Forecasting is a critical component of project management. Project managers must be able to make reliable predictions about the final duration and cost of projects starting from project inception. Such predictions need to be revised and compared with the project’s objectives to obtain early warnings against potential problems. Therefore, the effectiveness of project controls relies on the capability of project managers to make reliable forecasts in a timely manner. This dissertation focuses on forecasting project schedule progress with probabilistic methods. Currently available methods, for example, the critical path method (CPM) and earned value management (EVM) are deterministic and fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and project performance. The objective of this dissertation is to improve the predictive capabilities of project managers by developing probabilistic forecasting methods that integrate all relevant information and uncertainties into consistent forecasts in a mathematically sound procedure usable in practice. In this dissertation, two probabilistic methods, the Kalman filter forecasting method (KFFM) and the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method (BAFM), were developed. The KFFM and the BAFM have the following advantages over the conventional methods: (1) They are probabilistic methods that provide prediction bounds on predictions; (2) They are integrative methods that make better use of the prior performance information available from standard construction management practices and theories; and (3) They provide a systematic way of incorporating measurement errors into forecasting. The accuracy and early warning capacity of the KFFM and the BAFM were also evaluated and compared against the CPM and a state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method. Major conclusions from this research are: (1) The state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method can be used to obtain reliable warnings only after the project performance has stabilized; (2) The CPM is not capable of providing early warnings due to its retrospective nature; (3) The KFFM and the BAFM can and should be used to forecast progress and to obtain reliable early warnings of all projects; and (4) The early warning capacity of forecasting methods should be evaluated and compared in terms of the timeliness and reliability of warning in the context of formal early warning systems.

Traditional scheduling tools like Gantt Charts and CPM while useful in planning and execution of complex construction projects with multiple interdependent activities haven?t been of much help in implementing effective control systems for the same projects in case of deviation from their desired or assumed behavior. Further, in case of such deviations project managers in most cases make decisions which might be guided either by the prospects of short term gains or the intension of forcing the project to follow the original schedule or plan, inadvertently increasing the overall project cost. Many deterministic project control methods have been proposed by various researchers for calculating optimal resource schedules considering the time-cost as well as the time-cost-quality trade-off analysis. But the need is for a project control system which optimizes the effort or cost required for controlling the project by incorporating the stochastic dynamic nature of the construction-production process. Further, such a system must include a method for updating and revising the beliefs or models used for representing the dynamics of the project using the actual progress data of the project. This research develops such an optimal project control method using Kalman Filter forecasting method for updating and using the assumed project dynamics model for forecasting the Estimated Cost at Completion (EAC) and the Estimated Duration at Completion (EDAC) taking into account the inherent uncertainties in the project progress and progress measurements. The controller is then formulated for iteratively calculating the optimal resource allocation schedule that minimizes either the EAC or both the EAC and EDAC together using the evolutionary optimization algorithm Covariance Matrix Adaption Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). The implementation of the developed framework is used with a hypothetical project and tested for its robustness in updating the assumed initial project dynamics model and yielding the optimal control policy considering some hypothetical cases of uncertainties in the project progress and progress measurements. Based on the tests and demonstrations firstly it is concluded that a project dynamics model based on the project Gantt chart for spatial interdependencies of sub-tasks with triangular progress rates is a good representation of a typical construction project; and secondly, it is shown that the use of CMA-ES in conjunction with the Kalman Filter estimation and forecasting method provides a robust framework that can be implemented for any kind of complex construction process for yielding the optimal control policies.

The phenomenon of industries developing into group organizations has become more and more popular. Most group industries are working actively and hard to expand their market shares and profits by diversifying their investments. Because of having a complete self-developed system, some group companies think their practical experience of business flow paths in system development can be used as reference resources for other companies. These group companies, therefore, encourage their information units to shift the models of ¡§entrepreneurial venture Spin-off company¡¨. According to the past experience and impressions of cooperating with the spin-off companies, some subsidiaries of the group companies have developed a strategy to outsource their information system to spin-off companies. This is a case study with long-term observation in the field. We use the theory of Aspiration-Level Adaptation (Cyert & March, 1963) as a basis to explain the process of decision adaptation while the subsidiary of the group company seeks for software outsourcing from a spin-off company. The outsourcing of the subsidiary of the group company was determined by the inter-trust relationship between the subsidiary and spin-off company as well as the past working performance. The decision index is quite simple. But when the performance of the outsourcing information spin-off company cannot meet the subsidiary¡¦s expectations, the subsidiary will adjust its behaviors and decisions toward the spin-off company by its past experience. The subsidiary will also set up a suitable outsourcing management and control mechanism. Thus, we can see that the information outsourcing process is a continual process of aspiration-level adaptation, and the outsourcing company will adjust its decision according to the degrees that the spin-off company meets its expectancy level.

An enterprise is composed of different departments, and these departments work together to achieve goals of business processes collaboratively. However, most of these business processes comprise loose operations, and information can¡¦t be passed efficiently among them. Hence, if an enterprise wants to promote competence, the problem of inefficient execution of processes must be improved. And, if workflows could have more flexibility, it will bring more benefits for enterprises. In this study, there are four parts to discuss flexible workflows. Firstly, we discussed workflows including the definitions of flexible workflows. Secondly, we discussed resource management including workflows with resource management and constraints programming. Thirdly, we discussed project management including the definition of project management and techniques. Finally, we discussed medical flows including three kinds of medical flows. We propose a prototyping system architecture including workflow management, resource management and project management to implement flexible workflows. In the experiment, we use a medical flow to explain how this system works. And, this system can produce a feasible schedule by a constraint solver.

With industry expanding and new technologies booming, more and more, IS Department use team approach to increase their competitiveness and to reach their targets. Project is a special formation with clear mission, target and timeline. Within nine major knowledge territories of Project Management, communication management is the most time consuming for Project Managers. Besides, Projects rely heavily on team members' cooperation to proceed; thus, how to provide a good and effective communication channel is a major factor for successful projects. This research use Jürgen Habermas's Theory of Communicative Action as main approch thourgh out Project Management and Communication Management. The main purpose of this research is to: 1: Finding Project's validity basis thematize and the mode of communication. 2: Finding the rational communication method, which allows both parties to identify themselves toward the goal, and increases the success of Project Manager's leading effort. This research showed the Project Manager use communication management to thematize the truth claim to gain the trust of team members to move along with the project. And also Project Manager will use communication management to emphasize the truthfulness claim of him or herself to get them heard. This will gain the recognition from team members to get the project to reach its goal. Moreover, this research also use the basic conversation for action to find the successfully communication method in IS project and to provide the Project Managers ways to establish effective communication methods.

Abstract Recently, the engineering scale has been generating larger and larger, and the engineering content tends to be more complicated as a result of the rapid development of engineering techniques. There were so many defects incurred in traditional contracting method by separating and entrusting design and construction service work to different contractors. The owner of petrochemical industry therefore tends to adopt ¡§design-build contracts¡¨ in order to reduce engineering management manpower, shorten work duration, clarify engineering obligation and liability, advance engineering quality as well as save engineering cost. Engineering contractors have to go through the proposal preparation process and then the open bid or individual negotiation to bid for ¡§design-build contract¡¨. After being awarded, the successful contractors have to establish the objectives of projects as per contract and exert management expertise to enable the plant-building work being completed on schedule and under the fixed budget. And then hand over the plant to owner in smooth process and achieve the objectives simultaneously. Through literature review, theoretic structure of petrochemical plant¡¦s design-build projects and practical cases, this research integrates the theory of project management and sums up seven management methods as follows: (1) Proposal preparation; (2) Contract signing; (3) Project planning; (4) Project execution; (5) Project control; (6) Handing over engineering; and (7) Project closed-out for engineering contractors. These comprehensive management methods are aimed to achieve the five goals of engineering project, i.e. quality, schedule, cost, safety and the interaction with owner. Finally, the research makes some conclusions and recommendations to which the contractors can refer in undertaking design-build projects in the future.

My research is about monitoring the software development process to assess Capability maturity level. Capability Maturity Model (CMM) was developed to improve the software process based on subjective assessment by teams of experts. We propose an objective CMM assessment, which replaces expensive and time-consuming human effort by a knowledge-based system. Compared to Subjective CMM assessment, Objective CMM assessment can be less expensive, takes less time, and is easy to estimate the software development environment maturity. The accuracy of Objective CMM assessment can be the same as Subjective CMM assessment if enough activities are represented as objective activities. For example, if subjective activities total 80 % and objective activities total 20 %, then the accuracy of Objective CMM assessment is not reliable. It would be reliable if the objective activity is increased up to 80% from 20%. This dissertation presents how to change from Subjective CMM assessment to Objective CMM assessment, and we will prove that Objective CMM Assessment is effective.

Forecasting is a critical component of project management. Project managers must be able to make reliable predictions about the final duration and cost of projects starting from project inception. Such predictions need to be revised and compared with the project's objectives to obtain early warnings against potential problems. Therefore, the effectiveness of project controls relies on the capability of project managers to make reliable forecasts in a timely manner. This dissertation focuses on forecasting project schedule progress with probabilistic methods. Currently available methods, for example, the critical path method (CPM) and earned value management (EVM) are deterministic and fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and project performance. The objective of this dissertation is to improve the predictive capabilities of project managers by developing probabilistic forecasting methods that integrate all relevant information and uncertainties into consistent forecasts in a mathematically sound procedure usable in practice. In this dissertation, two probabilistic methods, the Kalman filter forecasting method (KFFM) and the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method (BAFM), were developed. The KFFM and the BAFM have the following advantages over the conventional methods: (1) They are probabilistic methods that provide prediction bounds on predictions; (2) They are integrative methods that make better use of the prior performance information available from standard construction management practices and theories; and (3) They provide a systematic way of incorporating measurement errors into forecasting. The accuracy and early warning capacity of the KFFM and the BAFM were also evaluated and compared against the CPM and a state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method. Major conclusions from this research are: (1) The state-of-the-art EVM schedule forecasting method can be used to obtain reliable warnings only after the project performance has stabilized; (2) The CPM is not capable of providing early warnings due to its retrospective nature; (3) The KFFM and the BAFM can and should be used to forecast progress and to obtain reliable early warnings of all projects; and (4) The early warning capacity of forecasting methods should be evaluated and compared in terms of the timeliness and reliability of warning in the context of formal early warning systems.

To improve the value of enterprise, besides continuously utilizing vivacious creativities on new technology research a company also needs to quickly and constantly release new products and uplift added-values for all products. In the trend of globalization, corporations in Taiwan must meliorate their capability of product development project management to deal with the changing and dynamic environment thus create higher business profits and maintain some competitive advantages. For the optical micro-structure product development to succeed, business need to consider the external environment, internal resources and the characteristics of product development project in according with its initial resource and technical limitation then through systematic project management to accomplish it. This research adopts an architecture-oriented approach to strength the task of optical micro-structure product development project management. This research uses logic principle as a foundation, goes through (1) architecture-oriented construction approach, (2) non-architecture-oriented construction approach, and (3) comparison between architecture-oriented and non-architecture-oriented to confirm advantages of architecture-oriented optical micro-structure project management. With ¡§architecture hierarchy diagram", "structure element diagram", "structure element service diagram", "structure element connection diagram", "structure behavior coalescence diagram", and "interactive flow diagram", this thesis builds up an architecture-oriented optical micro-structure project management model, abbreviated as AOOMSPMM. Through AOOMSPMM, we are able to provide an effective construction approach hence reduce the failure risk and time cost when working on the optical micro-structure product development project management. Keywords: Optical Micro-Structure Product Development, Project Management Model, Architecture-Oriented

For many medium and small enterprises, ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) has been a mature solution as a main application system. It is not only to support organizational internal operation but also business between corporations. However, this solution is usually complicate and expensive. Prior research has indicated that about three quarters of the attempted ERP projects turned out to be unsuccessful. A common problem encountered in adopting an ERP package has been the issue of project delay. In many cases, lack of project auditing is the main reason for project delay. This study proposes a methodology, enhanced from Wu (2008) and integrates it with auditing to address the above problem. The enhanced methodology includes eight steps: Implementation Plan, Monitor, Training, Operation Analysis, Solution plan, System tailoring to ready, Pilot Run, Officially online and efficiency evaluation. Three cases are used to demonstrate the usability of proposed methodology. It helps to identify and resolve the potential problems for each ERP implementation process systematically and thereby increase the probability of ERP implementation success.