Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory together with its applications is one of the most important studies in macroeconomics. Recently, Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott received Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. RBC is deeply affected by New Keynesian School (NKS). For example, Solow model emphasizes using CES of production function in RBC. Recently, New Keynesian Economics gives microeconomic foundations of incomplete competition, and explains macroeconomic fluctuations by prices and wages sticky. RBC and NKE were generalized into a new brake through model called DSGE. DSGE combines RBC and NKE to be a microeconomics foundation model. They consider household and firm optimal choice and integrate real and nominal shocks to let theory in macroeconomic to be close to the real world situation. This paper adopts DSGE model in Schmidt and Zimmermann (2005) into Taiwan. From 1981 to 2006, we discuss fluctuaction of macroeconomic variables in a small open economy by national oil price shocks between effect of oil price fluctutaion relationship. There are two main contributions: First, to review and put related Taiwan¡¦s literatures together which supply important calibration values. These sources provide prior information to finish foundations of this thesis. Second, this is the first thesis based on importance of price of imported oil in Taiwan. We split time-series data from 1981 to 1997 and 1998 to 2006. In the period from 1981 to 1997 the oil price shocks can explain 47% of the Taiwan business cycle fluctuations. In the second period, from 1998 to 2006, the oil price shocks can explain 69% of the Taiwan business cycle fluctuations. The main result is that the oil price shocks have more significant influence on the business cycle in Taiwan.

The primary purpose of this study is to explore whether changes in oil price are exogenous for small open economy and the significance of the financial variables in accordance with empirical results to discuss the role of monetary policies and implications. Considering the factors of monetary policy of the central banks with respect to the SVAR model, that tries to determine whether oil price shocks have disparaged effects on two small market economies, Taiwan and Korea, and trying to compare the difference and effects of their respective policies. In this paper, the empirical analysis, we found that the oil price shocks is a direct result of a major factor in decline in output, and while the impact of monetary policy effects on output is vague that coincide with Kim and Roubini (2000). In addition, Bernanke et al. (1997) analysis of the central bank encounter with the rise in oil prices in response to raise interest rates, the empirical results in this article: (1) policy implementation between the two countries have a significant impact on oil prices will be affected by the increase in oil prices which led to the implementation of central bank tightening of monetary policy , (2) central bank policy changes on behalf of the discount rate shocks, their impact on the real impact of the output is limited, (3) found that the central bank monetary policy to curb the effect of smaller price increases.

Chapter 1 ---Does the party of government influence the amount and type of inward foreign investment? The results of a number of correlational studies provide inconsistent evidence. However none of these studies - for any level of government or any jurisdiction - have used methods that allow them to speak to causal effects. Regression discontinuity (RD) method is applied to a set of narrow-margin US gubernatorial elections. Over the course of a four-year term the election of a Republican governor causes a 21% boost in the growth of manufacturing-oriented FDI stock, compared to a Democrat. This effect is robust to a series of challenges. However, the same approach provides no evidence that partisanship matters for the overall level of FDI. Chapter 2 ---Does an economic shock open a window of opportunity for reform, and if it does, how does the institution of a state play a role? The paper investigates how economic shocks affect the structural reforms in various institutions. This paper addresses this issue by using the exogenous variation in the international price of large commodity goods to generate the exogenous change in national income. The analysis relies on a unique mapping between new annual data from 1962 to 2005 on economic shocks from commodity prices and structural reforms in 111 countries. I find significant heterogeneous effects across sectors in autocratic countries. In autocracies, positive economic shocks promote reforms in real sectors, but deter reforms in financial sectors. However the impact of economic shocks on structural reform in democratic countries is nil. Chapter 3 ---The deregulation of branch banking across the United States substantially increased the availability of credit to existing borrowers and others who has previously been excluded. Exploiting the staggered timing of changes across states for identification it is estimated that deregulation caused a 3.3% increase in rates of suicide and a 4.7% increase in rates of divorce. This is consistent with a large body of evidence linking excess debt to various measures of individual and relationship distress. Results are in most cases statistically significant at levels much higher than 1%, and prove resilient in a battery of robustness checks and falsification exercises.

The thesis is focused on verifying the pro-cyclical relationship of sales of new passenger cars in the Czech Republic and Slovakia and the subsequent evaluation of the impact of macroeconomic variables in the period from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2015. In total, there are four different models estimated of multiple linear regressions of car sales, where for the Czech R. the estimation of different sectors of households and firms is available as well. By comparing the Czech R. and Slovakia regarding aggregate sales, fuel prices and gross domestic products are especially crucial and the pro-cyclical relationship is successfully verified. The economic crisis at the turn of 2008-2009 hit especially Slovakia, while the effect in the Czech R. was offset by a positive shock to fuel prices. For the model of households the procyclical relationship is denied unlike from the model of firms, shock to GDP therefore only deviate sales to firms. For Czech R. is also confirmed a significant relationship of the sales with interest rate or population growth.

This study examines the dynamic relationship between changes in oil prices and the economic policy uncertainty index for a sample of both net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries over the period 1997:01-2013:06. To achieve that, we extend the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) dynamic spillover index using structural decomposition. The results reveal that economic policy uncertainty (oil price shocks) responds negatively to aggregate demand oil price shocks (economic policy uncertainty shocks). Furthermore, during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, total spillovers increase considerably, reaching unprecedented heights. Moreover, in net terms, economic policy uncertainty becomes the dominant transmitter of shocks between 1997 and 2009, while in the post-2009 period there is a significant role for supply-side and oil specific demand shocks, as net transmitters of spillover effects. These results are important for policy makers, as well as, investors interested in the oil market. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This study examines the dynamic relationship between changes in oil prices and the economic policy uncertainty index for a sample of both net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries over the period 1997:01-2013:06. To achieve that, an extension of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) dynamic spillover index based on structural decomposition is employed. The results reveal that economic policy uncertainty (oil price shocks) responds negatively to aggregate demand oil price shocks (economic policy uncertainty shocks). Furthermore, during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, total spillovers increase considerably, reaching unprecedented heights. Moreover, in net terms, economic policy uncertainty becomes the dominant transmitter of shocks between 1997 and 2009, while in the post-2009 period there is a significant role for supply-side and oil specific demand shocks, as net transmitters of spillover effects. These results are important for policy makers, as well as, investors interested in the oil market. (authors' abstract)

The nature of food insecurity has been changing in the world. While research on food insecurity in developing countries used to focus on undernourishment (i.e. lack of calorie consumption) and related outcomes, today, many developing countries face at least a “double burden of malnutrition” with persistently high rates of undernourishment and increasing rates of overweight, obesity and related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). An important driver of overweight and obesity in developing countries is the „nutrition transition“, i.e. the trend towards the consumption of more energy-dense, highly processed foods and more sedentary lifestyles. Two essays of this Ph.D. thesis analyse drivers and consequences of the nutrition transition in developing countries with a particular focus on the role of supermarkets, which have been rapidly spreading in many countries. We provide evidence that the presence of supermarkets causally affects dietary choices and nutritional outcomes. Data collection for this research was carried out in small Kenyan towns of the kind that accommodate most of the country’s urban population. We designed our sample to be quasi-experimental in nature and employ instrumental variable techniques to allow for endogeneity of supermarket purchases. Kenya’s supermarket landscape is dynamic and so far, it has followed the ‘traditional pattern’ of the so-called supermarket revolution. Supermarket purchases are found to contribute to the nutrition transition by shifting consumption towards processed and away from unprocessed foods. At the same time, calorie availability increases as calories are sourced at lower prices in supermarkets. We find that supermarket purchases increase adult Body Mass Index and their probability of being overweight or obese. Yet, we also find that buying in a supermarket tends to decrease underweight among children and adolescents (age 5-19) in terms of stunting (height-for-age). In a third essay, we use secondary household survey data from Malawi to analyse ‘one of the other faces of malnutrition’. The world food price crisis of 2007/08 and other global and regional price and income shocks that followed have spurred interest in producing timely predictions on their implications for food security. A critical research gap remains with comparing simulation outcomes across studies that use different, established methods on the same subject. This is to establish if and to which extent they might result in different and potentially conflicting policy recommendations. We address this gap building on three simulation studies set in Malawi, which analyse welfare in terms of food security and income effects using the same 2004/05 household survey data but resort to methodologies of different complexity. We harmonize simulation scenarios across methods and systematically modify relevant parameters for our comparative assessment. We find differences between methods to depend on the scenario under consideration and to grow with increasing rates of simulated price changes. The differences we find are driven by differences in conceptualising price changes. In case of Malawi, for a reasonable set of observed price changes, mean outcomes on district levels are fairly robust to underlying methodologies. We illustrate that is it important to improve our understanding of how changes in the underlying methodologies change results and to analyse the sensitivity of simulation outcomes to different model assumptions.

In 2022, food prices increased rapidly, prompting this investigation into how the price shock has impacted consumer behavior. Previous studies have found that price shocks affect low- income households with children the most. A switch to more calorie-dense food and a decreased consumption of snacks. This study aims to estimate the price elasticity of various food products and to identify how the elasticities differ among various types of households. The elasticities are calculated using OLS regression on receipt data from Coop. Results show that household variables, including income level, presence of children, shopping location, and organic product preferences, significantly impact the price elasticity of food products. Low-income households without children, living outside major cities and their suburbs, have a higher price elasticity, meaning these shoppers are more sensitive to price changes. The same tendencies were observed for all products even though the exact parameters could only be proven for a third of the products. The findings have important implications for understanding how price changes affect consumer behavior and can inform food policy decisions. / Under 2022 ökade livsmedelspriserna kraftigt, vilket inspirerade denna undersökning av hur prischocken har påverkat konsumenternas beteende. Tidigare studier visar att prischocker har störst påverkan på låginkomsthushåll med barn. Även en övergång till mer kaloririk mat och en minskad konsumption av snacks har observerats. Syftet med denna studie är att uppskatta priselasticiteten för olika livsmedel och identifiera hur elasticiteten skiljer sig åt mellan olika typer av hushåll. Elasticiteterna beräknas med hjälp av en OLS-regression på kvittodata från Coop. Resultaten visar att hushållsvariabler, inklusive inkomstnivå, barn i hushållet, varans inköpsplats och val av ekologiska produkter, påverkar priselasticiteten för livsmedel markant. Hushåll med låg inkomst utan barn, som bor utanför större städer och deras förorter, har en högre priselasticitet, vilket innebär att dessa kunder är mer priskänsliga. Samma tendenser observerades för alla produkter även om de exakta parametrarna endast kunde bevisas för en tredjedel av produkterna. Resultaten har viktiga implikationer för förståelsen av hur prisförändringar påverkar konsumentbeteenden och kan även informera livsmedelspolitiska beslut.