近年來股票型基金規模持續減少、受益人數亦大幅降低，相較於國外股票型基金仍佔有相當比重而言，顯的突兀。其主因為長期績效不佳，投資人已對其失去信心。 本文探討績效不佳的原因，主要在募集時點對於基金所形成之影響，進而推論利率、匯率、貨幣供給對於時點之影響。其中以日本資產泡沫、東亞金融風暴、美國科技泡沫為例，說明其影響性。並以過去以募集的股票型基金在相對評估的高、低點驗證其績效。 進一步將募集時點的影響因子與模式，轉換成操作時點，並運用在被動式管理與長期操作之退休基金中，希望國內投信與投資人能重新在基金的操作與投資獲取報酬，藉以達到本文探討之意義。

近年共同基金已經成為投資大眾的新寵兒，ㄧ般以基金之投資標的與投資風格來區分為各種基金型態，且關於不同基金之投資績效的研究便成為了學者鑽研的目標。投資人常常對於學者們所提出之績效衡量方法感到困惑，究竟是那一種衡量指標才是最正確的？或者是不論利用那ㄧ種指標皆可以得到相同的結果？此外，前期的投資績效與後期的投資績效間，兩者是否具有相關性，即表示以前好是否代表未來ㄧ定好。這些問題皆是投資共同基金之大眾所關注的焦點，本文依據此目的，著手進行研究，冀期為投資大眾帶來更精確的分析。 本研究以國內平衡型基金作為研究主體，研究期間為2003年5月至2007年2月，並區分為績效排名前20名與隨機抽取20檔基金，種樣本進行試驗。關於本研究的結論，敘述如下: 一、 在國內平衡型基金中，績效衡量方法具有一致性； 二、 國內平衡型基金並沒有前後期績效的持續性； 三、 國內平衡型之績效表現與大盤相比較不具投資效率。

臺灣公務人員退休撫卹基金（退撫基金）自1995年成立，由退撫基金管理委員會統一管理，按政府別、身分別，分戶設帳，分別以收支平衡為原則，但依據2003年退撫基金第2次精算結果(美世顧問公司)，軍職人員自2013年、教育人員2032年及公務人員2035年起，將陸續產生累積虧損（破產），主要原因為退休制度本身結構問題、提撥率不足所致，其次為經營績效無法大幅提升，原因為管理組織屬性欠彈性、專業人才不足、管理法令束縛及資產配置較保守，對於現有制度與管理之缺失，如何檢討改善，以提高收益，確保基金之永續發展，為本研究之重點。 本研究採用制度分析比較，藉由退撫基金與先進國家退休金計畫與管理制度加以比較，瞭解臺灣與其他國家退休管理制度上之差異，並探討未來世界退休制度管理趨勢。並蒐集勞工保險基金、勞工退休基金及公教保險準備金等基金相關資料，再與退撫基金作管理運用之比較研究，另外，與退撫基金同質型國外退休基金管理模式之相關研究文獻，作分析比較研究，依投資組合模型計算出最適資產配置，以瞭解退撫基金經營管理之效率性。 / 茲據研究結果發現，退撫基金管理係屬行政機構，管理較無彈性，另外退休撫卹制度設計而產生龐大潛藏負債，以及管理法令限制而影響營運績效。最後，針對研究結果提出對退撫基金管理之建議。就管理機構建議改為行政法人或提高委外比例。對退撫制度之潛藏負債問題建議為：逐步修改退撫制度，先實施退休所得合理化、展期年金，對於新進公務人員採用個人帳戶制，並依個人風險偏好，選擇不同的管理模式。對於管理制度建議為增加國外投資、資本利得比例、擴大投資範圍及建立資訊公開制度。 / The Public Service Pension Fund (PSPF) of Republic of China was established in 1995. On the principle of collection/payment balance, the Management Board of Public Service Pension Fund (MBPSPF) is in charge of management of the PSPF by setting up different independent accounts in accordance with the capacities and governmental levels. The outcome of actuarial evaluation conducted in the year 2003 forecasted the accumulated net loss (insolvency) will respectively happen to the military personnel in the beginning year of 2013, the educational workers in the beginning year of 2032 and the public servants in the beginning year of 3035. The factors will result in the accumulated net loss (insolvency) mainly include incomplete framework of the public service pension system and insufficient contribution rate. Due to inelastic organization and framework, shortage of professional personnel, constraint of the laws and regulations and conservative strategies of assets allocation, overall performance can not be improved substantially is also the minor factor that will result in the accumulated net loss. The key point of this study will focus on eliminating the defects of the present system and administration and making improvement to increase overall earnings, thus continuing operation of the PSPF can be ensured. / This study adopts a measure of system analysis and comparison. In comparing with pension project and administration system of mainly advanced countries, the difference between Taiwan and other advanced countries cab be realized. Thus we can further discuss and explore the future global trend of pension administration. Besides mention above, the related information of Labor Insurance Fund, Labor Pension Fund, and the insurance reserve of public servants and education workers was collected, studied, and compared with the PSPF. Furthermore, the PSPF was compared with abroad pension funds which have same attributes of PSPF by analyzing the related studies of administration or operation. And accordingly, an optimal model of assets allocation was designed for further testing and understanding the efficiency of administration of the PSPF. From this research, the followings were discovered: 1. An administrative institution such as the PSPF with no corporation register, make administration inelastic. 2. The designed system of the “Contributory Pension Fund” will result in potential enormous debts. 3. The constraint of laws and regulations will result in ineffective overall performance. Finally, regarding to the inelastic administration (as of description 1), an ideal proposal is to register the PSPF as a corporation or increase proportion of overseas discretionary management. As to the potential enormous debts (as of description 2), the proposals are to improve the system of “Contributory Pension Fund” step by step, adopt a fair and reasonable retirement income, extend the time limit of annuity, adopt an individual account for a new public servant and manage the account in accordance with his or her risk attitude. As to the ineffective overall performance (as of description 3), the proposals are to increase the proportion of overseas investment and capital gains, extend the range of investment and establish system of information disclosure.

自民國91年下半年起，佔債券型基金投資比重甚高的公司債與金融債的發行票面利率，已悄悄地自習慣中的固定利率，轉而採用浮動計價的利率，連結標的為國內商業本票利率或是美元倫敦銀行拆款市場利率，這其中又以反浮動利率債券為主；本研究將介紹91 ~93年來公司債的發行概況，來探討其對債券型基金所帶來之利率風險、流動性風險及資本利損狀況。

縱觀世界各國基金發展的歷史，絕大多數最初都是以發展封閉型基金為主，待累積了一定的經驗後，逐漸過渡到封閉型基金和開放型基金並重，最終實現開放型基金占主導地位。因此，從某種意義上來說，基金發展史就是從封閉型基金走向開放型基金的歷史。目前中國大陸基金產業正面臨著這樣的一個轉型問題，尤其是在2007年上半年，不少封閉型基金紛紛到期，「封轉開」程式也紛紛開始啟動，如何在這樣一個時程，以有效的轉型機制成功的帶動起中國大陸基金產業邁入更繁盛的景況？中國大陸是否可以從其他國家的轉型模式吸取經驗，從而應用在其基金市場上？以及，台灣基金產業是否也可以提供相關的經驗分享？本文對這些問題皆進行了相關的分析及探討，也希望能從中獲得有益於台灣基金產業發展的不同看法或結論。

根據投信投顧公會統計數據，近年來台灣地區共同基金淨資產總值維持至少新台幣2兆元的水準，2007年底時甚至一度突破新台幣4兆元，由此可知共同基金在台灣地區投資人投資選擇中所佔重要性。另外近年來隨著大陸經濟的快速成長，大陸金融市場也逐漸成為國內外基金重要的投資訴求。因此本論文將從台灣投資人的角度出發，探討如何藉由各類基金績效評估指標，在以投資大陸股市為號召的各檔主要市場中國股票共同基金中進行選擇。 / 本論文選取了九檔市場交易量大、曾經在台灣熱銷或上市交易的共同基金，範圍包含了國內投信募集基金、境外基金以及ETF。資料期間為2006年元月至2008年十二月、資料頻率為月資料。研究方法所採用之迴歸模型有以下兩者，CAPM單因子迴歸模型、衡量基金經理人擇時選股能力的Treynor & Mazuy模型。所採用之基金績效指標有平均月報酬率、累積報酬率、月報酬率波動度、beta值、Treynor指標、Sharpe指標、Jensen指標及擇時選股能力指標。 / 最後實證結果如下。收益指標：大陸及香港上市的ETF表現最佳，表現最差的則是國內募集基金及台灣上市ETF。風險指標：總風險及beta值最低的是國內募集基金及ETF，最高的則是大陸及香港上市的ETF。風險調整後收益指標：深證100ETF的表現最好，至於國泰大中華基金與寶來台商ETF則是表現最差。擇時選股能力指標：缺乏足夠的證據證明基金經理人具有擇時選股能力。 / 隨著中國大陸經濟的快速成長，中國股票共同基金的募集相信會是未來的重要趨勢。但目前台灣地區針對中國股票共同基金的相關研究較少，希望藉由這篇論文的撰寫，可以帶動更多這方面議題的研究與探討。

最近十幾年，共同基金在世界各國迅速發展，在美國與歐洲已經成為一般大眾的主要理財工具，全世界共同基金規模於2003年第3季達到12.8兆美元。中國在1998年設立第一家基金公司以來，基金業仍屬產業之初期，隨著經濟持續高速成長，國民平均所得逐漸提高，未來經濟發展潛力可觀。基金投資，漸成趨勢，基金市場整體發展，潛力無限。 本研究著重於中國基金市場發展與資訊策略運用之探討，分析現況與未來發展方向。同時經由對中國基金產業發展與個案公司的研究，探討分析基金業在國際上之發展過程，可否推展到中國，並且分析資訊策略與資訊系統在產業快速成長過程中所扮演的角色及其重要性。 本研究主要研究結果及發現如下： 一、在本研究中綜合歸納出基金公司可著重的主要經營策略，其中以投資管理能力為最重要核心能力。 二、與全球共同基金大本營美國相比，中國共同基金業仍在起步階段。在法令逐漸放寬，新基金公司紛紛設立，競爭加劇的情況下，可以預見這個產業將會更為蓬勃發展。 三、中國成為世界貿易組織(WTO)第143位正式會員後，根據入世承諾對外資開放基金業股權限制，目前外資已可投資基金公司股權33％，中國國內基金公司已面臨來自國際大型專業投資機構激烈競爭。 四、中國基金市場的整體市場滲透率還很低，未來隨著中國整體經濟成長，投資人財富增加，市場規模將可快速成長，投資人數也會呈幾何倍數成長。面對商機與挑戰，中國基金業應做好長遠規劃，迎接商機來臨，未來中國有很大潛力出現世界級的大型基金公司。 五、在業務方面，貨幣型基金及全權委託投資業務，在中國仍在起步階段，可以大力發展。同時，應掌握電子商務發展的契機，積極推展網路交易。 六、中國人口眾多，在龐大的潛在客戶群背後，需要高效能的後台電腦系統支援，其中以註冊登記系統與網路交易系統最為重要。基金公司可預先做好準備，迎接未來業務高速成長的時刻。 七、在面對產業競爭越來越激烈，應擬定完善資訊發展策略，將資訊技術充份運用於開發新產品，創新服務，取得競爭優勢，充分把握後發先至的契機。 八、中國基金公司的發展過程，企業經營策略與資訊策略尤其重要，在大市場經營，必須要有大格局，各項基礎建設，必須在早期規劃清楚，才可為未來長遠發展奠定穩固基石。 / In the past decade, the mutual fund industry developed very fast. It has already become a very popular investment tool in U.S.A. and Europe. In the third quarter of 2003, the global total asset under this industry’s management was US$12.8 trillion. China set up the first fund company in 1998. Although China is still at the early stage of this industry, accompanying with the fast economic growth rate and the strength of its economy, mutual funds will gain popularity in China. This research focuses on the China mutual fund market development and IT strategies. From the research and case study, it not only analyzed whether the experiences of other markets can be applied in China but also analyzed the importance of IT systems and IT strategies to the Chinese mutual fund industry. The outcomes of this research are as follows: 1. Several core competences are identified and the investment management ability is the most important one. 2. Compared to the U.S.A. mutual fund industry, China’s market is smaller. However, after regulations are more open about setting up new fund companies, many new fund companies were set up. We can foresee that the mutual fund industry in China will commence an era of rapid growth. 3. After China becoming a member of WTO, foreign institutions have been allowed to set up joint venture. Now local fund companies are encountering global competition from joint venture fund companies. 4. In China, with the low market penetration rate, the high economic growth and the increasing individual personal income, the market will grow very fast in the future. Facing this business opportunity and challenge, all fund companies should prepare for long-term strategic planning. 5. Money market funds and discretionary account business are at an emerging stage. All fund companies in China should input more resources to develop this market. 6. China has a population of 1.3 billion, so the potential customer database will be huge in order to cater for the future business growth. Fund companies should pay more attention to this area, especially to the Transfer Agency system and EC system. 7. To be competitive, China’s fund companies must set up IT strategies and adopt IT technologies for designing new products and new services to pave the way for future business growth. 8. In a kind of market with such huge potential, business vision and IT strategies are the most important factors to a company’s future success. The infrastructure must be ready before the market is booming.

台股基金淨資產規模在2007年10月底創下5,251億元台幣高水位後，隨即因全球次貸危機而一路挫低至2009年1月的2,283億元台幣，衰退幅度高達56.5%。之後雖逐漸自風暴中走出，但至今仍未再現5,000億元規模時之風華。因此，台股基金市場成長受限之論點四處流竄。為客觀實證台股基金市場未來成長性之可能走向，本研究擬運用複迴歸分析模型探討市場論點--「台股基金市場成長性受限」之可信度。 本研究係以台股基金單位數月變動量為被解釋變數，並擇取外銷訂單月變動量、台銀一年期定存利率月變動量、台灣加權指數月底收盤變動量、外資月買/賣超金額、整體台股基金平均月報酬率相對大盤月報酬率、整體台股基金Sharpe ratio相對大盤Sharpe ratio、台股基金月變動檔數、ETF單位數月變動量、境外基金業務、全權委託業務、1997亞洲金融風暴及2007全球次貸危機等12項數列為解釋變數，進行必要之調整後，以複迴歸模型分析而得具顯著解釋力之模型。 而分析模型中的12個解釋變數，有8個變數p-value在5%顯著水準之下，具顯著解釋力。僅外銷訂單月變動量、ETF單位數月變動量、境外基金業務及2007全球次貸危機對台股基金單位數變動量之解釋力不顯著。 此外，複迴歸分析模型所呈現之樣本外預測值僅於窄幅中波動，顯示2010/11-2011/12台股基金單位數預測值變動幅度不大。而Holt Winters所呈現之預測值更顯露出疲態，呈現一等差下降趨勢。此分析結果正與市場論點--「台股基金市場成長性受限」一說相呼應。 / October 2007, net assets of Taiwan domestic equity funds reached the historical high, NT$ 525.1billion. After that, net assets setback to NT$ 228.3 billion in January 2009 due to global subprime mortgage crisis, declining by as much as 56.5%. Although the market has gradually ridden out the crisis, the fund scale has not yet retrieved the plateau of NT$ 500 billion. Therefore, an argument is ubiquitous in the market which implies that the growth potential of Taiwan domestic equity fund has been capped. For verifying the credibility of this argument, the empirical study would apply for multiple regression to research it. This study defines monthly changes in Taiwan domestic equity fund units as a dependent variable. 8 out of 12 explanatory variables which p-values are below the 5% significance level tend to reject the null hypotheses. That represents these variables are significantly explanatory. Monthly changes in the amount of export orders, monthly changes ETF units, offshore fund business and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis are only 4 variables which are not significantly explanatory for dependent variable. In addition, multiple regression analysis model shows that fund unit forecasts from Nov. 2010 to Dec. 2011 fluctuate in a very narrow range. That reveals the forecasted fund units among Nov. 2010 – Dec. 2011 just have modest changes. At the same time, the forecasted fund units from Holt Winters expose the weakness, showing a downward trend in arithmetic. Both of results from multiple regression and Holt Winters seem to identically echo the market argument –‘the growth potential of Taiwan domestic equity fund market has been capped.’

由於基金已經成為國人主要的投資工具，投資人投資國內或國外共同基金係在可容忍的最大風險內，以獲得最大報酬（或超過無風險利率報酬）為目標。本研究係以國內外12支基金作為研究個案，來分析何者類型基金報酬率較高，其原因是以何者因素居多；而長期績效不佳之基金其原因以何者因素居多，作為投資人投資基金決策的參考。 依本研究結果，影響共同基金報酬率之最大因素，主要係總體經濟因素，如：台灣景氣循環、景氣對策訊號燈、台灣加權股價指數水準、台灣利率水準，美國道瓊工業指數、那斯達克指數、美國fed利率、代表全球景氣榮枯的OECD全球領先指標、代表外資匯入增加本國資金動能的MSCI新興市場指數，是否調高或降低該國權重，皆會影響該國股票指數；基金經理人研究團隊的操作策略、選股能力、基金規模等次之；而基金週轉率及基金費用率因素則影響較少。 依本研究結果，購買單一國家股票型基金的報酬率是最高的，風險性也最高，必須嚴設停損。而區域國家股票型基金卻能夠分散僅投資於單一國家所需承擔的政治、經濟等系統風險，其報酬率並不輸於單一國家股票型基金，適合喜歡高報酬低風險之投資人，且較具基金績效持續性。 產業型基金係指投資特定領域的各式基金，因投資的範圍越小，其風險越高，利潤也越高，基金投資人投資該產業，須有很深入的研究，且嚴設停損。 全球型股票基金的投資標的遍佈全球型，是穩健投資人最佳選擇，全球型股票基金的特色在於可充分掌握各國股市上升的潛力，而且能夠達到分散風險的目的。一般說來，績效良好的全球型基金的平均年報酬率可達15%左右，而績效良好全球債劵型基金平均年報酬率可達10%左右，適合保守投資人。 / Managed funds are becoming an important investment vehicle in Taiwan, with investors investing in local as well as international mutual funds. Their main objective is to achieve highest return while proportionally having a lower than average risk. By studying 12 mutual funds in this case study, my investigation would like to explore the reasoning behind why some of the funds achieve higher than average return, while others do not. By doing so I can identify the characteristics of these funds, which could beneficial to investors. According to our research, In Taiwan, the rate of return from managed funds appear to be directly associated with both local and international economic factors (Macro economy). Local factors included Taiwan’s business economic cycle, Taiwan stock weighted index performance, as well as local interest/cash rates. While International factors, mainly from the US included Dow Jones & Nastaque indicies performance, Us Federal Bank’s decisions on it’s interest rates, OECD index, MSCI new market index. Furthermore, the rate of return from Managed fund can also differ according to the funds management style, investment strategy, the ability of the fund manager to recognize/ select particular stock to invest as well as the size of the fund. While its management fee structure and cash liquidity appears to be less relevant. According to our research, investing within a specific country can achieve highest return, however, it also bears the highest risk, thus must set as sell stop order. region specific fund on the other hand, can limit such political and economical risks of one specific country, while at the same time achieve similar great return as a fund that invest within one country. This fund is recommended to investors wanting higher return with lower risks. Sector specific funds invest in particular sector. The more specific the sector is, the greater risk there is, coupled with greater return. This fund should only be invested by experienced investors, must also set up sell stop order. In our opinion, global stock funds are the best choice for most investors. The advantages include its ability to experience increase exposure of rising markets in different country, at the same time spread its risk. Generally, in a good year, the global funds could achieve a rate of return of 15%, while investors should expect net return of 10%. This fund in our opinion is suited to conservative investors.

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