During the boreal cool season (December – February) extreme temperature regimes (ETRs), including cold air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs), affect regional economies and human safety via their significant impacts on energy consumption, local agriculture and human health. This work aims to improve our understanding of the trends and variability in ETRs, their physical connections to low frequency modes, and the dynamical mechanisms leading to ETR onset. Earlier studies on ETR trends and variability do not consider the last decade. Further, little is known about the physical and dynamical nature of ETR onset. These unknowns motivate this dissertation and are particularly important for WWs, which have rarely been studied. This study begins with an updated analysis of the long-term trends and interannual variability in ETRs. Even with the inclusion of the last decade, no significant trends in either WW or CAO occurrence are identified over the continental United States between 1949-2011. The accompanying correlation analysis reveals that on interannual time scales, ETRs in specific regions of the U.S. tend to be modulated by certain low frequency modes. This analysis highlights an important regional asymmetry in the low frequency mode modulation of ETRs, and also indicates that the influence of ENSO upon ATRs is mainly limited to a modest modulation of WWs over the southeast US. Further, a multiple linear regression analysis reveals that the regional collective influence of low-frequency modes accounts for as much as 50% of interannual ETR variability. A synoptic-dynamic characterization of ETR onset over the southeast US is then performed using composite time-evolution analyses of events occurring between 1949-2011 to provide a qualitative indication of the role of low frequency modes. During CAO (WW) onset, negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies are observed in the upper troposphere over the Southeast with oppositely-signed anomalies in the lower troposphere over the central US. In most cases, there is a surface east-west height anomaly dipole, with anomalous northerly (CAO) or southerly (WW) flow into the Southeast leading to cold or warm surface air temperature anomalies, respectively. Companion potential vorticity anomaly analyses reveal prominent features in the mid- to upper-troposphere consistent with the geopotential height anomaly patterns. The composite analyses reveal significant roles for both synoptic and large-scale disturbances in ETR development. Synoptic-scale disturbances serve as dynamic triggers for ETR events, while low-frequency modes can provide a favorable environment for ETR onset. A suite of diagnostic analyses is conducted next and aims to identify the primary thermodynamic processes and dynamical mechanisms responsible for ETR development over the Southeast US. Heat budget analyses implicate linear temperature advection as the primary contributor to ETR development, while nonlinear advection plays a smaller role. Both the linear and the nonlinear terms contribute positively to the temperature tendencies of interest, while the adiabatic and diabatic terms offset some of the advection contributions. Piecewise PV inversion analyses are then conducted to assess which dynamical features directly contribute to the local temperature changes that occur in association with ETRs. A novel result is the discovery of the potential pathway through which the low frequency mode modulation of ETRs takes place. An upper-tropospheric PV feature first induces near-surface temperature advection, which then creates a near-surface temperature anomaly and a corresponding circulation that further enhances the initial temperature advection and ultimately leads to the ETR event.

Foodborne illnesses continue to have a negative impact on the nation's health, accounting annually for an estimated 76 million illnesses, 325,000 hospitalizations, and 5,000 deaths in the United States. Syndromic surveillance systems that analyze pre-diagnostic data, such as pharmaceutical sales data are being used to monitor diarrheal disease. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of a poison control center (PCC) data collection and triage system for early detection of increases in foodborne illnesses.Data on calls to the Arizona Poison and Drug Information Center (APDIC) reporting suspected foodborne illnesses, and Pima County Health Department (PCHD) enteric illness reports were obtained for July 1, 2002 - June 30, 2007. Prediction algorithms were constructed using the first two and a half years, and validated in the remaining two and a half years. Multiple outcomes were assessed using unadjusted and adjusted raw counts, five and seven day moving averages, and exponentially weighted moving averages. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate model performance. Increases in PCHD laboratory reports of enteric illnesses were used as a proxy measure for foodborne disease outbreaks.Over the five year study period there were 1,094 APDIC calls reporting suspected foodborne illnesses, and 2,433 PCHD enteric illness cases. Seventy-five percent of cases were reported to PCHD within 23 days of symptom onset. In contrast, 62% of callers contacted APDIC within 24 hours of symptom onset. Forty percent of PCHD cases were missing symptom onset dates, which necessitated constructing and validating predictive algorithms using only those PCHD cases with known symptom onset dates.None of the prediction models performed at sensitivity levels considered acceptable by public health department standards. However, it is possible that a temporal relationship actually exists, but data quality (lack of outbreak dates, and missing symptom onset dates) may have prevented its detection. The study suggests that current surveillance by PCCs is insufficient as a univariate model for syndromic surveillance of diarrheal illness because of low caller volume reporting suspected foodborne illnesses; this can be improved. Methods were discussed to utilize PCCs for active surveillance of foodborne illnesses that are of public health significance.

Coloradia pandora (Blake) is a phytophagous insect that defoliates Pinus ponderosa (Dougl. ex Laws.) in south-central Oregon. Little is known about the extent of damage this insect inflicts upon its host trees during an outbreak. In this paper, we present stem analyses on four dominant Pinus ponderosa trees that enable us to determine the amount of volume lost during each Coloradia pandora outbreak on this site for the past 450 years. We found that on average an outbreak inhibits radial growth so that an individual tree produces 0.057 m³ less wood volume than the potential growth for the duration of an individual outbreak. A total of 0.549 m³ of growth per tree was inhibited by 10 outbreaks during the lifetime of the trees, which, in this stand, equates to 9.912 m³/ha (1,700 board feet/acre) of wood suppressed over the last 450 years throughout the stand. Our results do not support previous findings of a lag in suppression onset between the canopy of the tree versus the base. Crossdating of stem analysis samples is paramount to definitively examine the potential for a lagged response throughout the

The global disease scape is constantly shifting, influenced by demographic transitions, altering the balance of the burden of infectious and non‐communicable diseases. The epidemiological transitions can be divided into three stages: the first, an increase in infectious disease burden as populations settled, then grew into towns and cities providing conditions for infectious agents to maintain spread; the second transition follows industrialisation, changes in lifestyle, diet and improved sanitation whereby infectious diseases are reduced and non‐communicable disease (NCD) prevalence increases; the third transition describes the re‐emergence of infectious diseases as the AIDS epidemic and other emerging and re‐emerging disease outbreaks lead to an increasing burden of infectious diseases, particularly in developing countries. Analysis of the disease‐scape has been carried out using WHO Global Burden of Disease data and correlation to demographic factors calculated using World Bank Development Indicators. The balance of chronic NCDs and infectious diseases can be represented numerically as the unit rate of infectious to non‐communicable diseases. The rate, which indicates at which end the continuum lies can then be correlated to these demographic development indicators to assess the factors which are influential to the continuum. As the balance of infectious and non‐communicable diseases around the world alters, the focus of the advocacy at the global health level has been examined to assess if the trends follow that of the shifting continuum. This has been carried out through an assessment of the WHO World Health Assembly (WHA) resolutions adopted annually between 1948 and 2013 on the subject of infectious and/or non-communicable diseases. The principle of International health stemmed from the need to contain the international spread of communicable diseases, so it is not surprising that in the first decade of the WHO, 88% of the resolutions adopted for infectious and non‐communicable disease were adopted for infectious diseases. In the latest ten years of the WHO, 72% of the Assembly resolutions for infectious and non‐communicable diseases were focused on infectious diseases; this indicates that while there has been a shift in the balance, the adopted resolutions still focus heavily on infectious diseases. An example of how advocacy can elevate diseases to a higher position on the global health agenda is that of the Neglected Tropical Diseases. Following the Millennium Development Goals, this group of seventeen diseases has been highlighted as being “neglected” in terms of funding, research and political will. A review of the campaign to highlight this shows how global health advocacy can elevate diseases to a prominent position on the global health agenda. With this in mind, the advocacy for a sub‐group of Neglected Zoonotic Diseases has been examined at the WHA level. The results highlight the sporadic nature of support to control these diseases, and that activism for control of some of the major zoonotic diseases remains lacking. Rabies is explored as an example of a disease for which there are recommendations and support at the global level for the control and elimination of the disease, but for which barriers to control exist locally in endemic countries. The advocacy for diseases at the global health level has the possibility to impact the priorities of health care within individual nations. However the advocacy at this level may take time to reflect the changes within the disease‐scape. The impact of such advocacy is also limited by local political will, availability of resources and local cultural implications. Therefore there is a need to ensure that efforts to control diseases are tailored to specific populations and that resources are made available to support the advocacy.

Magister Artium (Development Studies) - MA(DVS) / Climate change has induced a number of environmental issues that have affected people's lives beyond the scope of ecology; these effects have touched on the social, cultural and economic dimensions of life as well. In light of this, migration has increasingly been used as a climate adaptation strategy particularly in rural areas. This has not only changed migration patterns, it has also reconstructed the gender dynamics within the migration discourse through the ‘feminization of migration.’ Hence it has become important to analyse, understand and unpack the various ways in which women experience climate change and climate-induced migration, and how this has affected their lives. Additionally, women's position as active agents in climate migration and knowledge production has increasingly been acknowledged in climate and migration discourse This study focused on the effects of climate change on female migration patterns in Goromonzi District, Zimbabwe; and took place in Hiya village. The main research question aimed to find out if using migration as an adaptation strategy to climate change had positively changed the lives of women in rural Zimbabwe? With a focus on Hiya village in Goromonzi, Zimbabwe the research question was answered through identifying migration push factors for women, climate resistant livelihoods and the benefits of migration in light of climate induced environmental disasters. A mixed methods research approach was used however the research is largely qualitative.

Public health data show the tremendous economic and societal impact of pandemic influenza in the past. Currently, the welfare of society is threatened by the lack of planning to ensure an adequate response to a pandemic. This preparation is difficult because the characteristics of the virus that would cause the pandemic are unknown, but primarily because the response requires tools to support decision-making based on scientific methods. The response to the next pandemic influenza will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs, which will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence of antiviral resistant strains. Nevertheless, the literature has insufficient exhaustive models to simulate the spread and mitigation of pandemic influenza, including infection by an antiviral resistant strain. We are building a large-scale simulation optimization framework for development of dynamic antiviral strategies including treatment of symptomatic cases and chemoprophylaxis of pre- and post-exposure cases. The model considers an oseltamivir-sensitive strain and a resistant strain with low/high fitness cost, induced by the use of the several antiviral measures. The mitigation strategies incorporate age/immunitybased risk groups for treatment and pre-/post-exposure chemoprophylaxis, and duration of pre-exposure chemoprophylaxis. The model is tested on a hypothetical region in Florida, U.S., involving more than one million people. The analysis is conducted under different virus transmissibility and severity scenarios, varying intensity of non-pharmaceutical interventions, measuring the levels of antiviral stockpile availability. The model is intended to support pandemic preparedness and response policy making.

The main objectives of this investigation were to determine the impact of climate on mountain birch (Betula pubecens ssp. czerepanovii (Orlova)) growth and to develop a regional chronology of autumnal moth outbreaks. To accomplish the objective, cores of mountain birch were taken from 21 sites in Norrbotten, Sweden. Tree-ring chronologies were developed for each site. Climatic influences were determined by correlating ring widths to climatic variables (average monthly temperature, average monthly precipitation and NAO). Outbreaks were recovered from the ring width indices using the non-host method with Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris (L.)) as the non-host. This method removes the climatic influence on growth to enhance other factors. Patterns of synchrony and regional outbreaks were detected using regression and cluster analysis techniques. The primary climatic influences on the tree ring growth of mountain birch are June and July temperatures; precipitation during October is of secondary importance. Climate explained 46% of yearly tree ring width variation. Outbreaks of the autumnal moth occur at varying time intervals depending on the scale of study. Intervals between outbreaks on the tree level are twice as long as at the plot level. On the regional scale plots within the same valley had more similar outbreak intervals and magnitudes of outbreaks. Elevation is a driver in determining the length of outbreaks and length between outbreaks. The percent monocormicity of a plot is also a determining factor of the length between outbreaks. This study is the first regional scale study on climate and outbreaks of the autumnal moth on mountain birch. The results complement research being conducted on autumnal moth larval densities and will help in modeling and assessing the effects of outbreaks with increasing climatic change.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Alabama at Birmingham, 2007. / Title from PDF title page (viewed on Feb. 10, 2010). Includes bibliographical references.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Karolinska institutet, 2007. / Härtill 7 uppsatser.

Thesis (M.P.H.)--University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, School of Public Health, 2008. / Source: Masters Abstracts International, Volume: 47-01, page: . Adviser: John Herbold. Includes bibliographical references.