Cette thèse se compose de trois essais sur le rôle des institutions dans le processus de développement. Le chapitre 2 examine dans quelle mesure l'existence de régimes multiples est associée à la qualité des institutions d'un pays, et analyse la différence de rôle joué par les institutions politiques et économiques dans le processus de croissance. Les résultats indiquent que les institutions économiques sont les causes immédiates et ont un impact direct sur le taux de croissance. Les institutions politiques sont les causes profondes, et sont donc les éléments qui déterminent dans quel régime de croissance se trouve un pays.Le chapitre 3 réétudie la problématique de la malédiction des ressources naturelles. Il teste l'hypothèse que l'effet de l'abondance en ressources naturelles sur le taux de croissance dépend du régime de croissance dans lequel le pays est inclus. Les résultats montrent un régime de bénédiction où les ressources naturelles favorisent la croissance et un régime de malédiction où les ressources naturelles ne stimulent pas la croissance. En outre plus de démocratie augmente la probabilité pour qu'un pays donné appartienne au premier régime. Le chapitre 4 teste si les différences de priorités politiques entre les hommes et les femmes, ou si les caractéristiques à l'échelle du pays telles que la qualité des institutions expliquent l'écart au soutien à la démocratie entre ces deux groupes d'individus. L'étude a montré que le contexte institutionnel du pays dans lequel les femmes vivent joue un rôle primordial. / This dissertation consists of three essays on institutions in the process of development. Chapter 2 considers to what extent the existence of multiple regimes is associated to the quality of institutions in a country, and analyses the difference of the role played by political and economic institutions in the growth process. The results indicate that economic institutions are proximate causes and have a direct impact on the growth rate. On the other hand political institutions are deep causes, and thus are the key determinant for which growth regime a country belongs to. In chapter 3, I re-examine the question of the resource curse. I test to which extent the impact of natural resources on the growth rate depends truly on the growth regime to which a country belongs. I find two different growth regimes. One is a resource-blessed regime in which natural resources increase signicantly the growth rate. The second one is a resource-cursed regime in which natural resources do not stimulate the growth rate. The analysis of the determinants of whether a country belongs or not to the blessed resource regime indicates that high level of democracy increases the probability for a given country to belong to this regime. Chapter 4 tries to understand and to provide potential explanations to why women are less supportive of democracy than men in Sub-sahara Africa. We test whether this gap is due to individual differences in policy priorities or to country-wide characteristics. The results support that in Sub-sahara Africa the gender gap in support for democracy disappears in countries with high level of the Human Development Indicator and of political rights.

The existence of substantial socio-economic inequalities is one of the most fundamental features of the Brazilian society. Although educational inequality is not the only source of such socio-economic inequalities, it plays a major role, particularly regarding income inequality, both for current and for future generations. Acquiring a better understanding of the patterns of educational inequalities in Brazil is thus a relevant research topic, with implications for policy-making. The first part of the thesis contains a conceptual discussion in which we try to determine an appropriate definition of educational justice. We advocate the use of “essential educational achievements” as the relevant “currency of educational justice” and we defend a version of “equality of educational opportunity” in which the responsibility that is assigned to individuals increases as they grow up. While a remarkable quantitative improvement has taken place recently in Brazil, the situation concerning the quality of education is less clear. To explore qualitative aspects, in the second part, we turn to pupils' performance in standardized tests. Applying usual distributional assessment tools to such data, we map the intensity of educational inequalities in the country. Using recently-developed indices of inequality of opportunity, we assess the fairness of the Brazilian schooling system. Thus we identify both the areas where educational inequality is more intense, and those where educational unfairness is more severe. In the third part, we use econometric methods to investigate how the reallocation of educational resources could contribute to moving Brazilian educational system towards educational fairness. First, we evaluate the effect of teachers' wages on pupils' achievement, and our analysis suggests there is scope for Brazilian public schools to improve their human resources policies, with potential benefits accruing to low-performing pupils. Then, we analyze the reallocations of educational resources required to equalize educational opportunities, and we find that the redistribution of non-monetary inputs could considerably reduce the magnitude of the financial redistribution needed.

The study is intended to identify relevant channels and possibly biasing factors with respect to fiscal multipliers, and thus to contribute to improving the precision of multiplier forecasts. This is done by, first, defining the concept of the multiplier used in the present study, presenting the main theoretical channels of influence as discussed in the literature and the problems of empirical identification. Second, by conducting a meta-regression analysis on the reported multipliers from a unique data set of 1069 multiplier observations and the respective study characteristics in order to derive quantitative stylzed facts. Third, by developing a simple multiplier model that explicitly takes into account the time elapse of the multiplier process as an explanatory factor that has been largely overlooked by the relevant theoretical literature. Fourth, by identifying, for US macroeconomic time series data, the extent to which fiscal multiplier estimates could be biased in the presence of financial cycles that have not been taken into account by the relevant empirical literature.

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Obs.: Mandarei um modelo em seu e-mail para visualização. Qualquer duvida estamos a disposição, Pâmela Tonsa 3799-7852 on 2017-02-07T10:24:20Z (GMT) / Submitted by caio rego (caiovr@gmail.com) on 2017-02-07T14:33:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoCaioVieira.pdf: 664958 bytes, checksum: 191819e57bac8bd461bc698115d3f3ef (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Boa tarde Caio, Para que possamos aprovar seu trabalho são necessários alguns ajustes conforme norma ABNT/APA. * Seu título na hora de postar deve ser como esta na ATA, não só na mudança do titulo no trabalho. (INVESTOR PROTECTION AND CONSTRAINTS RELIEF) * Verificar a primeira e a segunda folha, pois seu nome está no rodapé da página. ( isso acontece quando muda para pdf - ficar atento) * Conforme a norma é necessário ter AGRADECIMENTO, ABSTRACT E RESUMO - Letra Maiúscula Após os ajustes você deve submete-lo novamente para análise e aprovação. Qualquer dúvida estamos à disposição, Pâmela Tonsa 3799-7852 on 2017-02-07T16:04:37Z (GMT) / Submitted by caio rego (caiovr@gmail.com) on 2017-02-07T17:18:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoCaioVieira.pdf: 666485 bytes, checksum: 3cb122fce819ec6da1fde898c3518471 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2017-02-07T17:29:01Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoCaioVieira.pdf: 666485 bytes, checksum: 3cb122fce819ec6da1fde898c3518471 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-07T19:00:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertaçãoCaioVieira.pdf: 666485 bytes, checksum: 3cb122fce819ec6da1fde898c3518471 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-22 / Under financial constraints, firms are kept from following first-best policies. It is in the best interests of the regulators to diminish this inefficiencies as firms play such a important roles in the economy as generating employment and contributing to the GDP. One of the channels through which regulation may interfere with firms funding availability is by protecting investors. This research assesses the relationship between investor protection and firms’ financial constraints. I split some of the most common measures of investor protection among three classes: creditor protection, minority protection and external investor protection. This division is relevant to screen the importance of a given class to alleviate the constraints: constrained firms are likely to share some characteristics that make them more akin to rely on given funding source, for example: firms facing asymmetric information problems are more suitable to debt financing. The cash-flow sensitivity of cash is used as a proxy for financial constraints. I construct cash saving models based on a sample of 27471 firms in 393 industries (3 digit-SIC), from 2001 to 2015. The models are fitted in two groups: for firms more likely to be constrained, and for firms less likely. To classify the firms between this two groups I rely on the Size and Age index, and on switching regressions with unknown separation points. The results points that creditor protection is related to lower cash-flow sensitivities of cash for the constrained firms, while external investor protection are related to more prevalent constraints. Minority protection present a negative interaction with the cash-sensitivity of cash in the panel model (indicating constraints relief) but positive coefficient relative to the switching regression. For the unconstrained batch, however, the results are mixed for the creditor protection measure, while external investor protection always diminish the firms’ propensity to save cash. / Sob restrição financeira, as firmas se distanciam de suas políticas ótimas. É do interesse dos reguladores diminuir as essas ineficiências pois as empresas desempenham funções importantes como contribuir para o PIB e gerar empregos. Uma das formas com que a regulação pode contribuir com a disponibilidade de financiamento para as companhias é estipulando leis que protegem seus investidores. Essa pesquisa investiga a relação entre proteção ao investidor e a restrição financeiro no meio corporativo. Nela, eu divido as leis que protegem os investidores em três tipos: proteção ao credor, ao acionista e ao investidor externo. A importância dessa divisão se dá por permitir identificar o efeito relativo de uma certa categoria de proteção em aliviar restrições financeiras: firmas restritas possuem características que podem torná-las mais suscetíveis a se financiar por certa forma de financiamento, por exemplo: firmas enfrentando assimetria de informação têm no endividamento sua forma de financiamento mais adequada. Para identificar restrição financeira eu me apoio na sensibilidade do caixa ao fluxo de caixa. Eu construo modelos de formação de caixa baseados em uma amostra de 27471 firmas em 393 industrias (SIC de 3 dígitos). A amostra compreende os anos entre 2000 e 2016. Os modelos são ajustados para 2 grupos: o das firmas mais prováveis de enfrentarem restrição financeira e o das menos prováveis. Para realizar essa classificação eu utilizo o índice de Tamanho e Idade, e em uma switching regression com pontos de separação desconhecidos. Os resultados apontam que proteção ao credor está relacionada a menores sensibilidades do caixa ao fluxo de caixa para ao grupo restrito, enquanto proteção ao investidor externo está relacionada ao restrições mais prevalentes. Proteção ao acionista apresenta uma interação negativa com a sensibilidade da caixa ao fluxo de caixa no modelo em painel, mas o sinal oposto no modelo de switching regression. No conjunto de firmas irrestritas por outro lado, os resultados são inconclusivos para a variável de proteção ao credor, enquanto proteção ao investidor externo sempre aparece relacionado a uma diminuição da restrição financeira.

This research was geared towards the investigation of management strategies (factors) that affect the performance ofMSMEs in Kenya. Many developed countries record a time in history when entrepreneurial activities led to revival of economical growth after decline. This implies MSMEs is a very vital sector especially for a developing country like Kenya. MSMEs stagnate and their performance is uncertain according to writers such as Namusonge, Management inadequacies have been suggested in several studies. The objectives of this research was to, 1. To identifY the critical management factors affecting the performance of MSMEs in Kenya; ii. To establish the process through which managerial factors affect the performance of a MSMEs in Kenya ; m. To determine the integrative effect of various management factors in the MSMES in Kenya; IV. To establish the effect of demographics and management factors on performance, v. To establish effects of external environment on internal management factors A conceptual model was formulated from the literature review showing relationships of the management strategies and the environment they operate in. These relationships became the basis for the hypotheses which were later tested. In chapter 4, a mini research (pilot study) was conducted in May 2007,whose main aim was to test the reliability and validity of the research instruments. The 36 questionnaires returned were analysed through descriptive method. Results obtained indicated the instruments were reliable and the results valid. A few corrections suggested were made. The major correction was addition of question 35 to collect financial information. The data collection was done between mid August and mid October 2007.In chapter 5, the researcher analysesd the results of the survey after receiving 180 questionnaires. Time was a constraint. In chapter 6, the hypotheses and conceptual model were analysed and the results obtained suggested that, most strategies did not affect the profitability separately but severally. The integrated effect of the management strategies and the associated factors had a higher impact on performance of the MSMES than any individual strategies. In chapter 7, the conclusions, summaries and Recommendations are given. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management and Policy)

Dans le contexte du changement climatique contemporain, les analyses climatiques à l’échelle régionale présentent un intérêt majeur car elles permettent de rendre compte des hétérogénéités spatiales des évolutions climatiques. Notre étude propose une analyse de l’évolution climatique récente au Maroc et en Mauritanie et leur proche océan. Elle s’intéresse à cette évolution dans les basses couches de l’atmosphère en tenant compte des conditions thermiques (les températures de l’air à 2m), de la dynamique climatique côtière (TSM et upwelling), puis de la dynamique atmosphérique constituée des pressions atmosphériques et des vents de surface. Pour la totalité des paramètres météorologiques étudiés, la variabilité et l’évolution interannuelles sont analysées aux échelles annuelle et mensuelle / saisonnière. Les analyses statistiques basées principalement sur les régressions linéaires et la segmentation d’Hubert ont permis de monter que l’espace maroco-mauritanien a connu au cours des six dernières décennies (1950-2008), des évolutions climatiques contrastées tant à l’échelle spatiale qu’à l’échelle saisonnière. Les résultats les plus marquants se résument dans :•une évolution thermique contrastée avec un réchauffement plus marqué au Maroc et au Sahara qu’en Mauritanie, •augmentation de l’intensité de l’upwelling sur la côte marocaine et diminution de son intensité sur la côte mauritanienne,•une forte et dominante tendance à la hausse de la pression atmosphérique laissant apparaître notamment un renforcement de l’A.A méditerrano-saharienne et un affaiblissement de la dépression thermique saharienne en été,•une tendance générale à la baisse de la vitesse des vents, qui se produit parallèlement à une rotation de la rose des vents du nord au nord-est pour les alizés maritimes et du nord à l’est pour les alizés continentaux.La segmentation d’Hubert a permis de confirmer que les fluctuations climatiques majeures dans l’espace maroco-mauritanien et son proche océan se sont produites pendant les années 1970. Cela se vérifie à l’échelle des températures de l’air, de l’upwelling, et des PNM, tandis que pour les vents, la rupture qui a touché la vitesse et la fréquence des directions principales des alizés s’est produite entre les années 1960 et 1970. Une seconde période de rupture est mise en évidence par la segmentation d’Hubert. Elle concerne les années 1990 dans les séries chronologiques des températures de l’air et des PNM. / In the context of global contemporary climate change, regional climate analyses are of major interest as they allow accounting for spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our study provides for an analysis of recent climate changes in Morocco and Mauritania and their nearby Ocean. It focuses on the evolution in the lower layers of the atmosphere, taking into account the thermal conditions (air temperature at 2m), the coastal climate dynamics (sst and upwelling), and atmosphere dynamics made of atmospheric pressures and surface winds. For all the studied meteorological parameters, the variability and inter-annual evolution are analyzed on monthly and annual / seasonal scales.Statistical analyzes based primarily on linear regressions and Hubert's segmentation helped show that the Moroccan-Mauritanian zone has experienced over the past six decades (1950-2008), contrasting climate changes both at the spatial and seasonal scales. The most significant results are hereunder summarized :•A contrasted thermal evolution with a more pronounced warming in Morocco and the Sahara than in Mauritania,•Increase the intensity of the upwelling on the Moroccan coast and decrease on the Mauritanian,•A strong and dominant upward trend in atmospheric pressure, resulting, in particular, in a Mediterrano-Saharan AA strengthening and lower Saharan thermal pressure during summer,•A general downward trend in wind speed, in parallel with a rotation of the compass rose from north to northeast for marine trade winds, and from north to east for the continental trade winds.Hubert’ Segmentation confirmed that the major climatic fluctuations in the Moroccan-Mauritanian area and their nearby ocean occurred during the 1970s. This is true at the level of air temperatures, the upwelling, and SLP, while the disruption that affected the wind speed and the frequency of the main directions of the trade winds occurred between 1960 and 1970. A second period of disruption has been demonstrated by Hubert’s segmentation. It relates to the 1990s in air temperature chronological series and SLP.

In order to combat global warming and climate change issues and facilitate economic prosperity in the same time, it is important to understand the possible tradeoffs between economic growth and environmental degradation. In this thesis, we evaluate the hypothesis of an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Using panel data analysis, we investigate the relationship between CO2 emissions, GDP per capita, renewable energy consumption, technological development, trade, and institutional quality for 74 countries over the period of 1994 to 2012. We find (i) evidence for the Nshaped EKC when using pooled OLS regressions for all income groups but upper-middleincome countries; (ii) heterogeneous results regarding the N-shaped EKC across income groups and quantiles when using quantile regressions; and (iii) a clear and consistent negative relationship between renewable energy and CO2 emissions, indicating the importance of promoting greener energy to combat climate change. / För att bekämpa klimatförändringar och samtidigt möjliggöra ekonomiskt välstånd är det viktigt att förstå de möjliga avvägningarna mellan ekonomisk tillväxt och miljöförstöring. I denna uppsats utvärderar vi hypotesen om en N-formad miljökuznetskurva (EKC). Med hjälp av paneldataanalys undersöker vi förhållandet mellan koldioxidutsläpp, BNP per capita, förnybar energi, teknologisk utveckling, internationell handel och institutionell kvalitet för 74 länder under perioden 1994 till 2012. Vi finner (i) bevis för en N-formad EKC för alla inkomstgrupper förutom övre medelinkomstländer när poolad OLS används som skattningsmetod; (ii) heterogena resultat gällande en N-formad EKC, både mellan och inom de olika inkomstgrupperna, när vi använder oss av kvantilregressioner; och (iii) ett tydligt och konsekvent negativt förhållande mellan förnybar energi och koldioxidutsläpp, vilket pekar på vikten av att främja grönare energi för att kunna bekämpa klimatförändringar.

Electronic Control Unit (ECU) is a crucial component in today’s vehicle. In a complete vehicle, there are many ECUs installed. Each of these controls a single function of the vehicle. During the development cycle of an ECU, its functionality needs to be validated against the requirement specification. The Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) method is commonly used to do this by testing the ECU in a virtual representation of its controlled system. One crucial part of the HIL testing method is an intermediary component that acts as a bridge between the simulation computer and the ECU under test. This component runs a parameterized real-time system that translates messages from the simulation computer to the ECU under test and vice versa. It has a strict real-time requirement for each of its tasks to complete.A logging and monitoring system is needed to ensure that the intermediary component is functioning correctly. This functionality is implemented in the form of low priority additional tasks that run concurrently with the high priority message translation tasks. The implementation of these tasks, alongside with a distributed system to support the logging and monitoring functionality, is presented in this thesis work.Several execution time measurements are carried out to get the information on how the parameters of a task affect its execution time. Then, the linear regression analysis is used to model the execution time estimation of the parameterized tasks. Finally, the time demand analysis is utilized to provide a guarantee that the system is schedulable. / Elektronisk styrenhet (ECU) är en viktig del i dagens fordon. I ett komplett fordon finns det många ECU installerade. Var och en av dessa kontrollerar en enda funktion hos fordonet. Under en utvecklingscykel för en ecu måste dess funktionalitet valideras mot kravspecifikationen. HIL-metoden (Hardware-in-the-loop) används vanligtvis för att göra detta genom att testa ECU i en virtuell representation av sitt styrda system. En viktig del av HIL-testmetoden är en mellanliggande komponent som fungerar som en bro mellan simuleringsdatorn och den ecu som testas. Denna komponent driver ett parametrerat realtidssystem som översätter meddelanden från simuleringsdatorn till ECU som testas och vice versa. Det har en strikt realtidskrav för att alla uppgifter ska kunna slutföras.Ett loggnings och övervakningssystem behövs för att den mellanliggande komponenten ska fungera korrekt. Denna funktionalitet är implementerad i form av extraordinära uppgifter med låg prioritet som körs samtidigt med de högsta prioritetsuppgifterna för översättningstjänster. Genomförandet av dessa uppgifter, tillsammans med ett distribuerat system för att stödja loggnings och övervakningsfunktionaliteten, presenteras i detta avhandlingararbete.Flera utförandetidsmätningar utförs för att få information om hur parametrarna för en uppgift påverkar dess körtid. Därefter används den linjära regressionsanalysen för att modellera exekveringstidestimeringen av de parametrerade uppgifterna. Slutligen används tidsanalysanalysen för att garantera att systemet är schemaläggbart.

In this thesis a regression analysis of ten independent data sets is analysed in order toestimate losses and Key Risk Indicators (KRI). Each data set contains a list of objects,impacts that each object contains and revenue stream values (RSV) to each impact.The project investigates the data and simulate yearly losses as response variables in theregression modelling. The three regressors that influence the yearly losses are numberof objects, sum of revenue streams and expected aggregated losses. Given the responsevariable from each data set a percentage scale of KRI’s is determined indicating howlarge losses each set possess. / I denna avhandling analyseras en regressionsmodellering av tio oberoende mängderdata för att uppskatta förluster och Key Risk Indicators. Den givna dataupsättningeninnehåller en lista med objekt, påverkan varje objekt erhåller och vad respektiveobjekt omsätter. Projektet undersöker den givma datan och simulerar årliga förlustersom svarsvariabler i regressionsmodelleringen. De tre regressorerna som påverkarde årliga förlusterna är antalet objekt, summan av intäckterna och förvämtadesammanlagda förlusterna. Från den givna svarsvariabeln från varje datamängdbestäms en procentuell skala av KRIer som indikerar hur stora förluster varjeuppsättning har.

Die Nutzung von terrestrischen Ökosystemen zur Befriedigung der Grundbedürfnisse der Menschheit hat tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf das Erdsystem und führte zur Ausprägung von anthropogen dominierten Landsystemen. Diese sind von hoher Komplexität, da sie aus einer Vielzahl von unterschiedlichsten Einflussfaktoren angetriebenen Landnutzungsveränderungen hervorgegangen sind. Aktuelle Forderungen nach einer nachhaltigen zukünftigen Landnutzung erfordern ein fundiertes und integratives Verständnis dieser Komplexität. Das Hauptziel dieser Arbeit ist es, ein besseres Verständnis der raum-zeitlichen Muster und Determinanten des Landsystemwandels, insbesondere der Landnutzungsintensität, in Europa zwischen 1990 und 2010 zu erlangen. Europa ist ein interessantes Studiengebiet, da es jüngst starke Landnutzungsveränderungen erlebte und seine Heterogenität zu einer Vielfalt von Landsystemen und Landsystemveränderungen führte. Das Ziel der Arbeit wurde durch (i) die Kartierung von Intensitätsmustern und deren Veränderungen in Forst- und Agrarsystemen sowie der Ermittlung der dafür einflussreichsten räumlichen Determinanten und (ii) die Kartierung und Charakterisierung archetypischer Muster und Entwicklungsverläufe von Landsystemen untersucht. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigten einen deutlichen Ost-West-Unterschied in Landsystemmustern und -veränderungen in Europa, mit intensiv genutzten und intensivierenden Regionen vor allem in Westeuropa. Dennoch wurde Europa vor allem durch relativ stabile Landsystemmuster gekennzeichnet und (De-)Intensivierungstrends waren nur von untergeordneter Bedeutung. Intensitätsmuster und -veränderungen waren stark an Standortbedingungen gebunden, vor allem an edaphische, klimatische, und länderspezifische Besonderheiten. Diese Arbeit erweitert das Verständnis des Landsystemwandels in Europa und kann zur Entwicklung wissenschaftlicher und politikbezogener Maßnahmen sowie zur Erreichung einer nachhaltigeren Landnutzung in Europa beitragen. / The utilisation of terrestrial ecosystems to satisfy the basic needs of humankind has profound impacts on the Earth System and led to the development of human-dominated land systems. These are substantially complex as they evolved from a multitude of land-change pathways driven by a variety of influential factors. Current calls for a more sustainable future land-use require a sound and integrative understanding of this complexity. The main goal of this thesis is to better understand the spatio-temporal patterns and the determinants of land-system change in Europe between 1990 and 2010, especially with regard to land-use intensity. Europe serves as an interesting study region as it recently experienced a period of marked land-use change, and since its large environmental, political, and socio-economic heterogeneity resulted in a diversity of land systems and land-change pathways. Land-system changes in Europe were examined by (i) mapping patterns and changes in forestry and agricultural intensity and identifying the most influential spatial determinants related to these changes, and (ii) mapping and characterising archetypical patterns and trajectories of land systems considering both land-use extent and intensity indicators. Results revealed a distinct east-west divide in Europe’s land-system patterns and change trajectories, with intensively used and intensifying regions particularly located in Western Europe. However, Europe was mainly characterised by relatively stable land-systems patterns with (de-) intensification trends being only of minor importance. Land-use intensity levels and changes were strongly related to site conditions, especially with regard to soil and climate, as well as to country-specific characteristics. By fostering the understanding of land-system change, this thesis has the potential to contribute to scientific and policy-related actions that address current efforts to guide future land systems in Europe to a more sustainable use.