In this study, the semi-empirical approach is introduced to accurately estimate the probability distribution of complex non-linear random variables in the field of wavestructure interaction. The structural form of the semi-empirical distribution is developed based on a mathematical representation of the process and the model parameters are estimated directly from utilization of the sample data. Here, three probability distributions are developed based on the quadratic transformation of the linear random variable. Assuming that the linear process follows a standard Gaussian distribution, the three-parameter Gaussian-Stokes model is derived for the second-order variables. Similarly, the three-parameter Rayleigh-Stokes model and the four-parameter Weibull- Stokes model are derived for the crests, troughs, and heights of non-linear process assuming that the linear variable has a Rayleigh distribution or a Weibull distribution. The model parameters are empirically estimated with the application of the conventional method of moments and the newer method of L-moments. Furthermore, the application of semi-empirical models in extreme analysis and estimation of extreme statistics is discussed. As a main part of this research study, the sensitivity of the model statistics to the variability of the model parameters as well as the variability in the samples is evaluated. In addition, the sample size effects on the performance of parameter estimation methods are studied. Utilizing illustrative examples, the application of semi-empirical probability distributions in the estimation of probability distribution of non-linear random variables is studied. The examples focused on the probability distribution of: wave elevations and wave crests of ocean waves and waves in the area close to an offshore structure, wave run-up over the vertical columns of an offshore structure, and ocean wave power resources. In each example, the performance of the semi-empirical model is compared with appropriate theoretical and empirical distribution models. It is observed that the semi-empirical models are successful in capturing the probability distribution of complex non-linear variables. The semi-empirical models are more flexible than the theoretical models in capturing the probability distribution of data and the models are generally more robust than the commonly used empirical models.

Africa’s quest for economic development will require the increased availability and use of its abundant energy resources. Nevertheless, most of its rural population remains without access to modern energy services and urban residents typically only enjoy an intermittent supply of electricity. The dominant approach to energy planning in West Africa is top-down and centralized, emphasizing electricity generation from large dams or fossil-fueled plants and subsequent grid extension to reach more customers. However, an alternative and complementary paradigm is that of decentralized or Distributed Generation (DG), which stresses small-scale, on-site generation of power and offers a bottom-up approach to energy development. The goal of this dissertation project is to assess the various options for regional electrification and integration through a holistic analysis of the set of existing technologies and policies for deploying them. The main organ of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for regional electricity planning is the West African Power Pool (WAPP) and its primary policy document, the “Master Plan”, addresses regional power supply shortage through centralized planning. Both the WAPP policy documents and the majority of the country-level planning documents are considered to be based on a traditional, empiricist, policy analysis that appears to provide value-neutral solutions and generalizations. In contrast, the analysis provided in this project situates itself within the post-positivistic, deliberative and more contextual approach to policy analysis in order to compare the centralized approach to generation with a distributed approach, which is currently marginal in the region. It uses the Adaptive Management (AM) framework for this analysis, particularly because of the way it deals with ecological resilience in the face of widespread uncertainty. The main policy issue that this project seeks to address is the need for an integrated energy-environment planning process, which is currently lacking in West Africa, so as to achieve long term sustainability. Adaptive management offers policy makers a holistic lens with which to view energy policy, but there are very few examples of institutions that have attempted to implement it in practice anywhere in the world. These instances, however, represent a valuable historical reference point for future policy research and management efforts that seek to explore this approach. In alignment with that objective, this dissertation first provides an overview of the concept of adaptive management in general, and its application to energy problems in particular. Secondly, the research project undertakes a policy analysis of the ECOWAS strategy for electrification, based on a stakeholder analysis, a review of life cycle assessments of existing energy technologies, the expected outcomes of the electricity sector, and a set of traditional criteria for evaluating public policies. In order to further examine the question of electricity access, it carries out a quantitative analysis of the electricity demand and supply in the region. It uses a modeling approach that is based on the logic of AM to determine whether or not the energy requirements for broad based electrification can be met through distributed renewable power, which is currently a negligible component of the generation resource portfolio in West Africa. The dissertation proceeds to carry out a retrospective analysis of three cases in the U.S. where elements of AM have already been applied to energy planning in order to investigate some of the critical determinants for its successful implementation to date. This assessment then informs a prospective analysis of three West African cases that have ideal characteristics for experimentation with AM to determine to what extent similar concepts have been used, or may be employed in the future. The AM framework also calls for the consideration of local values, which should be open to revision in the face of real situations. To this end, the prospective analysis includes three additional place-sensitive criteria, so as to ensure that the framework remains viable in a different socio-political context. The AM analyses are then extended to include a discussion of learning and innovation in clean energy technologies, drawing from the Chinese, Danish and South African experiences. The results suggest that a strong and consistent political will that is in alignment with an explicit social policy is needed to initiate and implement broad-based electrification plans, but that stakeholder participation is critical to their success. In addition, the adoption of multiple instruments and the selection of a diverse range of energy resources were found to be more effective than an overreliance on a single dominant scheme so as to allow room for policy learning. Furthermore, the results confirm that a holistic approach to managing ecosystems associated with electric power production is a fruitful way to integrate ecological considerations with social and economic factors throughout the development of a project. This type of systemic methodology should also include the building of technological capability and the development of innovation capacity in order to address the unique socio-economic context and the rapidly-changing climatic conditions in West Africa. Finally, the articulation of a planning philosophy that engages the values and sensibilities of the people in a particular place, and that is rooted in them, was found to be a critical factor for increasing the level of public participation in management activities in order to achieve more equitable and democratic outcomes.

This study employs ethnographic research to investigate the extent to which local governance affects both poverty and natural resources management in the Delta region. The research develops a framework for governance of natural resources to understand the daily practices of different actors within the local context using informal observation and interviews. In applying the framework, the study places emphasis on resources for governance, actors' agency, arrangements of access to resources and governance outcomes in the Delta region. Evidence from the study shows that while the state and corporate actors only contextualise resources in terms of economic value, local actors interprete resources beyond economic value to incorporate symbolic and socio-culturally constructed values linked with historic values. The study also identified relational, routine practices and structural factors which differently shape actors' agency for resources management. The context which shapes different arrangements of access to local resources by actors varies. These arrangements are subject to negotiation, power differences and socio-cultural factors. The findings related to governance outcomes reveal both positive (favourable) and negative (unfavourable) outcomes for the livelihood of different actors. The study concludes by exploring implications for local governance in order to address poverty and enhance optimal resource management in the Delta region.

In 1971, Robert Bourassa, then Premier of Quebec, launched a major hydroelectric scheme to be built 1400 km North of Montreal. Known as the "James Bay" project, the first phase included the creation of eight powerhouses, six reservoirs and the diversion of two rivers. These transformations necessarily impacted the local Cree people; a territorial agreement partly compensated them but remains controversial to this day. While northern communities overwhelmingly bear the ecological cost of the project, the bulk of James Bay energy flows south to the industrial centers of Quebec, Ontario and the U.S. The assertion then that "James Bay belongs to all the Quebecois" which was meant to ease political tensions about the project begs the question, "Who are the Quebecois" and how do the Crees fit within such a community? This thesis explore that question by looking at the Quebecois cultural production of territory and its resources in the north. If James Bay was out of reach, it was never out of view. Media and political discourses reiterated key elements of a Quebecois cultural relationship to place, some of which are contained in the rural literature known as the roman de la terre. Several elements of this literature and its broader context were recontextualized in James Bay, particularly as they pertained to the will to occupy the land and develop natural resources. This was an important aspect of making James Bay - a land historically inhabited by the Crees - into a "Quebecois" national landscape. I suggest that this process was largely rooted in representations of nature that sought to bind it with nation and national identity. Thus James Bay demonstrates the close connection between identity and environmental struggles. For the Quebecois, the access to James Bay was supported by a territorial discourse that performed their own cultural past. This provoked an organized resistance from the Crees which constituted them as a modern political unit. A look at the cultural geography of the region highlights the political scales created in the accessing of resources that render their equitable and sustainable use more difficult to achieve.

This thesis investigates the impact of integrating wind power into deregulated power systems. It includes a discussion of the history of deregulation and the development of Independent System Operators and Regional Transmission Operators and their role in managing deregulated power systems. A linear algebra optimization model is used to explore the impact of wind power on the operation of the BC and Alberta power systems. The model is used to evaluate the costs and benefits of reducing carbon emissions by adjusting transmission size concurrently with wind integration as well as the value of BC Hydro’s storage dams. Both drought and normal water year scenarios are considered.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Flinders University, School of Politics and International Studies. / Typescript bound. Includes bibliographical references: (leaves 336-398) Also available online.

O objetivo central da tese é analisar se e como as economias emergentes ganharam poder no cenário político internacional, através do aumento de seus recursos de poder econômico. Como o foco do trabalho foi direcionado para a evolução do poder econômico das economias emergentes e suas implicações para o sistema de nações, a atenção maior foi dada às movimentações da economia política internacional, que não estão restritas aos organismos financeiros internacionais. Buscou-se mostrar que o jogo de poder se dá, preponderantemente, entre os Estados-nacionais. Neste trabalho foi analisado o funcionamento do sistema internacional contemporâneo, abordando-o através das principais correntes teóricas das relações internacionais. O tema em foco foi a distribuição de poder econômico no cenário político internacional. A hipótese considerada foi que alguns países emergentes têm aumentado seu poder global e desta forma impactado a organização do sistema e as relações econômicas internacionais. No capítulo 2 defende-se que o poder econômico, atualmente, pode ser considerado a principal fonte de poder tendo em vista os temas da agenda das relações internacionais. Defende-se que mesmo os EUA não sendo mais a nação hegemônica que garante a estabilidade do sistema, este ainda é o sistema criado pelos americanos e não há evidência de que haja alguma nação capaz de assumir a liderança e implantar outro sistema. Por último defendo que vivemos em um sistema internacional híbrido, que ora é anárquico, ora é cooperativo ou coordenado, dependendo da agenda internacional. O capítulo 3 trata das instituições de Bretton Woods e analisa sua evolução e o papel da moeda padrão. Reforça a análise do capítulo anterior quanto à inexistência de um movimento de ruptura ou mesmo de substituição da moeda americana como referência das transações internacionais inclusive na hipótese da adoção de uma unidade de conta baseada numa cesta de moedas. O atual sistema monetário internacional, no qual países exportadores de petróleo e a China sustentam o dólar americano como moeda de referência e o nível de consumo dos americanos, é a prova das dificuldades de institucionalização de uma nova ordem. No capítulo 4 distinguem-se os conceitos econômicos para estipular a melhora do bem-estar da população e como as mesmas estatísticas são utilizadas para medir o poder nas relações econômicas internacionais. Baseado no exposto considera-se que as economias emergentes estão aumentando sua fonte de poder econômico e começa a influir nas decisões que durante décadas foram limitadas ao G-7 e as evidências disso são a constituição do G-20, a participação no Grupo de Estabilidade Financeira do BIS e o aumento do peso nos votos do FMI. / The main objective of this thesis is to examine whether and how emerging economies have gained power in the international political scene, by increasing their economic power resources. As the focus of the study was directed towards the development of the economic power of emerging economies and its implications for the system of nations, greater attention was given to the movements of international political economy, which are not restricted to international financial organizations. We tried to show that the power game occurs, mainly, among National States. This work analyzed the functioning of the contemporary international system by addressing it through the principal theories of international relations. The theme in focus was the distribution of economic power in the international political scenario. The assumption made was that some emerging countries are increasing their global power and thus impacted the organization of the system and international economic relations. Chapter 2 argues that the economic power may currently be considered the main source of power in view of the topics on international relations agenda. It is argued that the U.S. is not even the most homogenous nation which ensures the stability of the system, this is still the system created by the Americans and there is no evidence that there is any nation able to take the leadership and implement a different system. Finally It’s argued that we live in an international hybrid system, which is sometimes anarchic, sometimes it is cooperative or coordinated depending on the international agenda. Chapter 3 deals with the Bretton Woods institutions and examines their evolution and role of the currency standard. Reinforces the analysis of the previous chapter as to the absence of a movement to break or even replacement of the U.S. currency as a benchmark for international transactions including the assumption of adopting a unit of account based on a basket of currencies. The current international monetary system in which oil exporters and China support the U.S. dollar as reference currency and the level of consumption of Americans is proof of the difficulties of institutionalizing a new order. Chapter 4 distinguished economic concepts to provide the improvement well-being of the population and how those statistics are used to measure power in international economic relations. Based on the foregoing it is considered that emerging economies are increasing their sources of economic power and begin to influence decisions which for decades limited to the G-7 and the evidence for this is the formation of G-20, participation in the Group Stability Financial BIS and increasing their weight in votes in the IMF.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:52:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissJCC.pdf: 1255100 bytes, checksum: f56beba0f6e0c5c6ab4fd8495a0a8523 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-05-19 / In a very complex sector like the milk it is important to discuss the Govern action. This issue has been discussed very hard in all international meetings about trading. In the Brazilian case its possible to visualize two different periods of Government action, the regulation and the self-regulation. So, the processes between these periods has caused different kind of impacts to the actors. Among all the problems created are the exclusion of milk producers, workers and cooperatives. The main issue of this work are the changes happened in the beginning of ninety years, when the Government stopped regulating the milk sector. Another objective is to describe and analyze the formation of the milk policy network in the São Paulo state considering the institutional environment and the governance structure. The object of analyze is the milk policy network, the unit of analyze is the negotiation among the actors and the variable of analyzes are the power resources (constitutional, policy, financial, organizational, technological and juridical). / No caso brasileiro observam-se claramente dois períodos distintos com relação ao modo de regulação do setor lácteo, a regulação estatal e a auto-regulação. Existe, portanto, um processo de desregulamentação de mercado causando impactos variados a todos os atores do setor, além de conseqüências estruturais significativas. Dentre os problemas observados estão a nova estrutura de oportunidades criada e a exclusão de muitos atores, tais como pecuaristas, cooperativas, trabalhadores, entre outros. O tema central da presente dissertação é a desregulamentação do mercado lácteo nacional, tendo como foco a produção leiteira e as negociações que se desenvolvem no estado de São Paulo. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é analisar o processo de formação da rede de poder láctea paulista a partir das negociações dos atores envolvidos, do ambiente institucional constituído e da estrutura de governança estabelecida. Os recursos de poder (constitucionais, políticos, financeiros, tecnológicos, organizacionais e jurídicos) foram identificados nas fontes primárias e secundárias e descritos em ordem cronológica de modo a servirem de base para a análise da formação da rede de poder láctea paulista. A partir dos recursos de poder o presente trabalho buscou entender as mudanças estruturais da rede de poder láctea no estado de São Paulo, fundamentadas nos processos de busca e detenção dos mesmos entre os atores lácteos paulistas. Neste processo de análise, além de evidenciar o processo de formação da rede láctea paulista, foi possível mostrar os aspectos econômicos e políticos mais relevantes da desregulamentação estatal ocorrida durante a década de 90.

Essa dissertação propôs como tema de estudo um panorama das energias renováveis e menos poluentes no Brasil, com enfoque para as mudanças climáticas globais, mais especificamente a emissão de gases de efeito estufa. O objetivo da pesquisa foi analisar a matriz energética brasileira no que se refere à relação entre a oferta de energia renovável, regulamentada pelas políticas e programas governamentais e a emissão de gases de efeito estufa. Esta análise foi realizada por meio de uma contextualização da matriz energética brasileira no panorama mundial, da relação entre os usos de energias com as mudanças climáticas globais e do estudo dos programas energéticos brasileiros e sua contribuição para minimizar a emissão de poluentes atmosféricos. Para o desenvolvimento deste estudo foi realizado um levantamento histórico, por meio de revisão bibliográfica, do uso da energia e de programas energéticos governamentais, da oferta de energia e emissões de CO2 e cenários para o ano de 2030, dos acordos internacionais e mecanismos para a mitigação de mudanças climáticas, dos setores da sociedade brasileira que mais consomem energia e quais as fontes utilizadas por esses setores, das tecnologias de energias renováveis disponíveis e os danos climáticos por elas causados nos processos energéticos. A ótica epistemológica sistêmica fundamentou essa dissertação, cujo método mostrou-se adequado ao encaminhamento da questão energética para o jogo de harmonização entre recursos naturais, consumo e danos climáticos, com base na visão de uma ecossocioeconomia. Como principais resultados verificou-se que é possível aumentar a participação de energias renováveis e menos poluentes tais como eólica, solar, PCH e biomassa na matriz energética brasileira e promover a eficiência energética de forma a aumentar a oferta de energia, diminuindo a necessidade da utilização de recursos energéticos naturais e os impactos ambientais decorrentes. Constatou-se que as políticas e programas energéticos governamentais contribuem para o incentivo do uso de energias renováveis e para a melhoria dos índices de poluentes atmosféricos. Concluiu-se que para mitigar a emissão de gases de efeito estufa a partir dos processos energéticos e simultaneamente garantir a continuidade do desenvolvimento econômico faz-se necessário um conjunto de medidas que inclua: a substituição gradativa de fontes fósseis na matriz energética por fontes renováveis, associada à eficiência energética e a programas governamentais integrados e viáveis em termos políticos, econômicos, tecnológicos e sócio-ambientais. Observou-se que há um jogo de forças envolvendo energia entre as necessidades sócio-ambientais e de desenvolvimento econômico e, portanto, no momento presente e para um futuro próximo não há como descartar a total utilização de energias não renováveis (termelétricas a combustíveis fósseis e a energia nuclear e combustíveis fósseis para o setor de transportes), tendo em vista a necessidade de se atender à questão da segurança energética. / This thesis proposed as subject of study an overview of renewable and less pollutant energy in Brazil, focusing on global climate change, specifically the emission of greenhouse gases. The objective of the research is to analyze the Brazilian energy matrix with respect to the relation between the supply of renewable energy, regulated by governmental policies and programs, and the issue of greenhouse gases. This analysis is made through a contextualization of the Brazilian energy matrix in the world scene, of the relation between the uses of energy and global climate change, and of the analysis of energy programs in Brazil and their contribution to minimize the emission of air pollutants. For this study, a historical survey was conducted, by means of literature review, on the use of energy and governmental energy programs, energy supply, CO2 emissions and scenarios for the year 2030, international agreements and mechanisms for climate change mitigation, sectors of Brazilian society that consume more energy and what are the sources they use, renewable energy technologies available and the climate damage caused by them in energy processes. The systemic epistemological view has based this thesis, since this method was suitable for the managing of the energy issue for the game of harmonization among natural resources, consumption and climate damage, based on the view of an ecossocioeconomia. The main results showed that it is possible to increase the share of less pollutant and renewable energy such as wind, solar, small hydropower plants and biomass in the Brazilian energy matrix and promote energy efficiency in order to increase the supply of energy, reducing the need of using natural energy resources and the consequent environmental impact. It was noted that governmental energy policies and programs contribute to encourage the use of renewable energy and to improve levels of air pollutants. It was concluded that, in order to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases from energy processes while guaranteeing the continuity of economic development, a set of measures is necessary, including: gradual replacement of fossil fuels in energy matrix by renewable sources, in association with energy efficiency, and integrated and viable governmental programs in political, economic, technological and socio-environmental terms. It was observed that there is an interplay of forces involving energy between socio-environmental and economic development and, therefore, at present and near future there is no way to rule out the use of totally non-renewable energy (thermoelectric power plants run by fossil fuels and nuclear energy, and fossil fuels for the transportation sector), considering the need to address the issue of energy safety. / 5000-11-25

Essa dissertação propôs como tema de estudo um panorama das energias renováveis e menos poluentes no Brasil, com enfoque para as mudanças climáticas globais, mais especificamente a emissão de gases de efeito estufa. O objetivo da pesquisa foi analisar a matriz energética brasileira no que se refere à relação entre a oferta de energia renovável, regulamentada pelas políticas e programas governamentais e a emissão de gases de efeito estufa. Esta análise foi realizada por meio de uma contextualização da matriz energética brasileira no panorama mundial, da relação entre os usos de energias com as mudanças climáticas globais e do estudo dos programas energéticos brasileiros e sua contribuição para minimizar a emissão de poluentes atmosféricos. Para o desenvolvimento deste estudo foi realizado um levantamento histórico, por meio de revisão bibliográfica, do uso da energia e de programas energéticos governamentais, da oferta de energia e emissões de CO2 e cenários para o ano de 2030, dos acordos internacionais e mecanismos para a mitigação de mudanças climáticas, dos setores da sociedade brasileira que mais consomem energia e quais as fontes utilizadas por esses setores, das tecnologias de energias renováveis disponíveis e os danos climáticos por elas causados nos processos energéticos. A ótica epistemológica sistêmica fundamentou essa dissertação, cujo método mostrou-se adequado ao encaminhamento da questão energética para o jogo de harmonização entre recursos naturais, consumo e danos climáticos, com base na visão de uma ecossocioeconomia. Como principais resultados verificou-se que é possível aumentar a participação de energias renováveis e menos poluentes tais como eólica, solar, PCH e biomassa na matriz energética brasileira e promover a eficiência energética de forma a aumentar a oferta de energia, diminuindo a necessidade da utilização de recursos energéticos naturais e os impactos ambientais decorrentes. Constatou-se que as políticas e programas energéticos governamentais contribuem para o incentivo do uso de energias renováveis e para a melhoria dos índices de poluentes atmosféricos. Concluiu-se que para mitigar a emissão de gases de efeito estufa a partir dos processos energéticos e simultaneamente garantir a continuidade do desenvolvimento econômico faz-se necessário um conjunto de medidas que inclua: a substituição gradativa de fontes fósseis na matriz energética por fontes renováveis, associada à eficiência energética e a programas governamentais integrados e viáveis em termos políticos, econômicos, tecnológicos e sócio-ambientais. Observou-se que há um jogo de forças envolvendo energia entre as necessidades sócio-ambientais e de desenvolvimento econômico e, portanto, no momento presente e para um futuro próximo não há como descartar a total utilização de energias não renováveis (termelétricas a combustíveis fósseis e a energia nuclear e combustíveis fósseis para o setor de transportes), tendo em vista a necessidade de se atender à questão da segurança energética. / This thesis proposed as subject of study an overview of renewable and less pollutant energy in Brazil, focusing on global climate change, specifically the emission of greenhouse gases. The objective of the research is to analyze the Brazilian energy matrix with respect to the relation between the supply of renewable energy, regulated by governmental policies and programs, and the issue of greenhouse gases. This analysis is made through a contextualization of the Brazilian energy matrix in the world scene, of the relation between the uses of energy and global climate change, and of the analysis of energy programs in Brazil and their contribution to minimize the emission of air pollutants. For this study, a historical survey was conducted, by means of literature review, on the use of energy and governmental energy programs, energy supply, CO2 emissions and scenarios for the year 2030, international agreements and mechanisms for climate change mitigation, sectors of Brazilian society that consume more energy and what are the sources they use, renewable energy technologies available and the climate damage caused by them in energy processes. The systemic epistemological view has based this thesis, since this method was suitable for the managing of the energy issue for the game of harmonization among natural resources, consumption and climate damage, based on the view of an ecossocioeconomia. The main results showed that it is possible to increase the share of less pollutant and renewable energy such as wind, solar, small hydropower plants and biomass in the Brazilian energy matrix and promote energy efficiency in order to increase the supply of energy, reducing the need of using natural energy resources and the consequent environmental impact. It was noted that governmental energy policies and programs contribute to encourage the use of renewable energy and to improve levels of air pollutants. It was concluded that, in order to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases from energy processes while guaranteeing the continuity of economic development, a set of measures is necessary, including: gradual replacement of fossil fuels in energy matrix by renewable sources, in association with energy efficiency, and integrated and viable governmental programs in political, economic, technological and socio-environmental terms. It was observed that there is an interplay of forces involving energy between socio-environmental and economic development and, therefore, at present and near future there is no way to rule out the use of totally non-renewable energy (thermoelectric power plants run by fossil fuels and nuclear energy, and fossil fuels for the transportation sector), considering the need to address the issue of energy safety. / 5000-11-25