Целью магистерской диссертации является выявление противоречивых особенностей монетарного регулирования Банка России на современном этапе развития экономики страны. Автором проведен анализ степени монетизации экономики в разных странах, сделан вывод о недостаточном уровне монетизации в России; выявлены противоречия между целями и результатом использования ряда инструментов денежно-кредитной политики Банка России; представлены пути совершенствования денежно-кредитного регулирования; выявлены проблемы в банковском секторе, возникающие в результате регулятивных действий Банка России. / The purpose of the master's thesis is to identify the contradictory features of monetary regulation of the Bank of Russia at the present stage of the country's economic development. The author analyzed the degree of monetization of the economy in different countries, concluded that there is insufficient monetization in Russia; were revealed the contradictions between the purposes and the result of using a number of monetary policy instruments of the Bank of Russia; are presented the ways to improve monetary regulation; were identified the problems in the banking sector arising from regulatory actions of the Bank of Russia.

Master of Arts / Department of Economics / Lance J. Bachmeier / This thesis uses a structural VAR approach with a recursiveness assumption to examine the effects of an expansionary monetary policy shock on financial variables. We build this on the established research of the effects of monetary shocks on macro variables by measuring the expansionary shock as an increase in the money supply. We also investigate interest rate policy and test whether financial market variables matter for the determination of interest rate. We analyze four different cases in this paper using the innovations in the money supply, non-borrowed reserves, the interest rate and bond yield (including bonds with remaining maturity period close to 30- years) as a measurement for the expansionary monetary policy shock.

In this paper we compare the transmission of a conventional monetary policy shock with that of an unexpected decrease in the term spread, which mirrors quantitative easing. Employing a time-varying vector autoregression with stochastic volatility, our results are two-fold: First, the spread shock works mainly through a boost to consumer wealth growth, while a conventional monetary policy shock affects real output growth via a broad credit / bank lending channel. Second, both shocks exhibit a distinct pattern over our sample period. More specifically, we find small output effects of a conventional monetary policy shock during the period of the global financial crisis and stronger effects in its aftermath. This might imply that when the central bank has left the policy rate unaltered for an extended period of time, a policy surprise might boost output particularly strongly. By contrast, the spread shock has affected output growth most strongly during the period of the global financial crisis and less so thereafter. This might point to diminishing effects of large scale asset purchase programs. (authors' abstrct) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The ultimate goal of the African Union is full political and economic integration, which includes a monetary union with a common currency for all member states of the African Union. This monetary integration is proposed to take place in two stages: firstly, through five regions, and secondly, through complete integration. This report examines current trade data for member states of the African Union using k means duster analysis to group countries according to trade patterns. Analysis was performed for the actual US dollar value of trade, as well as considering only the presence or absence of trade. There are limitations to the data collected: firstly, they are annual data, which masks fluctuations in trade due to economic conditions or political developments. Secondly, they are subject to missing or under-reported values. The focus of this research report was to consider trade figures for the first time, and the limitations were considered acceptable in view of the aim of achieving a first approximation of results. When considering all solutions, there are overlaps between clusters, but no definite patterns emerge that are common to all analyses. Considering the F and Euclidean distances of all solutions, the best appears to be that for clusters derived from analysing trade figures between Africa and its trading partners outside Africa. Further analysis of this solution failed to demonstrate viable clusters. The final conclusion to be made from this analysis is that k means clustering of trade figures for member states of the African Union does not generate viable clusters that could be used as steps towards full monetary integration in Africa. Given this conclusion it is recommended that the stepwise progression towards full monetary integration be considered by utilising existing economic arrangements, i.e. by using the five Regional Economic Communities proposed by the African Union. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die uiteindelike doel van die Afrika-unie is volledige politieke en ekonomiese integrasie, wat 'n monetere unie met 'n gemeenskaplike geldeenheid vir al die lidstate van die Afrika-unie insluit. Hierdie monetere integrasie word in twee stadiums beoog: eers deur vyf streke, en daarna deur volledige integrasie. Hierdie verslag ondersoek die huidige handelsdata vir lidstate van die Afrika-unie deur k gemiddelde trosanalise te gebruik om lande volgens handelspatrone te groepeer. 'n Analise is ook gedoen van die werklike VS-dollarwaarde van handel, en deur die aanwesigheid of afwesigheid van handel in aanmerking te neem. Daar is beperkings op die data wat ingesamel is: eerstens is dit jaarlikse data, wat skommelings in handel as gevolg van ekonomiese toestande of politieke ontwikkelings verberg. Tweedens is hulle onderworpe aan ontbrekende of ondergerapporteerde waardes. Die fokus van hierdie navorsingsverslag was dus om handelsyfers vir die eerste keer te oorweeg, en die beperkings is aanvaarbaar beskou in die lig van die doel om 'n eerste benadering van resultate te verkry. Wanneer aile oplossings oorweeg word, is daar oorvleueling tussen trosse, maar geen definitiewe patrone ontstaan wat vir alle analises geld nie. Wanneer die F- en Euklidiese afstande van alle oplossings oorweeg word, lyk dit asof die beste die trosse is wat verkry is uit die analise van handelsyfers tussen Afrika en sy handelsvennote buite Afrika. Verdere analise van hierdie oplossing het nie lewensvatbare trosse aangedui nie. Die finale gevolgtrekking wat uit hierdie analise gemaak kan word, is dat k gemidderde trosvorming van handelsyfers vir lidstate van die Afrika-unie nie lewensvatbare trosse genereer wat gebruik kan word as stappe in die rigting van volledige monetere integrasie in Afrika nie. Met die oog op hierdie gevolgtrekking word daar aanbeveel dat die stapsgewyse vordering na volledige monetere integrasie oorweeg moet word deur bestaande ekonomiese reelings te gebruik, d.w.s. deur die vyf Streeksekonomiese Gemeenskappe te gebruik wat deur die Afrika-unie voorgestel is.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Inflation has many negative effects and for this reason the South African Reserve Bank, like central banks in most countries, is strongly opposed to inflation and uses its monetary policy to combat it. This action is necessary for continued economic growth, prosperity and a fair distribution of income and wealth. Low inflation and a stable financial environment are important prerequisites for the achievement of these objectives on a long-term basis. In order to combat inflation in South Africa it was announced in the Budget Speech on the 23 February 2000, that a policy of inflation targeting would be implemented in South Africa. The objective is to bring inflation within the target band of three to six percent by the year 2002. Inflation targeting has been successful in helping New Zealand, Canada, Israel, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Australia and Spain achieve and maintain low rates of inflation. This does not mean, however, that inflation targeting has been implemented without incurring costs in lost output and employment, but there is no evidence that the adoption of inflation targets has produced harmful effects to the real economy over the long-term. Instead, the low inflation rates achieved in the inflation targeting countries have improved the prospects for sustainable longterm growth. However, inflation targeting is not appropriate for all countries. There are certain developing countries that do not meet the basic requirements for adopting inflation targeting. In this study the viability of implementing inflation targeting as a policy solution to combat inflation in South Africa is examined. In order to determine this, focus is placed on the key characteristics and features of inflation targeting. The reasons why countries have implemented inflation targeting are viewed and the prerequisites that must be met before inflation targeting can be implemented are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of this approach are also highlighted. Furthermore, focus is placed on how inflation targeting has been implemented in some of the advanced economies in order to determine whether it can be successfully implemented in developing countries, and if so, in which developing countries. Finally equipped with an .understanding of the theoretical aspects of inflation targeting and drawing from the lessons of the international experiences, focus is placed on how viable it is to implement inflation targeting in South Africa. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Wêreldwyd neem Sentrale Banke van ontwikkelende lande, aktiewe stappe in die bekamping van inflasie. Die Suid Afrikaanse Reserwe Bank, net soos ander Sentrale Banke is ook gekant teen inflasie en maak gebruik van hulle monetêre beleid vir die bekamping van inflasie. Bekamping van inflasie is van kardinale belang om voortgesette ekonomiese groei, welvaart en 'n regverdige verspreiding van inkomste en rykdom te verseker. Lae inflasie en 'n stabiele finansiële omgewing is belangrike voorvereistes om hierdie finansiële doelwitte in die langtermyn te bereik. Ten einde inflasie in Suid Afrika te bekamp, het die Minister van Finansies in sy begrotingsrede van 23 Februarie 2000, aangekondig dat Suid Afrika 'n beleid van inflasie bekamping gaan implementeer. Die doelwit van so beleid sou wees om inflasie binne 'n drie tot ses persent teikenband te beperk teen die jaar 2002. Inflasie bekamping was suksesvol in die bekamping van inflasie in lande soos New Zealand, Kanada, Israel, Die Verenigde Koningkryk, Swede, Australia en Spanje, waar lae inflasie koerse behaal is en gehandhaaf word. Alhoewel 'n beleid van inflasie bekamping met indirekte koste en 'n verlies in produksie en werksgeleenthede gepaard gaan, is daar geen bewyse dat die implementering van inflasie teikens 'n wesenlike effek op die ekonomie in die langtermyn het nie. Inteendeel, lae inflasie in die teikengroep lande het verseker dat voortdurende ekonomiese groei oor die langtermyn gehandhaaf kon word. 'n Beleid van inflasie bekamping is nie wenslik vir alle lande nie. Daar is verskeie ontwikkelende lande wat nie aan die basiese voorvereistes vir die implementering van 'n beleid van inflasie bekamping voldoen nie. In hierdie studie word die wenslikheid, al dan nie vir die implementering van 'n beleid van inflasie bekamping, as 'n beleidsoplossing in die bekamping van inflasie in Suid Afrika ondersoek. Ten einde dit te bereik word die fokus op die hoof karaktertrekke en einskappe van inflasie bekamping geplaas. Die redes waarom lande inflasie bekamping implementeer, asook die voorvereistes waaraan voldoen moet word, alvorens 'n beleid van inflasie bekamping geimplementeer kan word, word bespreek. Die voor- en nadele van hierdie werkswyse word ook uitgelig. Voorts word gefokus op die implementering van inflasie bekamping in ontwikkelde ekonomieë, om te bepaal of dit op die ekonomieë van ontwikkelende lande toegepas kan word, en indien wel, watter ontwikkelende lande? Toegerus met 'n begrip van die teoretiese aspekte van inflasie bekamping, gepaardgaande met die internasionale ervarings, word daar gefokus op die wenslikheid, vir die implementering van 'n beleid van inflasie bekamping in Suid Afrika.

This report reviews the 2007 financial crisis and the actions of the Federal Reserve. The Full Employment Act of 1946 and the "Humphrey-Hawkins" Act guides the Fed's actions. These two laws outline the long-term goals of the monetary policy framework the Fed uses; however, the framework lacks principles for achieving the mandated long term goals such as reliable, complete data. This report looks at the use of model-based forecasting and gives recommendations for principles which will strengthen the preexisting monetary framework. / text

A stable money demand function plays a vital role in the analysis of macroeconomics, especially in the planning and implementation of monetary policy. With the use of cointegration and error correction model estimates, this study examines the existence of a stable long-run relationship between real money demand (RM2) and its explanatory variables, in South Africa, for the period 1990-2007. The explanatory variables this study uses are selected on the basis of different monetary theories, including the Keynesian, Classical and Friedman‟s modern quantity theory of money. Based on these theories, the explanatory variables this thesis uses are real income, an interest rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate. All variables have the correct signs, as expected from economic theory, except the inflation rate. Thus real income and inflation have positive coefficients, while the interest rate and exchange rate coefficients are negative. The results from unit root tests suggest that real income, interest rate and the inflation rate are found to be stationary, while RM2 and the exchange rate are non-stationary. Results from the Engle-Granger test suggest that RM2 and its all explanatory variables are cointegrated. Hence, we find a long-run equilibrium relationship between the real quantity of money demanded and four broadly defined macroeconomic components: real income, an interest rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate in South Africa. Overall, the study finds that the coefficient of the equilibrium error term is negative, as expected, and significantly different from zero, implying that 0.20 of the discrepancy between money demand and its explanatory variables is eliminated in the following quarter. This evidence suggests that the speed of adjustment for money demand implies the money market in South Africa needs about four quarters to re-adjust to equilibrium. This observation agrees with the public statements of the South African Reserve Bank. Whether this will hold after November 2009 is the obvious subject of future research. / Thesis (M.Comm.) - University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2009.

This study attempted to examine the nature of the relationship between high levels of external debt and capital accumulation with the case study of Rwanda.

In this study, it is determined that excess returns on the OMX 30 are confirmed to rise in anticipation of monetary policy decisions made by the central banks of Sweden and The United States of America. Those findings were manifested at a greater magnitude on the first day prior to the announcements and on a statistically significant level one day prior to monetary policy decisions from the Federal Open Market Committee. Moreover, excess returns beyond the average rate were found to be substantially higher on the first and third day prior monetary policy decisions from the Swedish Central bank (Riksbanken) albeit not on a statistically significant level. The results drawn from the data in the study were reinforced by findings in similar tests conducted during times of global recession.

Cette thèse s'inscrit dans les débats sur le rôle du régime de change et de la règle de politique monétaire. Elle développe une analyse empirique sur les 17 pays du Moyen-Orient et d'Afrique du Nord (MOAN). A contre-courant de l'idée répandue d'une supériorité des régimes extrêmes, ces pays ont souvent opté en faveur de régimes de change intermédiaires. Ceci soulève deux questions : d'une part, quels sont les facteurs qui expliquent ce choix particulier ? D'autre part, comment se situent les performances macroéconomiques qui en résultent ? Dans cette recherche, nous apportons des éléments de réponse sur ces deux interrogations. Le premier chapitre traite de la question du choix du régime de change. Les principaux facteurs que la théorie suggère pour expliquer le choix du régime sont testés empiriquement. L'analyse confirme le rôle des facteurs qui relèvent de l'hypothèse de la peur du flottement. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous évaluons l'impact de ce choix sur la performance en termes d'inflation. L'adoption d'un régime de changes fixe est souvent motivée par la recherche d'une plus grande maîtrise de l'inflation mais l'efficacité de cette stratégie n'est pas garantie. L'analyse empirique indique que la modération de l'inflation est plus liée à la stabilité de facto du taux de change qu'à l'annonce d'un régime de change fixe. L'incidence de la flexibilité du taux de change sur la croissance économique est analysée dans le troisième chapitre. La théorie conventionnelle attribue des propriétés stabilisatrices aux taux de change flexibles mais la variation du taux de change peut être une source de volatilité macroéconomique. La dollarisation des dettes publiques et privées explique la peur du flottement observée dans certains pays du MOAN et réduit la possibilité de recourir à cet instrument. Le quatrième chapitre fournit une évaluation de la politique monétaire et de taux de change dans le cas de la Syrie dans la décennie des années 2000. / This thesis lies within the debate about the role of the exchange rate regime and the monetary policy. It develops an empirical analysis in 17 countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Contrary to the widespread tenet of the superiority of corner regimes, MENA countries have often chosen intermediate regimes. This raises two questions: first what are the reasons for the choice of an intermediate regime? Second how do these countries perform in macroeconomic terms? In this research we bring about material for answering these two questions. The first chapter deals with the choice of the exchange rate regime. We test the main factors suggested by the theory. The empirical analysis confirms the role of factors that are related to the fear of floating hypothesis. In the second chapter we assess the impact on inflation of the choice of an exchange rate regime. The adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime is often motivated by the desire to keep inflation under control, although the success is not guaranteed. The empirical analysis shows that low inflation is rather associated to a de facto stable exchange rate than a formal fixed exchange rate. The third chapter analyses the effect of exchange rate flexibility on growth. The conventional theory states that flexible exchange rates have a stabilizing effect. But an excess in exchange rate volatility may undermine the real macroeconomic performance. In fact the dollarisation of public and private debts generates the fear of floating observed in MENA countries, and reduces the capacity to resort to this instrument. The fourth chapter develops an assessment of monetary and exchange rate policy in Syria in the 2000 decade.