<p>In this thesis an approach to CDO tranche valuation is described.</p><p>This approach allows to check market quotes for arbitrage opportunities,</p><p>to obtain expected portfolio losses from the market quotes</p><p>and to price CDO tranches with non-standard maturities and attachment/</p><p>detachment points. A significant advantage of this approach is</p><p>the possibility to avoid the necessity of construction of a correlation</p><p>structure between names in the reference basket. Standard approaches</p><p>to CDO valuation, based on copula functions are also considered.</p>

In this thesis an approach to CDO tranche valuation is described. This approach allows to check market quotes for arbitrage opportunities, to obtain expected portfolio losses from the market quotes and to price CDO tranches with non-standard maturities and attachment/ detachment points. A significant advantage of this approach is the possibility to avoid the necessity of construction of a correlation structure between names in the reference basket. Standard approaches to CDO valuation, based on copula functions are also considered.

För att värna om finansiell stabilitet utförs kontinuerligt bedömningar utav de risker och hot som återfinns mot det finansiella systemet, man granskar också det finansiella systemets motståndskraft emot dessa. För att förhindra att nya bankkriser uppstår införs med jämna mellanrum nya regleringar. Däribland skall en ny redovisningsmodell implementeras för redovisning utav kreditförluster – Expected loss model. Denna redovisningsmodell ger upphov till ett ökat inslag av bedömningar vid redovisning utav kreditförluster. Det blir därmed intressant att försöka förklara banktjänstemäns och revisorers uppfattningar angående subjektiva bedömningar och dess påverkan på en rättvisande bild vid redovisning utav kreditförluster. Genom att tillämpa en abduktiv ansats i studien har en växling mellan empirisk och teoretisk reflektion möjliggjorts vid skapande utav hypotesen. Med hjälp utav ett webbaserat frågformulär har man undersökt banktjänstemän och revisorers uppfattningar angående i vilken utsträckning subjektiva bedömningar leder till en rättvisande bild vid redovisning utav kreditförluster. Frågeformuläret tilldelades banktjänstemän som dagligen arbetar med förlustavsättningar och samtliga auktoriserade revisorer vilka är medlemmar i FAR. Empirin har sedan bearbetats statistiskt för att kunna testa den hypotes som tagits fram med bakgrund i studiens teoretiska referensram. Genom denna studie har man statistiskt kunnat säkerställa att det återfinns en skillnad i uppfattningar mellan banktjänstemän och revisorer angående hur subjektiva bedömningar speglar en rättvisande bild utav bankens kreditkvalitet. Man kan således i enlighet med studiens hypotes påvisa att banktjänstemän i större utsträckning anser att subjektiva bedömningar leder till en mer rättvisande bild utav bankens kreditkvalitet. Då bedömningar med stor sannolikhet förändras i samklang med rådande marknadsklimat och aktuella redovisningsstandarder anser man att studien fyller en kunskapslucka inom området. / To protect the financial stability, assessments of the risk and threats to the financial system are carried out continuously. Also, the financial system’s resilience against these risks and threats is reviewed. To prevent creation of new bank crisis new regulation are implemented continuously. Among these, a new accounting model is implemented for the accounting of credit losses - Expected loss model. This accounting model gives rise to an increase in the use of assessments in the accounting of credit losses. This makes it interesting to try explaining bank office workers and auditors’ perceptions regarding subjective judgments and their impact on a true and fair view in accounting of credit losses. The application of an abductive view in the study made it possible to switch between empirical and theoretical reflections to be used in the creation of the hypothesis. An investigation of bank office workers and auditors’ perceptions regarding the extent to which subjective judgments impacts a true and fair view in accounting of credit losses was carried out through a questionnaire. The questionnaire was handed to bankers who in their daily work are in contact with loss provision and to all certified public accountants that are members of FAR. The result was then statistically processed in order to test the hypotheses which have been created from the study’s theoretical framework. This study has statistically made it possible to show that there is a difference in perceptions between bank office workers and auditors’ regarding how subjective judgments reflect a true and fair value of the bank’s credit quality. Therefore it is possible in accordance with the study’s hypothesis to prove that bank office workers to a greater extent believe that subjective judgments lead to a more true and fair value in accounting for credit losses. Since assessments with high probability change in consistence with current market conditions and accounting standards, it is believed that the study fills a knowledge gap in the field.

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Accounting has been critized for being one of the leading factors in the latest financial crisis. One of the primary problem areas was identified as delayed recogonition of losses on financial instruments. Consequently, a new impairment model is being developed and is to be namned expected loss model. The difference from the present model, incurred loss model, is that it takes losses into consideration on an much earlier level. Even though the model may be theoretically feasible, in practice it may implicate a number of issues. This study examines this model and divides it into three divisions - classification of the assets, estimation procedure and disclosures. Reasearch has been conducted through in-depth interviews with practitioners within the accounting profession. The information gathered from the respondents have been analyzed using prior research that is considered closely linked to the model and the international accounting standardsetters IASBs and FASBs qualitiative characteristics, relevance and reliability. The conclusion is that the proposed model is deemed relevant even if it is difficult to reach high reliability as a consequense of the models high level of uncertainty, subjectivity and flexibility from a management perspective. To ensure sufficient capital reserves, despite the possibly low reliability, the model should be of conservative nature. Disclosures will continue to play an important role in conveying assumptions and minimizing manipulation if they can be presented in a comprehensive manner.

Submitted by Bruno Bortoluzzo Pazzoto (brunopazzoto@hotmail.com) on 2012-10-01T13:52:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao bruno pazzoto - versão final.pdf: 1116879 bytes, checksum: 97b2413340bda7342a4871944c193ff1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2012-10-01T14:37:42Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao bruno pazzoto - versão final.pdf: 1116879 bytes, checksum: 97b2413340bda7342a4871944c193ff1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-01T15:10:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao bruno pazzoto - versão final.pdf: 1116879 bytes, checksum: 97b2413340bda7342a4871944c193ff1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-30 / With the relevance of the credit market has been gaining in the economy this study set out to do a conceptual review of credit risk. Since the expected loss as the main component of credit risk, the work proposes a new way to calculate it. The way it is modeled usually presuppose that the input parameters PD and LGD are independent. Some authors have questioned this assumption and that if this dependence is not taken into account calculations of expected loss and capital should be allocated will be incorrect. An alternative to treat the correlation is modeling the two components together, comparing the results of the usual model with the new model the conclusion is that the error of estimate of expected loss with the second model has been smaller. We can not say that the smallest error in the estimate of loss is because of the correlation between PD and LGD, but modeling the parameters together retires this strong assumption. / Com a relevância que o mercado de crédito vem ganhando na economia o presente trabalho se propôs a fazer uma revisão conceitual do risco de crédito. Tendo a perda esperada como o principal componente do risco de crédito, o trabalho se aprofundou nesse tema propondo uma maneira nova para o cálculo da mesma. Da maneira que ela é modelada usualmente pressupoem que os parâmetros de PD e LGD são independentes. Alguns autores questionam essa pressuposição e que, se essa dependência não for levada em conta os cálculos de perda esperada e o capital que deveria ser alocado estarão incorretos. Uma alternativa para tratar a correlação é modelar os dois componentes conjuntamente, ao comparar os resultados do modelo usual com o modelo conjunto conclui-se que o erro da estimativa de perda esperada do modelo conjunto foi menor. Não se pode afirmar que o menor erro na estimativa de perda se deve a correlação entre a PD e LGD, porém ao modelar os parâmetros conjuntamente, retira-se essa forte pressuposição.

Counterparty credit risk is present in trades offinancial obligations. This master thesis investigates the up and comingtechnology blockchain and how it could be used to mitigate counterparty creditrisk. The study intends to cover essentials of the mathematical model expectedloss, along with an introduction to the blockchain technology. After modellinga simple smart contract and using historical financial data, it was evidentthat there is a possible opportunity to reduce counterparty credit risk withthe use of blockchain. From the market study of this thesis, it is obvious thatthe current financial market needs more education about blockchain technology. / Motpartsrisk är närvarande i finansiella obligationer. Den här uppsatsen un- dersöker den lovande teknologin blockkedjan och hur den kan användas för att reducera motpartsrisk. Studien har för avsikt att täcka det essentiel- la i den matematiska modellen för förväntad förlust, samt en introduktion om blockkedjeteknologi. Efter att ha modellerat ett enkelt smart kontrakt, där historiska finansiella data använts, var det tydligt att det kan finnas en möjlighet att reducera motpartsrisk med hjälp av blockkedjan. Från mark- nadsundersökningen gjord i studien var det uppenbart att den nuvarande finansiella marknaden är i stort behov av mer utbildning om blockkedjan.

Instrumentos financeiros ativos estão diretamente expostos ao risco de inadimplência - nesse cenário, as instituições financeiras, a fim de manterem sua solvência, são obrigadas a estimarem certo montante capaz de suprir as perdas de crédito esperadas. Na crise financeira mundial de 2007-2008 os incumprimentos dos contratos imobiliários geraram grandes perdas de crédito - o tardio reconhecimento dessas perdas creditícias criou um cenário de insegurança e o questionamento por parte das instituições financeiras, que passaram a cobrar dos reguladores e emitentes das normas contábeis uma forma de provisionamento que melhor se adequasse ao mercado de crédito e que, de certa forma, proporcionasse melhores condições de preparação para as instituições financeiras, minimizando as perdas em épocas de crise. Nesse contexto, ocorre a emissão da norma internacional Financial Instruments do International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS 9) que passa a vigorar, com adoção obrigatória a partir de 1º de janeiro de 2018. Esta norma prevê um provisionamento desde o início do contrato, ponderado pelo risco de crédito associado e uma revisão desse montante durante toda a vida do contrato, quando necessário. Essa nova dinâmica de cálculo requer tratamentos estatísticos específicos para que sejam corretamente tratadas as probabilidades de default, bem como os valores expostos passíveis de perda e suas variações no tempo. Dessa forma, tendo em mente os objetivos propostos, indica-se que: a) este trabalho abordou a nova dinâmica citada com o intuito de entender a relação da norma com os parâmetros de risco necessários para o cálculo do montante a ser provisionado, b) visando satisfazer a abordagem forward-looking e a incorporação de informações macroeconômicas, a partir da aplicação em dados simulados e através do tratamento estatístico da Análise de Sobrevivência e de modelos de stress testing, ofereceu tratamento para os parâmetros EAD e PD, respectivamente e c) como resultado dessas aplicações, observou-se que as estimações das perdas sob a IFRS9 são mais tempestivas quando comparadas à norma vigente, no sentido de que minimizam as perdas em épocas de crise dada a sua característica oportuna. Além disso, a abordagem sugerida através da Análise de Sobrevivência vai ao encontro do conceito de estágios pelo qual a nova norma é caracterizada. Para as análises realizadas foram utilizados dados simulados a partir de distribuições teóricas conhecidas dos parâmetros envolvidos no cálculo, a partir dos quais foram obtidos resultados que fornecem uma prévia do que se pode esperar na aplicação prática da IFRS9. / Active financial instruments are directly exposed to the risk of default - in this scenario, financial institutions, in order to maintain their solvency, are obliged to estimate a certain amount capable of supplying the expected credit losses. In the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, defaults on real estate contracts generated large losses of credit - the late recognition of these credit losses created a scenario of insecurity and the questioning of financial institutions, which started to charge regulators and issuers of accounting standards a form of provision that best suited the credit market and that, to a certain extent, provide better preparedness for financial institutions, minimizing losses in times of crisis. In this context, the Financial Instruments International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS 9) will be issued, which will become effective, with mandatory adoption as of January 1, 2018. This provision provides for a provisioning from the beginning of the contract, weighted by the associated credit risk and a revision of that amount over the life of the contract, when necessary. This new dynamics of calculation requires specific statistical treatments so that the probability of default, as well as the exposed values of loss and its variations in time, are correctly treated. In this way, considering the proposed objectives, it is indicated that: a) this work addressed the new dynamics mentioned in order to understand the relation of the standard with the necessary risk parameters for the calculation of the amount to be provisioned, b) aiming to satisfy the forward-looking approach and the incorporation of macroeconomic information, from the application in simulated data and through the statistical treatment of Survival Analysis and stress testing models, offered treatment for the parameters EAD and PD, respectively, and c) as a result of these applications, it was observed that the estimates of the losses under IFRS9 are more timely when compared to the current norm as they minimize losses in times of crisis given its characteristics of anticipating losses. In addition, the approach suggested through Survival Analysis meets the concept of stages by which the new standard is characterized. For analyzes, simulated data from known theoretical distributions (of the parameters involved in the calculation) were used - the obtained results provides a preview of what can be expected in the practical application of IFRS9.

När propositionen för ett reformerat studiestödssystem lades 1999 poängterades det att studiestödssystemet skulle bära sina egna kostnader. Trots det skrivs stora belopp av. Både Riksrevisionen och Riksgälden har visat att CSN inte använder vedertagna metoder vid beräkningen av det som förväntas gå förlorat på grund av misskötta betalningar. Uppsatsens syfte har varit att skatta vad misskötta betalningar väntas kosta staten i form av framtida avskrivningar samt beräkna vad det skulle innebära för individen att istället bära kostnaden. Som en del i det arbetet har även faktorer som påverkar sannolikheten för misskötta betalningar av studielån identifierats. Resultaten av denna uppsats har bland annat visat att sannolikheten för misskötta betalningar är lägre för individer med eftergymnasial utbildning, hög skuld och låg ålder. Statens kreditförluster på studielån för till exempel individer som blev återbetalningsskyldiga under 2012 förväntas bli mellan 100 och 338 miljoner kronor. Om denna kostnad istället skulle bäras av årskullen innebär det en kostnadsökning på 2,2-7,8 procent för en individ med genomsnittlig skuld.

Instrumentos financeiros ativos estão diretamente expostos ao risco de inadimplência - nesse cenário, as instituições financeiras, a fim de manterem sua solvência, são obrigadas a estimarem certo montante capaz de suprir as perdas de crédito esperadas. Na crise financeira mundial de 2007-2008 os incumprimentos dos contratos imobiliários geraram grandes perdas de crédito - o tardio reconhecimento dessas perdas creditícias criou um cenário de insegurança e o questionamento por parte das instituições financeiras, que passaram a cobrar dos reguladores e emitentes das normas contábeis uma forma de provisionamento que melhor se adequasse ao mercado de crédito e que, de certa forma, proporcionasse melhores condições de preparação para as instituições financeiras, minimizando as perdas em épocas de crise. Nesse contexto, ocorre a emissão da norma internacional Financial Instruments do International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS 9) que passa a vigorar, com adoção obrigatória a partir de 1º de janeiro de 2018. Esta norma prevê um provisionamento desde o início do contrato, ponderado pelo risco de crédito associado e uma revisão desse montante durante toda a vida do contrato, quando necessário. Essa nova dinâmica de cálculo requer tratamentos estatísticos específicos para que sejam corretamente tratadas as probabilidades de default, bem como os valores expostos passíveis de perda e suas variações no tempo. Dessa forma, tendo em mente os objetivos propostos, indica-se que: a) este trabalho abordou a nova dinâmica citada com o intuito de entender a relação da norma com os parâmetros de risco necessários para o cálculo do montante a ser provisionado, b) visando satisfazer a abordagem forward-looking e a incorporação de informações macroeconômicas, a partir da aplicação em dados simulados e através do tratamento estatístico da Análise de Sobrevivência e de modelos de stress testing, ofereceu tratamento para os parâmetros EAD e PD, respectivamente e c) como resultado dessas aplicações, observou-se que as estimações das perdas sob a IFRS9 são mais tempestivas quando comparadas à norma vigente, no sentido de que minimizam as perdas em épocas de crise dada a sua característica oportuna. Além disso, a abordagem sugerida através da Análise de Sobrevivência vai ao encontro do conceito de estágios pelo qual a nova norma é caracterizada. Para as análises realizadas foram utilizados dados simulados a partir de distribuições teóricas conhecidas dos parâmetros envolvidos no cálculo, a partir dos quais foram obtidos resultados que fornecem uma prévia do que se pode esperar na aplicação prática da IFRS9. / Active financial instruments are directly exposed to the risk of default - in this scenario, financial institutions, in order to maintain their solvency, are obliged to estimate a certain amount capable of supplying the expected credit losses. In the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, defaults on real estate contracts generated large losses of credit - the late recognition of these credit losses created a scenario of insecurity and the questioning of financial institutions, which started to charge regulators and issuers of accounting standards a form of provision that best suited the credit market and that, to a certain extent, provide better preparedness for financial institutions, minimizing losses in times of crisis. In this context, the Financial Instruments International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS 9) will be issued, which will become effective, with mandatory adoption as of January 1, 2018. This provision provides for a provisioning from the beginning of the contract, weighted by the associated credit risk and a revision of that amount over the life of the contract, when necessary. This new dynamics of calculation requires specific statistical treatments so that the probability of default, as well as the exposed values of loss and its variations in time, are correctly treated. In this way, considering the proposed objectives, it is indicated that: a) this work addressed the new dynamics mentioned in order to understand the relation of the standard with the necessary risk parameters for the calculation of the amount to be provisioned, b) aiming to satisfy the forward-looking approach and the incorporation of macroeconomic information, from the application in simulated data and through the statistical treatment of Survival Analysis and stress testing models, offered treatment for the parameters EAD and PD, respectively, and c) as a result of these applications, it was observed that the estimates of the losses under IFRS9 are more timely when compared to the current norm as they minimize losses in times of crisis given its characteristics of anticipating losses. In addition, the approach suggested through Survival Analysis meets the concept of stages by which the new standard is characterized. For analyzes, simulated data from known theoretical distributions (of the parameters involved in the calculation) were used - the obtained results provides a preview of what can be expected in the practical application of IFRS9.