This thesis includes three substantive empirical studies (in Chapters 3, 4 and 5), where each study uses the same econometric methodology, named Regression Discontinuity design, which has an attractive feature - local randomisation. This feature has given the superiority of the method over the other evaluation methods in estimating unbiased treatment effects. Besides, the fuzzy Regression Discontinuity design can control for the endogeneity of the treatment variable, which is another advantage of the method. In each of the studies considered, the endogeneity problem exists. The application of the fuzzy Regression Discontinuity design is itself a contribution in each of the studies. Moreover, each study contributes in its own field. In Chapter 3, we investigate how much the Social Safety Net programs, that provide free food, or cash, or both to the food insecure households in Bangladesh, improve calorie consumption of the beneficiary households. Using Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2005, we find that the effect of the programs is around 843 kilo calorie, which is substantial compared to the previous studies. In Chapter 4, we examine how much was the impact of Education Maintenance Allowance, a program that provided weekly allowance to the young people in Years 12 and 13 in England, on the staying rate in the post compulsory full-time education. The program was abolished in 2010. Using the Longitudinal Survey of Young People in England, we find that the effect of the program was substantial - around 15 percent. The effect of a £1 increase in weekly allowance was around 1 percent. These effects were mainly on the white young people. Using the household survey data - Family Expenditure Survey (1968-2009) - in UK, Chapter 5 establishes that before 1981 consumption substantially fell at the retirement age. This fall is less severe after 1980. However, throughout the data period, consumption fall at the retirement age is fully explained by the expected fall in income, which contradicts the life cycle model, where a consumption growth is independent of an income growth.

This dissertation studies household income and consumption. In the first chapter, I identify the causal effect of retirement on health service utilization in China. In the second chapter, I investigates the impact that retirement has on the family support network of “sandwich” generations in China. In the third chapter, I propose a new estimator for linear quantile regression models with generated regressors, and apply it to study Engel curves for various commodity consumption for families in the UK. In the first chapter, I apply a regression discontinuity design by exploiting the exogenous mandatory retirement age rules in China in order to identify the causal effect of retirement on health service utilization. In China, the social insurance Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) provision continues after individuals retire. Employees, however, stop paying the premium and enjoy reduced cost sharing after they retire. Individual medical expenses, insurance costs, and benefits are recorded in the China Household Finance Survey 2013 (CHFS). Significantly, males and females respond differently to this decrease in the relative price of health insurance at the time of retirement. Females are generally more willing to increase their out-of-pocket expenditures in order to take advantage of better health insurance benefits and utilize more medical care. Males, by contrast, do not respond to this change in relative price in the same manner. In the second chapter, I investigates the impact that retirement has on the family support networks of “sandwich” generations in China. These middle-aged households have an inter-generational support network that includes both upward transfers (their parents or parents-in-law), as well as downward transfers (their children). I use micro data from CHARLS (China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study) concerning middle-aged and elderly households in order to evaluate the changes that retirement can have on this family support network, primarily by exploiting the exogenous mandatory retirement age rules in China. I make the identifying assumption that inter-generational transfers would evolve more smoothly if households would not retire and apply a regression discontinuity approach. I find that retirement induces “sandwich” generations to switch roles in the private network as well as in the public transfer channel; indeed, is 55 percentage point more likely that households will switch from resource providers to resource recipients in the channel of private transfers. In addition, these “sandwich” generations are about 47 percentage point more likely to receive money from their non-coresident children when they retire. In the third chapter, we studies estimation and inference for linear quantile regression models with generated regressors. We suggest a practical two-step estimation procedure, where the generated regressors are computed in the first step. The asymptotic properties of the two-step estimator, namely, consistency and asymptotic normality are established. We show that the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix needs to be adjusted to account for the first-step estimation error. We propose a general estimator for the asymptotic variance-covariance, establish its consistency, and develop testing procedures for linear hypotheses in these models. Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the estimation and inference procedures are provided. Finally, we apply the proposed methods to study Engel curves for various commodities using data from the UK Family Expenditure Survey. We document strong heterogeneity in the estimated Engel curves along the conditional distribution of the budget share of each commodity. The empirical application also emphasizes that correctly estimating confidence intervals for the estimated Engel curves by the proposed estimator is of importance for inference.

Nas últimas décadas diversas reformas no financiamento da educação foram realizadas no Brasil e no exterior, além da adoção de políticas públicas de transferências de recursos, almejando melhorar o desempenho dos alunos e a qualidade da educação. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o impacto dos programas de descentralização de gasto público na educação, sobre a variação do desempenho obtido na Prova Brasil entre os anos de 2005 e 2007, pelas escolas públicas da rede de ensino fundamental da Prefeitura do Município de São Paulo. Analisamos o Programa Dinheiro Direto na Escola (PDDE), criado pelo governo federal em 1995, além do Programa de Transferência de Renda Financeira (PTRF), implantado no final de 2005 pela Prefeitura do Município de São Paulo. Esses programas transferem recursos financeiros diretamente para as escolas, que tem o poder de decidir como utilizar esses repasses. Os dois programas possuem múltiplos pontos de corte, conforme o número de matrículas, para efeito de determinação do valor das transferências de recursos. Em uma primeira abordagem, são calculadas as médias da variação da nota das escolas em torno dos pontos de corte. Para o PTRF são observadas melhores variações de nota, para as escolas nas faixas superiores de tratamento, principalmente para a 4ª série, já para o PDDE os resultados não indicam efeitos positivos de mudança de faixa de tratamento. Empregando a metodologia de mínimos quadrados ordinários, apenas o coeficiente do valor per capita do PTRF apresentou efeito positivo e significativo sobre a variação da nota da Prova Brasil. Posteriormente, com a regressão descontínua Sharp paramétrica e não-paramétrica, são obtidos resultados positivos para as variações das notas da Prova Brasil da 4ª e 8ª série, caso as escolas estejam no início de uma faixa de tratamento superior do PTRF. Para o PDDE, poucos casos apresentaram impactos positivos e significativos; quando acontece a alteração de faixa de tratamento, alguns resultados obtidos sugerem que o programa federal não possui efeito. / In recent decades various reforms in education funding were implemented in Brazil and abroad, beyond the adoption of public transfers of resources, aiming to improve student achievement and education quality and student performance. This paper evaluates the impact of decentralization programs of public spending in education, about the variation of performance in standardized test (Prova Brasil) between 2005 and 2007, the public school system of elementary education belonging São Paulo municipal administration. We analyzed the Programa Dinheiro Direto na Escola (PDDE), created by the federal government in 1995, and Programa de Transferência de Renda Financeira (PTRF), implemented in late 2005 by the São Paulo municipal administration. These programs transfer financial resources directly to schools, which has the power to decide how to use these transfers. Both programs have multiple cut points, according to enrollment, to determine the value of the distribution of resources. In a first approach, the averages are calculated varying the note of a fixed amount of schools near the cutoff. For PTRF and are best observed variations of note, top bands from schools in treatment mainly for the 4th grade, as for the PDDE, the results do not indicate positive effects of changing band treatment. Employing the method of ordinary least square, only the coefficient of per capita value for PTRF showed positive and significant effect on the variation of the note in standardized test. Later, with the regression discontinuity Sharp parametric and nonparametric, positive results are obtained for variations of the notes of standardized test, 4th and 8th grades, where schools are at the beginning of a range of superior treatment of PTRF. For the PDDE, few cases were positive and significant when the change occurs in the range of treatment, some results suggest that federal program has no effect.

Nas últimas décadas diversas reformas no financiamento da educação foram realizadas no Brasil e no exterior, além da adoção de políticas públicas de transferências de recursos, almejando melhorar o desempenho dos alunos e a qualidade da educação. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o impacto dos programas de descentralização de gasto público na educação, sobre a variação do desempenho obtido na Prova Brasil entre os anos de 2005 e 2007, pelas escolas públicas da rede de ensino fundamental da Prefeitura do Município de São Paulo. Analisamos o Programa Dinheiro Direto na Escola (PDDE), criado pelo governo federal em 1995, além do Programa de Transferência de Renda Financeira (PTRF), implantado no final de 2005 pela Prefeitura do Município de São Paulo. Esses programas transferem recursos financeiros diretamente para as escolas, que tem o poder de decidir como utilizar esses repasses. Os dois programas possuem múltiplos pontos de corte, conforme o número de matrículas, para efeito de determinação do valor das transferências de recursos. Em uma primeira abordagem, são calculadas as médias da variação da nota das escolas em torno dos pontos de corte. Para o PTRF são observadas melhores variações de nota, para as escolas nas faixas superiores de tratamento, principalmente para a 4ª série, já para o PDDE os resultados não indicam efeitos positivos de mudança de faixa de tratamento. Empregando a metodologia de mínimos quadrados ordinários, apenas o coeficiente do valor per capita do PTRF apresentou efeito positivo e significativo sobre a variação da nota da Prova Brasil. Posteriormente, com a regressão descontínua Sharp paramétrica e não-paramétrica, são obtidos resultados positivos para as variações das notas da Prova Brasil da 4ª e 8ª série, caso as escolas estejam no início de uma faixa de tratamento superior do PTRF. Para o PDDE, poucos casos apresentaram impactos positivos e significativos; quando acontece a alteração de faixa de tratamento, alguns resultados obtidos sugerem que o programa federal não possui efeito. / In recent decades various reforms in education funding were implemented in Brazil and abroad, beyond the adoption of public transfers of resources, aiming to improve student achievement and education quality and student performance. This paper evaluates the impact of decentralization programs of public spending in education, about the variation of performance in standardized test (Prova Brasil) between 2005 and 2007, the public school system of elementary education belonging São Paulo municipal administration. We analyzed the Programa Dinheiro Direto na Escola (PDDE), created by the federal government in 1995, and Programa de Transferência de Renda Financeira (PTRF), implemented in late 2005 by the São Paulo municipal administration. These programs transfer financial resources directly to schools, which has the power to decide how to use these transfers. Both programs have multiple cut points, according to enrollment, to determine the value of the distribution of resources. In a first approach, the averages are calculated varying the note of a fixed amount of schools near the cutoff. For PTRF and are best observed variations of note, top bands from schools in treatment mainly for the 4th grade, as for the PDDE, the results do not indicate positive effects of changing band treatment. Employing the method of ordinary least square, only the coefficient of per capita value for PTRF showed positive and significant effect on the variation of the note in standardized test. Later, with the regression discontinuity Sharp parametric and nonparametric, positive results are obtained for variations of the notes of standardized test, 4th and 8th grades, where schools are at the beginning of a range of superior treatment of PTRF. For the PDDE, few cases were positive and significant when the change occurs in the range of treatment, some results suggest that federal program has no effect.

Yes / Cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have consistently reported an association between education and myopia. However, conventional observational studies are at risk of bias due to confounding by factors such as socioeconomic position and parental educational attainment. The current study aimed to estimate the causal effect of education on refractive error using regression discontinuity analysis. Methods: Regression discontinuity analysis was applied to assess the influence on refractive error of the raising of the school leaving age (ROSLA) from 15 to 16 years introduced in England and Wales in 1972. For comparison, a conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) analysis was performed. The analysis sample comprised 21,548 UK Biobank participants born in a nine-year interval centered on September 1957, the date of birth of those first affected by ROSLA. Results: In OLS analysis, the ROSLA 1972 reform was associated with a −0.29 D (95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.36 to −0.21, P < 0.001) more negative refractive error. In other words, the refractive error of the study sample became more negative by −0.29 D during the transition from a minimum school leaving age of 15 to 16 years of age. Regression discontinuity analysis estimated the causal effect of the ROSLA 1972 reform on refractive error as −0.77 D (95% CI: −1.53 to −0.02, P = 0.04). Conclusions: Additional compulsory schooling due to the ROSLA 1972 reform was associated with a more negative refractive error, providing additional support for a causal relationship between education and myopia. / Global Education program of the Russian Federation government (DP) and an NIHR Senior Research Fellowship award SRF-2015-08-005 (CW), The Department for Health through an award made by the NIHR to the Biomedical Research Centre at Moorfields Eye Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, and UCL Institute of Ophthalmology, London, United Kingdom (grant no. BRC2_009). Additional support was provided by The Special Trustees of Moorfields Eye Hospital, London, United Kingdom (grant no. ST 12 09)

No description available.

Denna uppsats studerar hur de tillfälliga uppehållstillstånden påverkar nyanländas incitament att ta sig in på den svenska arbetsmarknaden. En av motiveringarna bakom den tillfälliga lagen var – förutom att ge svenskt flyktingmottagande ett andrum – att ge nyanlända personer starkare drivkrafter att komma in på arbetsmarknaden. För att undersöka detta görs en brytpunktsanalys (Regression Discontinuity design) där individer som registrerat sin asylansökan hos Migrationsverket före och efter den 24 november 2015 jämförs. Detta datum avgör om barn och barnfamiljer behandlas enligt den gamla eller den tillfälliga lagen, och därmed om de har möjlighet att få permanenta eller tillfälliga uppehållstillstånd. Resultaten visar att individer på olika sidor om datumgränsen inte verkar skilja sig åt i förutbestämda variabler, vilket tyder på att de inte har haft möjlighet att bestämma vilken sida av datumgränsen de hamnat på. Individer som passerat gränsen har signifikant lägre sannolikhet att få permanenta uppehållstillstånd, minskningen är dock marginell. Det beror troligen på att uppföljningsperioden är kort. Som indikation på hur incitamenten att komma in på arbetsmarknaden påverkas av reformen studeras invandrartäthet samt arbetslöshetsnivå i de län som sökande bor i ett år efter ankomsten. Resultaten tyder på att individer som fick sin ansökan registrerad efter brytpunkten inte bor i län där invandrartätheten eller arbetslösheten är annorlunda. Även detta kan bero på att det än så länge gått för kort tid för att kunna se några effekter. / This paper studies how the temporary residence permits affects immigrants’ incentives to enter the Swedish labor market. One of the reasons behind the adoption of the temporary permits was – in addition to provide Swedish refugee reception a relief – to give immigrants stronger incentives to enter the labor market. To study this, a Regression Discontinuity design study is done, where individuals who had their asylum application registered at the Swedish Migration Agency before and after November 24, 2015 are compared. This date will determine if children and families are treated by the old or the temporary law, and thus if they can get permanent or temporary residence permit.   The results show that individuals on different sides of the dateline do not seem to differ in predetermined variables, suggesting that they have not been able to decide which side of the dateline they are on. Individuals who crossed the threshold are significantly less likely to have permanent residence permits, the decrease is however marginal. This is probably because the follow-up period is short. As an indication of how the incentives to enter the labor market are affected by the reform, immigrant density and unemployment rate in the county that the applicant lives in a year after the arrival is used. The results suggest that individuals who registered their applications after the threshold does not live in counties with a different immigrant density or unemployment rate. This as well can be due to that the follow-up period is short.

Since 1997, fully noncontributory minimum pensions have been established in many Latin American countries, and have more recently been encouraged as a "zero pillar" of social security by the World Bank and other IFIs. These policies came into being under diverse political regimes and display a range of levels of generosity and universality. Becuase these policies are generally part of a modern bureaucratic welfare state project, they require identity documents, something that many low-income citizens do not possess. States have lowered barriers to the supply of identity documents, and new social policies, like noncontributory pensions and conditional or unconditional cash transfers, have stimulated demand for identity documents among those who do not currently have them. Brazils noncontributory pension, the BPC, has a means test and a large benefit (equivalent to the minimum wage), but requires providing identity documents for all household members. This report discusses the propagation of noncontributory pensions, then examines Brazilian government records to determine the size of the incentive to demand documents in Brazil using a logit model and a more novel survival time regression discontinuity design, raising questions of the relationships between benefit size, universality, document requirements, and poverty. / text

Ett sedan länge betraktat problem inom politisk ekonomi är om, och i så fall i vilken utsträckning, politiska partier påverkar ekonomiska policyutfall. Syftet med studien är att undersöka om det rådande politiska majoritetsförhållandet i kommunfullmäktige har en effekt på kostnaderna för och kvaliteten inom en verksamhet som kommit att hamna allt högre på den politiska dagordningen under coronapandemin – äldreomsorgen. Studien tar avstamp i teoretiska utgångspunkter i form av medianväljarteoremet och citizen candidate-modellen. I syfte att estimera effekten av den politiska majoriteten på äldreomsorgen tillämpas en skarp regression discontinuity (RD) design för två kostnadsmått och två kvalitetsmått; antalet fallskador bland personer 80 år och äldre per 1 000 invånare samt brukarbedömning avseende äldreomsorg i särskilt boende. Resultatet visar att en vänsterblocksmajoritet är associerad med drygt 23 procent högre kostnader för äldreomsorg i kronor per invånare samt drygt sex procentenheters lägre nivå i fråga om brukarbedömning än jämfört med andra partikonstellationer. Resultaten är dock inte stabila över olika ekonometriska specifikationer och ytterligare studier skulle därmed behövas för att säkrare kunna belägga ett eventuellt samband.

Regression discontinuity designs are increasingly popular quasi-experimental research designs among applied econometricians desiring to make causal inferences on the local effect of a treatment, intervention, or policy. They are also widely used in social, behavioral, and natural sciences. Much of the existing literature relies on the assumption that the discontinuity point or cutoff is known a-priori, which may not always hold. This thesis seeks to extend the applicability of regression discontinuity designs by proposing a new approach towards detection of an unknown discontinuity point using structural-break detection and machine learning methods. The approach is evaluated on both simulated and real data. Estimation and inference based on estimating the cutoff following this approach are compared to the counterfactual scenario where the cutoff is known. Monte Carlo simulations show that the empirical false-detection and true-detection probabilities of the proposed procedure are generally satisfactory. Finally, the approach is further illustrated with an empirical application. / Graduate