The African Sahel is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate variability at different time scales. It is an arid to semi-arid region with limited water resources. The summer rainfall is one of these sources, but it exhibits pronounced interannual variability. This thesis presents several aspects of Sahelian Sudan rainfall. Sudan is located at the eastern fringe of the Sahel and its least studied part. We have examined the impact of tropical deforestation on the rainfall, the moisture sources of the region and the temporal characteristics of the observed and modeled rainfall. In a sensitivity study we performed three simulations, one control simulation and then setting the surface condition of South Sudan to either grass or desert conditions. The rainfall was reduced by 0.1 − 0.9 in the grass scenario and by 0.1 − 2.1 mm day−1 (hereafter mm d−1) in the desert scenario. These changes also propagated northward into Sahelian Sudan, indicating a remote impact. The total moisture convergence into Sahelian Sudan was reduced by 11.5% and 21.9% for grass and desert conditions, respectively. The change in moisture convergence into the region motivated a comprehensive analysis of the moisture sources for the region. Two different modeling approaches, Lagrangian and Eulerian, were applied to identify the moisture sources and quantify their contributions to the total annual rainfall budget. The analysis shows that atmospheric flows associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), e.g. from Guinea Coast, Central African and Western Sahel, brings about 40% − 50% of the annual moisture supply, while local evaporation adds about 20%. The rest of the moisture comes from the Mediterranean, Arabian Peninsula and the Southern part of the Indian Ocean. While there were differences in the details between the results from the two modeling approaches, they agree on the larger scale results. In an attempt to characterize the temporal character of the rainfall, observed and modeled daily rainfall from different regional climate models was classified into five categories: weak (0.1 −1.0), moderate (&gt;1.0 − 10.0), moderately strong (&gt;10.0 − 20.0), strong (&gt;20.0 − 30.0), and very strong (&gt;30.0) mm d−1. We found that most rain-days were in the weak to moderate rainfall categories, accounting for 60% − 75%. Days that have strong rainfall represent about 6% of the total rain-days, yet they represent about 28% − 48% of the total amount of the annual rainfall. Regional climate models fail to produce the strong rainfall, instead most of the modeled rain-days are in the moderate category and consequently the models overestimated the number of rain-days per year. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.</p>

Climate global models have contributed to the understanding of climate changes impacts on several Earth system processes. It is known that impacts on the ocean large scale circulation are considerably relevant. However, these models are not suitable to represent regional scale processes. Therefore, to evaluate the climate change impacts on small scale processes downscaling is necessary. This study was divided in two parts. The first part consists of evaluation and understanding of the behavior of the Southern Ocean circulation from a large scale perspective. For this, we used the ocean component (Parallel Ocean Program version 2 - POP2) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 (NCAR-CESM1.0). The second part aimed to evaluate the Antarctic Coastal Current (ACoC) in the Weddell Sea through high-resolution regional simulations with the Regional Ocean model System (ROMS) which were forced with results from NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (NCAR-CCSM3), an earlier version of NCAR-CESM1, experiments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4). The first simulation was forced with 20th century historical scenario (ROMS-20C3M) and comprises the 1980 to 1999 period, whereas the second run considers the 21st century scenario A2 (ROMS-SRESA2) which comprises the 2021 to 2047 period. Results from CESM1-POP2 represents satisfactorily the large scale mean patterns and is in agreement with available data. The results show the limitation of these models to reproduce important features of the coastal region, which makes downscaling necessary to understanding smaller scale processes. The ACoC and its transport (&#8776; 22 Sv) were satisfactorily represented by regional simulations. From the 20th to 21st century projections, weakening of the ACoC transport was observed and shown to be mainly related with changes in the termohaline forcing. / A utilização de modelos climáticos globais tem contribuído para o entendimento dos efeitos da mudança no clima em diversos processos do sistema terrestre. Os impactos na circulação oceânica de larga escala são conhecidamente relevantes. Porém, esses modelos não são adequados para a representação de processos na escala regional. Dessa forma, para avaliar os impactos da mudança do clima nos processos de menor escala a regionalização numérica é necessária. Este trabalho foi dividido em duas partes. A primeira consiste na avaliação e entendimento do comportamento da circulação no Oceano Austral do ponto de vista da larga escala. Para isso a componente oceânica (Parallel Ocean Program version 2 - POP2) do National Center for Atmospheric Research - Community Earth System Model version 1 (NCAR-CESM1.0) foi utilizada. A segunda parte teve como objetivo avaliar as mudanças na Corrente Costeira Antártica (CCoA) no Mar de Weddell através de simulações regionais de alta resolução com o Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) forçados com dois experimentos do NCAR - Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (NCAR-CCSM3) para os cenários do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4). A primeira simulação foi forçada com o cenário histórico do século XX (ROMS-20C3M) e compreende o período de 1980 a 1999, já a segunda considera o cenário pessimista A2 (ROMS-SRESA2) para o século XXI e compreende o período de 2021 a 2047. Os resultados obtidos do CESM1-POP2 mostraram que o modelo representa de forma satisfatória os padrões de larga escala e concordam com os dados disponíveis. Os resultados também evidenciam a limitação de modelos como esse em reproduzir características importantes da região costeira, o que torna necessário a reginoalização para o entendimento dos processos de menor escala. Os resultados das simulações regionais reproduziram de forma consistente a CCoA e o seu transporte (&#8776; 22 Sv). Do cenário do século XX para o do século XXI houve um enfraquecimento do transporte da CCoA, que mostrou estar relacionado principalmente à mudanças na forçante termohalina.

The object of research is the process of reforming public administration of employment in the Russian Federation. The purpose of the study is the theoretical and practical justification of methods for reforming public administration of employment and the development of proposals to improve the effectiveness of these methods. The main research methods were the comparative legal method, the method of analysis of statistical data, the methods of sociological research, as well as the design method. In the process of research, the current development of public administration was analyzed, both in Russia and, in particular, in the Sverdlovsk region, the main trends and development problems were identified, the reasons for their occurrence were identified. The result of this work was the development of directions for the further reform of public administration of employment in the Sverdlovsk region. / Объектом исследования является процесс реформирования государственного управления занятостью населения в Российской Федерации. Цель исследования заключается в теоретическом и практическом обосновании методы реформирования государственного управления занятостью населения и разработки предложения по повышению эффективности данных методов. Основными методами проведения исследования стали сравнительной-правовой метод, метод анализа статистических данных, методы социологического исследования, а также метод проектирования. В процессе исследований было проанализировано текущее развитие государственного управления, как в России, так и в частности, в Свердловской области, выявлены основные тренды и проблемы развития, установлены причины их возникновения. Результатом проведенной работы стала разработка направлений развития дальнейшего реформирования государственного управления занятостью населения в Свердловской области.

Yes / This paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather's prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model's input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 "Improvement of operational models'' of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 "Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe'' and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action.