Thesis (M.P.H.)--University of Michigan, 1945.

Thesis (M.P.H.)--University of Michigan, 1945.

Cette thèse porte sur l’opinion publique et la démocratie. Elle s’intéresse particulièrement aux Guatémaltèques et à leur faible propension à appuyer la démocratie et certains des principes associés à celle-ci. Entre des explications qui associent ce comportement à un artéfact et à une culture autoritaire, des éléments contextuels et d’importantes nuances prévalent. Ce travail montre qu’il est nécessaire de traiter l’appui à la démocratie comme un objet multiface et malléable. En puisant dans les théories des perspectives et des bifurcations, un instrument d’analyse est élaboré sous le libellé de « temps court de l’appui à la démocratie ». Ce dernier nous permet de comprendre pourquoi, en période de crise politique, les points de vue sur la démocratie sont susceptibles d’évoluer. Sensibles aux circonstances extraordinaires, les opinions peuvent aussi, dans des périodes plus calmes, connaître une certaine stabilité. Les théories de l’ambivalence permettent d’élaborer un deuxième instrument, le « temps long de l’appui à la démocratie », qui aide à expliquer pourquoi les sondés offrent souvent des réponses « contradictoires » en matière de droits et de libertés. Aussi ambivalents que les autres Centraméricains, les Guatémaltèques se démarquent cependant par une forte tendance à esquiver les questions de sondage, à s’opposer aux droits des gens qui critiquent le gouvernement et à évaluer négativement le travail des institutions. Ces caractéristiques mettent en lumière des tensions entre les demandes et l’évaluation de l’offre en démocratie que font les citoyens. Cette thèse débute en étudiant les dimensions de la culture politique guatémaltèque et en proposant une typologie des indicateurs employés dans les grandes enquêtes internationales. / This thesis deals with public opinion and democracy. It mainly focuses on Guatemalans and on their weak propensity to support democracy and some of its dimensions. Between explanations that tie this behaviour to an artifact and to a culture of authoritarianism, contextual factors and important nuances can be found. We thus argue that it is advisable to deal with support for democracy as a multifaceted and malleable object. Drawing from perspectives and bifurcation theories, we develop an analytical instrument that we refer to as the "short-run of support for democracy". The latter allows us to understand why and how, in times of crisis, citizens’ viewpoints on democracy can easily become volatile. The fact that opinions are sensitive to extraordinary circumstances does not prevent them, under usual circumstances, from being relatively stable. Building on theories on ambivalence, we elaborate another instrument, the "long-run of support for democracy", which allows us to explain why survey respondents often give "contradictory" answers to questions dealing with rights and freedoms. While as ambivalent as other Central Americans, Guatemalans stand apart for their likelihood to avoid certain survey questions, to prefer limiting the rights of people who criticize the government, and to be particularly distrustful of state institutions. As background to those opinions and other paradoxical attitudes, we highlight existing tensions between citizens’ demands and their evaluation of the offer in democracy. This thesis first examines the various dimensions of the Guatemalan political culture and proposes a typology of indicators used in international barometer surveys.

To date, most public opinion surveys on globalization have placed little emphasis on studying globalization as a multidimensional phenomenon. The dominant approach used in most public opinion surveys on globalization is to focus primarily on its economic aspects, particularly as change in international trade flows. However, many academics recognize that globalization has political and cultural dimensions, which raises the question: can citizen attitudes toward globalization be explained merely by studying its economic dimension? <p>This study proposes that including definitions relating to globalizations cultural and political aspects produces richer opinion poll data that, along with economic definitions, allows for more valid interpretation of public attitudes towards globalization. This proposition was tested in a national, SSHRC-funded public opinion survey conducted in January of 2007 among 1,505 Canadians. This study probes both the different dimensions of globalization and peoples different conceptualizations of globalization. Drawing upon recent work by Kenichi Ohmae, Philip Cerny and others, the respondent pool was divided in half and then competing paired definitions of cultural and political globalization were tested. The results suggest that citizens possess significantly different attitudes toward the political, cultural and economic aspects of globalization, and so operationalizing the concept in terms of its economic effects alone is insufficient for most survey and public policy purposes.

Measuring public opinion on abortion is an ongoing concern for political scientists, mainly because the public does not always exhibit fixed attitudes on such topics. Most citizens express a centrist viewpoint between the pro choice and pro life extremes. These include a small group whose answers to abortion questions are so inconsistent that they give public officials an inaccurate measure of public opinion on this important issue. Inconsistent responses may result from context effects, such as the order in which the questions are asked or the way they are asked. Usually, researchers ask a battery of questions in which respondents say whether they approve of abortion generally and under a variety of circumstances, citing the reasons for which a woman might seek an abortion. This project includes an independent national survey using questions adopted from the General Social Survey. The sample is divided into four experimental groups with different question orders. Based on these findings, the recommended question order would be the one with the general question last and the remaining specific questions in a somewhat random pattern alternating between the so-called “hard” and “easy” individual abortion situations. One of the more surprising findings is that people didn’t recognize themselves as subtracting the specific situations from the general question when it was asked first; hardly any said that was what they were doing when they gave inconsistent answers. Otherwise, about an equal number of respondents admitted answering the questions off the top of their heads as those who showed ambivalence by claiming they were deeply committed to their inconsistent responses. The study found most people who inconsistent on abortion are moderates leaning towards pro choice. Also, politically conservative regular church-goers can be just as inconsistent on abortion as the non-religious, non-political, low-educated non-church goers, especially if they are basically pro choice. Without a full understanding of who is generating inconsistent answers on abortion, some researchers may be tempted to eliminate these respondents from their sample. This research should allow them to understand these respondents better and develop better question wording and question orders to reduce their numbers.

To date, most public opinion surveys on globalization have placed little emphasis on studying globalization as a multidimensional phenomenon. The dominant approach used in most public opinion surveys on globalization is to focus primarily on its economic aspects, particularly as change in international trade flows. However, many academics recognize that globalization has political and cultural dimensions, which raises the question: can citizen attitudes toward globalization be explained merely by studying its economic dimension? <p>This study proposes that including definitions relating to globalizations cultural and political aspects produces richer opinion poll data that, along with economic definitions, allows for more valid interpretation of public attitudes towards globalization. This proposition was tested in a national, SSHRC-funded public opinion survey conducted in January of 2007 among 1,505 Canadians. This study probes both the different dimensions of globalization and peoples different conceptualizations of globalization. Drawing upon recent work by Kenichi Ohmae, Philip Cerny and others, the respondent pool was divided in half and then competing paired definitions of cultural and political globalization were tested. The results suggest that citizens possess significantly different attitudes toward the political, cultural and economic aspects of globalization, and so operationalizing the concept in terms of its economic effects alone is insufficient for most survey and public policy purposes.

As the realm of social life where public opinion forms, the public sphere has been the focus of much theoretical debate and empirical operationalization in political sociology. However, by conceptualizing the public sphere as a nationally circumscribed and normatively defined space that excludes governance institutions, much existing research provides a limited set of tools to define and assess the structure of a supranational public sphere. A deeply integrated supranational polity, the European Union (EU) provides a revealing terrain for tracing the structure of a public sphere emerging between national politics and supranational institutions. In this dissertation, I delineate the contours of the supranational public sphere in the EU by exploring the subjective meanings, national political influences, and institutional interpretation of public opinion about political integration in the EU. I answer the following questions: (1) How salient is EU political integration among Europeans, and what does this concept mean to them? (2) How does Europeans' awareness about EU political integration vary across policies, time and social strata? (3) How is public opinion on EU political integration shaped by national political discourse, as reflected in the positions of national parties? (4) How do officials at the European Commission (EC) measure and interpret public opinion data, and to what extent are these data used to construct an image of the European public and an EU public sphere? Based on quantitative survey data and on interviews with French and Romanian citizens, I show that political integration in the EU remains a distant and abstract concept to which citizens attribute personalized or nationalized meanings. Longitudinal panel models show that public opinion on EU policy often relies on cues from national party discourse. Moreover, interviews with EC staff revealed that, because of logistical and institutional constraints that stifle civil servants' analytical aspirations, public opinion data collected by the EC fail to define a European public and to construct a supranational communicative space for this public. The EU public sphere is a product of supranational polity, but its public is absent and its structure remains nationally embedded. / Sociology

This thesis contains three essays covering different topics in the field of statistics<p>and econometrics of survey data. Chapters one and two analyse two aspects<p>of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF hereafter) dataset. This survey<p>provides a large information on macroeconomic expectations done by the professional<p>forecasters and offers an opportunity to exploit a rich information set.<p>But it poses a challenge on how to extract the relevant information in a proper<p>way. The last chapter addresses the issue of analyzing the opinions on the euro<p>reported in the Flash Eurobaromenter dataset.<p>The first chapter Measuring Uncertainty and Disagreement in the European<p>Survey of Professional Forecasters proposes a density forecast methodology based<p>on the piecewise linear approximation of the individual’s forecasting histograms,<p>to measure uncertainty and disagreement of the professional forecasters. Since<p>1960 with the introduction of the SPF in the US, it has been clear that they were a<p>useful source of information to address the issue on how to measure disagreement<p>and uncertainty, without relying on macroeconomic or time series models. Direct<p>measures of uncertainty are seldom available, whereas many surveys report point<p>forecasts from a number of individual respondents. There has been a long tradition<p>of using measures of the dispersion of individual respondents’ point forecasts<p>(disagreement or consensus) as proxies for uncertainty. Unlike other surveys, the<p>SPF represents an exception. It directly asks for the point forecast, and for the<p>probability distribution, in the form of histogram, associated with the macro variables<p>of interest. An important issue that should be considered concerns how to<p>approximate individual probability densities and get accurate individual results<p>for disagreement and uncertainty before computing the aggregate measures. In<p>contrast to Zarnowitz and Lambros (1987), and Giordani and Soderlind (2003) we<p>overcome the problem associated with distributional assumptions of probability<p>density forecasts by using a non parametric approach that, instead of assuming<p>a functional form for the individual probability law, approximates the histogram<p>by a piecewise linear function. In addition, and unlike earlier works that focus on<p>US data, we employ European data, considering gross domestic product (GDP),<p>inflation and unemployment.<p>The second chapter Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts is based on<p>a joint work with Christine De Mol and Domenico Giannone. It proposes an<p>approach to optimally combine survey forecasts, exploiting the whole covariance<p>structure among forecasters. There is a vast literature on forecast combination<p>methods, advocating their usefulness both from the theoretical and empirical<p>points of view (see e.g. the recent review by Timmermann (2006)). Surprisingly,<p>it appears that simple methods tend to outperform more sophisticated ones, as<p>shown for example by Genre et al. (2010) on the combination of the forecasts in<p>the SPF conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB). The main conclusion of<p>several studies is that the simple equal-weighted average constitutes a benchmark<p>that is hard to improve upon. In contrast to a great part of the literature which<p>does not exploit the correlation among forecasters, we take into account the full<p>covariance structure and we determine the optimal weights for the combination<p>of point forecasts as the minimizers of the mean squared forecast error (MSFE),<p>under the constraint that these weights are nonnegative and sum to one. We<p>compare our combination scheme with other methodologies in terms of forecasting<p>performance. Results show that the proposed optimal combination scheme is an<p>appropriate methodology to combine survey forecasts.<p>The literature on point forecast combination has been widely developed, however<p>there are fewer studies analyzing the issue for combination density forecast.<p>We extend our work considering the density forecasts combination. Moving from<p>the main results presented in Hall and Mitchell (2007), we propose an iterative<p>algorithm for computing the density weights which maximize the average logarithmic<p>score over the sample period. The empirical application is made for the<p>European GDP and inflation forecasts. Results suggest that optimal weights,<p>obtained via an iterative algorithm outperform the equal-weighted used by the<p>ECB density combinations.<p>The third chapter entitled Opinion surveys on the euro: a multilevel multinomial<p>logistic analysis outlines the multilevel aspects related to public attitudes<p>toward the euro. This work was motivated by the on-going debate whether the<p>perception of the euro among European citizenships after ten years from its introduction<p>was positive or negative. The aim of this work is, therefore, to disentangle<p>the issue of public attitudes considering either individual socio-demographic characteristics<p>and macroeconomic features of each country, counting each of them<p>as two separate levels in a single analysis. Considering a hierarchical structure<p>represents an advantage as it models within-country as well as between-country<p>relations using a single analysis. The multilevel analysis allows the consideration<p>of the existence of dependence between individuals within countries induced by<p>unobserved heterogeneity between countries, i.e. we include in the estimation<p>specific country characteristics not directly observable. In this chapter we empirically<p>investigate which individual characteristics and country specificities are<p>most important and affect the perception of the euro. The attitudes toward the<p>euro vary across individuals and countries, and are driven by personal considerations<p>based on the benefits and costs of using the single currency. Individual<p>features, such as a high level of education or living in a metropolitan area, have<p>a positive impact on the perception of the euro. Moreover, the country-specific<p>economic condition can influence individuals attitudes. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The thesis is focused on values of the Czech society in 1990 - 2011, especially on hedonism value. It uses the method of a secondary analysis of quantitative data. We deal with the presumption that the social transformation which started in 1989, influenced value area as well. Our aim is to answer following questions: 1) Has an emphasis of hedonism in the Czech society changed during the social transformation? If yes, in what way? Can we observe continual rising of this value? 2) What is the influence of socio-demographic variables on hedonism? Is diferentiating influence of these variables on hedonism changing in time? An empirical part of this thesis is anticipated by the theoretical one, which is focused on research of values by social sciences and sociology, deals with questions about value stability and dynamism, presents a model of value dynamism by D. Slejška and draws up some consideration about influence of life circumstances - especially those which are related to the transformation of totalitarian society to freedom society - on the field of values. Keywords values - dynamism of values - hedonism - social transformation - public opinion surveys - secondary analysis of data

The objective of this essay is to investigate whether the repeated failures to democratize in the Middle East depends on the United States' unsuccessful foreign policy or if it is caused by an absence of democratic culture, focusing primarily on Afghanistan whilst also including Iraq and Libya based on the criteria of having been the subject of US military incursion(s). The research made for this paper is based upon the case study method combined with a quantitative dataset from the Arab Barometer in order to measure democratic culture. In this study it is found that US foreign policy has played a major role in the current state of the aforementioned countries with democratic culture being an important, albeit not essential aspect.