A central issue in climate change research is to identify what species will be most affected by variations in temperature, precipitation or CO2 and via which underlying mechanisms. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been used to address questions of habitat shifts, extinctions and changes in carbon and nutrient cycling. However, DGVMs have been criticized for assuming full migration and using the most generic of plant functional types (PFTs) to describe vegetation cover. My doctoral research addresses both of these concerns. In the first study, I added two new tropical PFTs to an existing regional model (LPJ-GUESS) to improve vegetation representation in Central America. Although there was an improvement in the representation of some biomes such as the pine-oak forests, LPJ-GUESS was still unable to capture the distribution of arid ecosystems. The model representations of fire, soil, and processes unique to desert vegetation are discussed as possible explanations. The remaining three chapters deal with the assumption of full migration, where plants can arrive at any location regardless of distance or physical barriers. Using LPJ-GUESS, I imposed migration limitations by using fat-tailed seed dispersal kernels. I used three temperate tree species with different life history strategies to test the new dispersal functionality. Simulated migration rates for Acer rubrum (141 m year-1) and Pinus rigida (76 m year-1) correspond well to pollen and genetic reconstructed rates. However, migration rates for Tsuga canadensis (85 m year-1) were considerably slower than historical rates. A sensitivity analysis showed that maturation age is the most important parameter for determining rates of spread, but it is the dispersal kernel which determines if there is any long distance dispersal or not. The final study demonstrates how northerly refugia populations could have impacted landscape recolonization following the retreat of the last glacier. Using three species with known refugia (Acer rubrum, Fagus grandifolia, Picea glauca), colonization rates were faster with a northerly refugia population present. The number of refugia locations also had a positive effect on landscape recolonization rates, which was most pronounced when populations were separated. The results from this thesis illustrate the improvements made in vegetation-climate models, giving us increasing confidence in the quality of future climate change predictions.

Anthropogenic influences and climate change are warming rivers in New Brunswick and threatening the cold water habitats of native salmonids. When ambient river temperatures in summer exceed the tolerance level of Atlantic salmon and brook trout, individuals behaviourally thermoregulate by seeking out cold water refugia. These critical thermal habitats are often created by tributaries and concentrated groundwater discharge. Thermal infrared imagery was used to map cold water anomalies along a 53 km reach of the Cains River on 23 July 2008. Although efficient and useful for mapping surface temperature of a continuous stream reach, the fish did not use all identified thermal anomalies as refugia. Overall, 100 % of observed large brook trout >35 cm in length were found in 30 % of the TIR-mapped cold water anomalies. Ninety eight percent of observed small brook trout 8 – 30 cm in length were found in 80 % of the mapped cold water anomalies and their densities within anomalies were significantly higher than densities outside of anomalies. Fifty nine percent of observed salmon parr were found in 65 % of the mapped anomalies; however, they were dispersed within study sites and their densities were not significantly different within anomalies compared to outside of the anomalies. No brook trout were observed at the seven noncold water study sites that were investigated. Preference curves for various habitat variables including velocity, temperature, depth, substrate, and deep water availability near cold water anomalies were developed based on field investigations during high temperature events (ambient river temperature >21 oC). Combined with thermal imagery, managers can use the physical descriptions of thermal refugia developed here as a tool to help conserve and restore critical thermal refugia for Atlantic salmon and brook trout on the Cains River, and potentially similar river systems.

A central issue in climate change research is to identify what species will be most affected by variations in temperature, precipitation or CO2 and via which underlying mechanisms. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been used to address questions of habitat shifts, extinctions and changes in carbon and nutrient cycling. However, DGVMs have been criticized for assuming full migration and using the most generic of plant functional types (PFTs) to describe vegetation cover. My doctoral research addresses both of these concerns. In the first study, I added two new tropical PFTs to an existing regional model (LPJ-GUESS) to improve vegetation representation in Central America. Although there was an improvement in the representation of some biomes such as the pine-oak forests, LPJ-GUESS was still unable to capture the distribution of arid ecosystems. The model representations of fire, soil, and processes unique to desert vegetation are discussed as possible explanations. The remaining three chapters deal with the assumption of full migration, where plants can arrive at any location regardless of distance or physical barriers. Using LPJ-GUESS, I imposed migration limitations by using fat-tailed seed dispersal kernels. I used three temperate tree species with different life history strategies to test the new dispersal functionality. Simulated migration rates for Acer rubrum (141 m year-1) and Pinus rigida (76 m year-1) correspond well to pollen and genetic reconstructed rates. However, migration rates for Tsuga canadensis (85 m year-1) were considerably slower than historical rates. A sensitivity analysis showed that maturation age is the most important parameter for determining rates of spread, but it is the dispersal kernel which determines if there is any long distance dispersal or not. The final study demonstrates how northerly refugia populations could have impacted landscape recolonization following the retreat of the last glacier. Using three species with known refugia (Acer rubrum, Fagus grandifolia, Picea glauca), colonization rates were faster with a northerly refugia population present. The number of refugia locations also had a positive effect on landscape recolonization rates, which was most pronounced when populations were separated. The results from this thesis illustrate the improvements made in vegetation-climate models, giving us increasing confidence in the quality of future climate change predictions.

Genetically modified (GM) crops developed for insect control express cry genes from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). These genes produce target specific insecticidal proteins that protect the plant against insect pest attacks throughout the growing season. The largest threat to the continued success of these insecticidal GM crops is the potential development of target pest resistance. Models and theories suggested several possible strategies to delay the development of resistance. Of these strategies the high-dose/refuge strategy was selected as the optimal insect resistance management (IRM) option and is currently implemented throughout the world. The high-dose/refuge strategy comprises planting Bt maize plants that produce high doses of the toxin and non-Bt plants (refugia) in close proximity to one another. The theory behind this strategy is that the high dose of toxin kills nearly all the individuals of the target pest while the refuge area sustains susceptible pest individuals that survive on the crop and mate with survivors on the Bt crop. Recent reports of resistance development to Bt crops has raised questions about the refuge concept. In the cases where resistance has developed it was largely ascribed to non- compliance to the prescribed refuge requirements or non-functionality of the refuge approach. The Bt crops used throughout the world were developed in North America against the insect pests that occur there. Since there are differences in the lifecycles and behaviour of insect species targeted by Bt crops the refuge areas also needs to be specified for different target pests. For example, the currently used IRM strategies do not differentiate between polyphagous and monophagous pests and also do not take into account differences that exist in biology and behaviour of different pest species. These IRM strategies have also been developed mainly with large scale commercial farming systems in mind and do not take into account farming systems in developing countries. Current IRM strategies need to be revised and adapted for use by small-scale African farmers. / Thesis (MSc (Environmental Sciences))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

Genetically modified (GM) crops developed for insect control express cry genes from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). These genes produce target specific insecticidal proteins that protect the plant against insect pest attacks throughout the growing season. The largest threat to the continued success of these insecticidal GM crops is the potential development of target pest resistance. Models and theories suggested several possible strategies to delay the development of resistance. Of these strategies the high-dose/refuge strategy was selected as the optimal insect resistance management (IRM) option and is currently implemented throughout the world. The high-dose/refuge strategy comprises planting Bt maize plants that produce high doses of the toxin and non-Bt plants (refugia) in close proximity to one another. The theory behind this strategy is that the high dose of toxin kills nearly all the individuals of the target pest while the refuge area sustains susceptible pest individuals that survive on the crop and mate with survivors on the Bt crop. Recent reports of resistance development to Bt crops has raised questions about the refuge concept. In the cases where resistance has developed it was largely ascribed to non- compliance to the prescribed refuge requirements or non-functionality of the refuge approach. The Bt crops used throughout the world were developed in North America against the insect pests that occur there. Since there are differences in the lifecycles and behaviour of insect species targeted by Bt crops the refuge areas also needs to be specified for different target pests. For example, the currently used IRM strategies do not differentiate between polyphagous and monophagous pests and also do not take into account differences that exist in biology and behaviour of different pest species. These IRM strategies have also been developed mainly with large scale commercial farming systems in mind and do not take into account farming systems in developing countries. Current IRM strategies need to be revised and adapted for use by small-scale African farmers. / Thesis (MSc (Environmental Sciences))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

Thesis (M.A.P.S.)--Catholic Theological Union at Chicago, 2001. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves [66]-67).

Thesis (M.A.P.S.)--Catholic Theological Union at Chicago, 2001. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves [66]-67).

Orientador: Odair Aparecido Fernandes / Banca: José Alexandre Freitas Barrigossi / Banca: Leila Lucci Dinardo-Miranda / Resumo: A broca-da-cana, Diatraea saccharalis (Fabr.), é a uma das pragas mais importantes da cana-de-açúcar no Brasil. Para o sucesso na utilização de plantas geneticamente modificadas visando o controle deste inseto, faz-se necessário conhecer sua dispersão. Estudos da dinâmica de vôo também podem ajudar na compreensão do comportamento do inseto, e de suas interações ecológicas. O estudo da dispersão de D. saccharalis foi possível através da marcação, liberação e captura dos machos adultos. A marcação foi realizada por meio da incorporação de corante lipossolúvel à dieta das larvas. As armadilhas de feromônio foram dispostas nos talhões de cana-de-açúcar nos sentidos norte, sul, leste e oeste, circundando o ponto de liberação. Os resultados obtidos mostram que mais de 45 % dos machos marcados capturados permaneceram nas áreas mais próximas ao ponto de liberação. Fatores climáticos como a temperatura, umidade relativa, velocidade do vento e precipitação não interferem decisivamente na captura dos machos liberados e dos machos do campo. A direção do vento exerce um papel fundamental na dispersão de D. saccharalis, uma vez que a maioria dos insetos voou a favor do vento. O modelo mais adequado para explicar a relação entre a distância de vôo e o número de indivíduos capturados é dado por y = a2/(1+(2a1,8bx))2,6. Com isso, para o manejo de resistência de D. saccharalis em cultivos de cana-de-açúcar geneticamente modificada expressando proteínas de Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner, deve se manter no máximo 800 m de distância entre as áreas de refúgio / Abstract: The sugarcane borer, Diatraea saccharalis (Fabr.), is one of the most important sugarcane pests in Brazil. For a successful utilization of genetically modified crops aiming at the control of this insect, it is necessary to know its dispersal. Studies of flight dynamics can also help understand the insect's behavior and its ecological interactions. The study of D. saccharalis dispersal was possible through labeling, releasing and capturing adult males. Labeling was performed by incorporating oil soluble dyes into the larval diet. The pheromone traps were placed in a sugarcane field following the cardinal directions (North, South, East, West) around the release site. The results showed that more than 45 % of the labeled males were captured closer to the release site. Climatic factors such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and rain do not affect decisively in the release or wild males capture. The wind direction is important in D. saccharalis dispersal, once the majority of insects flew towards the wind. The most adequate model to explain the relationship between flight distance and number of captured insects is y = a2/(1+(2a1,8bx))2,6. Thus, for resistance management of D. saccharalis in genetically modified sugarcane expressing Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner proteins, the refugia sites should be kept at most 800 m apart / Mestre

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:25:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2010-02-22Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:11:55Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 caixeta_df_me_jabo.pdf: 1848611 bytes, checksum: 79743f9ce966451f4711dc33bf6a1398 (MD5) / A broca-da-cana, Diatraea saccharalis (Fabr.), é a uma das pragas mais importantes da cana-de-açúcar no Brasil. Para o sucesso na utilização de plantas geneticamente modificadas visando o controle deste inseto, faz-se necessário conhecer sua dispersão. Estudos da dinâmica de vôo também podem ajudar na compreensão do comportamento do inseto, e de suas interações ecológicas. O estudo da dispersão de D. saccharalis foi possível através da marcação, liberação e captura dos machos adultos. A marcação foi realizada por meio da incorporação de corante lipossolúvel à dieta das larvas. As armadilhas de feromônio foram dispostas nos talhões de cana-de-açúcar nos sentidos norte, sul, leste e oeste, circundando o ponto de liberação. Os resultados obtidos mostram que mais de 45 % dos machos marcados capturados permaneceram nas áreas mais próximas ao ponto de liberação. Fatores climáticos como a temperatura, umidade relativa, velocidade do vento e precipitação não interferem decisivamente na captura dos machos liberados e dos machos do campo. A direção do vento exerce um papel fundamental na dispersão de D. saccharalis, uma vez que a maioria dos insetos voou a favor do vento. O modelo mais adequado para explicar a relação entre a distância de vôo e o número de indivíduos capturados é dado por y = a2/(1+(2a1,8bx))2,6. Com isso, para o manejo de resistência de D. saccharalis em cultivos de cana-de-açúcar geneticamente modificada expressando proteínas de Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner, deve se manter no máximo 800 m de distância entre as áreas de refúgio / The sugarcane borer, Diatraea saccharalis (Fabr.), is one of the most important sugarcane pests in Brazil. For a successful utilization of genetically modified crops aiming at the control of this insect, it is necessary to know its dispersal. Studies of flight dynamics can also help understand the insect’s behavior and its ecological interactions. The study of D. saccharalis dispersal was possible through labeling, releasing and capturing adult males. Labeling was performed by incorporating oil soluble dyes into the larval diet. The pheromone traps were placed in a sugarcane field following the cardinal directions (North, South, East, West) around the release site. The results showed that more than 45 % of the labeled males were captured closer to the release site. Climatic factors such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and rain do not affect decisively in the release or wild males capture. The wind direction is important in D. saccharalis dispersal, once the majority of insects flew towards the wind. The most adequate model to explain the relationship between flight distance and number of captured insects is y = a2/(1+(2a1,8bx))2,6. Thus, for resistance management of D. saccharalis in genetically modified sugarcane expressing Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner proteins, the refugia sites should be kept at most 800 m apart

Le changement climatique devrait causer un déclin des populations d'arbres forestiers résidant à des faibles latitudes, en marges chaudes de la distribution de l’espèce. En effet, le réchauffement et le stress dû au changement de l'équilibre hydrique devraient entraîner une réduction de la croissance et de la reproduction des arbres, et une augmentation de la mortalité. Cette thèse de doctorat étudie la structure démographique et génétique d'une population naturelle de hêtre (Fagus sylvatica) située dans un refuge climatique, en marge chaude de la distribution de l’espèce dans le sud-est de la France. Cette population persiste sur les pentes des gorges karstiques le long d’une rivière, le Ciron (Gironde), un lieu qui hébergeait déjà des hêtres pendant la dernière période glaciaire. L'objectif général de la présente thèse est de mieux comprendre comment cette population de refuge climatique a réussi à persister à travers les changements climatiques passés et comment elle pourrait répondre au réchauffement climatique. Le premier chapitre de thèse évalue la structure et la diversité génétique de l'ensemble de la population d'arbres adultes (n = 932) afin d’inférer son histoire postglaciaire. L'étude révèle que la population se compose de deux clusters génétiques avec différents niveaux de diversité. Cela peut refléter une population locale ancienne qui a été successivement colonisée par des génotypes d'immigrés. Le deuxième chapitre de la thèse étudie le système d'accouplement et les modèles de mouvement du pollen au sein de la population. Cela était possible en analysant les progénitures de graines provenant d'arbres mères sélectionnés (n = 30) tout le long de la population. L’étude montre que l'accouplement prédominant entre voisins génétiquement apparentés a entraîné une structure génétique spatiale très forte. Ce phénomène aide à expliquer le brassage lent des deux clusters génétiques présents dans la population. Le troisième chapitre de la thèse consiste en une analyse dendroécologique basée sur un tiers de la population adulte de hêtres (n = 317), plus 79 chênes pédonculés (Quercus robur) échantillonnés pour la comparaison. Les études sur les cernes annuels et la modélisation basée sur les projections climatiques révèlent que la croissance du hêtre a été relativement peu affectée par des conditions climatiques de plus en plus sèches. Une forte augmentation de la croissance radiale a été démontrée pour le hêtre entre 1860 et 1920 qui a atteint un plateau plus tard. Ensuite, la croissance a légèrement diminué depuis les années 1980, et cela ne sera probablement pas accentué à l’avenir d'après les scénarios climatiques futurs de la région. En outre, les analyses à des échelles fines, y compris les isotopes, montrent une grande hétérogénéité de performance entre les arbres en terme de croissance et d'efficience d'utilisation d’eau. Cela est en partie expliqué par la topographie locale de la vallée refuge, et pourrait également être influencé, dans une faible mesure, par le génotype des arbres.La combinaison des deux approches de recherche, la dendroécologie et l’écologie moléculaire, a permis à cette étude d'atteindre des meilleures connaissances sur cette population particulière de hêtres dans la vallée du Ciron et sur sa performance dans un environnement abiotique contraignant. Ces idées représentent des informations de base précieuses pour la conservation et la gestion de cette population et d'autres populations d'arbres forestiers dans un climat en évolution rapide. / Modern climate change is expected to cause a decline of forest tree populations that reside at the current low-latitude margin of species' ranges. Warming and a changing water balance stress are expected to result in reduced tree growth and reproduction and increasing mortality. This doctorate thesis investigates the demographic and genetic structure of a natural beech (Fagus sylvatica) population located in a climate refugium at the species' xeric range margin in SW France. This population persists on the slopes of a karstic canyon along the Ciron River (Gironde), a place that already harboured beech during the past glacial period. The overall goal of the present thesis is to better understand how this refugial population has managed to persist through past climate changes and how it responds to recent global warming.The first thesis chapter assesses the genetic structure and diversity of the entire adult tree population (n = 932) to infer its postglacial history. The study reveals that the stand consists of two genetic clusters with different levels of diversity, which are likely to reflect an ancient local population that is successively being colonized by immigrant genotypes. The second thesis chapter investigates the mating system and patterns of pollen movement within the population by analysing seed progenies from selected mother trees (n = 30). It shows that predominant mating between genetically related neighbours has resulted in a very strong spatial genetic structure, a phenomenon that helps explain the observed slow admixture of the two genetic clusters present in the population. The third thesis chapter performs an extensive dendroecological analysis based on a third of the adult beech population (n = 317), plus 79 Pedunculate oaks (Quercus robur) sampled for comparison. Tree-ring studies and modeling based on climate projections reveal that beech growth has been so far relatively slightly affected in an increasingly xeric climate conditions. A strong increase in radial growth has been shown for beech between 1860 and 1920 that ceased later on. Then growth has declined imperceptibly since the 1980s without showing any accentuated decreasing according to the future climate scenarios data of the region. Fine-scale analyses including carbon stable isotopes show great among-tree heterogeneity in performance (in terms of growth and water use efficiency) that is partly driven by the fine-scale topography of the refugial habitat and might also be influenced to a small extent by the tree genotype.Its combination of dendroecological and molecular ecological research approaches has enabled the thesis to attain important insights into the special character of the Ciron beech population and its performance within a constraining abiotic environment. Such insights represent valuable background information for the conservation and management of this and other refugial forest tree populations in a rapidly changing climate.