CHAPTER 1:<p>The default g-priors predominant in Bayesian Model Averaging tend to over-concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models - a feature we denote as 'supermodel effect'. To address it, we propose a 'hyper-g' prior specification, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts posterior model distributions to data quality. We demonstrate the asymptotic consistency of the hyper-g prior, and its interpretation as a goodness-of-fit indicator. Moreover, we highlight the similarities between hyper-g and 'Empirical Bayes' priors, and introduce closed-form expressions essential to computationally feasibility. The robustness of the hyper-g prior is demonstrated via simulation analysis, and by comparing four vintages of economic growth data.<p><p>CHAPTER 2:<p>Ciccone and Jarocinski (2010) show that inference in Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) can be highly sensitive to small data perturbations. In particular they demonstrate that the importance attributed to potential growth determinants varies tremendously over different revisions of international income data. They conclude that 'agnostic' priors appear too sensitive for this strand of growth empirics. In response, we show that the found instability owes much to a specific BMA set-up: First, comparing the same countries over data revisions improves robustness. Second, much of the remaining variation can be reduced by applying an evenly 'agnostic', but flexible prior.<p><p>CHAPTER 3:<p>This chapter explores the link between the leverage of the US financial sector, of households and of non-financial businesses, and real activity. We document that leverage is negatively correlated with the future growth of real activity, and positively linked to the conditional volatility of future real activity and of equity returns. <p>The joint information in sectoral leverage series is more relevant for predicting future real activity than the information contained in any individual leverage series. Using in-sample regressions and out-of sample forecasts, we show that the predictive power of leverage is roughly comparable to that of macro and financial predictors commonly used by forecasters. <p>Leverage information would not have allowed to predict the 'Great Recession' of 2008-2009 any better than conventional macro/financial predictors. <p><p>CHAPTER 4:<p>Model averaging has proven popular for inference with many potential predictors in small samples. However, it is frequently criticized for a lack of robustness with respect to prediction and inference. This chapter explores the reasons for such robustness problems and proposes to address them by transforming the subset of potential 'control' predictors into principal components in suitable datasets. A simulation analysis shows that this approach yields robustness advantages vs. both standard model averaging and principal component-augmented regression. Moreover, we devise a prior framework that extends model averaging to uncertainty over the set of principal components and show that it offers considerable improvements with respect to the robustness of estimates and inference about the importance of covariates. Finally, we empirically benchmark our approach with popular model averaging and PC-based techniques in evaluating financial indicators as alternatives to established macroeconomic predictors of real economic activity. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

In the first chapter of this thesis, we investigate the impact of human capital and wage structure on the gender pay in a panel of European countries using a newly available and appropriate database for cross-country comparisons and a comparable methodology for each country. <p><p>Our first question is :What role do certain individual characteristics and choices of working men and women play in shaping the cross-country differences in the gender pay gap? What is the exact size of the gender pay gap using the “more appropriate” database available for our purpose? Giving that there are mainly only two harmonized data-sets for comparing gender pay gap throughout Europe: the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) and the European Structure of Earning Survey (ESES). Each database having its shortages: the main weakness of the ECHP is the lack of perfect reliability of the data in general and of wages in particular. However the main advantage of this database is the panel-data dimension and the information on both households and individuals. The data of the ESES is, on the contrary, of a very high standard but it only covers the private sector and has a cross-sectional dimension. Furthermore only few countries are currently available :Denmark, Belgium, Spain, Ireland and Italy. <p>We use the European Structure of Earning Survey (ESES) to analyse international differences in gender pay gaps in the private sector based on a sample of five European economies: Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Italy and Spain. Using different methods, we examine how wage structures, differences in the distribution of measured characteristics and occupational segregation contribute to and explain the pattern of international differences. Furthermore, we take account of the fact that indirect discrimination may influence female occupational distributions. We find these latter factors to have a significant impact on gender wage differentials. However, the magnitude of their effect varies across countries.<p><p>In the second chapter, we analyse the persistence of the gender pay differentials over time in Europe and better test the productivity hypothesis by taking into account unobserved heterogeneity. <p><p>Our second question is :What is the evolution of the pay differential between men and women over a period of time in Europe? And what is the impact of unobserved heterogeneity? <p>The researcher here provides evidence on the effects of unobserved individual heterogeneity on estimated gender pay differentials. Using the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), we present a cross-country comparison of the evolution of unadjusted and adjusted gender pay gaps using both cross-section and panel-data estimation techniques. The analysed countries differ greatly with respect to labour market legislation, bargaining practices structure of earnings and female employment rates. On adjusting for unobserved heterogeneity, we find a narrowed male-female pay differential, as well as significantly different rates of return on individual characteristics. In particularly, the adjusted wage differential decreases by 7 per cent in Belgium, 14 per cent in Ireland, between 20-30 per cent Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain and of 41 per cent and 54 per cent in the UK and in Denmark respectively. <p><p>In the third chapter, we investigate causes of the gender pay gap beyond the gender differences in observed and unobserved productive characteristics or simply the sex. Explanations of the gender pay gap may be the penalty women face for having children. Obviously, the motherhood wage penalty is relevant to larger issues of gender inequality given that most women are mothers and that childrearing remains a women’s affair. Thus, any penalty associated with motherhood but not with fatherhood affects many women and as such contributes to gender inequalities as the gender pay gap. Furthermore, the motherhood wage effect may be different along the wage distribution as women with different earnings may not be equal in recognising opportunities to reconcile their mother’s and earner’s role. This brings us to our third question. <p><p>Our third question is :What is the wage effect for mothers of young children in the household? And does it vary along the wage distribution of women?<p>This chapter provides more insight into the effect of the presence of young children on women’s wages. We use individual data from the ECHP (1996-2001) and both a generalised linear model (GLM) and quantile regression (QR) techniques to estimate the wage penalty/bonus associated with the presence of children under the age of sixteen for mothers in ten EU Member States. We also correct for potential selection bias using the Heckman (1979) correction term in the GLM (at the mean) and a selectivity correction term in the quantile regressions. To distinguish between mothers according to their age at the time of their first birth, wage estimations are carried out, separately, for mothers who had their first child before the age of 25 (‘young mothers’) and mothers who had their first child after the age of 25 (‘old mothers’). Our results suggest that on average young mothers earn less than non-mothers while old mothers obtain a gross wage bonus in all countries. These wage differentials are mainly due to differences in human capital, occupational segregation and, to a lesser extent, sectoral segregation between mothers and non-mothers. This overall impact of labour market segregation, suggests a “crowding” explanation of the family pay gap – pay differential between mothers and non-mothers. Nevertheless, the fact that we still find significant family pay gaps in some countries after we control for all variables of our model suggests that we cannot reject the “taste-based” explanation of the family gap in these countries. Our analysis of the impact of family policies on the family pay gap across countries has shown that parental leave and childcare policies tend to decrease the pay differential between non-mothers and mothers. Cash and tax benefits, on the contrary, tend to widen this pay differential. Sample selection also affects the level of the mother pay gap at the mean and throughout the wage distribution in most countries. Furthermore, we find that in most countries inter-quantile differences in pay between mothers and non-mothers are mainly due to differences in human-capital. Differences in their occupational and sectoral segregation further shape these wage differentials along the wage distribution in the UK, Germany and Portugal in our sample of young mothers and in Spain in the sample of old mothers.<p><p>In the fourth chapter, we analyse the combined effect of motherhood and the family status on women’s wage.<p> <p>Our fourth question is :Is there a lone motherhood pay gap in Europe? And does it vary along the wage distribution of mothers?<p>Substantial research has been devoted to the analysis of poverty and income gaps between households of different types. The effects of family status on wages have been studied to a lesser extent. In this chapter, we present a selectivity corrected quantile regression model for the lone motherhood pay gap – the differential in hourly wage between lone mothers and those with partners. We used harmonized data from the European Community Household Panel and present results for a panel of European countries. We found evidence of lone motherhood penalties and bonuses. In our analysis, most countries presented higher wage disparities at the top of the wage distribution rather than at the bottom or at the mean. Our results suggest that cross-country differences in the lone motherhood pay gap are mainly due to differences in observed and unobserved characteristics between partnered mothers and lone mothers, differences in sample selection and presence of young children in the household. We also investigated other explanations for these differences such as the availability and level of childcare arrangements, the provision of gender-balanced leave and the level of child benefits and tax incentives. As expected, we have found significant positive relationship between the pay gap between lone and partnered mothers and the childcare, take-up and cash and tax benefits policies. Therefore improving these family policies would reduce the raw pay gap observed. <p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This study aimed to assess the determinants and deterrents of profit shifting, which can occur as a result of corporate income tax competition, with a view to aid in collecting sufficient tax revenue to meet public spending requirements. The study theoretically and empirically analysed the effectiveness of the introduction of the South African transfer pricing regulations on deterring the occurrence of profit shifting in South Africa using annual financial information of South African parented multinational enterprises for the period 2010 – 2017. The study established that the implementation of transfer pricing regulations resulted in a reduction in profit shifting that became increasingly more prominent as the rules became stricter. Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that the South Africa government should allocate sufficient resources to ensure that the transfer pricing regulations are being adhered with an aim to reduce profit shifting from South Africa. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

The study is intended to identify relevant channels and possibly biasing factors with respect to fiscal multipliers, and thus to contribute to improving the precision of multiplier forecasts. This is done by, first, defining the concept of the multiplier used in the present study, presenting the main theoretical channels of influence as discussed in the literature and the problems of empirical identification. Second, by conducting a meta-regression analysis on the reported multipliers from a unique data set of 1069 multiplier observations and the respective study characteristics in order to derive quantitative stylzed facts. Third, by developing a simple multiplier model that explicitly takes into account the time elapse of the multiplier process as an explanatory factor that has been largely overlooked by the relevant theoretical literature. Fourth, by identifying, for US macroeconomic time series data, the extent to which fiscal multiplier estimates could be biased in the presence of financial cycles that have not been taken into account by the relevant empirical literature.:List of Figures IV List of Tables VI List of Acronyms VII List of Symbols IX 1 General Introduction, Aim and Scope 2 Principles of the Measurement, Theory and Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers 2.1 Introduction 7 2.2 Definition and Measurement of the Fiscal Multiplier 7 2.3 Determinants of the Fiscal Multiplier 14 2.4 Principles of Estimating Fiscal Multipliers 29 2.5 Conclusions 38 3 A Meta-Regression Analysis of Fiscal Multipliers 43 3.1 Introduction 43 3.2 Literature Review 45 3.3 Data Set and Descriptive Statistics 49 3.4 Meta Regression—Method 54 3.5 Meta Regression—Moderator Variables 56 3.6 Meta Regression—Results 60 3.7 Conclusions 74 4 The Multiplier Principle, Credit-Money and Time 82 4.1 Introduction 82 4.2 Literature Review 85 4.3 Developing an Augmented Multiplier Model 89 4.4 Dynamic Stability of the Multiplier Process 106 4.5 Identifying the Lag-length 109 4.6 Conclusions 111 5 Financial Cycles and Fiscal Multiplier Estimations 114 5.1 Introduction 114 5.2 Literature Review 116 5.3 Asset and Credit Markets and Fiscal Multiplier Estimations 118 5.4 A Formal Framework 120 5.5 Empirical Strategy 124 5.6 Data 125 5.7 Structure and Identification 126 5.8 Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes—Baseline vs. Augmented Models 132 5.9 Robustness 140 5.10 Conclusions 142 6 General Conclusions and Research Prospects 148 Bibliography 153

Syftet med denna studie är att analysera eventuella kapitalstruktursförändringar i samband med Covid-19 pandemin hos svenska företag noterade på Stockholmsbörsen, OMXS, inom Large Cap. Urvalet utgörs av företag inom alla sektorer i Large Cap, exklusive finanssektorn. Sambandet mellan bolagens beroende och oberoende variabler analyseras före och under pandemins tidsperiod, 2015–2022. De beroende variablerna utgörs som Proxy för kapitalstruktur och omfattas av totala-, kortfristiga-, och långfristiga skulder i förhållande till totala tillgångar. Medan de oberoende variablerna utgörs av företagsstorlek, lönsamhet samt tillväxt. För att uppnå detta baseras uppsatsens teoretiska ramverk på Modigliani och Miller proposition 1 &amp; 2, Pecking Order teorin och Trade Off teorin tillsammans med tidigare empiriska studier samt undersökningar. Uppsatsens analyser omfattas av en deskriptiv analys av samtliga variabler, en korrelationsanalys av de oberoende variablerna och slutligen flera multivariata regressionsanalyser mellan samtliga variabler. För att erhålla de mest valida och reliabla slutsatserna kommer uppsatsen tillämpa en kvantitativ forskningsmetod och en deduktiv ansats. Uppsatsens resultat fann flest statistiskt signifikanta samband mellan samtliga skuldkvoter och företagsstorlek. Uppsatsens slutsats konstaterade att kapitalstrukturen hos OMXS företag inom Large Cap hade förändrats under pandemin i jämförelse med före pandemin. Sammantaget bidrar denna uppsats till en djupare förståelse för sambandet mellan samtliga analyserade variabler baserat på en historisk bakgrund. Därmed kan svenska bolag inom alla sektorer, exklusive finanssektorn, skapa en bättre uppfattning kring sina kapitalstrukturer inför framtida finanskriser. / The purpose of this study is to analyze potential capital structure changes in connection with the Covid-19 pandemic among Swedish publicly traded companies on the Stockholm Stock Exchange, OMXS, within Large Cap. The sample consists of companies across all sectors within Large Cap, excluding the finance sector. Focusing on the relationship between the dependent and independent variables before and during the period of the pandemic, 2015–2022. The dependent variables consist of total-, short- term-, and long- term debt as a proportion to the total assets. These dependent variables constitute as a Proxy for capital structure. The independent variables include size, profitability and growth. To accomplish this, the theoretical framework for this essay is based on Modigliani and Miller proposition 1 &amp; 2, The Pecking Order Theory, The Trade Off Theory along with previous empirical studies. The analyzes contains of a descriptive analysis of all variables, a correlation analysis of the independent variables, and lastly several multivariate regressions analyses between all variables. In order to make it possible to acquire the most valid and reliable conclusions, the study will be based on a quantitative method, applying a deductive approach. The results found the most statistically significant relationships between all debt ratios and company size. The conclusion stated that the capital structure of OMXS companies, within Large Cap, had changed during the pandemic compared to before. In summary the results contribute to a deeper understanding of the relationship between all analyzed variables based on a historical background. Hence Swedish companies within these sectors can gain a better understanding of their capital structure for future financial crises.

Die Nutzung von terrestrischen Ökosystemen zur Befriedigung der Grundbedürfnisse der Menschheit hat tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf das Erdsystem und führte zur Ausprägung von anthropogen dominierten Landsystemen. Diese sind von hoher Komplexität, da sie aus einer Vielzahl von unterschiedlichsten Einflussfaktoren angetriebenen Landnutzungsveränderungen hervorgegangen sind. Aktuelle Forderungen nach einer nachhaltigen zukünftigen Landnutzung erfordern ein fundiertes und integratives Verständnis dieser Komplexität. Das Hauptziel dieser Arbeit ist es, ein besseres Verständnis der raum-zeitlichen Muster und Determinanten des Landsystemwandels, insbesondere der Landnutzungsintensität, in Europa zwischen 1990 und 2010 zu erlangen. Europa ist ein interessantes Studiengebiet, da es jüngst starke Landnutzungsveränderungen erlebte und seine Heterogenität zu einer Vielfalt von Landsystemen und Landsystemveränderungen führte. Das Ziel der Arbeit wurde durch (i) die Kartierung von Intensitätsmustern und deren Veränderungen in Forst- und Agrarsystemen sowie der Ermittlung der dafür einflussreichsten räumlichen Determinanten und (ii) die Kartierung und Charakterisierung archetypischer Muster und Entwicklungsverläufe von Landsystemen untersucht. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigten einen deutlichen Ost-West-Unterschied in Landsystemmustern und -veränderungen in Europa, mit intensiv genutzten und intensivierenden Regionen vor allem in Westeuropa. Dennoch wurde Europa vor allem durch relativ stabile Landsystemmuster gekennzeichnet und (De-)Intensivierungstrends waren nur von untergeordneter Bedeutung. Intensitätsmuster und -veränderungen waren stark an Standortbedingungen gebunden, vor allem an edaphische, klimatische, und länderspezifische Besonderheiten. Diese Arbeit erweitert das Verständnis des Landsystemwandels in Europa und kann zur Entwicklung wissenschaftlicher und politikbezogener Maßnahmen sowie zur Erreichung einer nachhaltigeren Landnutzung in Europa beitragen. / The utilisation of terrestrial ecosystems to satisfy the basic needs of humankind has profound impacts on the Earth System and led to the development of human-dominated land systems. These are substantially complex as they evolved from a multitude of land-change pathways driven by a variety of influential factors. Current calls for a more sustainable future land-use require a sound and integrative understanding of this complexity. The main goal of this thesis is to better understand the spatio-temporal patterns and the determinants of land-system change in Europe between 1990 and 2010, especially with regard to land-use intensity. Europe serves as an interesting study region as it recently experienced a period of marked land-use change, and since its large environmental, political, and socio-economic heterogeneity resulted in a diversity of land systems and land-change pathways. Land-system changes in Europe were examined by (i) mapping patterns and changes in forestry and agricultural intensity and identifying the most influential spatial determinants related to these changes, and (ii) mapping and characterising archetypical patterns and trajectories of land systems considering both land-use extent and intensity indicators. Results revealed a distinct east-west divide in Europe’s land-system patterns and change trajectories, with intensively used and intensifying regions particularly located in Western Europe. However, Europe was mainly characterised by relatively stable land-systems patterns with (de-) intensification trends being only of minor importance. Land-use intensity levels and changes were strongly related to site conditions, especially with regard to soil and climate, as well as to country-specific characteristics. By fostering the understanding of land-system change, this thesis has the potential to contribute to scientific and policy-related actions that address current efforts to guide future land systems in Europe to a more sustainable use.

Text in English / An increasingly recognised prevention approach for substance use entails reduction in risk factors and enhancement of promotive or protective factors in individuals and the environment surrounding them during their growth and development. However, in order to enhance the effectiveness of this approach, continuous study of risk aspects targeting different cultures, social groups and mixture of society has been recommended. This study evaluated the impact of potential risk and protective factors associated with family management and relations on adolescent substance abuse in South Africa. Exploratory analysis and cumulative odds ordinal logistic regression modelling was performed on the data while controlling for demographic and socio-economic characteristics on adolescent substance use. The most intensely used substances were tobacco, cannabis, cocaine, heroin and alcohol in decreasing order of use intensity. The specific protective or risk impact of family management or relations factors varied from substance to substance. Risk factors associated with demographic and socio-economic factors included being male, younger age, being in lower education grades, coloured ethnicity, adolescents from divorced parents and unemployed or fully employed mothers. Significant family relations risk and protective factors against substance use were classified as either family functioning and conflict or family bonding and support. Several family management factors, categorised as parental monitoring, discipline, behavioural control and rewards, demonstrated either risk or protective effect on adolescent substance use. Some factors had either interactive risk or protective impact on substance use or lost significance when analysed jointly with other factors such as controlled variables. Interaction amongst risk or protective factors as well as the type of substance should be considered when further considering interventions based on these risk or protective factors. Studies in other geographical regions, institutions and with better gender balance are recommended to improve upon the representativeness of the results. Several other considerations to be made when formulating interventions, the shortcomings of this study and possible improvements as well as future studies are also suggested. / Psychology / M. A. (Psychology)

Text in English / An increasingly recognised prevention approach for substance use entails reduction in risk factors and enhancement of promotive or protective factors in individuals and the environment surrounding them during their growth and development. However, in order to enhance the effectiveness of this approach, continuous study of risk aspects targeting different cultures, social groups and mixture of society has been recommended. This study evaluated the impact of potential risk and protective factors associated with family management and relations on adolescent substance abuse in South Africa. Exploratory analysis and cumulative odds ordinal logistic regression modelling was performed on the data while controlling for demographic and socio-economic characteristics on adolescent substance use. The most intensely used substances were tobacco, cannabis, cocaine, heroin and alcohol in decreasing order of use intensity. The specific protective or risk impact of family management or relations factors varied from substance to substance. Risk factors associated with demographic and socio-economic factors included being male, younger age, being in lower education grades, coloured ethnicity, adolescents from divorced parents and unemployed or fully employed mothers. Significant family relations risk and protective factors against substance use were classified as either family functioning and conflict or family bonding and support. Several family management factors, categorised as parental monitoring, discipline, behavioural control and rewards, demonstrated either risk or protective effect on adolescent substance use. Some factors had either interactive risk or protective impact on substance use or lost significance when analysed jointly with other factors such as controlled variables. Interaction amongst risk or protective factors as well as the type of substance should be considered when further considering interventions based on these risk or protective factors. Studies in other geographical regions, institutions and with better gender balance are recommended to improve upon the representativeness of the results. Several other considerations to be made when formulating interventions, the shortcomings of this study and possible improvements as well as future studies are also suggested. / Psychology / M. A. (Psychology)