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En av de sannolikhetsbaserade metoderna som kan användas för dimensionering av tunnlar är partialkoefficientmetoden. Denna metod ökar eller reducerar variabler med hjälp av partialkoefficienter, vilka kan kalibreras sannolikhetsteoretiskt. Eurokod tillhandahåller sådana partialkoefficienter för till exempel armerad betong. Problemet med partialkoefficienterna i Eurokod är dock att ingen skillnad görs med avseende på vad betongen skall användas till. Detta examensarbete har därför syftat till att undersöka möjligheten att ta fram nya partialkoefficienter specifikt för sprutbetongförstärkning då den dimensionerande brottsmekanismen är böjbrott, detta med hjälp av tillförlitlighetsteori, FORM/FOSM. Böjbrott i sprutbetongen kan uppkomma då vidhäftningen mellan berg och sprutbetong är låg, och sprutbetongen måste bära eventuella bergblock med sin momentupptagande förmåga. För att ta fram partialkoefficienterna har uppmätt data på sprutbetongtjockleken och böjdraghållfastheten i en av Citybanans tunnlar, Norrströmstunneln, varit grunden. Statistiska fördelningar har tagits fram för att beskriva dessa data, för att möjliggöra användandet av dem i sannolikhetsanalysen. Resultaten visade att en lognormalfördelning passade observerad data bäst för sprutbetongtjockleken, och en betafördelning passade bäst för böjdraghållfastheten. Vidare visade resultaten att sannolikhetsbaserade metoder vid dimensionering för denna brottsmekanism ännu inte kan rekommenderas, då de visade på en kraftig överdimensionering jämfört med hur det idag dimensioneras. Osäkerheterna kring vissa av de modeller och variabler som använts behöver först reduceras. / One of the probability based methods that may be used when designing a tunnel is the partial factor method. This method adjusts the value of variables with the help of partial factors, which may be calibrated using a reliability-based approach. The Eurocodes provide these partial factors for different materials and structures, such as reinforced concrete. A limitation with the provided partial factors from Eurocode is the lack of consideration for the usage of the concrete. This thesis aims to investigate the possibility to derive new partial factors specifically for shotcrete reinforcement, for the failure mechanism of flexural failure. This has been done by means of reliability theory,FORM/FOSM. Flexural failure in shotcrete may occur when the adhesion between the rock and shotcrete is low. Further, the shotcrete has to have the capacity to withstand bending moments from the rocks. To derive the new partial factors, the measured data of thickness and flexural strength of shotcrete in one of Citybanan's tunnels, Norrströmstunneln, in central Stockholm have been used as the basis for the analysis. The data was described by a statistical distribution which enabled the usage of them in the reliability analysis. The results showed that a lognormal distribution best described the shotcrete thickness while flexural strength was best fitted by a beta distribution. The results also showed that it is not recommended to use probabilistic methods in design for this failure mechanism unless uncertainties, arising from some of the models and variables used, are reduced. It clearly shows that it would lead to oversizing compared with the design methods used today.

Rapid drawdown (RDD) occurs when the water level adjacent to a slope or embankment is lowered quickly after a long period of being elevated either at the normal operating level for a dam or in the case of levees, during a prolonged flood. The current state of practice for RDD analysis is a multi-stage undrained strength method based on limit equilibrium. The primary objective of this research was to develop a new method for rapid drawdown based on the finite element method. The new method estimates undrained strengths based on effective consolidation stresses from finite element analysis and the results of isotropically consolidated undrained triaxial compression (ICU-TC) tests. The field strengths appropriate for use with this rapid drawdown method were found to be on average 70% of the strength measured in ICU-TC tests based on back analysis of rapid drawdown failures. For rapid drawdown, anisotropic consolidation, plane strain deformation, and principal stress rotation were shown to produce field undrained strengths in the range of 60 to 80% of the strengths measured in isotropically consolidated undrained (ICU) triaxial compression. The current limit equilibrium method for rapid drawdown was shown to produce a similar reduction in ICU-TC strength. This study also investigated other issues related to RDD. Effective stress analysis of RDD, especially using uncoupled transient seepage analysis, was shown to be inappropriate because important aspects of soil behavior are ignored. Consolidated-undrained strength tests on compacted clay specimens highlighted the importance of relative compaction on undrained strength. Anisotropic consolidation was shown to produce lower undrained strengths in triaxial compression than isotropic consolidation, especially at higher consolidation stresses. The behavior of compacted specimens under principal stress rotation was investigated using triaxial and direct simple shear tests. Finally probabilistic methods were applied to RDD to assess the probability that the factor of safety is less than one, assuming RDD occurs. / Ph. D.

Yes / Over the years, several approaches have been developed for the quantitative analysis of dynamic fault trees (DFTs). These approaches have strong theoretical and mathematical foundations; however, they appear to suffer from the state-space explosion and high computational requirements, compromising their efficacy. Modularisation techniques have been developed to address these issues by identifying and quantifying static and dynamic modules of the fault tree separately by using binary decision diagrams and Markov models. Although these approaches appear effective in reducing computational effort and avoiding state-space explosion, the reliance of the Markov chain on exponentially distributed data of system components can limit their widespread industrial applications. In this paper, we propose a hybrid modularisation scheme where independent sub-trees of a DFT are identified and quantified in a hierarchical order. A hybrid framework with the combination of algebraic solution, Petri Nets, and Monte Carlo simulation is used to increase the efficiency of the solution. The proposed approach uses the advantages of each existing approach in the right place (independent module). We have experimented the proposed approach on five independent hypothetical and industrial examples in which the experiments show the capabilities of the proposed approach facing repeated basic events and non-exponential failure distributions. The proposed approach could provide an approximate solution to DFTs without unacceptable loss of accuracy. Moreover, the use of modularised or hierarchical Petri nets makes this approach more generally applicable by allowing quantitative evaluation of DFTs with a wide range of failure rate distributions for basic events of the tree. / This work was supported in part by the Dependability Engineering Innovation for Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) (DEIS) H2020 Project under Grant 732242, and in part by the LIVEBIO: Light-weight Verification for Synthetic Biology Project under Grant EPSRC EP/R043787/1.

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