Dans les feux de compartiment, les fumées représentent un danger majeur lors de l’intervention des sapeurs-pompiers. Elles sont souvent à très hautes températures et sont surtout très mobiles. De ce fait, elles provoquent la propagation du feu et peuvent engendrer des phénomènes thermiques, imprévisibles et incontrôlables, tels que les explosions de fumées ou l’embrasement généralisé éclair. L’étude présentée se propose de contribuer à construire des méthodes et des moyens pour pallier aux manques d’informations lors de l’intervention des sapeurs-pompiers sur feux de compartiments. Il s’agit de proposer une méthode de diagnostic en temps réel afin, en particulier de détecter l’occurrence de dangers potentiels spécifiques à ces situations.Pour une approche plus rationnelle, l’incendie a été étudié comme un phénomène physique, ce qu’il est, et analysé à partir des relevés de température au cours de l’évolution du feu. La particularité de l’étude a été d’examiner ces relevés de températures comme des séries temporelles et d’étudier leurs caractéristiques à partir de deux moyennes mobiles dans le passé, soit sur un même point de mesure soit sur deux points de mesures positionnés en des endroits clés. Cette méthode a permis de montrer que l’entrecroisement des moyennes mobiles donne des informations pertinentes sur l’évolution à venir du feu et sur la possibilité de détecter l’apparition possible de phénomènes thermiques catastrophiques. / In compartment fires smokes are a major danger during firemen intervention. Most of the time, they are at high temperature and they flow everywhere through many kinds of ducts, which leads to the propagation of the combustion by the creation other fires in places which may be far from the initial fire. Besides, since the appearance of the new building materials and with the heat insulations which lead to the concentration of heat during a fire, the compartments fire became even more dangerous for firefighters during their phases of attack.In the presente study we will introduce a new approach of the problem, which allows to better follow the fire behavior and especially to detect the dangers that may appear and endanger firefighters. This approach consists in a mathematical analysis based on the comparison of moving averages, calculated on the temperature recordings of the smokes. As a consequence, this method may allow improving decision support in real time and therefore to improve the security and the efficiency of firefighters in their operations against that kind of fires.

Incluir a Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri (UFVJM) como ag?ncia financiadora. / Submitted by Jos? Henrique Henrique (jose.neves@ufvjm.edu.br) on 2017-12-14T16:46:41Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) patrick_aurelio_luiz_ribeiro.pdf: 6159348 bytes, checksum: 5978e3ca5ff417ce94712c998e8c5c8a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Rodrigo Martins Cruz (rodrigo.cruz@ufvjm.edu.br) on 2018-01-03T12:20:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) patrick_aurelio_luiz_ribeiro.pdf: 6159348 bytes, checksum: 5978e3ca5ff417ce94712c998e8c5c8a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-03T12:20:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) patrick_aurelio_luiz_ribeiro.pdf: 6159348 bytes, checksum: 5978e3ca5ff417ce94712c998e8c5c8a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017 / Na modalidade de ensino a dist?ncia, os Ambientes Virtuais de Aprendizagem (AVAs) s?o elementos fundamentais no processo de ensino e aprendizagem, atrav?s da disponibiliza??o de conte?dos e ?reas de discuss?o e comunica??o entre os atores do processo. Entretanto, tais ambientes, na sua maioria, caracterizam-se pelo fato de serem est?ticos, abordando m?todos pedag?gicos gen?ricos atrav?s dos quais estudantes com caracter?sticas e Estilos de Aprendizagem (EAs) diferentes buscam o conhecimento. Dessa maneira, ? importante que sejam levados em considera??o os EAs de cada estudante como forma de tornar a aprendizagem mais eficaz. Question?rios psicom?tricos na maioria das vezes s?o utilizados para que as caracter?sticas de aprendizagem do estudante sejam identificadas, por?m nem sempre tais question?rios apresentam resultados precisos quanto ao EAs de determinado estudante. Assim, faz-se necess?ria a utiliza??o de outras t?cnicas de detec??o, haja vista que uma identifica??o precisa ? capaz de melhorar o processo de aprendizagem por meio de escolhas de estrat?gias pedag?gicas melhores. Diante disso, surge a necessidade de utiliza??o de sistemas inteligentes que se adaptem ?s caracter?sticas de aprendizagem do estudante, utilizando como pressupostos as experi?ncias vivenciadas por ele e as an?lises estat?sticas dessas experi?ncias. Isso pode ser feito atrav?s de avalia??es dos EAs apresentados pelo estudante, em que a partir dos resultados um novo modelo de aprendizagem do estudante ? definido para que o conte?do seja disponibilizado de acordo com esse modelo. Nesse intuito a presente abordagem objetivou identificar e corrigir os EAs do estudante por meio da utiliza??o do conceito de M?dia M?vel Exponencialmente Ponderada no processo de decis?o sobre a aplica??o do refor?o de maneira a ajustar o Modelo do Estudante (ME), de modo que os resultados obtidos, ap?s a realiza??o do teste estat?stico n?o-param?trico de Mann-Whitney, mostraram-se significativamente melhores do que os resultados apresentados por Dor?a (2012), cujo trabalho foi refer?ncia para o desenvolvimento desta proposta. / Disserta??o (Mestrado Profissional) ? Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Educa??o, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, 2017. / In Distance Learning, Learning Management Systems (LMS) are extremely important elements in teaching and learning process, because they can offer content and spaces of discussion and comunication between people who are part of that process. However they are static and do not consider students? Learning Styles (LS) to show the content, they just use the same pedagogical methods for all learners. It is important to consider students? Learning Styles because this can make the learning process more efective. Most of the time people use Psychometric Instruments to detect students? preferences, but sometimes the outcomes of those methods are not precise. Because of this other techniques of detection of LS can be used to identify precisely the student?s LS and consequently to choose better pedagogical strategies than when are used manual techniques of detection of LS. For this reason intelligent systems which adapt to students? learning characteristics get importance since they use experiences and statistical analysis over these experiences to be adaptive. It can be done based on learner?s Learning Styles that are adjusted by a part of the system, then these new LS are used by another part of the system to select a pedagogical strategy which fit to student?s characteristics. Thus, this work presents an approach which aimed to identify and to correct the Learning Styles of the learner using for this the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) concept. This concept was used to decide if reinforcement signs have to be used to make the student?s modeling. This approach was tested and the outcomes were submitted to non parametric test Mann-Whitney which pointed they were significantly better than the results of Dor?a (2012), whose work was the base of the work presented here.

The aim of the thesis was assess the usefulness of different methods of technical and fundamental analysis in the trading of securities on the stock exchange. Choose the appropriate investment strategy for a particular industry.First has been performed a calculation of the theory efficient markets. For this purpose has been used two tests, correlation tests and runs test. The theory of market efficiency was demonstrated. But still has been performed the calculation of active strategies.Then was made the technical analysis. We used moving averages and oscillators, RSI, ROC and momentum. Based on these tests, we can´t select an appropriate investment strategy.Final test was carry out with using fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis consist from testing addiction of revenue at coefficient alfa. Sector services shown 0. And at other sectors amount to possitive values. In last of all I advised pasive strategy.

The purpose of this thesis was to analyze selected sectors of the stock exchange through methods of technical and fundamental analysis and to find the most appropriate investment strategy based on the results. At first were subjected to corell and runs tests. These tests should have proven or disproven the existence of weak form of efficiency. In the fundamental analysis was chosen the method of comparation of alpha coefficient and average monthly revenues. The technical analysis tested of moving averages and monitoring the signals using oscillators. The last step was a comparison of investment methods and strategies, found investment strategy and made a investment porfolio.

本研究針對台股期貨與現貨價差、成交量與技術指標融合之期貨交易策略進行獲利分析，以台股期貨與現貨的價差為主體，融合傳統技術指標和量價關係作為進場買賣台股期貨的訊號與指標，採用資料為2001年至2016年加權指數與台指期貨一分鐘資料，經過實證研究後發現，正價差放空與逆價差做多其績效表現優於正價差做多與逆價差放空，這與坊間的使用方法大為不同，另外經過實證結果，我們可以得知，若要以量價關係作為交易策略與指標，長期下來成交量增加做多與成交量減少放空績效較佳，若要以均線作為交易策略與指標，長期下來指數在均線之上做多與指數在均線之下放空績效較佳，也經由實證結果得知，價差策略可以藉由價差濾網與考量除權息因素進行調整，使價差策略績效表現更為突出，另一方面，也實證出價差策略融合成交量形成的新策略，績效表現優於價差策略融合均線形成的策略，本研究最後將價差策略融合成交量形成的新策略，考慮了價差濾網與除權息因素進行改良，並且與大盤績效進行比較，實證結果得知價差策略融合成交量作為的交易策略，績效表現可以擊敗大盤，我們最後將資料區分為兩個時間區間，將價差策略融合成交量的策略進行穩健性檢定，發現在兩個不同時間區間下，策略的績效無明顯差異，因此我們可以說此策略長期下來具有穩定性，這有利於未來進行交易。 / This study focus on profit analysis of futures trading strategy with stock price spread, quantity and technical indicators in Taiwan. With the price spread between the stock index and the futures as main topic, we fusion traditional technical analysis indicators and the relationship of trading volume and price as our signal and indicator to setup a futures trading strategy. Our research data use one-minute data frequency of Taiwan weighted stock index and Taiwan index futures from 2001 to 2016 as analysis period. The empirical result shows that to short sale if bull spread is occurred and to going long if bear spread shows up have better performance than its opposite activity, which is different from the method people use in general. This study also finds that if we attempt to utilize the relationship of trading volume and price as trading strategy and indicator, going long if trading volume increase and to short sale if trading volume decrease will work better in long run period. If we are going to use the moving average as trading strategy and indicators, that we go long for price above the moving average of the stock index and short sale for price below the moving average of the stock will more proper in long run period. Empirical results also demostrate that through spread filter and ex-dividend factor consideration spread strategy can be adjusted accordingly so that spread strategy performance can be more prominent. On the other hand, this study also proves that the performance of new strategy, formed through integration of spread strategy and trading volume strategy, is better than the integration of spread strategy and moving average strategy. Finally, this study integrates the spread strategy and trading volume strategy to formed new strategy, taking into account the improvement of the spread filter and the ex-dividend factor, then compares it with the market performance. The results show that the spread strategy integration with trading volume as a trading strategy and performance indicators can beat the market. We first divide the data into two cycles, then we perfom robustness test to the integration of spread strategy and trading volume strategy. We find out that under both cycles the strategy shows similar result. Thus, we can conclude that this strategy is stabile in long run and would be beneficial in future trading.

The aim of this paper is to investigate various versions of the Phillips curve and their inflation forecasting ability for Euro Area. We consider autoregressive distributed lag models and use two types of trend estimation -- successive (the trend is estimated before the remaining parameters are) and join, using exponential smoothing. The versions of the Phillips curve are evaluated by rolling and recursive window methods, various selection criteria for lag variables and different combination of the inflation indicators. To evaluate the forecasted values, we calculate the RMSE in three 7-year periods: 1993-1999 (run up Euro area), 2000-2006 (stable inflation period) and 2007-2013 (financial crisis). According to all our modifications, we find some models which achieve satisfying results in terms of the RMSE, albeit not for all forecasting periods. We notice that some models are satisfactory only in the stable period however not in the periods with low inflation and vice versa.

This diploma thesis deals with the design of automated trading system for trading the currency market. On the basis of technical indicators is created a trading system in MQL4 for the MetaTrader4 platform. Part of the thesis is optimization of the proposed system and testing on historical data in order to increase stability and maximize profit.

The thesis analyzes the network traffic on a router with open source firmware. First is chosen a software platform, based on compatibility with available equipment. Then are assessed properties necessary for the development of custom applications. Support for various programming languages provided by the SDK, development environment and the available modules and libraries, for working with network interface. Based on these factors is then chose method to realize the program. He is implemented on the OpenWRT firmware in C / C + + using network library pcap. These funds are used to capture and analyze network traffic. Obtained data are processed using methods of technical analysis, namely on the basis of moving averages, Stochastic oscillator and Bollinger bands. Based on results of these methods are generated and verified estimates of traffic. They are based on linear extrapolation, simplified for fixed intervals. The validity of each method is verified on base of the estimated value. Method is verified if estimated value of the traffic volume is in the Bollinger band, which is given by the standard deviation. Each method is tested several times in real traffic with different input parameters. Then is evaluated the influence of parameters on the error rate of methods. Individual methods are compared and evaluated based on the behavior in different scenarios and based on the average relative error.

This diploma thesis is focused on the general characteristics of the technical analysis, definitions of the information sources and technical analyses. Main attention is given to the particular indicators of the technical analysis. Practical part of this thesis includes applying of the defined indicators in the evaluation of the money market situation.

This thesis deals with design, optimization and testing of an automated trading system intended for trading CFD contracts. The strategy is based on a combination of a moving average and a custom indicator, which gives signals based on convergence of signals of other monitored indicators. The designed automated trading system also contains a simple, but efficient money management. It is responsible for risking a constant portion of current account balance on each trade. The thesis continues with comparison of three ways to optimize chosen input parameters and comparison of performance of the strategy for ten tested market symbols.