Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-03-20T12:47:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Matheus Samarone Machado.pdf: 1277931 bytes, checksum: 9a603e1870a69edfdca485aaacc9c807 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-20T12:47:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Matheus Samarone Machado.pdf: 1277931 bytes, checksum: 9a603e1870a69edfdca485aaacc9c807 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-23 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The present research seeks to estimate, through a panel data model, the impacts of the infrastructure investments financed by the BNDES per capita on GDP per capita in each region of Brazil, in order to compare the results between the regions in the period 2003-2014. In order to analyze differences between their multipliers and their conditions after the investments, the impacts were estimated with a one-year gap and without any gap between investments in infrastructure and GDP per capita in the regions. In addition, this research also discusses investments in infrastructure in Brazil, its recent history, the role of BNDES in its promotion and its effects on economic growth / O presente trabalho buscou estimar, por meio de um modelo de dados em painel, os impactos dos investimentos per capita em infraestrutura financiados pelo BNDES sobre o PIB per capita em cada região do Brasil, de modo a comparar os resultados entre as regiões no período 2003-2014. Com o objetivo de analisar diferenças entre seus multiplicadores e suas condições após os investimentos, estimou-se os impactos imediatos e com defasagem de um ano entre os investimentos em infraestrutura e os PIBs per capita nas regiões. Adicionalmente, este trabalho também discute os investimentos em infraestrutura no Brasil, sua história recente, o papel do BNDES em sua promoção e seus efeitos sobre o crescimento econômico

This thesis investigates the relationship between conflict, economic growth, state capacity and natural resources in Sub-Saharan Africa. It contributes to the limited research in this area and empirically examines these relationships using different econometric models. The first empirical chapter uses a panel dataset that covers the period 1997 - 2013 to analyse the effects of economic growth on conflict in Nigeria using the negative binomial model. The findings support the direct relationship between economic growth and conflict in Nigeria. Controlling for other factors, the results indicate that increase in growth rate - measured by annual growth rate of GDP per capita - decreases the expected number of conflicts. The study finds no evidence of a relationship between levels of wealth in a state and the incidence of conflicts. The analysis controls for factors such as spill-over effects from other states and year and state effects. Finally, to address potential concerns that economic growth could be a cause of conflict or that other unobserved factors could confound the relationship between economic growth and conflict, the chapter employs instrumental variable (IV) estimation using percentage change in rainfall as an instrument. The results with the IV estimation are similar to the results without IV in terms of both sign and significance, indicating that the negative effect of economic growth on conflicts is not due to reverse causality or omitted variables. For robustness checks, a Panel Autoregressive model (PVAR) is also employed. The second empirical chapter analyses the effect of conflict on state capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa. State capacity is measured in terms of fiscal and legal capacity. It also looks at the effects of internal and external conflicts on state capacity. The chapter adopts the Ordinary least squared (OLS) and the system generalised methods of moments (GMM) estimation methods to analyse the panel data consisting of 49 Sub-Saharan countries over the period 2000 - 2015. The results suggest that conflicts have a negative and significant effect on state capacity. However, when military expenditure is used as a proxy for state capacity it is found that conflict strengthens state capacity. The results are consistent with theoretical argument that internal conflicts polarise societies and make it more difficult for governments to reach a consensus in investing in state capacity, while external conflicts mobilise domestic population against a common enemy thereby helping in state capacity building. Finally, the third empirical chapter examines the effect of natural resources on conflict onset and duration using discrete choice models with a dataset covering the period 1980 -2016. The results on the duration analysis show that natural resources prolong duration of conflicts. However, it is found that not all natural resources prolong duration of conflicts. Oil production does not seem to affect duration, whereas oil reserves and gas production lengthens the duration. The findings from the onset analysis show that both production and reserves of natural resources increase the risk of conflict onset.

Economia / MASTERS IN ECONOMICS / The relationship between patents and R&D involves different levels besides the ones most obvious to us. Throughout the history of economics, patents have arisen as the core of a system of incentives to private pursue of R&D investments, providing the mechanism that guaranteed the appropriability of the output of the knowledge produced. The seminal work of Romer (1990) demonstrated the need to develop a system to assure the necessary return on innovative efforts and thus privately sustain a model of continuous technological improvement and economic growth. Patenting would result in imperfect competition and legally establish the monopoly over the use of the knowledge produced. This led to patents being perceived as an intermediate output of R&D efforts. Though this relationship has been subject of intensive study by economists, the reverse causality issue remains to be thoroughly analyzed, particularly in a negative sense. Can more patents have a negative effect on R&D investment? In the present thesis we address this question, synthesizing the theoretical and empirical studies concerning both the conventional R&D-patents relationship and the reverse causality, in particular, the potential for a negative impact of patents over R&D. The theoretical survey on this issue uncovered several gaps in the literature, specifically in terms of availability of empirical analysis at the country level. Despite the literature on reverse causality direction being scarce; the macroeconomic perspective on this issue is even more unexplored. In fact, there is no evidence that ruled out the possibility of asymmetric effects of patents on R&D in accordance to the level of GDP and technology in general, and to `convergence clubs in particular. Using panel data econometric estimation methods on a sample of 88 countries, over a eight-year period (1996-2003), and controlling for clubs of convergence to account for differences among countries in stages of economic development, we found mix support to the negativity of patent on R&D investment. Stratifying the sample by convergence clubs we obtain that accumulated patents positively impact on R&D intensity for the set of less developed countries whereas no statistically significant effect emerges in the case of higher developed converge clubs. Interestingly, when we restrict the highest developed convergence club down to countries with a R&D intensity above 3%, the negativity reverse causality arises, corroborating the asymmetric impact of patents on R&D investment depending on countries development and technological stage. Finally, we demonstrate that albeit causality appears to be stronger in the most intuitive appealing traditional direction, there is evidence supporting the theoretical conveyed double causality between R&D and Patent. JEL-codes: O31, O34

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the extent of competition between generic products and therapeutic substitutes under different regulatory regimes in the European Union (EU) pharmaceutical industry. In particular, this study investigates generic competition among the five largest European pharmaceutical markets; the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, with comprehensive IMS data for 10 years (1994-2003), in order to estimate the effect of generic entry on drug prices at the product level. This analysis finds that generic entry has a negative effect on prices in countries with free pricing originator market, whereas in EU countries with strict price and reimbursement regulation, generic competition is ineffective and/or counterproductive. Fewer generics and less competitive late entrants are consistent with incentives in regulated environments: low regulated prices for originator products discourage generic entry following patent expiration. These findings suggest that regulation of both manufacturers' prices and retail pharmacy prices undermines price competition in the off-patent sector, and that budgetary savings from generic price competition are not realized in countries with strict regulatory systems.

This study examines the comparative magnitude of disturbances in intraday data for exchange traded foreign exchange (FX) options. An in-depth time series analysis on the frequency and extent of discrepancies in the disturbances is conducted. The purpose of this study is twofold. First, using intraday data and trading volume, this study attempts to determine whether both put-call parity and lower boundary conditions consistently hold for exchange traded options written on U.S. dollar denominated options on the Euro trading on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX). Second, this study attempts to investigate the magnitude of any discrepancies that may exist due to a temporary cessation of either put-call parity or lower boundary conditions. Intraday (tick-by-tick) bid prices, ask prices, and trading volume on U.S. dollar denominated European style call options and put options on the Euro are obtained. Option data is collected through a Structured Query Language (SQL) request from the Bloomberg database. Corresponding tick-by-tick spot rates for the underlying exchange rate are obtained for the same time period. Tick-by-tick 3-month Treasury bill rates are obtained to for use as the relevant risk-free interest rate. The primary data set spans an approximate one month period from 11/1/2011 to 12/6/2011. Call and option pricing data for near-the-money exercise prices are obtained for options expiring in December 2011, January 2012, February 2012, March 2012, June 2012, and September 2012. A total of 7,212 ticks (minutes) are analyzed for the conversion strategy and 7,209 ticks are analyzed for the reversal strategy. The data is structured into an unbalanced panel data set (cross-sectional time series data) using put-call pairs as the cross sectional units and ticks as the time-series unit. To test the efficiency of the foreign exchange options market, lower boundary and put-call parity conditions were tested on tick-by-tick currency option data. Analysis shows that lower boundary conditions hold for the overwhelming majority of options, with less than 0.0001% of violations for the observed options. A more detailed econometric analysis was prepared to test the put-call parity condition for currency options. A fixed effects model specification is used to describe the put-call parity relationship. Based on the analysis, it is possible to obtain arbitrage profits in the short run through the use of either a conversion or reversal strategy even after accounting for transaction costs. Taking the first differences of the variables resulted in a model with stationary variables and statistically significant estimators. The inclusion of dummy variables for moneyness did not add significant explanatory power to the deterministic put-call parity relationship. For both first differences of conversion and reversal strategies, the large t-statistics for the slope coefficients and intercept terms indicate a rejection of the null hypothesis, H0: λ0 = 0 and λ1 = 1 after adjusting for standard error. This implies that once transaction costs are adjusted for, put-call parity does not hold. However, the intercept term is only very slightly negative, and the intercept term is only slightly less than one in both cases. This implies that when put-call parity is violated, arbitrage profit should be relatively small.

Africa is one of the richest continents on the planet in terms of natural resources, but has the highest poverty rate, fastest growing population and includes many of the world ́s most corrupt countries. There is an ongoing discussion if the quality of institutions affects economic growth, and the applicability of economic institutional theory to the African continent. North and Thomas (1973) argues that indicators such as education innovation, capital accumulation, etc. are not causes of growth itself but rather the growth itself. Instead they suggest that economic institutions are the fundamental reason behind economic growth, since they allow new ideas, and firms and stakeholders to exist in the market. Our research question therefore examines if the quality of institutions can explain the rate of economic growth in Africa? In this study we used a panel data analysis based on 12 variables including, GDP per capita growth, Rule of Law, Control of corruption, Voice and Accountability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Education, Population, Foreign Direct Investment, Gross Capital Formation as well as initial GDP, between year 2003-2017, to examine the relationship between economic performance and institutional quality in 50 African countries. Our results showed that six out of our six institutional variables had a positive significant effect on economic growth. This supports the theory that institutional quality impacts economic growth.

為解決地方財政問題，落實地方自治，自2002年12月「地方稅法通則」發佈以來，各地方政府在於「租稅法定主義」及「公共選擇理論」中官員、民代、利益團體之運作之下，開源確有其困難性，因此開發新稅源或稅目，不如對於現有之租稅債權著手。欠稅係指納稅義務人應繳納而未繳納之稅捐，對於稅制之「公平性」及「效率」均有極大之影響；本文試就當年度欠稅之發生原因著手，期能抑制新欠之發生與擴大。因此利用2003年至2008年共6年間，臺灣地區23縣市欠稅之追蹤資料，別以就總體經濟變數、納稅義務人相關變數、稅目及稅捐稽徵機關相關變數等三方面，針對各縣市政府欠稅原因分為以不動產為主之房屋稅及動產為主之牌照稅及總欠稅之比率進行迴歸分析，實證結果顯示，一：欠稅之主要影響原因為經濟成長率與各縣市每戶平均所得，故所得乃納稅義務人欠稅之主要原因，牌照稅為財產稅中之動產，其流動性較高，故易受總體經濟變數之影響；而房屋稅為財產稅中之不動產，其流動性較低，較不易受總體經濟因素之影響，二：自2007稅捐稽徵法第6條修正後，由於修法前地價稅及房屋稅無優先受償，修法後排擠牌照稅應得受償之部分，故造成牌照稅之欠稅率愈高；三：財產稅中牌照稅之罰則、違章相對較多且重，依牌照稅法第28條第2項納稅義務人車輛逾期未驗車，遭監理機關通知逾檢註銷時，納稅義務人若行使道路遭取締違規時，除罰本稅每年均加罰2倍，造成納稅義務人相當大之負擔，無力繳納；四：都市化程度的上升提高房價，加重人民的負擔，且新屋之折舊年數少，且隨地段率、經濟景氣、房屋建材價格不斷提高，造成核算之課稅現值較重，對於初次貸款購屋者乃為一大負擔，因此本文建議， 重新檢討修正稅捐稽徵法、牌照稅罰則及房屋稅對於購屋貸款者於新購、裝潢中之房屋改採住家用稅率，以減輕民眾納稅的負擔，減少欠稅之發生。

隨著全球化與國際化趨勢越來越普及與受到重視，國際間資本與人力流動越加頻繁，因而造成世界各國均面臨強大的國際競爭壓力，而紛紛力求可以打造吸引國際資本停駐投資之最佳環境，其中北歐四個國家，就冀望透過採取雙元所得稅制 (Dual Income Tax, 以下簡稱DIT) 的租稅制度改革，來改善國內投資環境。DIT係將所得來源依勞動所得及資本所得分成兩類，對勞動薪資所得課累進稅率，而資本所得按比例稅制稽徵，其目的即盼望促進資本累積，並降低租稅對資本所造成的扭曲，建構一個取消租稅優惠，同時可以擴大稅基的租稅環境。為了探討DIT究竟對於經濟成長有無助益，本研究利用歐洲18個國家從1983年至2008年之總體經濟追蹤資料，以是否實行DIT為主要虛擬變數，同時加入文獻中所舉出影響經濟成長之幾個重要變數進行迴歸分析，實證結果發現，實行DIT對於GDP成長率的效果並不顯著；但對於GDP之水準值效果卻有顯著正向影響，這也表示就整體GDP相對水準來說，實行DIT的國家，其GDP水準值本身也會較高，但卻不一定對GDP成長率有明顯的助益，究其原因可能為實行DIT稅制或許對GDP有正向的效益，但這效果可能出自於其國家自身經濟實力已經相當不錯，而當經濟發展程度已達到了某種臨界值，要再求GDP之成長率能夠顯而易見的提升，往往會有所難度，因此實行DIT對經濟發展就無法再有太大的激勵效果。 台灣近年來也致力於稅制改革，於效率面的考量上，DIT不失為一項值得努力之方向，然而事實上不可能存在一個可以保證完全讓人都滿意的稅制，所有方針都是在不同考量下做出取捨，因此不妨參循DIT的細節與版本來加以改良修正，針對個別國家發展特性與民情來制定稅制，才是所有政府值得努力與應該思考的方向。

恆常所得假說認為消費者依終生期望所得來做消費規劃，不受短暫性所得變動而改變消費。然實際資料顯示：在景氣循環過程中，暫時性所得變動確會影響消費變動，顯示該假說實際上不成立。本文利用華人家庭動態資料庫，配合追蹤性資料的計量方法來進行檢測該假說。實證結果發現：消費行為違反恆常所得假說。接著加入景氣變換來解釋消費違反恆常所得假說導因於流動性限制。最後利用追蹤性資料的特性，從世代差異的角度看消費者違反恆常所得假說，發現不同世代受流動性限制的影響效果不同，隨著年齡增加，消費者違反恆常所得假說的情況愈弱。 / Permanent income hypothesis(PIH) states that consumers make choices regarding their longer-term income expectations. Transitory income variety could not affect consumption. However, the reality is that consumption would be affected by transitory income during economic fluctuation, and this fact violates the hypothesis. Due to this reason, this paper use Taiwanese panel data : PSFD(Panel Study of Family Dynamics) and econometric model to test the hypothesis. In the empirical results, we concluded: Taiwanese consumption violated PIH. Then generation difference was incorporated into the model to explain the degree of violation of PIH. And the result explained that the generation difference exists in the degree of PIH’s violation.

<p>In this thesis, Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs are used to measure the effects of organized crime on young men’s experience of narcotics. The study relies on panel data for Swedish counties stretching over the period 1995-2005, using results from conscript surveys to determine young men’s experience of narcotics. When applying a fixed effect model, the results show that Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs actually have a negative effect on the experience of narcotics among 18-year-old Swedish men. However, when lagging the time of establishment for the gangs one year, positive estimates are derived for individuals ever used, or been offered to use illicit narcotics. These findings are only significant on a ten percent level, but the results could implicate that it may take some time for the Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs to penetrate new markets; finding a profitable way of adapting to the new market conditions. Due to possible problems with endogeneity, it’s difficult to derive any definitive conclusions regarding the true effects of Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs. It’s possible that the location of a new OMG is partially determined by the use of narcotics, wherefore the results are to be taken with some caution.</p>