Many polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) are toxic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic. As a result, their effects on aquatic biota and ecosystems are of great concern. Research on PACs in aquatic biota often overlooks the role of amphibians, alkylated PACs, and sediment as an uptake route. In order to study the accumulation and toxicokinetics of PACs following sediment and aqueous exposure, and to compare the bioaccumulation potentials of parent and alkyl PACs, two accumulation-elimination experiments using wood frog tadpoles (Lithobates sylvaticus) of Gosner stage 28-32 were conducted (one evaluating exposure to contaminated sediment and water, and the other to contaminated water alone). A complementary field study was then conducted near Fort McMurray, Alberta to assess PAC body burdens in field-collected amphibian larvae, and to determine whether PAC body burdens are related to exposure to sediment and/or water in the field. The results of our studies showed that PAC concentrations and uptake rates in wood frog tadpoles were highest when they were exposed to PAC-contaminated sediment. Consequently, we determined that the dominant route of exposure of wood frog tadpoles to PACs is sediment rather than water. This finding supports other studies that have shown dietary uptake to be an important route of PAC exposure in other aquatic organisms. In both the laboratory and field study, alkyl PAC concentrations exceeded those of parent PACs in wood frog tadpoles, which also demonstrated petrogenic PAC profiles. Interestingly, parent PACs seemed to have greater bioaccumulation potential than alkyl PACs in the laboratory-exposed wood frog tadpoles (in relation to sediment), possibly due to greater bioavailability or lower metabolism of parent PACs or alternatively, due to a saturation in uptake of alkyl PACs. Nevertheless, only a few compounds, including anthracene, fluoranthene, retene, and C1-benzofluoranthenes/benzopyrenes, were found to have higher bioaccumulation potentials. Lithobates sylvaticus tadpoles seemed to be efficient at eliminating and metabolizing both parent and alkyl PACs. However, the elimination of some compounds, such as C4-naphthalenes, was not as efficient. Furthermore, C3-fluorenes and C2-dibenzothiophenes were isolated as potential markers of amphibian larvae exposure to PAC-contaminated sediment due to their positive correlation with the wetland sediment concentrations. Additional field collections in the Athabasca oil sands are warranted to verify the utility of these markers in the natural environment. Evidently, this thesis highlights the importance of including sediment exposure and alkylated PACs in toxicological and field studies of benthic and epibenthic organisms. The results of this study are the largest, most comprehensive set of toxicokinetic and bioaccumulation information of PACs (52 analytes) in the amphibian larvae Lithobates sylvaticus obtained to date.

Human activities over the years, especially the unconventional exploitation of oil sands deposits, downstream on the Athabasca River (AR), might have affected the water quality and ecological integrity of the river basin, thereby presenting a threat to the environment and human health. There have been concerns that the oil sands process-affected waters stored in tailing ponds may be percolating to surface waters as well as underground waters, contaminating neighboring watersheds with a cocktail of chemicals including Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). PAHs are present both naturally and from human activities as pollutants in the environment. Forest fires, geologic activities, and oil seeps are examples of natural sources of PAHs in the environment. The major sources of PAHs in the Athabasca region are leaching of oil sands deposits and contamination from oil sands production. On occasions, forest fires contribute PAHs in the area. There has been no comparative data on the exposure of PAHs to fish along the AR and Slave River. I used an integrative monitoring of selected fishes as an indicator to achieve four objectives: i) describe the spatial and seasonal distribution of measurable concentrations of products of biotransformation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PBPAH) in bile of fish; ii) determine the levels of parent PAHs in the muscle of fish, and extrapolate the data to estimate potential risk to human consumers, and to identify which species and geographic regions, if any, pose the greatest risk to humans; iii) use patterns of contamination to provide a scientific basis for elucidating the source of contamination; and iv) perform fish health investigation by collecting morphometric health measures and perform a systematic assessment of the occurrence of lesions in the fishes. I sampled whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), jackfish/northern pike (Esox luscius), walleye (Sander vitreus), goldeye (Hiodon alosoides) and burbot (Lota lota) from Fort McMurray, Fort McKay, and Fort Chipewyan in Alberta, and from Fort Smith and Fort Resolution on the Slave River in the Northwest Territories. The rationale for selecting fishes included: their abundance along the basin (some have short ranges, e.g., northern pike); their dietary/nutritional and cultural significance to communities in the area; their feeding strategy, such as benthic, supra-benthic, or pelagic, trophic status, and patterns of migration and habits of spawning. I addressed the first objective in Chapter 2, where the total PBPAHs were determined. Concentrations of products of biotransformation of 2 and 3-ringed, 4-ringed, and 5-ringed PAHs were measured using synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy. Spatial and seasonal differences were observed with greater concentrations of PBPAHs in samples of bile of fish collected from Fort McKay as well as greater concentrations of PBPAHs in bile of fish collected during summer compared to those collected in other seasons. Overall, PBPAHs were greater in fishes of lower trophic levels and fishes more closely associated with sediments. In particular, goldeye (Hiodon alosoides), consistently contained greater concentrations of all the PBPAHs studied. In Chapter 3, I achieved the second objective by measuring levels of parent PAHs in muscle of selected fishes and extrapolated the results to determine potential human health risks due to fish consumption. Dorsal muscle of fishes from upstream reaches of the AR close to oil sands extraction and upgrading activities, contained greater concentrations of individual PAHs than concentrations in muscle of fishes from further downstream in the Slave River. Risks posed by PAHs to humans were assessed using a B[a]P equivalents approach. According to the risk assessment results, the average lifetime risk of additional cancers for humans who consumed fish was less than 10-6. In Chapter 4, alkylated PAHs were also measured in fish muscle to achieve the third objective. The general presence of naphthalenes and phenanthrenes and the evaluation of molecular ratios (i.e., LMW/HMW alkyl-PAHs) allowed me to conclude that the major source of pollution is petrogenic, probably due to increases in oil sand activities around Fort McMurray and Fort McKay. I achieved the fourth objective in Chapter 5 by studying the health status and potential effects of industrial development on individuals of economically and culturally significant fishes. A resurgence in condition factor of all species after a low in 2011 was observed. Annual variation was also observed in condition factor and the incidence of anomalies or lesions. Morphometric data demonstrated relatively consistent health among fishes in both the Athabasca and Slave rivers. Analysis of condition factor and somatic indices did not demonstrate consistent differences along the river system. Overall, the health of fish as determined by the metrics employed in this study, does not appear to be adversely affected by the current level of development in the Alberta oil sands region. The data presented in this dissertation make invaluable contribution to the much needed monitoring program in the Athabasca and Slave Rivers. Overall, my findings provide baseline data on fish health, concentrations of parent and alkylated PAHs, and products of biotransformation of PAH in five species of large-bodied fishes consumed by humans in communities in the Lower Athabasca and Slave River basin. These results will be useful for establishing the status and trends and spatial distribution of PAHs during monitoring of the lower Athabasca basin and most importantly, as a valuable reference point before any potential permitted discharges of wastewaters from processing of oil sands to the AR.

Naphthenic acids (NA) are a highly complex mixture of aliphatic carboxylic acids that may contain multiple rings and unsaturated double bonds, and are a subset of the naphthenic acid fraction components (NAFC), which can contain heteroatoms, unsaturations, and aromatic structures. Mono-carboxylated NAs can be classically represented by CnH2n+zO2 where z is a negative integer representing the hydrogen deficiency. NAs and NAFCs are components of the acid extractable organics (AEO) frequently associated with increased toxicity and observed at elevated concentrations in oil sands process waters (OSPW). Numerous chromatographic and mass spectrometry techniques have recently emerged to probe the composition and concentrations of these components. This thesis reports the use of a capillary hollow fiber polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) membrane mounted on a probe interface that can be immersed directly into an aqueous sample. A methanol acceptor phase passing through the lumen transports analyte to an electrospray ionization source and a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer. This technique, termed condensed phase membrane introduction mass spectrometry (CP-MIMS), allows for rapid screening of m/z profiles and on-line quantification of NAs in complex samples within minutes. This thesis reports parametric studies of several model carboxylic acids and a standard naphthenic acid mixture (Merichem) involving the effect of sample pH on membrane transport and acceptor phase pH on ionization enhancement. Several quantitative strategies are explored including the use of an internal standard in the acceptor phase to correct for ionization suppression and variations in instrument sensitivity, and the use of selected ion monitoring (SIM) experiments to increase analytical sensitivity and potentially target specific NA isomer classes for quantitation. Analytical performance measures such as the linear dynamic range (1-2300 ppb [NA]T as Merichem), sensitivity (~1 ppb [NA]T as Merichem detection limit), precision (~20 %RSD for replicates of a single OSPW) and accuracy are reported. Quantitative results for various OSPW samples in the ppb to ppm range are reported as equivalents of several surrogates, including 1-pyrenebutyric acid (PyBA), Merichem, and a large-volume extract of northern Alberta OSPWs. The variety of quantitation strategies allows results to be compared with several other published methods. CP-MIMS results for three mid-range northern Alberta OSPWs are compared to analysis by Environment Canada with an average -21% bias. Results for five archived OSPWs spanning a wider concentration are compared to data from AXYS Analytical, with an average -49% bias. Applications of CP-MIMS as an in-situ monitor of removal efficiencies of NAs on adsorbents and real-time mass profile changes are also presented, along with some interpretation of the resulting high-resolution kinetic data to obtain decay constants. Using the targeted SIM method, adsorption decay can be followed in real-time for various isomer classes within the Merichem mixture, and kinetic data extracted to obtain decay constants for each. CP-MIMS is also used to characterize adsorption behavior for two activated biochars, including % removals for various loadings of each when added to stirred Merichem solutions. Preliminary multi-loading experiments are conducted with one biochar, and the ability of CP-MIMS to characterize adsorbent behavior by constructing adsorption isotherm plots is demonstrated. / Graduate

Les polymères hydrosolubles sont utilisés dans diverses industries pour permettre la floculation, soit une séparation solide-liquide de particules présentes en suspension colloïdale. Afin de réduire les impacts environnementaux de l’exploitation des sables bitumineux en Alberta, l’industrie est à la recherche de nouveaux moyens et procédés pour traiter les résidus miniers permettant de séparer les matières solides et de récupérer l’eau. L’objectif des travaux présentés est d’améliorer la floculation, la densification et la déshydratation de ces résidus miniers aqueux par de nouveaux polymères synthétiques. Des homopolymères d’acrylamide de différentes masses molaires ont été synthétisés pour étudier l’influence de la masse molaire sur l’efficacité de floculation. Le taux initial de sédimentation (TIS) est le paramètre qui fut utilisé afin de comparer l’efficacité de floculation des différents polymères. Il a été possible de confirmer l’importance de la masse molaire sur l’efficacité de floculation et de déterminer une masse molaire minimale d’environ 6 MDa pour des polyacrylamides, afin d’obtenir l’efficacité de floculation maximale de suspensions colloïdales principalement composées de kaolin. Afin d’étudier l’effet des charges sur l’efficacité de floculation, des polymères anioniques et cationiques ont été synthétisés. Une série de copolymères d’acrylamide et d’acide acrylique ont été synthétisés comme polymères anioniques et deux séries de copolymères ont été synthétisés comme polymères cationiques, soit des copolymères d’acrylamide et de chlorure de diallyldiméthylammonium et des copolymères de 4-vinyl pyridine et de 1-méthyl-4-vinyl pyridinium. Il a été démontré que les charges anioniques des polymères avaient peu d’influence sur l’efficacité de floculation et que leur comportement en présence de sels était différent de ce que prévoyait la littérature. Il a aussi été démontré que les charges cationiques des polymères n’améliorent pas l’efficacité de floculation. Par la suite, des séries de copolymères amphiphiles, avec des monomères d’acrylamide, de N-alkylacrylamides et d’acrylonitrile, ont été synthétisés, pour étudier l’effet du caractère amphiphile sur la déshydratation des résidus miniers. Le pourcentage de déshydratation nette est le paramètre qui fut utilisé afin de comparer l’efficacité de déshydratation des différents polymères. Il a été possible de développer des copolymères amphiphiles qui améliorent l’efficacité de déshydratation par rapport à des homopolymères d’acrylamide. Il ne fut pas possible de déterminer une tendance entre la balance hydrophile/hydrophobe des copolymères amphiphiles et l’efficacité de déshydratation. / Water soluble polymers are extensively used in industry to achieve solid-liquid separations of particles in colloidal suspensions. In a way to reduce the environmental footprint of the mining exploitation, the oil sands industry is searching for new methods to treat tailings resulting from the extraction processes, by separating the solids and recycling the water. The objective of this work is to improve the flocculation and dewatering efficiency of the water-based tailings through the use of new synthetic polymers. Acrylamide homopolymers of different molecular weights were synthetized to study the effect of molecular weight on flocculation efficiency. Initial settling rate (ISR) was the parameter measured to characterize and compare the flocculation efficiencies. The important effect of polymer molecular weight on the flocculation efficiency was confirmed. The minimum molecular weight of polyacrylamide for optimal flocculation efficiency of kaolin colloidal suspensions has been determined to be around 6.8 MDa. To study the effect of charge on flocculation efficiency, anionic and cationic copolymers were synthetized. Copolymers of acrylamide and acrylic acid have been synthetized to study the effect of anionic charge, whereas copolymers of acrylamide and diallyldimethylammonium chloride and copolymers of 4-vinyl pyridine and 1-methyl-4-vinyl pyridinium have been synthetized to study the effect of cationic charge. Anionic copolymers have shown limited effect on the flocculation efficiency and their behaviour in salt solution was revealed to be different than expected from the literature. Cationic copolymers have shown no improvement in the flocculation efficiency. Amphiphilic copolymers were synthetized with acrylamide, N-alkylacrylamides and acrylonitrile monomers to study the effect of amphiphilicity on the dewatering efficiency of tailings. The net water release parameter was measured to compare the dewatering efficiency of the polymers. Amphiphilic copolymers that improve tailings’ dewatering, compared to polyacrylamide, were developed. Thus far, it was not possible to define a trend between hydrophilic/hydrophobic balance and dewatering efficiency of the copolymers.

Current mining operators in the Athabasca oil sands deposit of Alberta, Canada have made commitments to zero discharge of oil sands process-affected waste materials (OSPM) from the mine site and rehabilitation of mined lands to a pre-mining state. As part of aquatic reclamation efforts, experimental test sites that contain a range of OSPM (solid and liquid components) were constructed to monitor the evolution and viability of aquatic habitats used as disposal sinks for OSPM produced by mining activities. In the present study, stable isotopes of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur were used to gauge some of the potential effects of OSPM site construction methods on aquatic food webs. Carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures of sediment, dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved organic carbon, particulate organic matter, periphytic material, plants, plankton, aquatic invertebrates and fish were used to assess differences related to the naphthenic acid (NA) concentration in OSPM and reference sites. For statistical analyses, sites were grouped into low (0 to 4 mg/L), medium (4 to 15 mg/L) and high (> 15 mg/L) NA concentrations. There were no significant differences in food web area or food web length among the low, medium and high NA concentration sites. In most cases, sample carbon isotope analyses of low, medium and high NA concentration sites were not significantly different, suggesting food web carbon sources did not include significant contributions from OSPM materials at OSPM sites. Significant differences, however, were found in the sample nitrogen isotope signatures between low, medium and high NA concentration sites. Ammonia from OSPM is suggested to be the main contributor to &delta;¹⁵N enrichment. <br /><br /> To determine the potential effects of site construction and OSPM within experimental test sites, carbon and sulphur stable isotopes of water, plankton, aquatic invertebrates and fish were analyzed. With the exception of <em>Chaoborus</em> and <em>Haliplus</em>, all carbon isotope signatures were not significantly different in constructed and reference sites. Also with the exception of <em>Haliplus</em>, sulphur isotope values for aquatic organisms from constructed and reference sites were significantly different. Aquatic organisms and water samples from constructed sites built in, or close, to the boundary of Kcw clays typically had &delta;³⁴S < 0 ?. Coinciding with depleted &delta;³⁴S signatures found in these aquatic systems were elevated sulphate concentrations. The waters at experimental test sites are in direct contact with the soil materials that facilitate the accumulation of sulphates as a result of the oxidation of substrate sulphide minerals. In general the results of the study suggest that aquatic food web structure and function do not change with the introduction of OSPM. Shifts in isotopic signatures suggestive of changes in food web structure, however, do occur when site construction exposes Kcw clays in the substrate.

Current mining operators in the Athabasca oil sands deposit of Alberta, Canada have made commitments to zero discharge of oil sands process-affected waste materials (OSPM) from the mine site and rehabilitation of mined lands to a pre-mining state. As part of aquatic reclamation efforts, experimental test sites that contain a range of OSPM (solid and liquid components) were constructed to monitor the evolution and viability of aquatic habitats used as disposal sinks for OSPM produced by mining activities. In the present study, stable isotopes of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur were used to gauge some of the potential effects of OSPM site construction methods on aquatic food webs. Carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures of sediment, dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved organic carbon, particulate organic matter, periphytic material, plants, plankton, aquatic invertebrates and fish were used to assess differences related to the naphthenic acid (NA) concentration in OSPM and reference sites. For statistical analyses, sites were grouped into low (0 to 4 mg/L), medium (4 to 15 mg/L) and high (> 15 mg/L) NA concentrations. There were no significant differences in food web area or food web length among the low, medium and high NA concentration sites. In most cases, sample carbon isotope analyses of low, medium and high NA concentration sites were not significantly different, suggesting food web carbon sources did not include significant contributions from OSPM materials at OSPM sites. Significant differences, however, were found in the sample nitrogen isotope signatures between low, medium and high NA concentration sites. Ammonia from OSPM is suggested to be the main contributor to &delta;¹⁵N enrichment. <br /><br /> To determine the potential effects of site construction and OSPM within experimental test sites, carbon and sulphur stable isotopes of water, plankton, aquatic invertebrates and fish were analyzed. With the exception of <em>Chaoborus</em> and <em>Haliplus</em>, all carbon isotope signatures were not significantly different in constructed and reference sites. Also with the exception of <em>Haliplus</em>, sulphur isotope values for aquatic organisms from constructed and reference sites were significantly different. Aquatic organisms and water samples from constructed sites built in, or close, to the boundary of Kcw clays typically had &delta;³⁴S < 0 ?. Coinciding with depleted &delta;³⁴S signatures found in these aquatic systems were elevated sulphate concentrations. The waters at experimental test sites are in direct contact with the soil materials that facilitate the accumulation of sulphates as a result of the oxidation of substrate sulphide minerals. In general the results of the study suggest that aquatic food web structure and function do not change with the introduction of OSPM. Shifts in isotopic signatures suggestive of changes in food web structure, however, do occur when site construction exposes Kcw clays in the substrate.

This thesis consists of three essays on risk management in crude oil markets. In the first essay, the valuation of an oil sands project is studied using real options approach. Oil sands production consumes substantial amount of natural gas during extracting and upgrading. Natural gas prices are known to be stochastic and highly volatile which introduces a risk factor that needs to be taken into account. The essay studies the impact of this risk factor on the value of an oil sands project and its optimal operation. The essay takes into account the co-movement between crude oil and natural gas markets and, accordingly, proposes two models: one incorporates a long-run link between the two markets while the other has no such link. The valuation problem is solved using the Least Square Monte Carlo (LSMC) method proposed by Longsta ff and Schwartz (2001) for valuing American options. The valuation results show that incorporating a long-run relationship between the two markets is a very crucial decision in the value of the project and in its optimal operation. The essay shows that ignoring this long-run relationship makes the optimal policy sensitive to the dynamics of natural gas prices. On the other hand, incorporating this long-run relationship makes the dynamics of natural gas price process have a very low impact on valuation and the optimal operating policy. In the second essay, the relationship between the slope of the futures term structure, or the forward curve, and volatility in the crude oil market is investigated using a measure of the slope based on principal component analysis (PCA). The essay begins by reviewing the main theories of the relation between spot and futures prices and considering the implication of each theory on the relation between the slope of the forward curve and volatility. The diagonal VECH model of Bollerslev et al. (1988) was used to analyse the relationship between of the forward curve slope and the variances of the spot and futures prices and the covariance between them. The results show that there is a significant quadratic relationship and that exploiting this relation improves the hedging performance using futures contracts. The third essay attempts to model the spot price process of crude oil using the notion of convenience yield in a regime switching framework. Unlike the existing studies, which assume the convenience yield to have either a constant value or to have a stochastic behaviour with mean reversion to one equilibrium level, the model of this essay extends the Brennan and Schwartz (1985) model to allows for regime switching in the convenience yield along with the other parameters. In the essay, a closed form solution for the futures price is derived. The parameters are estimated using an extension to the Kalman filter proposed by Kim (1994). The regime switching one-factor model of this study does a reasonable job and the transitional probabilities play an important role in shaping the futures term structure implied by the model.

In Alberta, Canada, amongst its mixture of sand, clay, water and other minerals, the tar sand’s heavy and viscous component bitumen, a thick, sticky form of crude oil is extracted through two methods; open-pit mining for shallower deposits (&lt;75 m), and in situ for deeper deposits (&gt;75 m). This degree project consists of a comparison between these two extraction methods impact on air, nature and water, which all have been evaluated by reviewing and analyzing literature. Studies showed that in situ methods cause a higher impact on air than open-pit mining, through higher emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide (SO2), and will surpass the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions caused by the open-pit mines when the shallower, more accessible tar sands dwindle. Open-pit mining causes a higher impact on water due to its large tailing ponds that causes leakage of processing water and fine tailings, polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH: s) and these 13 following elements considered priority pollutants (PPE) by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); antimony (Sb), arsenic (As), beryllium (Be), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), silver (Ag), thallium (Tl) and zinc (Zn). However studies remain unclear whether or not in situ methods are worse due to underground tailing ponds. Finally, when it comes to nature, open-pit mining causes a more direct environmental impact through deforestation, drainage of peat and wetland, and blasting of rock. In situ methods however, seem to cause more of a long term environmental impact through fragmentation. Dividing the landscape into smaller units through roads, wells, pipelines and seismic lines, leads to domestic biodiversity and homogenization of flora and fauna as unfavorable conditions is created for the nature’s wildlife. In conclusion, in situ methods causes a bigger impact on air than open-pit mining, while open-pit mining causes a bigger impact on water. Due to lack of time and resources, more research about the direct impact on nature is needed to fully evaluate which of the two extraction methods causes the least environmental impact.

The fuel for dynamic change in the United State’s energy relationship with Canada lies in immense deposits of tar sands beneath the boreal forests of Alberta province. Unconventional production of oil from this resource has accelerated in recent years and remains poised for continued expansion, facilitated, in part, by plans to import tar sands crude through new pipelines to refineries in the United States. However, the development of this resource carries uniquely heavy environmental burdens, and U.S. environmental groups have challenged the process by which the United States authorizes cross-border oil pipelines. This thesis analyzes the presidential permitting process and concludes that executive or legislative action is necessary to eliminate legal uncertainties and improve the transparency and public acceptability of determinations that new cross-border pipelines are warranted. / text

Conventional fossil fuels are widely used, however there are growing concerns about the security of their supply, volatility in their prices and the environmental impacts of their extraction and use. The objective of this research is to investigate the potential for replacing conventional fuels in various applications, focusing on the Alberta oil sands industry. Such investigations require systems-level approaches able to handle multiple criteria, uncertainty, and the views of multiple stakeholders. To address this need, the following are developed: life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing models of polygeneration systems; a life cycle-based framework for multi-sectoral resource use decisions; and a method combining LCA and real options analyses to yield environmental and financial insights into projects. These tools are applied to options for utilizing oil sands outputs, both the petroleum resource (bitumen) and by-products of its processing (e.g., asphaltenes, coke), within the oil sands industry and across other sectors. For oil sands on-site use, multiple fuels are assessed for the polygeneration of electricity, steam and hydrogen, in terms of life cycle environmental and financial impacts; asphaltenes gasification with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is the most promising option, able to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 25% of those of current natural gas-based systems. Coke management options are assessed with the life cycle-based framework; the most promising options are identified as: Electricity generation in China through integrated gasification combined cycle; and, hydrogen production in Alberta, either for sale or use by the oil sands industry. Without CCS, these options have amortized project values ranging from $21 to $160/t coke. The application of the combined LCA and real options analyses method finds that uncertainty in natural gas and potential carbon prices over time significantly impacts decisions on coke management; the formulated decision tree identifies increases of 29% and 11% in the financial and GHG emissions performance, respectively, of the overall coke management project compared to pursuing the decision identified by the life cycle-based framework. While promising options for replacing conventional fossil fuels are identified through systems-level analyses, there are trade-offs to be made among the financial, risk and environmental criteria.