The development of nuclear weapons and their proliferation: A comparison of Iran and North Korea Master Thesis Author: Martin Marek Supervisor: PhDr. Vít Střítecký, M.Phil., Ph.D. Year: 2016 Abstract The text deals with nuclear proliferation in the cases of Iran and North Korea. The motives of nuclear ambitions are examined using models of Scott D. Sagan and other selected theoretical concepts. Gradual analysis of exposed states in the perspective of historical development, national security, domestic politics and norms forms the basis for understanding the perception of nuclear weapons by these states and approach to them as to a mean to accomplish certain objectives. Subsequent comparison reveals both similarities and difference between examined states in the perspective of motives of nuclear proliferation and shows explanatory potential of each model, which is various, in given cases. The effort of ensuring national security seems to be the strongest motive in both examined cases. It is followed by domestic influences, whereas norms stand rather for additional factor. Nevertheless, variety in explanatory power of the models is apparent in the cases of Iran and North Korea, notably in relation with their limitations. Other factors, such as regime type or parallel development of other type of weapons of...

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-03-21T12:11:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Raquel de Bessa Gontijo de Oliveira.pdf: 2010350 bytes, checksum: 3bb9fd16aab66146e3196022202d4a1c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-21T12:11:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Raquel de Bessa Gontijo de Oliveira.pdf: 2010350 bytes, checksum: 3bb9fd16aab66146e3196022202d4a1c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-26 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Nuclear weapons proliferation represents a yet unsolved problem in the international security agenda, and it is intimately related to ballistic missile proliferation. Specialized literature on this topic contains different hypotheses about what causes proliferation, which can be distinguished between those that refer to states’ demand for these weapons, and those that emphasize the role of supply, represented by states’ access to sensitive technology through international civil cooperation. In this research, we investigate the role that different factors play in influencing states’ decision to acquire or relinquish nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and we contrapose forces related to demand and supply. Through a quantitative analysis, we identify some relevant correlations, among which the relevance of insecurity as a driving force of proliferation and the apparent irrelevance of access to technology through international cooperation are particularly noteworthy. From our statistical analysis, we select the case of Canadian non-acquisition to be the object of more detained investigation, through which we confirmed the importance of the security context and the marginal role of access to technology, besides identifying an influence of identity aspects on the non-acquisition policy. In light of this, we conclude that factors relating to demand have a far larger impact on proliferation than factors relating to supply / A proliferação de armamentos nucleares representa um problema ainda não solucionado na agenda de segurança internacional, e está intimamente relacionada à proliferação de mísseis balísticos. A literatura sobre este tópico contém diferentes hipóteses sobre o que causa a proliferação, as quais podem ser distinguidas entre aquelas que se referem à demanda que os Estados têm por esses armamentos e aquelas que enfatizam o papel da oferta, ou seja, da facilidade de acesso à tecnologia sensível através da cooperação civil internacional. Nesta pesquisa, investigamos o papel de diferentes elementos sobre as decisões dos Estados de adquirirem, ou não, armamentos nucleares e mísseis balísticos, contrapondo as forças relacionadas à demanda e à oferta. Através de uma análise quantitativa, identificamos algumas correlações relevantes, com destaque para a importância da insegurança como uma força motriz da proliferação e a aparente irrelevância do acesso à tecnologia através de acordos de cooperação internacional. A partir de nossa análise estatística, selecionamos o caso da não-aquisição canadense como objeto para uma investigação mais detida, em que confirmamos a importância do contexto de segurança e o papel marginal do acesso à tecnologia, além de identificarmos uma influência de aspectos identitários sobre a decisão de não-aquisição. Diante disso, concluímos que os fatores relativos à demanda têm impacto muito superior sobre a proliferação do que fatores relacionados à oferta

Energy production systems are essential for human progress. They fuel the technologies that underpin economic growth and are prerequisite for efficient food production, education and healthcare. On the flip side, they also incur substantial eco-social costs. Hence, finding and promoting sustainable means of energy production is a key topic within the Environmental Sciences. This thesis examines the sustainability of nuclear power, by comparing its social, economic and ecological impacts to those of wind and solar power. The assessment is performed using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), with a Weighted Sum scoring system and a Distance-To-Target weighting scheme. The selection and the weighting of the indicators are grounded in the Planetary Boundaries framework, the Oxfam Doughnut Economics model and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, and the technologies are compared on 9 axes of evaluation; greenhouse gas emissions, land-take requirements, material throughput, non-recyclable wastes, toxic and radioactive wastes, negative health impacts, economic costs, intermittency and energy return on energy invested. The thesis finds nuclear power to be the most sustainable option according to all but three indicators, and in the unified analysis, it outcompetes wind and solar by a factor of 2 and 3 respectively. Also notable is that solar power does not excel in a single impact category; it has the highest greenhouse gas emissions, the largest land-take, and it is costly, intermittent and energy-inefficient. It is also a source of toxic pollution, the effects of which cannot yet be determined. Although wind is more competitive, it consumes vast amounts of physical resources, generates a lot of waste, and its land-take is at least 10 times higher than that of nuclear power. In addition to the MCA, the thesis investigates three perceived threats that are often raised in criticisms of nuclear power; the risk of nuclear fuel depletion, the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation and the risk of catastrophic nuclear accidents. The results show that many popular arguments against the technology are loosely aligned with reality, and the thesis as a whole presents a challenge to the notion that nuclear power is a dangerous and unsustainable energy source.