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<p> This study analyses the growth prospects of Pakistan over the period 1978 to 1990. The framework used for the analysis is a macroeconometric model of the economy which is constructed and estimated based on data for the period 1956 to 1978. The predictive ability of the model is evaluated in terms of its ability to forecast values of the endogenous variables in an historic simulation context. The model is then used initially to forecast values of major endogenous variables over the period 1978 to 1990, based on a-benchmark set of assumptions about growth in the exogenous variables. The results of the benchmark forecast are compared with results of six other forecasts in which the assumptions about the future course of key domestic and international factors are varied.</p> <p> The macroeconometric model consists of a system of nonlinear dynamic simultaneous equations. An input-output block composed of ten production sectors is incorporated. The final demand side is disaggregated into private and public expenditures, including exports and imports by economic categories. The revenue structure and role of the government in the development of the economy are treated as endogenously determined. The influence of bank credit on capital formation and the effect of government deficits on the money supply are explicitly incorporated.</p> <p> The results of the initial benchmark forecast with the model are compared with targets set by the Pakistan Planning Commission in the context of the Fifth Five-Year Plan (1978-83). It is found that the plan was consistent but was not feasible with regard to the amount of non-inflationary resources required to carry it out. For these reasons, the plan was aborted in 1981. </p> <p> In the other experiments it is found that a higher international growth rate, though raising the growth path of the Pakistan economy, does not translate into an equivalent increase in growth in the domestic economy. The economy's growth path is found to be very sensitive to the course of agricultural development. A harvest failure in one year would permanently lower the growth path for subsequent years. The economy is found to be flexible enough to withstand a surge in imports in one year without its long-run growth path being affected. Finally, on the basis of the last experiment, a feasible course of action for government policy is suggested. This would require development expenditures to increase by half the amount suggested in the plan. Under this policy, gross domestic product and related aggregates would have annual real growth of 4.1 percent in the long-run accompanied by yearly increases in employment of 3.3 percent. Government and balance of payments deficits would be cut to manageable size, resulting in reduced inflationary tendencies in the economy.</p> / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Yes / The paper considers various theoretical perspectives that underscore the relevance of managing difference in a multinational state and the various strategies used by state in regulating difference in general and to Pakistan specifically. It then briefly illustrates the central features of federalism at different points in Pakistan¿s history and then considers the actually practise of managing difference at various historical junctures. A critical analysis of the various alterative approaches is then considered and an evaluation of the pro and cons of each suggestion is made allowing for reflections on possible policy development.

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Yes / Title in attached file differs from final published title.

This dissertation examines women's lives in a rapidly urbanizing rural community in Southern Pakistan to understand their responses to modernity in developing societies. Applying a mixed-methods approach, socio-demographic data is collected and contrasted with oral history and personal narratives to analyze social change through women's access to education and reproductive health care in the village. The results are framed within a post-modern and post-colonial feminist anthropological discourse to reveal that Sheherpind represents a model of 'multiple modernities' where women's agency and progress could only be contextualized in non-western, local cultural perspectives. Emerging trends in the village are evaluated for their 'Applied' significance to underscore areas of local, national and transnational policy significance. / Graduation date: 2013

The purpose of this thesis is to study and analyse the development of the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, the effect of their respective outlooks upon the various proposals for settlement brought forward by the United Nations or their own leaders, and the reasons for each subsequent failure to resolve the eighteen year deadlock. Twelve years ago, Michael Brecher concluded in The Struggle for Kashmir that both India and Pakistan had economic, strategic and political interests in the State; and of the three, those brought about by the two-nation theory and the conflicting religious and secular policies were deemed to be the most important. While one cannot disagree with Brecher's general conclusions, this writer feels that the specific importance of Kashmir to either India or Pakistan at any given time is not a constant factor but instead has been influenced by contemporary foreign and domestic events and has been in a perpetual state of change. What was considered of primary importance in 1947, therefore, does not necessarily hold the same position today. Indeed, to single out one factor as the reason for the continuation of the dispute would not only be inopportune, but incorrect. Because of the very nature of the dispute and its international and domestic.characteristics, one is faced by a plethora of material - including White Papers on correspondence; over one hundred Security Council debates; many pamphlets and some thousands of diplomatic newsletters. It has been necessary, therefore, to sift through all available evidence and to extract only that which is pertinent to the topic. It must be realized that because of the importance of Kashmir to both India and Pakistan;, all the information from governmental sources or written by their nationals contains the type of material calculated to present their case in the best possible light. Thus it becomes necessary in many cases - the Pathan incursions in October 1947, the Jinnah-Mountbatten talks and the Mohammed All-Nehru discussions, and the essence of the Nehru-Sheikh Abdullah proposals for federation - to read between the lines in order to trace developments. In the early stages of the dispute, one can sympathize with Pakistan's claim to Kashmir and her efforts to obtain a "free and impartial plebiscite." Unlike India, she accepted every practical proposal brought forward to settle the dispute. Although neither India nor Pakistan produced a statesman capable of resolving the deadlock, the former Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, must be singled out as the major contributor to the continuation of the dispute. It was not that his actions were incomparable with his Pakistani counterparts; but rather that as a statesman of such magnitude, willing to solve the world's problems - with or without invitation he could adopt a self-righteous "Babu" attitude when dealing with the State. Indeed, Nehru appears to have become emotionally incapable of treating Pakistan as an equal; hence the dispute continued in deadlock. India's intransigence has continued in open defiance of the United Nations and in complete contradiction to her earlier promises for self-determination in Kashmir. Notwithstanding the fact that Pakistan, in her effort to gain international support for her Kashmir policy, has virtually talked - herself out of any claim to the State, one can now sympathize with the Indian position. It is not that India is more right today than eighteen years ago, but rather that her interest in the State - originally a prestige issue - has now degenerated to the point where a plebiscite could possibly mean her internal collapse through the onslaught of communalism. She accepted and held Kashmir as a showplace for secularism and for the prestige offered by its geographic location; today she controls a monster within which could lie the seeds of her own destruction. The point of view taken in this thesis, therefore, is that the existing stalemate appears to be the only practical solution to the Kashmir dilemma, and that history may prove Nehru's negative attitude towards Kashmir to have been correct. Nevertheless, it is significant to note that the voice of Kashmiri nationalism has yet to be taken into account. / Arts, Faculty of / History, Department of / Graduate