The term procyclicality refers to the ability of a system to amplify business cycles. The recent financial crisis has revealed that the current regulatory framework, Basel II, affects the business cycle in exactly that manner. The newly published Basel III therefore sought to include tools that would mitigate the procyclical nature of regulatory framework. The aim of the thesis is to analyze whether such tools are effective and whether the procyclicality under Basel III has been mitigated when compared to Basel II. In order to conduct such analysis we employ a simple model with the households and firms sector. Using the OLS estimation method we estimate the sensitivity of Basel risk weights to the business cycle under both Basel II and Basel III conditions. As the Basel III framework has been published only recently, there are few studies that would analyze its effect on procyclicality. The main contribution of this thesis consists of implementation of Basel III countercyclical tools and the comparison between both frameworks. The thesis further contributes to the existing literature by conducting the analysis on the data for the Visegrád Group, that is for the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. JEL Classification E32, E44, E58, G21 Keywords procyclicality, Basel II, Basel III, banking...

The banking sector plays a pivotal role in the economy in which it operates. It is therefore imperative to institute international regulatory bodies and regulations which will ensure the protection of all stakeholders in the sector. The adoption and implementation of the Basel Accords and their revised versions has been encouraged at The World Bank level, but the opinions and studies regarding the impact of the tightened regulations on the banking sector generated varied reactions. The objective of this research was to establish whether the increased capital requirements regulations, as guided by The Basel Accords, had negatively impacted the bank domestic lending of the countries which implemented the regulations by 2012. This quantitative research involved comparison of the domestic lending rates as a percentage of GDP of the countries which implemented Basel II for the years before, and after the implementation. The study has revealed that, despite the concerns that the increased capital requirements regulations would increase the lending costs, the implementation of these regulations did not negatively affect domestic lending from the banking sector. This research document concludes by recommending a few process guidelines which the global banking regulators might consider during the implementation of Basel III. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / ccgibs2014 / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / MBA / Unrestricted

The aim of this paper is to investigate the procyclical behavior of banks in terms of lending and loan loss provisioning, and its dynamics with regard to the adoption of the Basel II capital regulation. Using bank-level and country-level panel data spanning from 1996 to 2013 we answer this question for the OECD and BRIC countries. We find a positive effect of bank capitalization on loans growth, which, perhaps due to the recent financial crisis, weakened after 2008. Together with evidence of income smoothing and capital management we also find strong cyclical behavior of banks in terms of loan loss provisioning. At the same time, we do not find any robust changes to this behavior after the introduction of the Basel II capital regulation. We fill a gap in the empirical literature as there has been hardly any research done on changes brought forward by the adoption of the Basel II capital regulation. The results may be therefore of interest for regulators and other professionals. Moreover, we use in our analysis data for BRIC countries, which have been often neglected.

The recent global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the subsequent recession have prompted renewed interest into how banking regulation and fluctuations in the financial sector impact the business cycle. Using three different model setups, this thesis promotes a further understanding and identification of the various transmission channels through which regulatory changes and volatility in the financial system link to the real economy. Chapter 1 examines the effects of bank capital requirements in a simple macroeconomic model with credit market frictions. A bank capital channel is introduced through a monitoring incentive effect of bank capital buffers on the repayment probability, which affects the loan rate behaviour via the risk premium. We also identify a collateral channel, which mitigates moral hazard behaviour by firms, and therefore raises their repayment probability. Basel I and Basel II regulatory regimes are then defined, with a distinction made between the Standardized and Foundation Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approaches of Basel II. We analyse the role of the bank capital and collateral channels in the transmission of supply shocks, and show that depending on the strength of these channels, the loan rate can either amplify or mitigate the effects of productivity shocks. Finally, the impact of the two channels also determines which of the regulatory regimes is most procyclical. Chapter 2 studies the interactions between bank capital regulation and the real business cycle in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework with financial frictions, along with endogenous risk of default at the firm and bank capital levels. We show that in a model which accounts for bank capital risk and regulatory requirements, the endogenous risk of default produces an accelerator effect and impacts the loan rate and the real economy through multiple channels. Furthermore, the simulations illustrate that a risk sensitive regulatory regime (Basel II) amplifies the response of macroeconomic and financial variables following supply, monetary and financial shocks, with the strength of the key transmission channels depending on the nature of the shock. The impact of higher regulatory requirements (as proposed under Basel III) is also examined and is shown to increase procyclicality in the financial system and real economy. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between loan loss provisions and business cycle fluctuations in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with credit market imperfections. With a backward-looking provisioning system, provisions are triggered by past due payments (or nonperforming loans), which, in turn, depend on current economic conditions and the loan loss reserves-loan ratio. With a forward-looking system, both past due payments and expected losses over the whole business cycle are accounted for, and provisions are smoothed over the cycle. Numerical experiments based on a parameterized version of the model show that holding more provisions can reduce the procyclicality of the financial system. However, a forward-looking provisioning regime can increase or lower procyclicality, depending on whether holding more loan loss reserves translates into a higher or lower fraction of nonperforming loans.

Cette thèse se compose de trois articles qui s’insèrent dans une même problématique sur les interrelations entre les secteurs financier et réel en Corée du sud. Notre analyse empirique a vérifié le bon fonctionnement de certains composants du mécanisme de transmission entre les secteurs financier et réel. Tout d'abord, nous avons constaté que le canal du crédit bancaire a fonctionné comme l'un des canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire (Chapitre1). Ensuite, nous avons vérifié empiriquement que la capitalisation des banques est un facteur important dans la transmission des chocs de politique monétaire (Chapitre2). Enfin, notre analyse sur l’interaction entre le prix de l’immobilier et le crédit bancaire a montré qu’il existait une relation à long terme entre les prix de l'immobilier et les prêts bancaires (Chapitre 3). Comme vérifié empiriquement dans notre analyse, le secteur financier et le secteur réel sont étroitement liés par le choc financier ou réel. Les résultats mettent en valeur les points suivants vis-à-vis des politiques monétaires et de supervision. Premièrement, il est important que la politique monétaire prenne en compte la régulation du capital et son effet sur l’économie. Deuxièmement, en prenant en compte le fait que le prêt hypothécaire est très étroitement lié à la conjoncture économique en Corée, l’instrument de la politique macroprudentielle pour réduire la procyclicité est nécessaire. La banque centrale et l’autorité prudentielle peuvent collaborer à développer ces instruments. / This thesis consists of three Articles that fit into the same issue on the interrelationships between the financial and real sectors in South Korea. Our empirical analysis has verified the correct functioning of certain components of the transmission mechanism between the financial and real sectors. Firstly, we found that the bank lending channel has functioned as one of the transmission channels of monetary policy (Chapter 1). Then, we verified empirically that the capitalization of banks is an important factor in the transmission of monetary policy shocks (Chapter 2). Finally, our analysis of the interaction between property prices and bank lending has shown that there is a long-term relationship between property prices and bank lending (Chapter 3). As empirically verified in our analysis, the financial sector and the real sector are closely linked through shocks, either financial or real. The results highlight the following points vis-à-vis the monetary policy and macroprudential policy. First, it is important that monetary policy takes into account the capital regulation and its effect on the economy. Second, taking into account the fact that the mortgage is very closely linked to the economic situation in Korea, macroprudential policy instruments is required to reduce procyclicality. The central bank and the supervisory authority can collaborate to develop these instruments.

Une des questions fondamentales en économie est celle du rôle que devraient jouer les autorités publiques pour mitiger les fluctuations de l’activité économique. Cette thèse, organisée en trois chapitres, analyse comment les politiques économiques peuvent être caractérisées à travers différentes structures économiques et au cours du cycle économique. En particulier, la première partie de la thèse se concentre sur la politique budgétaire et analyse comment les différentes caractéristiques structurelles des pays affectent l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire. La deuxième partie analyse la conduite de la politique monétaire dans des pays en régime de ciblage d’inflation et la manière dont celle-ci a été affectée par l’expansionnisme monétaire sans précédent des économies avancées depuis la crise financière et économique globale. Le chapitre met en évidence le rôle des facteurs domestiques et externes qui affectent les décisions de politique monétaire dans les pays émergents. Etant donné que les politiques budgétaire et monétaire sont les outils les plus importants disponibles pour les autorités publiques pour la gestion de la politique macroéconomique, le troisième chapitre de la thèse analyse les bases théoriques qui soutiennent l’utilisation de ces politiques de manière contra-cyclique, et étudie comment, dans la pratique, ces politiques ont répondu aux fluctuations économiques en Amérique Latine au cours des deux dernières décennies. En particulier le chapitre analyse dans quelle mesure les politiques budgétaire et monétaire renforcent ou contrebalancent les fluctuations économiques, c’est-à-dire dans quelle mesure elles sont pro-cycliques ou contra-cycliques, et discute le rôle des institutions économiques. / One of the most fundamental questions in economics is what should be the role of economic authorities in addressing fluctuations in economic activity. This dissertation, organized in three chapters, analyses how economic policies can be characterized across economic structures and along the business cycle. In particular, the first part of the dissertation focuses on fiscal policy and addresses the question of how different structural characteristics across countries affect the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The second part analyses the conduct of monetary policy in inflation targeting countries and how it has been affected by the unprecedented expansionary monetary policies implemented by advanced economies since the recent global financial and economic crisis. The chapter highlights the role of domestic and external factors affecting the determination of monetary policy. Given that fiscal and monetary policies are the two most important tools available for policymakers in terms of macroeconomic management, the third chapter of the dissertation analyses the theoretical grounds for these policies to be used in a countercyclical manner, and studies how in practice these policies have responded to economic fluctuations in Latin America over the last two decades. In particular the chapter analyses the degree to which fiscal and monetary policies reinforce or counterbalance fluctuations in economic activity, i.e. whether these policies have been procyclical or countercyclical, and discusses the role of economic institutions.

La réflexion sur l‟utilisation de la politique budgétaire comme outil de stabilisation et de relance connaît un net regain d‟intérêt ces dernières années. Après près de trois décennies qui ont vu la dominance des idées néo-Classique, la récente crise financière des années 2008 a consacré le retour aux idées keynésiennes sur l‟efficacité de l‟outil budgétaire. Cette thèse s‟intéresse à ce thème et essaie de caractériser la politique budgétaire dans le contexte des pays en développement et son objectif final est de préciser dans quelle mesure cet outil de politique économique serait efficace pour ces pays. Le chapitre 2 traite de la question des effets des politiques budgétaires surprises. Autrement dit, et à partir d‟une modélisation en VAR structurels, cette partie se pose la question de savoir si le budget peut être utilisé de façon surprise pour relancer une économie et quels sont les défis que pose une telle mesure dans le contexte d‟une économie en développement. Le troisième chapitre à partir d‟un modèle de gravité analyse les relations entre la situation budgétaire dans les économies avancées ainsi que celle des pays émergents et les flux d‟investissement vers les économies à revenu intermédiaire. Cette étude montre qu‟un effet d‟éviction entre pays (développés et émergents) existe mais aussi que l‟économie mondiale tend vers un nouveau paradigme. Le dernier chapitre quant à lui étudie la cyclicité des politiques budgétaires pour un échantillon de pays d‟Afrique subsaharienne et d‟Amérique latine. La méthode choisie a permis de suivre l‟évolution de la procyclicité des politiques budgétaires d‟année en année et de montrer que les pays en développement surtout africains progressivement adoptent des politiques de plus en plus disciplinées et prudentes / The use of fiscal policy as a stabilization and stimulus tool face a renewed interest from analyst and policy makers. After almost three decades where neo-Classical ideas were dominant, the recent financial crisis (late 2007) marked the reborn of Keynesian ideas on the importance of the State budget during economic downturns. This dissertation focuses on this issue and provides with stylized facts of fiscal policies in developing economies, and the main aim being to be able to say whether fiscal policy is an efficient political economy tool. Chapter 2 focuses on the issue of unanticipated fiscal measures on the economy. Using a structural VAR approach it investigates whether unanticipated budget measures can be used to stimulate a declining economy and what kind of challenges and threats this strategy imposes to public authorities. Chapter 3, relying on a gravity model, analyses the relationship between emerging and advanced economies fiscal aggregates and capital flows. It shows that there exists a “global” crowding out effect of investment towards emerging markets and, most important is that world economy is entering into a new paradigm. The last chapter from a panel of Sub-Saharan African and Latin American economies studies the issue of fiscal procyclicality. The empirical strategy has allowed us on a yearly basis to characterise the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policies in both set of countries. It has been shown that developing countries especially African ones are adopting progressively more prudent and disciplined policies.

Stressed Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a statistic used to measure an entity's exposure to market risk by evaluating possible extreme portfolio losses. Stressed VaR scenarios can be used as a metric to describe the state of the financial market and can be used to detect and counter procyclicality by allowing central clearing counterparities (CCP) to increase margin requirements. This thesis aims to implement and evaluate machine learning methods (e.g., neural networks) for selecting stressed VaR scenarios in price return stock datasets where one liquidity day is assumed. The models are implemented to counter the procyclical effects present in NASDAQ's dual lambda method such that the selection maximises the total margin metric. Three machine learning models are implemented together with a labelling algorithm, a supervised and unsupervised multilayer perceptron and a random forest model. The labelling algorithm employs a deviation metric to differentiate between stressed VaR and standard scenarios. The models are trained and tested using 5000 scenarios of price return values from historical stock datasets. The models are tested using visual results, confusion matrix, Cohen's kappa statistic, the adjusted rand index and the total margin metric. The total margin metric is computed using normalised profit and loss values from artificially generated portfolios. The implemented machine learning models and the labelling algorithm manage to counter the procyclical effects evident in the dual lambda method and selected stressed VaR scenarios such that the selection maximise the total margin metric. The random forest model shows the most promise in classifying stressed VaR scenarios, since it manages to maximise the total margin overall.

This study provides evidence of the relationship between bank-granted credit and business cycles in South Africa. The study is conducted in three phases, namely qualitative research (Phase I), quantitative research (Phase II) and econometric analysis (Phase III). A sequential (connected data) mixed methodology (Phase I and II) is used to collect and analyze primary data from market participants. The qualitative research (Phase I) involves structured interviews with influential or well informed people on the subject matter. Phase I of the study is used to understand the key determinants of bank credit in South Africa and to appreciate how each of the credit aggregates behaves during alternate business cycles. Qualitative survey results suggest key determinants of commercial bank credit in South Africa as economic growth, collateral value, bank competition, money supply, deposit liabilities, capital requirements, bank lending rates and inflation. The qualitative results are used to formulate questions of the structured survey questionnaire (Quantitative research- Phase II). The ANOVA and Pearman’s product correlation analysis techniques are used to assess relationship between variables. The quantitative results show that there is direct and positive relationship between bank lending behavior and credit aggregates namely economic growth, collateral value, bank competition and money supply. On the other hand, the results show that there is a negative relationship between credit growth and bank capital and lending rates. Overall, the quantitative findings show that bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. The survey results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. The econometric methodology is used to augment results of the survey study. Phase III of the study re-examines econometric relationship between bank lending and business cycles. The study employs cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques in order to test for existence of long-run relationship between the selected variables. Granger causality test technique is applied to the variables of interest to test for direction of causation between variables. The study uses quarterly data for the period of 1980:Q1 to 2013:Q4. Business cycles are determined and measured by Gross Domestic Product at market prices while bank-granted credit is proxied by credit extension to the private sector. The econometric test results show that there is a significant long-run relationship between economic growth and bank credit extension. The Granger causality test provides evidence of unidirectional causal relationship with direction from economic growth to credit extension for South Africa. The study results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. Economic growth spurs credit market development in South Africa. Overall, the results show that there is a stable long-run relationship between macroeconomic business cycles and real credit growth in South Africa. The results show that economic growth significantly causes and stimulates bank credit. The study, therefore, recommends that South Africa needs to give policy priority to promotion and development of the real sector of the economy to propel and accelerate credit extension. Economic growth is considered as the significant policy variable to stimulate credit extension. The findings therefore hold important implications for both theory and policy. / Business Management / D.B.L.

L’expérience de la « Grande Récession » a conduit économistes et praticiens à porter une attention particulière àla stabilité financière,mais aussi, dans la perspective de sortie de crise, aux moyens de financer l’émergence d’unnouveau modèle de croissance plus durable.Dans ce contexte, notre thèse se propose d’apprécier l’influence de laconcurrence bancaire sur la stabilité et sur l’efficience, afin d’éclairer le débat sur le degré de concurrence optimalen Europe. À cet effet, on étudie, tout d’abord, les effets de la concurrence bancaire sur l’instabilité financière, ense saisissant du concept de risque systémique. Cela nous conduit à mener à bien deux études distinctes : l’uneportant sur la répartition du risque systémique entre entités financières, l’autre sur la procyclicité financière.Dansles deux cas, nous concluons à l’existence d’un lien positif entre concurrence et stabilité. Nous nous intéressonsensuite à la question de la stabilité en termes d’efficacité de la politique de stabilisationmonétaire. Dans ce cadre,on met en évidence que la concurrence bancaire améliore l’efficacité de deux canaux de transmission : le canal destaux d’intérêt et le canal du crédit bancaire. L’insuffisance de l’intégration bancaire européenne, dont témoignel’hétérogénéité de la concurrence, s’avère ainsi un facteur explicatif de la fragmentation observée de la zone euro.Finalement, nous considérons la possibilité que la croissance économique puisse être fonction de la concurrencebancaire. À cet effet, on montre d’abord que cette dernière aurait théoriquement deux effets contradictoires sur lacroissance économique, avant finalement, de faire valoir empiriquement que la concurrence bancaire exerce, enEurope, des effets négatifs sur la croissance économique, en particulier en freinant la croissance de la productivitéglobale des facteurs. Nos travaux accréditent donc l’idée que stimuler la concurrence conduit à un arbitrage entrestabilité et efficience. / The experience of the “Great Recession” has led economists and policymakers to pay particular attention tofinancial stability. It also lead them to think how to get out of this recession, and particularly on the meansof financing the emergence of a new, more sustainable growth model. In this context, this thesis studies theinfluence of bank competition on stability and efficiency in order to shed light on the debate about the optimallevel of bank competition in Europe. For this purpose, we first study the effects of bank competition on financialinstability by focusing on the concept of systemic risk. This leads us to undertake two distinct studies: onefocusing on the distribution of systemic risk between financial institutions; the other on financial procyclicality.In both cases, we conclude that a positive link between competition and stability does exist.We then focus on thequestion of stability in terms of the effectiveness of the monetary stabilisation policy. In this respect, we show thatbank competition improves the efficiency of two channels of monetary transmission: the interest rate and thebank lending channels. Therefore, the lack of European banking integration, highlighted by the heterogeneity ofbank competition, is one factor that explains the fragmentation that can be observed in the Eurozone. Finally, weconsider the possibility that economic growth may be a function of bank competition. To do this, we first showhow competition could impact economic growth in theory, and find two opposing effects. We then demonstrateempirically that bank competition has negative effects on economic growth, in particular by decreasing totalfactor productivity growth. Our work hence supports the idea that stimulating competition leads to a trade-offbetween stability and efficiency.