台股基金淨資產規模在2007年10月底創下5,251億元台幣高水位後，隨即因全球次貸危機而一路挫低至2009年1月的2,283億元台幣，衰退幅度高達56.5%。之後雖逐漸自風暴中走出，但至今仍未再現5,000億元規模時之風華。因此，台股基金市場成長受限之論點四處流竄。為客觀實證台股基金市場未來成長性之可能走向，本研究擬運用複迴歸分析模型探討市場論點--「台股基金市場成長性受限」之可信度。 本研究係以台股基金單位數月變動量為被解釋變數，並擇取外銷訂單月變動量、台銀一年期定存利率月變動量、台灣加權指數月底收盤變動量、外資月買/賣超金額、整體台股基金平均月報酬率相對大盤月報酬率、整體台股基金Sharpe ratio相對大盤Sharpe ratio、台股基金月變動檔數、ETF單位數月變動量、境外基金業務、全權委託業務、1997亞洲金融風暴及2007全球次貸危機等12項數列為解釋變數，進行必要之調整後，以複迴歸模型分析而得具顯著解釋力之模型。 而分析模型中的12個解釋變數，有8個變數p-value在5%顯著水準之下，具顯著解釋力。僅外銷訂單月變動量、ETF單位數月變動量、境外基金業務及2007全球次貸危機對台股基金單位數變動量之解釋力不顯著。 此外，複迴歸分析模型所呈現之樣本外預測值僅於窄幅中波動，顯示2010/11-2011/12台股基金單位數預測值變動幅度不大。而Holt Winters所呈現之預測值更顯露出疲態，呈現一等差下降趨勢。此分析結果正與市場論點--「台股基金市場成長性受限」一說相呼應。 / October 2007, net assets of Taiwan domestic equity funds reached the historical high, NT$ 525.1billion. After that, net assets setback to NT$ 228.3 billion in January 2009 due to global subprime mortgage crisis, declining by as much as 56.5%. Although the market has gradually ridden out the crisis, the fund scale has not yet retrieved the plateau of NT$ 500 billion. Therefore, an argument is ubiquitous in the market which implies that the growth potential of Taiwan domestic equity fund has been capped. For verifying the credibility of this argument, the empirical study would apply for multiple regression to research it. This study defines monthly changes in Taiwan domestic equity fund units as a dependent variable. 8 out of 12 explanatory variables which p-values are below the 5% significance level tend to reject the null hypotheses. That represents these variables are significantly explanatory. Monthly changes in the amount of export orders, monthly changes ETF units, offshore fund business and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis are only 4 variables which are not significantly explanatory for dependent variable. In addition, multiple regression analysis model shows that fund unit forecasts from Nov. 2010 to Dec. 2011 fluctuate in a very narrow range. That reveals the forecasted fund units among Nov. 2010 – Dec. 2011 just have modest changes. At the same time, the forecasted fund units from Holt Winters expose the weakness, showing a downward trend in arithmetic. Both of results from multiple regression and Holt Winters seem to identically echo the market argument –‘the growth potential of Taiwan domestic equity fund market has been capped.’

《境外基金管理辦法》的實施是台灣基金市場發展的一個重要里程碑，意味著我國境外基金市場之新時代來臨，讓原先「不能銷售、只能推薦」境外基金業者放膽招兵買馬。國內核准的境外基金數目已超過700檔，正式宣告境外基金進入戰國時代，如何打響名號，讓投資人印象深刻，進而願意放心將錢交由這些公司來管理，將是業者面臨的最大挑戰。 本文以相關文獻探討為研究基礎，並以總代理之基金數較多、規模較大、較具代表性之總代理人進行個案訪談，同時輔以對投資人之問卷調查，剖析境外基金總代理人的STP行銷策略、4P行銷組合策略，以及關鍵成功因素，歸納出相關研究結論如下： ■STP行銷策略：市場區隔主要變數為顧客類型、所得及年齡。三大目標市場分別為理財專員、法人與高所得大戶，以及小額投資人。在市場定位方面，定位為專業投資顧問以提供穩健優質的商品與服務。 ■產品策略：「產品績效」最為重要，能提供績效表現優異的基金，才能提高顧客之滿意度。「附加價值」為次重要，包含服務品質、知名度與形象、買賣的便利性、投資標的，以及商品的廣度（包含基金類型與數量）等。 ■通路策略：以銀行為主要銷售管道，並建立保險與證券等新的通路之合夥關係。成立直銷部隊搶攻法人機構及金字塔頂端的高所得客戶。建置電子商務部門以逐步開拓小額投資人市場。 ■促銷策略：業者最常使用的促銷工具為說明會，並密集舉辦理財專員的教育訓練課程，提供大量的文宣DM，同時與理專形成緊密的夥伴關係。 ■價格策略：由銷售通路端不定期作手續費的折扣促銷，業者為了避免削價競爭引發不當後果，試圖以優質、專業的服務取代價格大戰。 ■關鍵成功因素：精準鎖定關鍵顧客、開發與管理綿密的行銷通路、創造價值的行銷活動、運用充沛資源進而贏得客戶口碑、每個投資流程都作化顧客關係管理、視員工為最重要的資產、強化媒體關係等。

證券投資信託基金已是國人重要的理財主要工具之一。回顧我國證券投資信託基金發展的歷史，從早期為吸引外資投資我國而開放設立證券投資信託基金，接著也成為我國投資人重要之投資工具，到後來開放境外基金得以在國內顧問，境外商品就此開始深受國人喜愛；直至證券投資信託及顧問法通過，主管機關依授權訂定境外基金管理辦法後，國人得投資經由總代理人依法向主管機關申請核准或申報生效在我國境內募集銷售之境外基金，也開啟了境外基金與證券投資信託基金於國內銷售既競爭又合作之關係。 境外基金與證券投資信託基金於國內銷售之競爭合作的關係，不僅在產品創新及銷售金額等方面，本文所關切的是，在境外基金管理辦法公佈實施後，我國證券投資信託基金相關法規發生了什麼變化？有無任何規定是因為境外基金管理辦法實施後，證券投資信託基金相關法規不得不隨之調整者？還有，有無任何境外基金的規範進而影響我國既有之規定？當然，是否也有境外基金業者因為境外基金管理辦法的實施，必須調整其基金的運作與內控制度，以符合我國之法令規定？甚至，有無任何境外基金註冊地，為配合我國市場及法制環境，而更改其法令者？ 本文之研究係以比較我國證券投資信託基金相關規範，與境外基金管理辦法暨我國境外基金主要註冊地之法源，尋找彼此規範不同處，了解其為何規範不同的理由與背景，探討規範不同點之存在理由合理否，進而探詢彼此間之衡平性，以作為提供我國基金產業法律發展之參考資料。 最後結論除回覆前述問題並舉例說明外，並嘗試歸納本文之研究結果，對證券投資信託基金與境外基金之法制規範差異性比較，採見解扼要衡平重申外，並期對我國基金產業之整體發展提供建言。 / The securities investment trust fund is one of the important financial investment vehicles in Taiwan. Looking back on the history of Taiwan fund industry development, from the early days of fund launch to attract foreign investments to these modern days that funds become important investment tools for the investors. Soon later the offshore funds were open to the domestic consultants, they began to be a favored investment product for many investors. After the Securities Investment Trust and Consulting Act takes effect, the regulator prescribed the Regulations Governing Offshore Funds. The local investors may invest in the offshore funds that have obtained authorizations from the regulator, which contribute to not only the competition but also cooperation by and between the offshore funds and the securities investment trust funds in Taiwan. The competition/cooperation between the offshore funds and the securities investment trust funds can be seen at not only the product innovation or domestic sales. More importantly, this thesis concerns more on what are the regulatory initiatives that have been taken for the securities investment trust funds due to the promulgation of the Regulations Governing Offshore Funds. Are there any requirements of the securities investment trust funds that will need adjustments or amendments after the implementation of Regulations Governing Offshore Funds? Also, what are the impacts on the current rules and regulations after the birth of offshore fund regulations? Of course, will the offshore funds managers need to adjust their operation and internal control system to be in compliance with the laws and regulations in Taiwan? Will any offshore funds domicile jurisdiction change their respective laws in order to meet the requirements set fort by the market and legal environment in Taiwan? This thesis uses a comparative study of the related laws of the securities investment trust funds and the Regulations Governing Offshore Funds as well as the directives of UCITS, the original law of most of the offshore funds. To realize what is the specification of their difference and to explore the rationality of their difference. Moreover, to seek the balance of inquires among them, so as to contribute to the fund industry in Taiwan as the reference for legal development. Finally, the thesis tries to summarize the results of this study in addition to replying to the above questions with some examples. After the comparison of the legal systems between the related laws of securities investment trust funds and that of offshore funds, this thesis briefly reiterates the opinion of the balancing and provides concrete and workable suggestions to further the development of the fund industry in Taiwan.