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Risk-averse periodic preventive maintenance optimizationSingh, Inderjeet,1978- 21 December 2011 (has links)
We consider a class of periodic preventive maintenance (PM) optimization problems, for a single piece of equipment that deteriorates with time or use, and can be repaired upon failure, through corrective maintenance (CM). We develop analytical and simulation-based optimization models that seek an optimal periodic PM policy, which minimizes the sum of the expected total cost of PMs and the risk-averse cost of CMs, over a finite planning horizon. In the simulation-based models, we assume that both types of maintenance actions are imperfect, whereas our analytical models consider imperfect PMs with minimal CMs. The effectiveness of maintenance actions is modeled using age reduction factors. For a repairable unit of equipment, its virtual age, and not its calendar age, determines the associated failure rate. Therefore, two sets of parameters, one describing the effectiveness of maintenance actions, and the other that defines the underlying failure rate of a piece of equipment, are critical to our models. Under a given maintenance policy, the two sets of parameters and a virtual-age-based age-reduction model, completely define the failure process of a piece of equipment. In practice, the true failure rate, and exact quality of the maintenance actions, cannot be determined, and are often estimated from the equipment failure history.
We use a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation, under which a random-walk-based Gibbs sampler provides posterior estimates for the parameters of interest. Our posterior estimates for a few datasets from the literature, are consistent with published results. Furthermore, our computational results successfully demonstrate that our Gibbs sampler is arguably the obvious choice over a general rejection sampling-based parameter estimation method, for this class of problems. We present a general simulation-based periodic PM optimization model, which uses the posterior estimates to simulate the number of operational equipment failures, under a given periodic PM policy. Optimal periodic PM policies, under the classical maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian estimates are obtained for a few datasets. Limitations of the ML approach are revealed for a dataset from the literature, in which the use of ML estimates of the parameters, in the maintenance optimization model, fails to capture a trivial optimal PM policy.
Finally, we introduce a single-stage and a two-stage formulation of the risk-averse periodic PM optimization model, with imperfect PMs and minimal CMs. Such models apply to a class of complex equipment with many parts, operational failures of which are addressed by replacing or repairing a few parts, thereby not affecting the failure rate of the equipment under consideration. For general values of PM age reduction factors, we provide sufficient conditions to establish the convexity of the first and second moments of the number of failures, and the risk-averse expected total maintenance cost, over a finite planning horizon. For increasing Weibull rates and a general class of increasing and convex failure rates, we show that these convexity results are independent of the PM age reduction factors. In general, the optimal periodic PM policy under the single-stage model is no better than the optimal two-stage policy. But if PMs are assumed perfect, then we establish that the single-stage and the two-stage optimization models are equivalent. / text
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Začleňování fotovoltaických elektráren do elektrizační soustavy / Integration of Photovoltaic Power Plants in the Electricity SystemMichl, Pavel January 2010 (has links)
The thesis discuses an integration of photovoltaic power stations to electric network. The first part describes connecting conditions of small sources to distribution system, including administrative requirements, feasibility study, and requirements to the energy meters, measuring, control devices, switching devices and protection. The second part is aimed to describe problems of the photovoltaic system. Solar radiation generating and reducing of its intensity incident upon the earth surface are described in this part. The quantum of produced electric power depends on climatic conditions in the fixed area, seasons, etc. This work also discusses the types of photovoltaic cells and their actual efficiency. Inverters are further important components of the photovoltaic system. The parameters of the inverters have a great influence on the total actual efficiency of the photovoltaic system. Different methods of the photovoltaic panels’ connection with the inverters and their advantages and disadvantages are also mentioned. The supporting structure of the photovoltaic panels and eventually transformer are further important components of photovoltaic system. The work also analyze the methods of connection of the photovoltaic power station to distributive low voltage and medium voltage network, electric energy accumulation and possibilities of the sale of produced electric energy. The large number of the connected photovoltaic power stations has negative influences to electric network. The third part contains the design of a photovoltaic power plant with a capacity of 516,24 kWp on the scoped area in southern Bohemia. The project documentation for the location where the power plant is designed is also made. It contains the design of photovoltaic panels, the design of the inverters to get an optimal power load. This part also contains a calculation of the photovoltaic system losses and the design of transformer and the cable junction calculation of the distributive system. The feasibility study of the power plant connected to distributive system is also conducted. Its delivery rate will be connected to the distribution point Řípov (110/22 kV). The calculation results show us that this photovoltaic power plant can be linked to the distribution system. The final part of this paper contains an economic estimate of the photovoltaic power plant operating and the calculation of the return. An Economic return is influenced by the wide range of values that affect the total return rate. The calculation of an operating economy is made for several variants. The return rate in refer to contemporary redemption price for 2010 with no consideration for a bank loan is 7 years. If we consider the bank loan it would be 12 years. The penetrative reduction of the redemption price is expected for 2011. Calculation works with the decline of 30 %. It would extend the rate of return to 11 years without a bank loan or to 22 years with the bank loan. The bank loan is considered to cover 80 % of the investment.
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Distribuční soustava Kypru - realizovatelnost obnovitelných zdrojů a přenos energie / Distribution system of Cyprus - feasibility of renewable energy sources and transfer of energyŠimonová, Lucie January 2011 (has links)
Until a few decades ago few people could imagine that the photovoltaic, solar thermal and other power based on renewable resources, will become a reality. Today people from all over the world on the contrary try at full blast derive benefit from of all possible available source. Using sunlight as a source of energy is first enforced only for small devices such as calculators for charging the battery, but now we are able to produced energy from the sun to supply people around the world. Of course it is not possible supply consumer sector plus firm only from performances renewable power supply. Therefore endeavour is derive benefit from classical energy production at the same time with others power supply. The basic components of photovoltaic and solar thermal power are panels. The panels are made of different materials in different shapes and sizes. During production, the resulting effect looks in addition to costs associated with production. For photovoltaic and solar thermal power plant requires sufficient sunlight. The sunshine has biggest intensity on south of ours planets. Therefore endeavour is build lump these power station just in stand with bigger intensity sunshine. One of them is just Cyprus, too.
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