This study identifies the factors influencing adoption of IPM practices and number of pesticide applications in vegetable farmers in Kenya. The sample size for this study includes 263 vegetable farmers. The survey was conducted in four counties of Kenya: Nyeri, Tharka Nithi, Nakuru and Bomet. The vegetables considered in this study are tomato, cabbage and French beans. Different econometric tools are used to analyze adoption of IPM practices and pesticide application for vegetables. It is found that experience in vegetable cultivation and number of livestock owned have a positive impact on the adoption of IPM practices. However, distance to the nearest town has a negative impact on adoption. Moreover, the number of times pesticides are applied to vegetables also declines as distance of the household from the nearest town increases. Farmers whose crops face less stress from insects and disease tend to apply pesticides fewer times as well. Results from this study indicate that being close to town is important for agricultural activities in general. Being farther away not only reduces the probability of IPM adoption but also reduces pesticide application. / Master of Science / This study identifies the factors influencing adoption of IPM practices and number of pesticide applications in vegetable farmers in Kenya. The sample size for this study includes 263 vegetable farmers. The survey was conducted in four counties of Kenya: Nyeri, Tharka Nithi, Nakuru and Bomet. The vegetables considered in this study are tomato, cabbage and French beans. Different econometric tools are used to analyze adoption of IPM practices and pesticide application for vegetables. It is found that experience in vegetable cultivation and number of livestock owned have a positive impact on the adoption of IPM practices. However, distance to the nearest town has a negative impact on adoption. Moreover, the number of times pesticides are applied to vegetables also declines as distance of the household from the nearest town increases. Farmers whose crops face less stress from insects and disease tend to apply pesticides fewer times as well. Results from this study indicate that being close to town is important for agricultural activities in general. Being farther away not only reduces the probability of IPM adoption but also reduces pesticide application.

As importantes mudanças macroeconômicas e a abertura comercial ocorridas na década de 90 tiveram como uma de suas conseqüências a reversão dos superávits comerciais. Esse fato gerou uma série de análises sobre a composição das importações e exportações das firmas brasileiras. Com a abertura comercial, as empresas passaram a investir na racionalização de processos produtivos e gerenciais para se tornarem competitivas. A desvalorização da taxa de câmbio, no final da década de 90, implicou no aumento significativo da parcela exportada pela indústria brasileira e mudanças ocorreram na estratégia competitiva da indústria. A análise destas diferenças e do caminho percorrido por elas contribuem para um melhor mapeamento e discussão das condições competitivas da indústria no mercado internacional. Diante desse contexto, o objetivo do presente trabalho é identificar os principais determinantes da atividade exportadora de indústrias paulistas. Para alcançar o objetivo proposto, utilizou-se dados referentes aos anos de 1996 e 2001 de indústrias paulistas, disponíveis na Pesquisa da Atividade Econômica Paulista (PAEP), realizada pela Fundação Estadual de Análise de Dados (SEADE). Os dois períodos de análise apresentam características distintas no que se refere ao contexto econômico, o que pode ter acarretado na adoção de estratégias competitivas diferentes pelas empresas. Para a estimação dos parâmetros das variáveis explicativas adotou-se os métodos Probit e Logit. Os resultados da pesquisa permitiram identificar o tamanho da empresa, participação estrangeira no capital, idade, importação e inovação tecnológica como determinantes da atividade exportadora das indústrias paulistas. A produtividade do trabalho e a qualificação do trabalho apresentaram resultados distintos para os anos de 1996 e 2001. / Major macroeconomic changes and trade liberalization occurred in the 90s had as one of their consequences the reversal of trade surpluses. This has raised a number of reviews on the composition of imports and exports of Brazilian firms. With the trade liberalization, companies started to invest in the rationalization of production processes and management in order to become competitive. The devaluation of the exchange rate in the end of the 90s, resulted in significant increase in the share exported by the Brazilian industry and changes occurred in the competitive strategy of the industry. The analysis of these differences contributes to a better mapping and discussion of competitive conditions in the industry internationally. In this context, the objective of this study is to identify the main determinants of export activity of Paulistas industries. To achieve the proposed objective, we used data for the years 1996 and 2001 from Paulistas industries, available on the Pesquisa da Atividade Econômica Paulista (PAEP) held by the Fundação Estadual de Análise de Dados (SEADE). These periods have different characteristics with regard to the economic context, which may have led to the adoption of different competitive strategies by companies. For the estimation of the explanatory variables we adopted the methods Probit and Logit. The research results have identified the company size, foreign ownership, age, import and technological innovation as determinants of export activity of the Paulistas industries. The labor productivity and skilled labor showed different results for the years 1996 and 2001.

As importantes mudanças macroeconômicas e a abertura comercial ocorridas na década de 90 tiveram como uma de suas conseqüências a reversão dos superávits comerciais. Esse fato gerou uma série de análises sobre a composição das importações e exportações das firmas brasileiras. Com a abertura comercial, as empresas passaram a investir na racionalização de processos produtivos e gerenciais para se tornarem competitivas. A desvalorização da taxa de câmbio, no final da década de 90, implicou no aumento significativo da parcela exportada pela indústria brasileira e mudanças ocorreram na estratégia competitiva da indústria. A análise destas diferenças e do caminho percorrido por elas contribuem para um melhor mapeamento e discussão das condições competitivas da indústria no mercado internacional. Diante desse contexto, o objetivo do presente trabalho é identificar os principais determinantes da atividade exportadora de indústrias paulistas. Para alcançar o objetivo proposto, utilizou-se dados referentes aos anos de 1996 e 2001 de indústrias paulistas, disponíveis na Pesquisa da Atividade Econômica Paulista (PAEP), realizada pela Fundação Estadual de Análise de Dados (SEADE). Os dois períodos de análise apresentam características distintas no que se refere ao contexto econômico, o que pode ter acarretado na adoção de estratégias competitivas diferentes pelas empresas. Para a estimação dos parâmetros das variáveis explicativas adotou-se os métodos Probit e Logit. Os resultados da pesquisa permitiram identificar o tamanho da empresa, participação estrangeira no capital, idade, importação e inovação tecnológica como determinantes da atividade exportadora das indústrias paulistas. A produtividade do trabalho e a qualificação do trabalho apresentaram resultados distintos para os anos de 1996 e 2001. / Major macroeconomic changes and trade liberalization occurred in the 90s had as one of their consequences the reversal of trade surpluses. This has raised a number of reviews on the composition of imports and exports of Brazilian firms. With the trade liberalization, companies started to invest in the rationalization of production processes and management in order to become competitive. The devaluation of the exchange rate in the end of the 90s, resulted in significant increase in the share exported by the Brazilian industry and changes occurred in the competitive strategy of the industry. The analysis of these differences contributes to a better mapping and discussion of competitive conditions in the industry internationally. In this context, the objective of this study is to identify the main determinants of export activity of Paulistas industries. To achieve the proposed objective, we used data for the years 1996 and 2001 from Paulistas industries, available on the Pesquisa da Atividade Econômica Paulista (PAEP) held by the Fundação Estadual de Análise de Dados (SEADE). These periods have different characteristics with regard to the economic context, which may have led to the adoption of different competitive strategies by companies. For the estimation of the explanatory variables we adopted the methods Probit and Logit. The research results have identified the company size, foreign ownership, age, import and technological innovation as determinants of export activity of the Paulistas industries. The labor productivity and skilled labor showed different results for the years 1996 and 2001.

<p>Betting under ordered forms has been around for a long time, but the recent increase in Internet betting and the large sums of money that are now involved makes it even more important for betting companies to have correct odds.</p><p> </p><p>The purpose of the essay is to calculate probabilities for outcomes of football games using a statistical model and to see if you can find better odds than a betting company.</p><p>The data contains the 380 games from the 2004/2005 season and the variables form, head-to-heads, league position, points, home/away, average attendance, promoted team, distance and final league position from previous season.</p><p> </p><p>After performing an ordered probit regression we only find the variable “form of the away team” to be significant at the 5 % level. We suspect the presence of multicollinearity and perform a VIF-test which confirms this. To fix this problem we perform a second ordered probit regression where a number of variables are combined to index variables. In the second regression we once again find only one significant variable. This time it is the variable “difference between home and away teams’ final league position”. A reason for the lack of significant variables could be the size of the data. A new model with five variables is examined and it results in four significant variables.</p><p> </p><p>The calculated odds pick the correct result in 200, 203 and 198 out of 380 games respectively, compared to 197 out of 380 for Unibet. Betting one krona on the lowest calculated odds from the second model will result in a positive yield for season 2004/2005 when using Unibet’s odds.</p> / <p>Vadslagning under ordnade former har funnits under en längre tid, men de senaste årens explosionsartade ökning av Internetspel och de stora summor som då omsätts har gjort det allt viktigare för spelbolagen att sätta korrekta odds.</p><p> </p><p>Syftet med uppsatsen är att med hjälp av en statistisk modell räkna ut sannolikheter för utfall i fotbollsmatcher och att undersöka om man kan hitta bättre odds än ett spelbolag.</p><p>Datamaterialet innefattar de 380 matcherna som spelades säsongen 2004/2005 samt de oberoende variablerna form, inbördes möten, tabellplacering, poängskörd, hemmaplan/bortaplan, publiksnitt, uppflyttat lag, avstånd och slutplacering.</p><p> </p><p>Efter utförd ordered probit regression erhåller vi endast en signifikant variabel vid en signifikansnivå på 5 %, nämligen ”bortalagets form”. Vi misstänker att det kan förekomma multikollinearitet och utför därför ett VIF-test som bekräftar detta. För att råda bot på detta problem genomför vi en andra ordered probit regression där flera variabler slås ihop till indexvariabler. I den andra regressionen får vi åter igen en enda signifikant variabel, men i detta fall är det variabeln ”differensen mellan hemma- och bortalagets slutplaceringar”. Ett skäl till att det inte blir fler signifikanta variabler misstänks vara storleken på datamaterialet. En ny modell med fem variabler undersöks och då blir fyra variabler signifikanta.</p><p> </p><p>De beräknade oddsen väljer rätt utfall i 200, 203 respektive 198 av 380 matcher för de tre modellerna mot Unibets 197 av 380 matcher. I modell 2 ger en spelad krona på utfallet med lägst beräknat odds positiv avkastning under säsongen vid spel hos Unibet.</p>

Betting under ordered forms has been around for a long time, but the recent increase in Internet betting and the large sums of money that are now involved makes it even more important for betting companies to have correct odds.   The purpose of the essay is to calculate probabilities for outcomes of football games using a statistical model and to see if you can find better odds than a betting company. The data contains the 380 games from the 2004/2005 season and the variables form, head-to-heads, league position, points, home/away, average attendance, promoted team, distance and final league position from previous season.   After performing an ordered probit regression we only find the variable “form of the away team” to be significant at the 5 % level. We suspect the presence of multicollinearity and perform a VIF-test which confirms this. To fix this problem we perform a second ordered probit regression where a number of variables are combined to index variables. In the second regression we once again find only one significant variable. This time it is the variable “difference between home and away teams’ final league position”. A reason for the lack of significant variables could be the size of the data. A new model with five variables is examined and it results in four significant variables.   The calculated odds pick the correct result in 200, 203 and 198 out of 380 games respectively, compared to 197 out of 380 for Unibet. Betting one krona on the lowest calculated odds from the second model will result in a positive yield for season 2004/2005 when using Unibet’s odds. / Vadslagning under ordnade former har funnits under en längre tid, men de senaste årens explosionsartade ökning av Internetspel och de stora summor som då omsätts har gjort det allt viktigare för spelbolagen att sätta korrekta odds.   Syftet med uppsatsen är att med hjälp av en statistisk modell räkna ut sannolikheter för utfall i fotbollsmatcher och att undersöka om man kan hitta bättre odds än ett spelbolag. Datamaterialet innefattar de 380 matcherna som spelades säsongen 2004/2005 samt de oberoende variablerna form, inbördes möten, tabellplacering, poängskörd, hemmaplan/bortaplan, publiksnitt, uppflyttat lag, avstånd och slutplacering.   Efter utförd ordered probit regression erhåller vi endast en signifikant variabel vid en signifikansnivå på 5 %, nämligen ”bortalagets form”. Vi misstänker att det kan förekomma multikollinearitet och utför därför ett VIF-test som bekräftar detta. För att råda bot på detta problem genomför vi en andra ordered probit regression där flera variabler slås ihop till indexvariabler. I den andra regressionen får vi åter igen en enda signifikant variabel, men i detta fall är det variabeln ”differensen mellan hemma- och bortalagets slutplaceringar”. Ett skäl till att det inte blir fler signifikanta variabler misstänks vara storleken på datamaterialet. En ny modell med fem variabler undersöks och då blir fyra variabler signifikanta.   De beräknade oddsen väljer rätt utfall i 200, 203 respektive 198 av 380 matcher för de tre modellerna mot Unibets 197 av 380 matcher. I modell 2 ger en spelad krona på utfallet med lägst beräknat odds positiv avkastning under säsongen vid spel hos Unibet.

臺灣和日本都面臨嚴重的高齡化問題，對於高齡化所導致的勞動力減少，最好的因應方式便是提升高齡者的勞動參與率，而日本的高齡者具有世界最高的勞動參與率，本研究藉由比較日本與臺灣的高齡者就業的影響因素，提出促進高齡者就業的方法，發現影響高齡者就業的因素可分為個人特質、經濟因素及家庭因素等。而日本樣本中本人外家庭收入和工作與否有顯著的正相關，而與子女同住及子女親族的奉養金則對高齡者就業的影響不顯著，相對於日本，子女對於臺灣高齡者就業有著顯著的影響，有子女奉養金的高齡者，就業的機會顯著的降低，若想提高高齡者就業，可以完善老人年金制度，讓臺灣的高齡者較不需依靠子女奉養，然而這卻也有可能因為財富效果反而造成就業率降低，最好的方法，無非是宣導高齡者就業的必要，改善社會對高齡者就業的偏見，並提供適宜高齡者就業的環境，如彈性的工時，輕鬆的工作等，並消除企業對年齡的歧視，如此才能活用高齡者的知識經驗，提高高齡者的就業率。

Diss. Wirtschaftswiss. Zürich (kein Austausch). / Literaturverz.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:34:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MonicaSC_DISSERT.pdf: 1356683 bytes, checksum: 4eabce00854d70fbe6fef979375553c4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-11-19 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / This study aims to the evaluate the determinants for rural households northeastern be pluriactive, in 2011. For this, at first, we conducted a review of national and international literature in order to get beyond the theoretical part which refers to the study of pluriactivity identify possible determinants of the phenomenon. In this rescue, it was the observed determinants could be macroeconomic in nature and / or microeconomics. Therefore, it became necessary to describe the characteristics of the region under study, the Northeast. In order to identify the determinants were two estimated Probit models, one based on the literature review and the second with a variable characteristic of the Northeast, the transfers. For this, we used the PNAD in 2011. The results indicate both the microeconomic determinants are : gender, race, age, years of education, hours worked, number of family members, per capita income, transfer the macroeconomic in nature: living conditions (water, energy, sanitation ), housing location. In addition to identifying the determinants, the Econometric model allows to know the probability of each variable on the dependent variable, which stood out: the transfer variable, gender, per capita income, number of family members, housing conditions and housing location. Therefore, it is concluded that it is the set of determinants (macro and micro) allow rural families become northeastern pluriactive. However, one can not fail to consider may also have other determinants were not captured due to the availability of data, which may be indications for future studies. In summary, the pluriactivity in the Brazilian Northeast is a phenomenon distinct from found in Europe and southern Brazil. It is a pluriactivity survival that is part of the strategies of rural households in the Northeast to ensure their social reproduction amid the poverty of the region / Este estudo prop?e avaliar quais os determinantes para as fam?lias rurais nordestinas serem pluriativas, no ano de 2011. Para isso, no primeiro momento, foi realizada uma revis?o de literatura nacional e internacional com objetivo de obter, al?m da parte te?rica que se refere ao estudo da pluriatividade, identificar os poss?veis determinantes do fen?meno. Neste resgate, observou-se que os determinantes poderiam ser de natureza macroecon?mica e/ou de microecon?mica. Por isso, tornou-se necess?rio descrever as caracter?sticas da Regi?o objeto do estudo, a nordestina. Com o intuito de identificar os determinantes, foram estimados dois modelos Probit, um com base na literatura revisada e o segundo com uma vari?vel caracter?stica da regi?o nordestina, as transfer?ncias. Para tanto, foram utilizados os microdados da PNAD no ano de 2011. Os resultados indicam que os determinantes s?o tanto de natureza microecon?mica: sexo, ra?a, idade, anos de estudo, horas trabalhadas, n?mero de membros da fam?lia, renda per capita familiar, transfer?ncia, quanto de natureza macroecon?mica: condi??es de moradia (?gua, energia, saneamento), local de moradia. Al?m de identificar os determinantes, o modelo econom?trico permite saber a probabilidade de cada vari?vel sobre a vari?vel dependente, na qual destacou-se: a vari?vel transfer?ncia, sexo, renda per capita familiar, n?mero de membros da fam?lia, as condi??es de moradia e o local de moradia. Portanto, conclu?-se que ? o conjunto dos determinantes (macro e micro) que permitem ?s fam?lias rurais nordestinas se tornarem pluriativas. No entanto, n?o se pode deixar de considerar que tamb?m pode haver outros determinantes que n?o foram captados, devido ? disponibilidade dos dados, que poder?o ser indica??es para estudos futuros. Em s?ntese, a pluriatividade no Nordeste brasileiro ? um fen?meno distinto daquele encontrado na Europa e no Sul do Brasil. ? uma pluriatividade de sobreviv?ncia que faz parte das estrat?gias das fam?lias rurais nordestinas, para garantir a sua reprodu??o social em meio ?s condi??es de pobreza da regi?o

nÃo hà / At first, a brief discussion on monetary economy and the regimen of target for inflation in Brazil will be performed. This latter has been an important step towards stabilization in our country, as there was an annual average of inflation about 842% within a period immediately before the adoption of the target. Besides influencing in a positive manner the Central Bank of Brazilâs credibility, it is possible to notice an augmented inclusion in this regimen on the part of many countries since 1990, when it had its start in New Zealand. The conferences held by the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) will also be taken into consideration, for it has been responsible for the establishment of the target regarding interest rates (SELIC), which is the main tool related to monetary policy assumed by the Central Bank of Brazil in order to maintain inflation inside of the levels proposed by the National Monetary Council (CMN), so as to identify which variables can interfere in and affect the decisions made by such committee. / Inicialmente, fazemos uma breve discussÃo sobre economia monetÃria e o regime de metas de inflaÃÃo no Brasil, que foi um importante passo para a estabilizaÃÃo da inflaÃÃo no paÃs, jà que se teve uma mÃdia anual de inflaÃÃo de 842% num perÃodo imediatamente antes da adoÃÃo das metas. AlÃm de afetar positivamente a credibilidade do Banco Central. Nota-se tambÃm uma adesÃo crescente de diversos paÃses a esse regime desde 1990, quando teve inÃcio na Nova ZelÃndia. TambÃm analisamos as reuniÃes do Comità de PolÃtica MonetÃria (COPOM), responsÃvel pela fixaÃÃo da meta da taxa de juros (Selic), que à o principal instrumento de polÃtica monetÃria utilizada pelo Banco Central do Brasil para manter a inflaÃÃo dentro dos nÃveis estabelecidos pelo Conselho MonetÃrio Nacional (CMN), identificando quais sÃo as variÃveis que podem influenciar e afetar as decisÃes deste comitÃ. Neste artigo, usamos a abordagem estatÃstica para dados de alta freqÃÃncia desenvolvida por Hamilton e Jordà (2002) para a economia brasileira, pretendendo modelar e prever a decisÃo da taxa de juros (Selic) do Banco Central. De acordo com os principais resultados, a taxa de Hazard obtida parece inferir que o Banco Central muda a taxa Selic com uma probabilidade condicional de 36%. VariÃveis como o desvio entre a inflaÃÃo observada e a meta, e a diferenÃa entre o Produto Interno Bruto e o produto potencial parecem ser mais significantemente relevantes em explicar a duraÃÃo e os marks para a mudanÃa do alvo, corroborando com os resultados em Portugal (2008). Somos tambÃm capazes de prever razoavelmente a taxa Selic na amostra."

nÃo hà / The general objective of this work is to analyze the productive potential of the castor oil in the state of Cearà from a technical, social and economic approach. To obtaining the results, the research followed the following steps: initially, a study took place to tabulate and describe primary data collected through the application of 118 questionnaires to the growers and 120 to the not growers of the castor oil plant in the districts of Boa Viagem, CanindÃ, Itatira, Pedra Branca, QuixadÃ, Quixeramobim, QuiterianÃplois and TauÃ. Secondly, a binary probit regression was made to verify whether the farmer is a castor oil plant grower or not. Thirdly, a multiple lineal regression of the equation of castor oil plant offer in the State of Cearà was made concerning the period from 1980 to 2007 and this was possible due to secondary data collected in IBGE and IPECE. The analysis of the data allowed to identify the profile of the growers of castor oil plant and of the techniques used in the production. Thus, one can conclude that the farmer's propensity to plant castor oil plant is being influenced by the area, agricultural income, family total income, financing, participation in association and in the credibility of the program. Finally, it was verified that the castor oil plant offer is strongly related with the planted area and with its own price, being necessary investments in technologies and fairer prices. / Este trabalho tem como objetivo geral analisar o potencial produtivo da mamona no estado do Cearà a partir de uma abordagem tÃcnica e socioeconÃmica. Para a obtenÃÃo dos resultados, a pesquisa seguiu as seguintes etapas: inicialmente realizou-se um estudo tabular e descritivo de dados primÃrios coletados atravÃs da aplicaÃÃo de 118 questionÃrios aos produtores e 120 para os nÃo produtores de mamona dos municÃpios de Boa Viagem, CanindÃ, Itatira, Pedra Branca, QuixadÃ, Quixeramobim, QuiterianÃplois e TauÃ. Na segunda parte do estudo, foi realizada uma regressÃo binÃria probit, sobre a chance de o agricultor plantar mamona e, por Ãltimo, realizou-se uma regressÃo linear multipla da equaÃÃo de oferta de mamona no Estado do Cearà no perÃodo de 1980 a 2007, usando dados secundÃrios coletados no IBGE e IPECE. A anÃlise dos dados permitiu identificar o perfil dos produtores de mamona e das tÃcnicas usadas na produÃÃo. Conclui-se entÃo, que a propensÃo do agricultor a plantar mamona està sendo influenciada pela Ãrea, renda agrÃcola, renda total, financiamento, participaÃÃo em associaÃÃo e na credibilidade do programa. Por fim, identificou-se que a oferta de mamona està fortemente relacionada com a Ãrea plantada e com o seu prÃprio preÃo, fazendo-se necessÃrios investimentos em tecnologias e preÃos mais justos.