 / Appendix C Simulation --- p.45 / Appendix D Data Description and Empirical Results --- p.56

[pt] O trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de um modelo para avaliação de bem-estar de política monetária numa economia onde o governo enfrenta alguma restrição à liberdade de financiamento da dívida pública. O governo, no modelo, é capaz de se financiar através da emissão de títulos da dívida e de duas formas de taxação: lump sum e distorciva. A hipótese adotada no trabalho é que o governo não poderá estabelecer um nível constante de taxação distorciva ao longo do tempo, e deixar que o estoque da dívida ou da taxação não distorciva se ajustem em resposta aos choques. Ao contrário, o governo será forçado a alterar a taxação distociva corrente em resposta às variações do serviço da dívida. A partir do modelo, são feitas as considerações sobre o comportamento ótimo da autoridade monetária, no sentido do estabelecimento de uma regra ótima de política monetária. / [en] The dissertation consists in the development of a model to evaluate the welfare effects of monetary policy in an economy where the government faces some restriction to debt financing. The government, in the model, is able to finance its expenditures by issuing public debt or levying two kinds of taxation: lump sum and distortionary taxes. The hypothesis adopted here is that the government cannot set a constant rate of distortionary taxation over time, and let either the debt stock or the lump sum taxation to adjust in response to shocks. Instead, the government will be forced to adjust the current distortionary taxation in response to variations of the debt service. The conclusion is that the optimal monetary policy rule that results from this model is quite different from the optimal rule in the absence of restrictions to debt financing.

The aim of this thesis is to examine empirically the relationship between the exchange rate, the instruments of monetary policy and the measures of economic performance for Indonesia, Korea and Thailand during the pre- and post 1997 Asian financial crisis. The first core chapter (Chapter 2) assesses the possible linkages between the increase in domestic inflation and the exchange rate targeting policy adopted in these countries. Using the cointegration technique and a simple monetarist inflation model, Chapter 2 finds strong evidence that the exchange rate policy that generates a predominant domestic currency undervaluation has caused an increase in the domestic inflation rate for Indonesia and Korea. However, the exchange rate targeting policy that brings about a predominant baht overvaluation especially during the pre-crisis period has lowered Thailand’s inflation. Soon after the outbreak of 1997-crisis, instead of using the exchange rate as the nominal anchor, all three countries have implement their monetary policy around an inflation target following an inflation targeting framework. Owing to this significant structural break, the second core chapter (Chapter 3) uses a Markov-switching VAR framework to determine if the effects of monetary policy shocks have changed across different monetary policy regimes in these economies. Chapter 3 finds that regime switches occur in mid-1997 to 2000 for Indonesia, which coincides with the period after the onset of 1997-crisis and the economic recovery period; and in 1999 for Korea and Thailand, which coincides with the period when the inflation-targeting framework is adopted. From the regime-dependent impulse response functions, the responses of macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks have changed significantly across different regimes only for the case of Korea and Thailand. From the above discussions, Chapter 2 found that exchange rate targeting policy caused higher domestic inflation in Indonesia and Korea especially during the pre-crisis period; while Chapter 3 found that inflation targeting policy seemed to cause structural changes in Korea and Thailand. Therefore using a structural VAR framework, the third core chapter (Chapter 4) explores further the role of the exchange rate and inflation targeting policy on the economic performances of these economies during the pre- and post crisis periods. Chapter 4 finds that in the case of Indonesia and Korea, the foreign exchange market does create most of its own shocks during the pre-crisis period but not during the post crisis period. For Indonesia and Thailand, the soft US dollar peg policy during the pre-crisis period has caused additional distortions in the domestic economy. Moreover the role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber has increased during the post crisis period only for the case of Indonesia and Thailand. For all three economies, following the introduction of the inflation targeting policy, domestic short-term interest rates have been adjusted systematically to offset inflationary pressure following the real and nominal shocks. Moreover, in the case of Indonesia and Thailand, the unsystematic part of monetary policy plays a smaller role in explaining the variations in domestic economy during the post crisis period. / http://proxy.library.adelaide.edu.au/login?url= http://library.adelaide.edu.au/cgi-bin/Pwebrecon.cgi?BBID=1320356 / Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2008

Central banks use a series of relatively small interest rate changes in adjusting their monetary policy stance. This persistence in interest rate changes is well documented by empirical monetary policy reaction functions that feature a large estimated coefficient for the lagged interest rate. The two hypotheses that explain the size of this large estimated coefficient are monetary policy inertia and serially correlated macro shocks. In the first part of my dissertation, I show that the effect of inertia on the Federal Reserve’s monthly funds rate adjustment is only moderate, and smaller than suggested by previous studies. In the second part, I present evidence that the temporal aggregation of interest rates puts an upward bias on the size of the estimated coefficient for the lagged interest rate. The third part of my dissertation is inspired by recent developments in the housing market and the resulting effect on the overall economy. In this third essay, we show that high loan-to-value mortgage borrowing reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy.

published_or_final_version / Economics / Master / Master of Social Sciences

published_or_final_version / Economics / Master / Master of Social Sciences

published_or_final_version / Economics / Master / Master of Social Sciences