[pt] O presente trabalho analisa o movimento recente nos preços de eurobonds emitidos por empresas brasileiras e a sua relação com a evolução do risco soberano brasileiro. Com o objetivo de verificar possíveis assimetrias na reação dos preços desses títulos a novas informações sobre as empresas emissoras em diferentes níveis do CDS associado à dívida soberana brasileira, testamos o comportamento dos preços dos eurobonds à divulgação de informações indicadoras dos fundamentos específicos das firmas emissoras de dívida, a saber: (i) alterações do rating atribuído por agências especializadas e (ii) anúncio do lucro por ação trimestral das empresas de capital aberto. Em linha com a literatura sobre o assunto, encontramos evidências de uma relação importante entre risco soberano e corporativo para o caso brasileiro. / [en] The present work analyzes the recent movement in the prices of Eurobonds issued by Brazilian companies and its relationship with the evolution of Brazilian sovereign risk. To identify possible asymmetries in the price reaction of these securities to new information regarding the debt issuers at different levels of the CDS associated with Brazilian sovereign debt, we tested the behavior of eurobonds prices to the disclosure of information about the specific fundamentals of issuers (i) changes in the rating attributed by specialized rating agencies and (ii) announcement of the quarterly earnings per share of publicly traded companies. In line with the literature on the subject, we find evidence of an important relationship between sovereign and corporate risk for the Brazilian case.

This study investigated if girls and boys high in ADHD symptomology exhibited and experienced relational and overt aggression differently than boys and girls without ADHD symptoms using peer, parent and teacher ratings. A measurement of social behavior for parent ratings was also validated. Using archival data, 371 3rd- 6th graders from a north Texas school district participated in the study, along with a parent or guardian and teachers. Results supported that ADHD subtype predicted more overt aggression according to parents and teachers but not peers. ADHD subtype did not predict more relational aggression but ADHD symptomology did. Contrary to past research, gender did not moderate relational aggression or internalizing symptoms from relational victimization. Furthermore, a parent version of the Child Social Behavior Scale was found to effectively measure relational, overt and prosocial behavior. Limitations, future directions and implications are discussed.

Problematisering: Studien har identifierat brist på forskning som redogör användbarheten av hållbarhetsrapporter för privatinvesterare i Sverige. Befintlig forskning har genomförts mest från företag och institutionella investerares perspektiv, därmed föreligger ett gap som behöver studeras. Syftet: Syftet med studien är att få en bättre förståelse av de incitament som leder till hållbara investeringar hos svenska privatinvesterare. Vidare ämnar sig studien att undersöka hur bedöms hållbarhetsrapporter och ESG-rating som informationskällor inför ett investeringsbeslut. Teoretisk referensram: Inledningsvis presenteras existerande forskning som redan genomförts inom detta område och sedan presenteras GRI:s sex principer. Därefter presenteras Planned Behavior-teori och Individens beslutsprocess- teori. Metod: En kvalitativ metod i form av semi-strukturerade intervjuer genomfördes med 9 privatinvesterare som har läst hållbarhetsrapporter tidigare och investerar hållbart idag. Respondenterna valdes ut genom forskarnas sociala medier och intervjuades antingen fysiskt eller på distans. Forskningsresultat: Resultatet visar att respondenterna får hållbarhetsinformation från olika källor beroende på deras attityd mot informationskällan som är baserad på tidigare erfarenheter,kunskapsnivå, preferens av tillgångsslag samt engagemangsnivå. Respondenterna väljer hållbara alternativ på grund av två faktorer; 1) god långsiktig avkastning och 2) starka värderingar. Hållbarhetsrapporter används av en tredjedel av respondenterna på grund av två faktorer; 1) krav på detaljerad information och 2) uppfattningen att hållbarhetsrapportering leder till ökat ansvarstagande hos företag. Respondenterna finner emellertid brister i rapporterna, i synnerhet i tydlighet och tillförlighet. Dessa brister kan delvis förklaras av respondenternas okunnighet samt företags försök att dölja underprestationer och betona positiva nyheter. Slutligen används ESG-ratings huvudsakligen för att respondenterna söker information som är lätt att få och lätt att förstå. Som det konstaterades i förhållande till hållbarhetsrapporter är tidigare erfarenheter även avgörande här till uppfattning av ESG-ratings. Respondenterna som använder sig av endast ESG-ratings har tidigare fått positiva upplevelser såsom social bekräftelse av sin omgivning vilket skapar då den positiva attityden mot ESG-ratings. Slutsatser: Både hållbarhetsrapporter och ESG-ratings har sina fördelar och nackdelar vilket påverkar användbarheten av det hos respondenterna. Det argumenteras att det i synnerhet är tidigare erfarenheter som skapar attityd och upprepade användning av informationskällor som underlag i investeringsbeslut för respektive respondent. / Problematization: The study has identified a lack of research that has studied the value of sustainability reports for private investors in Sweden. Existing research has mostly been conducted from the perspective of companies and institutional investors, hence there is a gap that needs to be studied.   Purpose: The purpose of the study is to gain a better understanding of the incentives that lead to sustainable investments for Swedish private investors. Furthermore, the study aims to investigate how sustainability reports and ESG ratings are assessed as sources of information in an investment decision.  Theoretical frame of reference:  Firstly, it presents the research that has already been done in this area and then proceeds to present the GRI framework. Finally, Planned Behavior theory and Individual decision process theory are presented.   Method: A qualitative method in the form of semi-structured interviews was conducted with 9 private investors who have read sustainability reports in the past and priorities sustainability in their investments. The respondents were selected through the researchers' social media and were interviewed either physically or remotely.   Research: The result shows that the respondents receive sustainability information from different sources depending on their attitude towards the information source, which is based on previous experiences, level of knowledge, preference of asset type and level of commitment. Respondents choose sustainable options due to two factors: 1) good long-term returns and 2) strong values. Sustainability reports are used due to two factors: 1) demand for detailed information and 2) the perception that sustainability reporting leads to increased responsibility for companies. However, the respondents find shortcomings in the reports, especially in terms of clarity and reliability. These shortcomings can be partly explained by respondent’s lack of understanding of information as well as companies' attempts to hide underperformance and emphasize positive news. Finally, ESG ratings are mainly used because respondents seek information that is easy to obtain and easy to understand. As was established in relation to sustainability reports, past experiences are also decisive here in the perception of ESG ratings. The respondents who use only ESG ratings have previously had positive experiences such as social confirmation from their surroundings, which then creates the positive attitude towards ESG ratings.   Conclusions: Both sustainability reports and ESG ratings have their advantages and disadvantages, which affects the usability of it among the respondents. The study argues that it is previous experiences that particularly create a specific attitude that give birth to repeated use of information sources as a basis for investment decisions for the respective respondent.

O presente trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar aspectos relevantes da economia internacional. O primeiro ensaio desta tese visou avaliar pela primeira vez (até onde se tem conhecimento) se o recente desenvolvimento do mercado de Credit Default Swaps - CDS alterou os efeitos das mudanças de rating sobre o mercado financeiro.Como o CDS é um derivativo que tem como objetivo refletir a qualidade do crédito do ativo avaliado e esta mensuração é feita através do mercado e de forma contínua no tempo, este instrumento poderia reduzir a relevância dos ratings atribuídos pelas agências; uma vez que estes últimos também avaliam a qualidade do crédito, mas sua atuação é discreta no tempo. Foi empregada a metodologia de estudo de evento a uma base de dados diária de CDS, bolsa e taxas de câmbio para37 países. Em resumo,foram encontradas evidências de que o impacto das mudanças de ratings sobre os ativos financeiros sofreu moderação nos últimos dez anos e que o papel do CDS pode estar por trás desta redução. Além disso, foram encontrados resultados que mostram que o mercado de CDS é o que mais reage a reclassificações de risco. O principal objetivo dos ensaios seguintes é trazer luz ao debate das fontes de competitividade no comércio internacional. Neste sentido, o segundo ensaio trata do papel do custo fixo de entrada para a exportação sobre a competitividade internacional no nível da firma. Foi estimadoo custo médio de entrada para a exportação utilizando o banco de dados do World Bank Enterprise Survey do Banco Mundial que conta com informações de mais de 70 mil firmas de diversos setores de atividade distribuídas em mais de 120 países em desenvolvimento. A pesquisadora se apoiou no modelo e na metodologia desenvolvidos na publicação da Econometrica de Das, Roberts e Tybout (2007) e conclui que em média uma firma paga 3,2 milhões de dólares para começar a exportar. Além disso, encontrou que o custo fixo de entrada para exportação varia entre os países e isso ajuda a explicar porque firmas semelhantes com produtividade parecida instaladas em países diferentes têm probabilidades distintas de serem exportadoras. No terceiro ensaio desta tese, estudou-se o impacto da desoneração da folha de pagamento, implementada a partir de 2011, nas exportações e importações brasileiras. Através de um painel de efeito fixo para produto, relacionando as exportações e importações em função da variável desoneração e a da variável de intensidade de mão-de-obra na produção do bem. Os dados foram extraídos do MDIC, da PIA e a variável desoneração foi construída utilizando as diversas leis que, ao longo do tempo, foram ampliando o rol de bens desonerados. Grosso modo, controlando por intensidade de mão-de-obra, encontrou-se que as desonerações foram responsáveis por uma queda da quantidade importada dos bens cujos similares foram desonerados internamente, enquanto que o efeito nas exportações provocou uma queda nos preços dos bens desonerados que não foi compensada por uma elevação na quantidade exportada, o que conjuntamente resultou em uma queda das exportações em valor. / This thesis evaluated some relevant aspects of the international economy. The first chapter evaluatesfor the first time (as far as we know) if the recent development of the credit default swaps market, CDS, has changed the effects of rating reclassifications on the financial market. Given that the price of CDS is driven bythe entity\'s credit quality and it moves continuously over time, this instrument would reduce the significance of ratings assigned by the agencies, since these agencies act discretely over time. We apply the event study methodology to a daily database of CDS, stocks and exchange rates for 37 countries. Generally speaking, we find evidences that the impact of ratings changes on financial assets has moderated over the past decade and that the role of CDS may explain this reduction. Furthermore, we find results that show that the CDS market is more responsive to risk reclassification. The following chapters have the main objective to shed some light on the debate on the sources of competitiveness in international trade. In this sense, the second chapter studies the role of sunk entry cost to export in international competitiveness at firm level. We estimate the average export sunk entry cost using the World Bank Enterprise Survey database of the World Bank that has informations about more than 70 thousand firms spreaded over several activity\'s sectors and more than 120 developing countries. We followed the model and methodology developed by Das, Roberts and Tybout in a paper published in Econometrica in 2007 and we found that a firm, in average, pays 2.3million dollars in order to start exporting. Besides that, we found that the export entry cost varies between countries and this fact helps to explain why similar firms in different countries have different probabilities to become exporters. In the third chapter of this thesis, we present a study on the impact of the payroll tax exemption implemented since 2011 on Brazilian exports and imports. Using a panel of fixed effect for product, we will relate the exports and imports as function of the variable exemption and the variable of labor intensity in the production function of the good. The data were extracted from the MDIC, the PIA and the variable exemption was constructed using the many laws that, over time, were expanding the list of exempted goods. Generally speaking, controlling by labor intensity, we found that the payroll tax exemption was responsible for a drop in the quantity of goods imported from abroad, while the effect on exports led to a drop in the prices of the goods exported, which was not offset by a rise in the quantity exported, resulting in a fall in exports by FOB value.

[pt] O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a relevância de um conjunto inicial de 18 atributos tais como Despesas Financeiras, Receitas e Liquidez Corrente, dentre outros, em relação à classificação de risco (grau) de uma empresa: especulação ou investimento, conforme classificação realizada pela agência Standard & Poor s. Avaliou-se comparativamente a eficácia de métodos lineares e não-lineares de seleção de atributos tais como Análise de Componentes Principais (PCA), Informação Mútua (IM) e Informação Mútua para Seleção de Atributos com Distribuição Uniforme (MIFS-U) e métodos lineares e não-lineares de predição tais como Regressão Múltipla Linear, Discriminante Linear de Fisher e Redes Neurais. Identificou-se através destes métodos e de conhecimento a priori, um conjunto de cinco fatores (atributos) capaz de estimar com alto índice de eficácia se o grau de uma empresa é de investimento ou especulação, a saber: Lucro Líquido, EBIT, Receitas, Valor de Mercado e Setor. / [en] The purpose of this thesis is to analyze and rank the relevancy of 18 variables to S&P corporate ratings grades assignment. Beyond, we predict (classify) the Corporate Grades into two groups - Investment or Speculative. To achieve this goal, we applied and compared linear and non-linear Statistics models and Machine Learning Techniques (Multiple Linear Regression, Linear Fisher´s Discriminant, Neural Networks MLP) and feature selection methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Correlation, Mutual Information (MI) and Mutual Information for Features Selection under Uniform Distribution MIFS-U). The 17 of the initial set of 18 variables are financial variables such as Net Income, Interest Expense and Market Capitalization but one was the corporation´s Sector. Combining linear and nonlinear models and a priori knowledge, we identified a subset of five features (Net Income, EBIT, Total Revenues, Market Capitalization and Sector) that together reached up to 94.32% of success rate for the S&P grade prediction.

O presente trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar aspectos relevantes da economia internacional. O primeiro ensaio desta tese visou avaliar pela primeira vez (até onde se tem conhecimento) se o recente desenvolvimento do mercado de Credit Default Swaps - CDS alterou os efeitos das mudanças de rating sobre o mercado financeiro.Como o CDS é um derivativo que tem como objetivo refletir a qualidade do crédito do ativo avaliado e esta mensuração é feita através do mercado e de forma contínua no tempo, este instrumento poderia reduzir a relevância dos ratings atribuídos pelas agências; uma vez que estes últimos também avaliam a qualidade do crédito, mas sua atuação é discreta no tempo. Foi empregada a metodologia de estudo de evento a uma base de dados diária de CDS, bolsa e taxas de câmbio para37 países. Em resumo,foram encontradas evidências de que o impacto das mudanças de ratings sobre os ativos financeiros sofreu moderação nos últimos dez anos e que o papel do CDS pode estar por trás desta redução. Além disso, foram encontrados resultados que mostram que o mercado de CDS é o que mais reage a reclassificações de risco. O principal objetivo dos ensaios seguintes é trazer luz ao debate das fontes de competitividade no comércio internacional. Neste sentido, o segundo ensaio trata do papel do custo fixo de entrada para a exportação sobre a competitividade internacional no nível da firma. Foi estimadoo custo médio de entrada para a exportação utilizando o banco de dados do World Bank Enterprise Survey do Banco Mundial que conta com informações de mais de 70 mil firmas de diversos setores de atividade distribuídas em mais de 120 países em desenvolvimento. A pesquisadora se apoiou no modelo e na metodologia desenvolvidos na publicação da Econometrica de Das, Roberts e Tybout (2007) e conclui que em média uma firma paga 3,2 milhões de dólares para começar a exportar. Além disso, encontrou que o custo fixo de entrada para exportação varia entre os países e isso ajuda a explicar porque firmas semelhantes com produtividade parecida instaladas em países diferentes têm probabilidades distintas de serem exportadoras. No terceiro ensaio desta tese, estudou-se o impacto da desoneração da folha de pagamento, implementada a partir de 2011, nas exportações e importações brasileiras. Através de um painel de efeito fixo para produto, relacionando as exportações e importações em função da variável desoneração e a da variável de intensidade de mão-de-obra na produção do bem. Os dados foram extraídos do MDIC, da PIA e a variável desoneração foi construída utilizando as diversas leis que, ao longo do tempo, foram ampliando o rol de bens desonerados. Grosso modo, controlando por intensidade de mão-de-obra, encontrou-se que as desonerações foram responsáveis por uma queda da quantidade importada dos bens cujos similares foram desonerados internamente, enquanto que o efeito nas exportações provocou uma queda nos preços dos bens desonerados que não foi compensada por uma elevação na quantidade exportada, o que conjuntamente resultou em uma queda das exportações em valor. / This thesis evaluated some relevant aspects of the international economy. The first chapter evaluatesfor the first time (as far as we know) if the recent development of the credit default swaps market, CDS, has changed the effects of rating reclassifications on the financial market. Given that the price of CDS is driven bythe entity\'s credit quality and it moves continuously over time, this instrument would reduce the significance of ratings assigned by the agencies, since these agencies act discretely over time. We apply the event study methodology to a daily database of CDS, stocks and exchange rates for 37 countries. Generally speaking, we find evidences that the impact of ratings changes on financial assets has moderated over the past decade and that the role of CDS may explain this reduction. Furthermore, we find results that show that the CDS market is more responsive to risk reclassification. The following chapters have the main objective to shed some light on the debate on the sources of competitiveness in international trade. In this sense, the second chapter studies the role of sunk entry cost to export in international competitiveness at firm level. We estimate the average export sunk entry cost using the World Bank Enterprise Survey database of the World Bank that has informations about more than 70 thousand firms spreaded over several activity\'s sectors and more than 120 developing countries. We followed the model and methodology developed by Das, Roberts and Tybout in a paper published in Econometrica in 2007 and we found that a firm, in average, pays 2.3million dollars in order to start exporting. Besides that, we found that the export entry cost varies between countries and this fact helps to explain why similar firms in different countries have different probabilities to become exporters. In the third chapter of this thesis, we present a study on the impact of the payroll tax exemption implemented since 2011 on Brazilian exports and imports. Using a panel of fixed effect for product, we will relate the exports and imports as function of the variable exemption and the variable of labor intensity in the production function of the good. The data were extracted from the MDIC, the PIA and the variable exemption was constructed using the many laws that, over time, were expanding the list of exempted goods. Generally speaking, controlling by labor intensity, we found that the payroll tax exemption was responsible for a drop in the quantity of goods imported from abroad, while the effect on exports led to a drop in the prices of the goods exported, which was not offset by a rise in the quantity exported, resulting in a fall in exports by FOB value.

Thesis (M. Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2021 / The main aim of the study is to analyze determinants of sovereign credit ratings (SCRs) for Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, namely Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia. The analysis is based on the SCRs given by Standard and Poor’s (S&P). The selected explanatory variables are gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, inflation, external debt, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and control of corruption for the period 1990-2016, based on annual data. The panel root test results, namely IPS, LLC, ADF Fisher and PP Fisher, show that GDP per capita, external debt and FDI are stationary at 5% level of significance. The Hausman test results indicates that the identified explanatory variable explains 80% of SCRs. The model observed a positive relationship between SCR, inflation and control of corruption. It also observed a negative correlation between SCR, GDP per capita, external debt and FDI. The Pedroni residual cointegration test results indicate that there is no long-run relationship among variables and no autocorrelation as shown by serial correlation LM test results. The study recommends that the selected member states of SADC develop strategic plans for reducing budget deficits. This will help countries to manage their debts, especially foreign currency denoted debt and to attract foreign investment. Keywords: Sovereign credit ratings, fixed effects model, random effects, Hausman test.

No description available.

Morningstar ratings are a popular way for investors to compare mutual funds. This thesis focuses on Swedish domestic equity funds. The relation of Morningstar ratings and fund flows was studied. Additionally, the short-term performance predictability using star ratings was investigated. This study found that top rated funds using Morningstar ratings received a higher fraction of positive fund flows compared to top rated funds ranked using past returns, Sharpe ratio, or Carhart's four-factor alpha. This provides some evidence towards Swedish investors using Morningstar ratings over other measures when selecting mutual funds. Additionally, all four measures performed poorly when used to predict one-, three- and twelve-month future fund flows, with no model being able to explain more than 7% of the variance in the data (measured in adjusted R-squared). Finally, the predictive power of Morningstar rating in respect to future outperformance (measured in Carhart's four-factor alpha) was evaluated. While all star ratings were statistically significant predictors, no model managed to explain more than 17% of the data's variance. Thus, Morningstar ratings were not found to be a good predictor of future outperformance. / Morningstar Ratings är ett populärt sätt för investerare att jämföra fonder. Denna uppsats fokuserar på svenska fonder som investerar på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Sambandet mellan Morningstar Ratings och fondflöden studerades. Även förmågan att på kort sikt förutsäga fonders prestation genom att använda deras Morningstar Rating undersöktes. Denna studie fann att topprankade fonder utifrån Morningstars prestationsmått fick en högre andel av positiva inflöden än om fonderna rankades efter tidigare avkastning, Sharpekvot eller Carharts alfa. Detta ger begränsat stöd till att svenska investerare använder Morningstar Ratings över andra prestationsmått vid val av fonder. Dessutom hade alla mått låg förklarande förmåga för framtida fondflöden över en, tre och tolv månader. Ingen modell kunde förklara mer än 7% av variansen i fondflödena (mätt i justerad R2). Till sist utvärderades förmågan att förutsäga framtida (Carharts) alfa genom Morningstar Rating. Trots att Morningstar Ratings kunde anses vara statistiskt viktiga för modellen, lyckades ingen modell förklara mer än 17% av variansen i alfa. Således kunde inte Morningstar Ratings anses vara en bra prediktor för framtida alfa.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Psychology / Richard J. Harris / Systems that support or require human interaction are generally easier to learn, use, and remember when their organization is consistent with the user’s knowledge and experiences (Norman, 1983; Roske-Hofstrand & Paap, 1986). Thus, in order for interface designers to truly design for the user, they must first have a way of deriving a representation of what the user knows about the domain of interest. The current study evaluated three techniques for eliciting knowledge structures for how General Aviation pilots think about weather information. Weather was chosen because of its varying implications for pilots of different levels of experience. Two elicitation techniques (Relationship Judgment and Card Sort) asked pilots to explicitly consider the relationship between 15 weather-related information concepts. The third technique, Prime Recognition Task, used response times and priming to implicitly reflect the strength of relationship between concepts in semantic memory. Techniques were evaluated in terms of pilot performance, conceptual structure validity, and required resources for employment. Validity was assessed in terms of the extent to which each technique identified differences in organization of weather information among pilots of different experience levels. Multidimensional scaling was used to transform proximity data collected by each technique into conceptual structures representing the relationship between concepts. Results indicated that Card Sort was the technique that most consistently tapped into knowledge structure affected by experience. Only conceptual structures based on Card Sort data were able to be used to both discriminate between pilots of different experience levels and accurately classify experienced pilots as “experienced”. Additionally, Card Sort was the most efficient and effective technique to employ in terms of preparation time, time on task, flexibility, and face validity. The Card Sort provided opportunities for deliberation, revision, and visual feedback that allowed the pilots to engage in a deeper level of processing at which experience may play a stronger role. Relationship Judgment and Prime Recognition Task characteristics (e.g., time pressure, independent judgments) may have motivated pilots to rely on a more shallow or text-based level of processing (i.e., general semantic meaning) that is less affected by experience. Implications for menu structure design and assessment are discussed.