Lau, Ka Ho. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 46-48). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction to Global Credit Risk Management Standard --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Background --- p.2 / Chapter 1.2 --- Basel Accords --- p.2 / Chapter 1.3 --- Risk Bucketing --- p.7 / Chapter 2 --- Current Practices of Risk Bucketing and PD Estimation --- p.10 / Chapter 2.1 --- Credit Scoring --- p.10 / Chapter 2.2 --- Risk Bucketing after Credit Scoring --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3 --- Related Literature Review --- p.14 / Chapter 2.4 --- Objective --- p.16 / Chapter 3 --- Bayesian Model for risk bucketing --- p.17 / Chapter 3.1 --- The Model --- p.17 / Chapter 3.2 --- Posterior Distribution --- p.19 / Chapter 3.3 --- Gibbs Sampler for the Posterior Distribution --- p.22 / Chapter 3.3.1 --- General Gibbs Sampler Theory --- p.22 / Chapter 3.3.2 --- The Gibbs Sampler for the Proposed Model --- p.23 / Chapter 3.4 --- Monitoring Convergence of the Gibbs Sampler --- p.26 / Chapter 3.5 --- "Estimation, Bucketing and Prediction" --- p.28 / Chapter 3.5.1 --- Estimation --- p.28 / Chapter 3.5.2 --- Bucketing --- p.28 / Chapter 3.5.3 --- Prediction --- p.29 / Appendix --- p.29 / Chapter 4 --- Simulation Studies and Real Data Analysis --- p.32 / Chapter 4.1 --- Simulation Studies --- p.32 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Details of Simulation --- p.32 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Simulation Procedures --- p.34 / Chapter 4.1.3 --- Predictive Performance --- p.35 / Chapter 4.1.4 --- Summary of Simulation Results --- p.36 / Chapter 4.2 --- Real Data Analysis --- p.37 / Chapter 5 --- Conclusion and Discussion --- p.44 / Bibliography --- p.46

In the early 1930’s the film business was booming and filled with sex, drugs, and scandal. All of that changed in 1934 with the enforcement of the Hollywood Production Code which effectively cleaned up the business into what most people today remember as classic Hollywood. By analyzing films from the Pre-Code era, and specifically Baby Face (1933), the roots of self-censorship in Hollywood can be traced to their current incarnation in the film business today.

Recent commentary has suggested that performance management (PM) is fundamentally “broken,” with negative feelings from managers and employees toward the process at an all-time high (Pulakos, Hanson, Arad, & Moye, ; Pulakos & O'Leary, ). In response, some high-profile organizations have decided to eliminate performance ratings altogether as a solution to the growing disenchantment. Adler et al. () offer arguments both in support of and against eliminating performance ratings in organizations. Although both sides of the debate in the focal article make some strong arguments both for and against utilizing performance ratings in organizations, we believe there continue to be misunderstandings, mischaracterizations, and misinformation with respect to some of the measurement issues in PM. We offer the following commentary not to persuade readers to adopt one particular side over another but as a call to critically reconsider and reevaluate some of the assumptions underlying measurement issues in PM and to dispel some of the pervasive beliefs throughout the performance rating literature.

The Long Term Bridge Performance (LTBP) Program is a 20-year program initiated by the Federal Highway Administration to better understand the behavior of highway bridges as they deteriorate due to environmental variables and vehicle loads. Part of this program includes the periodic testing of selected bridges. The Lambert Road Bridge was subjected to nondestructive testing in the fall of 2009. Part of this testing included a live load test. This test involved driving two heavy trucks across the instrumented bridge on selected load paths. The bridge was instrumented with strain, displacement, and tilt sensors. This collected data was used to calibrate a finite element model. This finite element model was used to determine the theoretical live load distribution factors. Using the controlling distribution factor from the finite element model, the inventory and operating ratings of the bridge were determined. These load ratings were compared to those obtained from using the controlling distribution factor from the AASHTO LRFD Specifications. This thesis also examined how different parameters such as span length, girder spacing, parapets, skew, continuity, deck overhang, and deck thickness affect the distribution factors of box girder bridges. This was done by creating approximately 40 finite element models and comparing the results to those obtained by using the AASHTO LRFD Specifications.

The Borg Ratings of Perceived Exertion (RPE) Scale has proven to be a highly popular instrument in measuring the subjective responses of individuals to a given work or exercise task. Historically, the instrument was designed to correlate highly with the heart rates in young-to-middle-aged men performing various tasks. The body of literature, however, has revealed inconsistencies in the extent of just how strong the relationship is between ratings of perceived exertion and various physiological criterion variables, most notably, heart rate. In addition, most studies have invoked the question of whether the criterion-related validity coefficients derived from the relationship between ratings of perceived exertion and a specified physiological criterion variable are just as valid as those for which the Borg RPE Scale was originally performed. A meta-analysis, therefore, was undertaken to determine the magnitude of the relationship between ratings of perceived exertion scores and each of three commonly used physiological measures or criterion variables: heart rate, blood lactate, and oxygen uptake. Results show that by using Tests of Homogeneity for each physiological criterion variable, the observed sample size-weighted validity coefficients are heterogeneous. The median of the mean sample size-weighted validity coefficients is .574 for heart rate, .561 for blood lactate, and .480 for oxygen uptake. Each study in the meta-analysis was grouped by the study characteristics of subject gender, fitness level, RPE Scale, exercise type, exercise protocol, and study quality. For heart rate, the highest validity coefficients are those in which the subjects are highly fit, the exercise type is fairly unusual, such as swimming, and the subjects are required to maximally exert themselves. For blood lactate, the highest validity coefficients are for females, healthy-inactive subjects, the 15-point RPE Scale, treadmill use, and swimming. For oxygen uptake, the highest validity coefficients between ratings of perceived exertion and oxygen uptake are for swimming. In a meta-analysis of study effects, when the validity coefficients are analyzed by study, the resultant mean validity coefficients are only somewhat higher (ratings of perceived exertion and heart rate, .657; ratings of perceived exertion and blood lactate, .642; ratings of perceived exertion and oxygen uptake, .609) than those obtained using sample size-weighted validity coefficients. Finally, corrections for bias generally resulted in increased validity coefficients and decreased variances.

To what extent do unexpected, apolitical events affect governors’ popularity? Individuals’ attitudes towards government are often random, and executives at both the state-level and national-level are held accountable for events that they have little control over. In this study, I seek to understand how these unplanned events affect support for elected officials. Specifically, I examine the effect of the declaration of a State of Emergency on gubernatorial approval. I use an ordinary least squares (OLS) model and data from FEMA as well as the United States Officials Job Approval Ratings dataset to answer such questions. The results indicate that not only do natural and manmade disasters NOT have a negative effect on governors’ popularity, there is actually no correlation between the two variables at all. Instead, I find that relative to one another, major disaster declarations have a stronger negative effect on a governor’s approval ratings than emergency declarations. Though surprising, I suggest that these disasters simply do not affect enough individuals for a long enough time to have an impact on gubernatorial popularity.

In this dissertation, I focus my research on some of the economically significant and current open problems in international finance, specifically the relationship between Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on sovereign debt, the importance of fundamental dyadic distances on the initiation and completion of cross-border mergers and acquisitions, and the impact of domestic and transnational terrorism on cross-border mergers and acquisitions. In the first essay, we study the relationship between sovereign debt ratings and the information contained in CDS spreads regarding the credit risk of the reference entity. Using data for 54 countries over a twelve-year period, we find that the variation in average sovereign ratings in a given year can be explained by average CDS spreads over the previous three years. In a horse race between CDS spreads and sovereign ratings, we find that CDS spread changes can predict sovereign events while rating changes cannot. In the second essay, we study how dyadic distance influences the initiation, completion, and duration of cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Using a sample of 173,616 cross-border deals announced between 1970 and 2016, we find evidence that cross-country cultural, institutional, geographical, religious, and language differences, all play a deciding role in the initiation of mergers and acquisitions. The completion of acquisitions is independent of cultural factors, but largely depends on differences in economy size, language, religion, and bureaucracy of the acquiring and target countries. Finally, the duration of deals is influenced by idiosyncratic factors only. In the third essay, we study whether incidents of domestic and transnational terrorism impact the propensity of firms to acquire cross-border firms. We adopt a theoretical model to show that high levels of terrorism in the target countries are associated with lower cross-border acquisition flows. Empirically, we exploit the exogenous variation induced by differences in genetic diversity, ethnic fractionalization, and religious fractionalization between acquirer and target countries. Our results show that an target from a country with lower terrorist incidents than the acquirer country are associated with more cross-border mergers and acquisitions.

Research has documented the impact of peer influences on adolescents for health risk behaviors such as smoking and drinking alcohol. However, few studies have done an in-depth investigation of peer-related risk and protective factors affecting body dissatisfaction and disordered eating among adolescent girls. The study sample consisted of 344 adolescent girls from high schools in Pasco County, Florida. Participants completed questionnaires assessing the impact of peers on their weight and appearance attitudes, beliefs and behaviors. Participants also identified their close friends (using a coding system) and rated their own figures. Trained research assistants provided objective figure ratings for the participants. The participants completed measures assessing body dissatisfaction, drive for thinness, bulimic symptoms and self-esteem (criterion variables). Results of the analyses indicated that participants were not significantly similar to their nominated friends in the criterion variables. Correlations between peer variables and criterion variables were significant supporting peer-related risk factors. Findings of correlation and regression analyses were inconsistent for the predicted protective factor of friend anti-dieting advice. A significant amount of variance in the criterion variables of body dissatisfaction, drive for thinness, bulimic symptoms and self-esteem was predicted by the peer influence variables. Results supported the hypothesis that comparison would serve as a mediator between peer influence and the criterion variables. Internalization and peer suppression of feelings functioned as mediators in the relationship between peer influence and self-esteem, bulimic symptoms and body dissatisfaction. Implications for future research and application of findings in intervention programs are discussed.

Children who receive cochlear implants (CIs) demonstrate considerable variability in speech sound production. Investigations focused on speech sound development in children with CIs have shown initial accelerated growth, followed by a plateau where consonant order of acquisition generally mirrors that of NH children, but is slower (Blamey, Barry, & Pascale, 2001; Serry & Blamey, 1999; Spencer & Guo, 2013). A notable exception to this pattern, /t/, has been shown to be acquired later-than normal in several investigations (Blamey et al., 2001; Chin, 2003; Ertmer, True Kloiber, Jongmin, Connell Kirleis, & Bradford, 2012). The primary purpose of this investigation was to 1) examine the accuracy of /t/ productions in children with CIs and 2) quantify subtle phonetic differences in correctly produced consonants and substituted consonants (or covert contrast). Two groups of children who had participated in a larger study that examined the influence of speech production abilities on speech perception scores of children with CI (Gonzalez, 2013) provided the speech stimuli for this investigation. The experimental group included nine congenitally deafened children with CI, ranging in age from 2;11 to 6;4 years (M=4;9), who were implanted by 3 years of age, had at least 12 months of device experience, and only used an oral mode of communication. These children were matched to typically developing children by articulation ability and gender. Recordings of the verbal responses on the OlimSpac were obtained from the Gonzalez (2013) study. Thirty-three graduate students in speech-language pathology rated the phonetic accuracy of /t/ and the phonemes that were found to be most often substituted for it, /d/ and /ʧ/ on a 7 point equal-appearing interval scale. A three-way ANOVA was performed to determine the differences in perceived consonant accuracy across: group, transcription category, and phoneme substitution. The significant interaction between group and transcription category was of particular interest. Results indicated that children with CIs did not show an unusually delayed development of /t/. When a confusion matrix was generated to depict overall OlimSpac performance, the NH group was noted to outperform the CI group across all phonemes. This would suggest that /t/ was not uniquely poorer in the CI group, but instead these children evidenced poorer phoneme accuracy in general. Finally, group differences also were apparent in substitutions of [t] for target /d/ and /ʧ/ productions (i.e., covert contrast). The clinical applications are described.

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia (2006) the increased supply of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS), with a range of subordination, has broadened the investor base in real estate debt markets and reduced the commercial property sector’s dependence on bank financing The CMBS market has been one of the most dynamic and fastest-growing sectors in the capital markets, for a market which was virtually nonexistent prior to 1990. The global CMBS market issuance which stood at AU$5.1 billion (US$4 billion) in 1990 had grown to AU$380 billion (US$299 billion) by the end of 2006. In Australia, a total of over 60 CMBSs with nearly 180 tranches totalling over AU$17.4 billion had been issued to December 2006 from when they were first introduced in 1999. To date few studies have been done on Australian CMBSs outside the credit rating agency circles. These studies are predominantly practitioner focused (Jones Lang LaSalle 2001; Richardson 2003; Roche 2000, 2002). O’Sullivan (1998) and Simonovski (2003) are the only academic studies on CMBSs. As such, this thesis examines issues relating to the development of Australian CMBSs and quantitatively and qualitatively analyses the structuring of Australian CMBSs. In assessing the growth of the Australian CMBS market, an interpretive historical approach (Baumgarter & Hensley 2005) is adopted to provide a cogent review and explanation of features of international and Australian CMBSs. This helps to understand the changing nature of the market and provides better understanding of the present and suggests possible future directions. The Australian CMBS market is matured in comparison with the larger US and EU CMBS markets as seen by the diversity of asset classes backing the issues and transaction types, tightening spreads, and record issuance volumes. / High property market transparency (Jones Lang LaSalle 2006b) and predominance of Listed Property Trusts (LPT) as CMBS issuers (Standard & Poor’s 2005b), who legally have to report their activities and underlying collateral performance to regulatory regimes such as Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)/Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) and their equity partners, have contributed to the success of the Australian CMBS market. Furthermore, the positive commercial real estate market outlook should support future CMBS issuance, with LPTs continuing their dominance as issuers. In investigating property risk assessment in Australian CMBSs, all the CMBSs issued over a six year period of 2000 to 2005 were obtained from Standard and Poor’s presale reports as found in their Ratings Direct database to identify and review how property risk factors were addressed in all issues and within specific property asset classes following the delineation of property risk by Adair and Hutchinson (2005). Adequate assessment of property risk and its reporting is critical to the success of CMBS issues. The proposed framework shows that assessing and reporting property risk in Australian CMBSs, which are primarily backed by direct property assets, under the headings of investment quality risk, covenant strength risk, and depreciation and obsolescence risk can easily be done. The proposed framework should prove useful to rating agencies, bond issuers and institutional investors. Rating agencies can adopt a more systematic and consistent approach towards reporting of assessed property risk in CMBSs. Issuers and institutional investors can examine the perceived consistency and appropriateness of the rating assigned to a CMBS issue by providing inferences concerning property risk assessment. / The ultimate goal of structuring CMBS transactions is to obtain a high credit rating as this has an impact on the yield obtainable and the success of the issue. The credit rating process involves highly subjective assessment of both qualitative and quantitative factors of a particular company as well as pertinent industry level or market level variables (Huang et al. 2004), with the final rating assigned by a credit committee via voting (Kwon et al. 1997). As such, credit rating agencies state that researchers cannot replicate their ratings quantitatively since their ratings reflect each agency’s opinion about an issue’s potential default risk and relies heavily on a committee’s analysis of the issuer’s ability and willingness to repay its debt. However, researchers have replicated bond ratings on the premise that financial ratios contain a large amount of information about a company’s credit risk. In this study, quantitative analysis of determinants of CMBS credit ratings issued by Standard and Poor’s from 2000 – 2006 using ANNs and OR and qualitative analysis of factors considered necessary to obtain a high credit rating and pricing issues necessary for the success of an issue through mail surveys of arrangers and issuers are undertaken. Of the quantitative variables propagated by credit rating agencies as being important to CMBS rating, only loan-to-value ratio (LTV) is found to be statistically significant, with the other variables being statistically insignificant using OR. This leads to the conclusion that statistical approaches used in corporate bond rating studies have limited replication capabilities in CMBS rating and that the endogeneity arguments raise significant questions about LTV and debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) as convenient, short-cut measures of CMBS default risk. / However, ANNs do offer promising predictive results and can be used to facilitate implementation of survey-based CMBS rating systems. This should contribute to making the CMBS rating methodology become more explicit which is advantageous in that both CMBS investors and issuers are provided with greater information and faith in the investment. ANN results show that 62.0% of CMBS rating is attributable to LTV (38.2%) and DSCR (23.6%); supporting earlier studies which have listed the two as being the most important variables in CMBS rating. The other variables’ contributions are: CMBS issue size (10.1%), CMBS tenure (6.7%), geographical diversity (13.5%) and property diversity (7.9%) respectively. The methodology used to obtain these results is validated when applied to predict LPT bond ratings. Both OR and ANN produce provide robust alternatives to rating LPT bonds, with no significant differences in results between the full models of the two methods. Qualitative analysis of surveys on arrangers and issuers provides insights into structuring issues they consider necessary to obtain a high credit rating and pricing issues necessary for the success of an issue. Rating of issues was found to be the main reason why investors invest in CMBSs and provision of funds at attractive rates as the main motivation behind CMBS issuance. Furthermore, asset quality was found to be the most important factor necessary to obtain a high credit rating supporting the view by Henderson and ING Barings (1997) that assets backing securitisation are its fundamental credit strength. / In addition, analyses of the surveys reveal the following: • The choice of which debt funding option to use depends on market conditions. • Credit tranching, over-collateralisation and cross-collateralisation are the main forms of credit enhancement in use. • On average, the AAA note tranche needs to be above AU$100 million and have 60 - 85% subordination for the CMBS issue to be economically viable. • Structuring costs range between 0.1% – 1% of issue size and structuring duration ranges from 4 – 9 months. • Preferred refinancing options are further capital market issues and bank debt. • Pricing CMBSs is greatly influenced by factors in the broader capital markets. For instance, the market had literary shut down as a result of the “credit crunch” caused by the meltdown in the US sub-prime mortgage market. These findings can be useful to issuers as a guide on the cost of going to the bond market to raise capital, which can be useful in comparing with other sources of funds. The findings of this thesis address crucial research priorities of the property industry as CMBSs are seen as a major commercial real estate debt instrument. By looking at how property risk can be assessed and reported in a more systematic way, and investigating quantitative and qualitative factors considered in structuring CMBSs, investor confidence can be increased through the increased body of knowledge. Several published refereed journal articles in Appendix C further validate the stature and significance of this thesis. It is evident that the property research in this thesis can lead aid in the revitalisation of the Australian CMBS market after the “shut down” caused by the melt-down in the US sub-prime mortgage market and can also be used to set up property-backed CMBSs in emerging countries where the CMBS market is immature or non-existent.